What is the greatest butterfly affect in ASOIAF that would change the world For the Winds of Winter?
My Example: Theon gets closer to Jaime Lannister and dies in the Whispering Wood.
As discussed by both Theon (Theon II, ACOK) and Catelyn Stark, Theon comes very close to fighting Jamie in the Whispering Wood only to have Daryn Hornwood fight the Kingslayer instead and die in the fighting.
If instead Theon had crossed swords with Jamie Lannister, and then inevitably died, the following situations would/wouldn't have happened:
Theon would not have been with the Ironborn when they attacked the North. This causes several strategic differences including that Theon is not there to either ask Dagmer Cleftjaw to attack Tohrren's Square and Theon would not have been there to come up with the scheme to succesfully capture Winterfell. Instead of Ser Rodrick hearing of an attack on Thorren's Square and riding off with 900 men (600 Starks and 300 Cerwyns) he would have recieved the same message to help Deepwood Motte where Asha was attacking. As revealed in Theon's discussion with Dagmer it takes Asha "one thousand men and a moon's turn" to take Deepwoode Motte from the Glovers. So depending on the timing, Ser Rodrick may have even helped to relieve the seige of Deepwood Motte, meaning the Ironborn only would have captured Moat Cailin. Also, a major difference in the North would have been Theon is never in Winterfell to let Ramsay loose, meaning that Ramsay stays a sad prisoner in Winterfell's dungeons posing as Reek with no hope for release.
Snowballing down from all that is that Robb never has to grieve for his "dead" younger brothers Bran and Rickon, who are still safely in Winterfell, meaning that he likely never falls into the arms of Jeyne Westerling. As a result he never offends the Freys and gives Walder Frey the motive and oppurtunity for the Red Wedding. While Walder Frey is obviously a terrible person, in my view he still would have stuck with Robb so that his daughter could become a Queen so long as the "dishonor" of Robb marrying Jeyne and breaking his vows to the Freys never happens. Likewise in Roose Bolton's calculations to betray Robb -which he discusses some of in front of an unknowing Arya in her final chapter in ACOK (Arya X)- he decides to betray Robb because not only are the Lannisters strong after defeating Stannis, but Robb is weak because he has "lost the North" including his seat of Winterfell, his heirs Bran and Rickon are "dead," and he has lost the Freys. None of these occurences would have come to pass if instead Theon had heroically died fighting the Kingslayer.
Bolton also wouldn't have had an heir in Ramsay operating freely in the North to clear his way to Moat Cailin if he succesfully betrayed Robb. Under these circumstances Bolton may not have chosen to act against Robb -yet- meaning that the series of military disasters that occur in ASOS including the Battle of Duskendale and the fighting at the Fords of the Trident probably would not have happened, and without the Freys, Bolton could not have orchestrated the Red Wedding. If Robb's Kingdom was still thriving Stannis may not have come to the defense of the Wall leading a whole bunch of changes to the North and the lands beyond the wall and the struggle with the others including a probable Mance Raider vitctory over the Night's Watch. Maybe Balon Greyjoy would have even attacked the Lannisters for killing his son instead of attacking the North, but let's be honest he never really cared for Theon that much so he probalby would have just attacked the North anyway.
These books are not a real history but a brilliant work of fiction where everything is intertwined, meaning that if one thread is pulled on the whole narrative as we know it unravels. However, I still think it is really interesting to see which threads would have changed it the most and would love to hear everyone's thoughts. I think my thread is a pretty good one, as all it takes is Theon being a couple yards closer to Jamie Lannister for the whole history of Westeros to have gone differently.
Please post any thoughts you might have!
P.S. The farther back in time you go the more powerful the butterfly affect because it has longer to expand and change things. Obviously something like 'Rhaegar defeats Robert at the battle of the Trident' would have the maximum impact because the story we read couldn't have even happened.
