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Shadowbaby

Mafia 54: Return of the Cannibal

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[quote name='House Brax' post='1423817' date='Jul 1 2008, 18.58']Since I an not on a team with Whitehill, I cannot answer for him. I am not evil.

I have to say, I am not liking your good role speculation.

We'll learn which night the SK kills on when we wake with 2 deaths...it is alsways that way.[/quote]
Let me get this straight, you know you are not know Whitehill? This must mean you are mafia or SK, its the only possible way of knowing you are not on the same team. :P

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[quote name='House Myatt' post='1423831' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.19']Let me get this straight, you know you are not know Whitehill? This must mean you are mafia or SK, its the only possible way of knowing you are not on the same team. :P[/quote]

Or he is? That is the part I don't know. I have no idea who the other member of my team (the innocents) are. :smoking:

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[quote name='House Brax' post='1423833' date='Jul 1 2008, 19.23']Or he is? That is the part I don't know. I have no idea who the [u]other member[/u] of my team (the innocents) (is). :smoking:[/quote]
That could be a simple typo, what do you think?

Edit because I have to leave.

Brax I am just pulling your leg :D

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[quote name='House Brax' post='1423817' date='Jul 1 2008, 18.58']Since I an not on a team with Whitehill, I cannot answer for him.[/quote]

Of course you can't answer for me, I hired Costayne to write all my posts, not you. :P

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[quote name='House Overton' post='1423699' date='Jul 1 2008, 17.01']Yeh I thought about it - he makes seven statements yet says nothing. Impressive, but a bit...pointless. And that would be a skill that serves you well as a mafiaperson, [b]Grandison[/b][/quote]

Overton, is this vote serious or a joke?

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[quote name='House Whitehill' post='1423857' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.48']Overton, is this vote serious or a joke?[/quote]

I don't think there has been a serious vote yet.

(but you never know with some people)

I'm off for about 10 hours.

[b]remove vote[/b]

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[quote name='House Jordayne' post='1423710' date='Jul 1 2008, 17.09']Yeah, cause we all know no one here makes pointless statements at the beginning of day one, right? :rolleyes:[/quote]
Good to know someone doesn't want to kill me. Or maybe you're just trying to make it look that way.

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[quote name='House Tyrell' post='1423732' date='Jul 1 2008, 17.24']I never understood that one. I would have said that, though the first door you pick has an initial 33% of being the right one, the fact that one of the doors is proved to be wrong would increase your odds. I also would have said that if we admit the fact that each door has an initial 33% chance of being the right one, proving that one of them is wrong should alter either both doors' chances (which is what I'd say) or none (after all, the fact that you picked one door and not the other shouldn't alter the odds of them being the right one). If the second door you pick has 50% chances of hiding the car and the first door has less (the original 33% I assume), then where is the remaining 17%? In the door we already know [i]doesn't[/i] have the car?[/quote]
It's easy to get confused by, I'll try to explain it.

There are 6 combinations. IC = initial choice, Sw = switch, St = stay

IC: goat reveal goat (0 goats left) sw: car st: goat
IC: goat reveal goat (0 goats left) sw: car st: goat
IC: car reveal goat (1 goat left) sw: goat st: car

So in 2 of the possible outcomes, if you switch you get the car. Does that make sense?

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[quote name='House Egen' post='1423763' date='Jul 1 2008, 18.10']Hello[/quote]

Hi


[quote name='House Grandison' post='1423871' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.12']Good to know someone doesn't want to kill me. Or maybe you're just trying to make it look that way.[/quote]

I have no feelings on you either way, I was just pointing out the irony in the original post.

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[quote name='House Jordayne' post='1423885' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.25']I have no feelings on you either way, I was just pointing out the irony in the original post.[/quote]
That means you don't want to kill me. You aren't AGAINST killing me, but you don't want to either.

P.S. English sucks.

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Sorry that I haven't been around much yet. Busy day, and I am exhausted. I will be back after I catch some Zzzzzs.

I promise to post lots at that time.

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[quote name='House Egen' post='1423796' date='Jul 1 2008, 19.39']:rolleyes:[/quote]
:( You're mean.


[quote name='House Myatt' post='1423831' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.19']Let me get this straight, you know you are not know Whitehill? This must mean you are mafia or SK, its the only possible way of knowing you are not on the same team. :P[/quote]
Aha!
Y'know, one of the more memorable mafia games I recall, Brax was evil. I don't trust that purple prancing pony! :pirate:



I'll be here and there for the next 2 or 3 hours. Can't see as anything exciting is going to happen in that time. I'll be back before the day ends, of course.

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15 players remain: Brax, Costayne, Egen, Fell, Grandison, Harte, Jordayne, Myatt, Overton, Reyne, Strong, Tarth, Templeton, Tyrell, Whitehill.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

3 votes for Overton (Fell, Grandison, Jordayne)
2 votes for Costayne (Whitehill, Tyrell)
2 votes for Grandison (Myatt, Overton)
1 vote for Jordayne (Costayne)

7 players have not voted: Brax, Egen, Harte, Reyne, Strong, Tarth, Templeton.


Mod Pebs in signing off. If you speed lynch then your gonna have to wait for Masonity or Shabba to wake up before you get a scene. But don't let that stop you sending in Night action PM's any thoughts or questions you may have. Or you could just PM us your undying love and adoration.

Oh and anyone watching thats not playing if you would like spoiler or spectator access then don't forget to PM Targ. We are not mind sucessfull readers.

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[quote name='House Costayne' post='1423770' date='Jul 1 2008, 18.17']But...er...is your Monty Hall speculation real, or a joke? You can't add probabilities that way. :| That is, you can't simultaneously reassign a 50% probability to switching and a 33% probability to staying. It doesn't work that way. The host’s choice is dependent on your choice. 1/3 of the time you will pick the correct door and Monty gets a choice in which door to reveal. It doesn’t matter which one he picks; that’s 1/3 of the time that staying on your original door will allow you to win. However, you have a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong door initially. In that case, Monty will [i]always[/i] open the other goat door. He has no choice. In that case, switching will let you win. So, 2/3 of the time, switching will allow you to win.[/quote]

[quote name='House Grandison' post='1423876' date='Jul 1 2008, 20.19']It's easy to get confused by, I'll try to explain it.

There are 6 combinations. IC = initial choice, Sw = switch, St = stay

IC: goat reveal goat (0 goats left) sw: car st: goat
IC: goat reveal goat (0 goats left) sw: car st: goat
IC: car reveal goat (1 goat left) sw: goat st: car

So in 2 of the possible outcomes, if you switch you get the car. Does that make sense?[/quote]

Cheers to both of you. Now I understand it perfectly. It does, indeed, make sense. I don't think it was explained well in the film though (I'm thinking about the recent Blackjack one with Kevin Spacey), but maybe it was the dubbing.

[quote name='House Harte' post='1423982' date='Jul 1 2008, 22.35']Aha!
Y'know, one of the more memorable mafia games I recall, Brax was evil. I don't trust that purple prancing pony! :pirate:[/quote]

This seems as good a reason as any to lynch [b]Brax[/b]. It is a well known mathematical fact that things that happen in the past are more likely to happen again in the future.

Joking apart, I'm going to re-read the thread and see if I can find anything even vaguely similar to a clue, but maybe it's just too early for that...

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It's not easy to find the killers when people refrain from discussion. Remember that this is the killers' job. Let's find out what happened in my absence:

- Whitehill lowered his vote per post ratio; still offers one-liners only

- Jordayne is gentle, but is an emotionless person that refuses to post

- Tyrell's post are longer, but he is too busy fondling the ENTER tab to actually contribute

- Grandison is Tyrell's sidekick; so far only fillers

- Harte is waiting for somethig to happen; sucks that we have no ninja, eh?

- Brax is reacting, not acting

- Templeton thinks that a ghost town with some killers and a cannibal is great

- Fell is MIA

- Myatt is the only one who gives me the impression that he actually tries to spark some discussion

- Costayne has been the most active player so far, which says a lot of this game

- Overton already gathered some votes, but remains lighthearted; not very suspicious

- Tarth has promised to post a lot

- Reyne and Strong have both missed the start of the game



Right now it's hard to find some players to trust since most are suspicious. I still have Myatt, Costayne and Overton on my trust-list for now.



My vote is on

[b]Tarth[/b]

to remember him of his promise.

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[quote name='House Egen' post='1423811' date='Jul 2 2008, 01.53']- guard:

Your job is to find the cannibal. That's not me. Try someone else. If there is one kill missing, you either did a damn good job, or some evil guys tried to kill me.[/quote]

'or some evil guys tried to kill me' - what does this mean? It makes it sound like you are the BP but you can't be because why would you reveal this? So...I'm confused. Maybe you're evil. You know if you are, it would help us out a lot if you would just tell us. Saves all this tedious business with 'cases' and 'evidence'

Incidentally, are your minimalist posts due to lack of time, personal style or just giving the game a level of participation appropriate to the level of seriousness? Or is there some other explanation...? :) Ok I take this back due to your above post :)

[quote name='House Whitehill' post='1423857' date='Jul 2 2008, 02.48']Overton, is this vote serious or a joke?[/quote]

It was not serious; I do not find Grandison particularly suspicious. The vote was just punishment for making my brain hurt :(

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Oh yeh I forgot I'll [b]remove vote[/b] because Grandsion did explain that probability thing which is helpful. I now kind of get it, but only if I don't think about it too closely. That's good enough for me.

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