Myshkin

Apparently Bob Dylan isn't answering the Swedish Academy's phone calls. 

Nobody's saying the English language is underrepresented; we're saying that there's been what amounts to an embargo against American writers for more than two decades. And we know why. Horace Engdahl told us. Bob Dylan's selection is not only an insult to American literature, it was intended to be an insult. The Swedish Academy did not so much choose Dylan as ostentatiously not choose Roth, Pynchon, DeLillo or the handful of other deserving American writers.

1 hour ago, OlafK said:

Or Ursula K. LeGuin.

And the prize for Dylan makes sure they never will get a Nobel. Next American laureate due in 20 years :-(

That's the big problem right there. But hey, maybe they'll get enough blowback from this that they'll feel compelled to right a previous wrong next year. Salman Rushdie 2017!

I don't want to sound like I think Dylan is shit; I like him, I like his music, and I recognize his impact. That said I don't think he deserves the Nobel Prize in Literature. But it's not him winning the prize that pisses me off; it's the circumstances under which he won the prize. By giving Dylan the prize this year the Academy is saying unequivocally that two generations of American writers are undeserving. The are saying that American postmodernism and late era American realism as movements are undeserving. Can anyone, even their detractors, honestly say that Bob Dylan deserves the world's biggest literary prize more than Thomas Pynchon, Philip Roth, or Don DeLillo? More than Joyce Carol Oates, Richard Ford, Cormac McCarthy, or John Ashbery?

Not to make light of a person's death, but it's fitting that this announcement came just hours after Dario Fo passed away. Guess the Academy felt it was time to choose another living reminder of just how petty they can be.

I'm extremely disappointed by this selection. It's a lame stunt, and to end the embargo against Americans with this is a fucking insult.

Ladbrokes now lists Bob Dylan at 16/1. Oh and DeLillo's moved up to 8/1, behind only Ngugi, Murakami, and Adunis.

I'd say it's a pretty good bet that DeLillo is on the shortlist. A lot of times the odds move in the final days, but it's usually perennial front runners moving from around 12/1 to 5/1, and that can be explained by last minute betting. DeLillo moving from 66/1 to 12/1 is something else. I'd also say that Ngugi and Adunis are likely on the shortlist as well. 

Here's something else to consider: earlier this year the Academy, after only 27 years of silence, finally officially condemned the fatwa against Rushdie. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Rushdie, but I'll be delighted if it's DeLillo. 

I forgot to mention that the delay in announcing the winner this year is very interesting. Maybe the Academy is just tired of the Peace Prize folks stealing their thunder, but the delay is more likely to mean that the judges are having a difficult time agreeing on a winner. And that means there's a decent chance we get a controversial laureate this year. Could be some one like Adunis, who some might feel is too political, or another Jelinek type writer (who that would be I don't know). Or maybe, just maybe, some members of the Academy are pushing for one of the big name snubs: Pynchon, Roth, Kundera, Rushdie. That last part is probably just wishful thinking though. 

ETA: Just checked Ladbrokes and found that Don DeLillo's odds have gone up considerably.

Only a few days to go and I still have no good guesses on who might win. Only thing I can say is that there seems to be more chatter around Javier Marias this year than in previous years. 

Gotta say I have no feeling at all for where the Academy might go this year. I kinda feel that Ngugi's time has passed, same for Adunis. I also have no faith that they'll finally (or ever) recognize Kundera or Pynchon, and I think it'll be years yet before they're ready to give it to Rushdie. Ko Un is a possibility, as is his countryman Hwang Sok-yong. Though the Academy may feel they already fulfilled their East Asia quota with Mo Yan in 2012. Maybe they're feeling safe enough to go back to Western Europe this year, so I'll put my money on Javier Marias or Antonio Lobo Antunes. Though it's just as likely they'll give it to a poet from the Balkans that only three people have ever heard of. 

So a few days ago Salman Rushdie published his first novel since 2008 (not counting the children's book Luka and the Fire of Life). It's too late for it to affect his chances at this year's Nobel, but maybe (hopefully) it will give him a boost next year.

I've sometimes wondered if the Nobel folks might do an end around and award the Nobel to a playwright or screenwriter so they can simultaneously thumb their nose at the American publishing industry, and yet say: "Fine...here is your American! And look how progressive we're becoming!"  It'll never happen...but the ink spilled over it would be hilarious.

I think it's more likely that they'd give it to a writer who represents a minority culture within the U.S. That way they can give it to an American while continuing to eschew "mainstream" American culture and literary tradition. Someone like Louise Erdrich would fit that criteria. That's not to say that Erdrich isn't a worthy pick in her own right.

I don't think Cormac McCarthy is less popular worldwide than De Lillo or Joyce Carol Oates, or even Pynchon for that matter, as he might be broadly talked about, but not necessarily read. But that's just me.

I think it's more that Pynchon/Roth/DeLillo/Oates have occupied that top tier literary stardom for longer than McCarthy.

I know this is unpopular, but I just don't rate Roth. YMMV, etc etc.

Roth has plenty of detractors, but I still like him. To each their own. But as far as the snubbed Americans go I'd rate Roth below Pynchon, and maybe DeLillo as well.

I think Atwood would be an inspired choice, but I wouldn't expect it.

Since Munro won in 2013 Atwood's shot at a Nobel is pretty slim. Which is a real shame, since I think Atwood is easily one of the most deserving writers alive today.

Don't think the media has much if any influence over the Academy. They seemed unpertubed by the artciles on Murakami as the front-runner for what seems like five years now. Not to mention the issue of Americans in general and Roth in particular coming up every single year since that Engdahl interview.

True. I doubt it would make much of a difference at the highest levels of discussion, but d be interested to see how much more often, if at all, she's been nominated since Ladbrokes first declared her a front runner.
 

 Assia Djebar unfortunately passed away this February.

Damn. RIP.
 

Far whatever reason they merged Booker International with IFFP so now the prize is basically is IFFP with Booker name on it. It's a shame because their selection so far was excellent.

It is a shame. I liked the idea of them competing directly with the Nobel.

Looking around at the other major literary awards I ran into the sad news that the Booker International has given up on competing with the Nobel. They've reconfigured the prize to be awarded annually to a novel in English translation, making it a kind of complementary prize to the regular Booker, rather than being awarded to a writer for their body of work.

Well, the 2015 Nobel is almost upon us.
 
As always it is hard to predict who will win, it is sure won't be someone writing in French (because of the last years winner)

Unless it's Milan Kundera. I still hold out hope.

Going on a hunch I think this year might go to either an author writing in Spanish or Portuguese, meaning primarily someone from Latin America,

I think the biggest names writing in those languages right now are European. Javier Marias and Enrique Vila-Matas in Spanish, and Antonio Lobo Antunes in Portuguese (or Mia Couto from Mozambique).

 

The top of the ladbrokes list so far looks like this:
 
Alexievich  5/1

It amazes me that Ladbrokes continues to give Alexievich such good odds since a Swedish reporter admitted to manipulating her odds by placing a large bet on her two years ago in an attempt to see how much Ladrbokes' system relied on betting. Turns out quite a bit, since Alexievich went from not being listed at all to being one of the front runners based on a single large bet. But that now brings up a new, and very interesting question: how much is the Swedish Academy swayed by public speculation? This will be the third year in a row that Alexievich has been discussed as a front runner, will that have any impact on the voting? Unless she wins we won't know the answer to that for 50 years.

My own predictions:

This is the year I finally give up on Ngugi. I've been calling it for him for two years now, and the Academy keeps making me look like a fool. So this year I'm going with Ko Un, Assia Djebar, or Javier Marias.

I'm really surprised here, I would never have guessed Modiano. I have to admit I know pretty much nothing about him, so I suppose I'll have to go out and get one of his novels (sounds like Missing Persons is the place to start). It now looks like Modiano's name was leaked, which makes me believe Kadare's name was also leaked. I am a bit disappointed though that they went with a European man, and it wasn't Kundera.

Interesting article. In it Horace Engdahl criticizes Western literature (I think he's learned not to specify American literature) for being too commercial, basically saying that grants and fellowships have made western writers' lives too cozy to produce meaningful literature. But what I found most interesting is his praising of Asian and African literature, which bodes well for Ngugi's chances this year.

Yeah, the list this year is uncharacteristically short. I'm surprised that Banville, Vila-Matas and Krasznahorkai are not in there.

Some fresh dynamics Alexievich is up to 6/1 (not really surprising, I doubt Swedish newspaper websites are that widely read), Adonis and Modiano join Kadare at 10/1, Handke and Roth join Fosse at 12/1, Peter Nadas rises to 14/1. Djebar, Oates and Kundera fell to 14/1, 16/1 and 25/1 respectively. new additions are Karel Schoeman , Paul Muldoon and Nawal El Saadawi, the later going as high as 20/1.

Thinking a bit more about this, I'm pretty sure last year there was inside information that woman is going to win it, or something suggesting that it is likely (like high number of women in final shortlist), hence Munro, Alexievich, Djebar and Oates rising high towards the end. This year seems to be unusually many poets suddenly appearing in the betting lists, starting with Bei Dao and now with El Saadawi, the usual suspect Adonis of course rises too.I guess we'll see how they fare in the upcoming days, might be someone heard the winner writes poetry or there is poet on the shortlist.

El Saadawi's odds are interesting, coming out of nowhere as they did. The Swedish Academy won't choose a winner until the day before the announcement, so any leaks will be about the shortlist. I'd bet that Kadare's on the shortlist, but unless he wins this year, we won't know for 50 years.

What about Ursula K Leguin? Just won a National Book Award, writes genre, is American...................................I'll leave quietly.

Fair or not Leguin's got no chance.

Kadare on Ladbrokes' list now at 10/1 says to me there might well have been a leak about him being on the shortlist. Although it could also just be that someone saw him listed at 8/1 on Unibet and decided to take advantage of the fact that Ladbrokes didn't have him listed by placing a big bet on him. What seems strangest to me is that Ladbrokes didn't have odds on him at all until today. I mean, it's Ismail Kadare.

I was afraid the odds this year would continue to be stale till the end, bu at lats some dynamics!Apart for Ngugi, Alexievich moved up to 10/1, Noteboom to 25/1 and Handke to to 16/1 and Richard Ford rather bizarrely entered the list at 33/1. All in all I doubt some inside information is involved, people put two and two together and figured out it's probably going to be Africa's year.

The only odds I'd suspect of being affected by a leak are Kadare's on Unibet. Nooteboom and Handke are perennial favorites, and as the announcement gets closer bets will start getting placed on them. Alexievich's name came out of nowhere late last year and created quite a stir, and I think that's the biggest thing affecting her odds this year.

Ngugi has pushed Murakami out of the top spot on Ladbrokes' list, now at 4/1 odds. Unibet (whose primary market is northern Europe) still have Murakami slightly over Ngugi, but the interesting thing is they have Ismail Kadare at 8/1, even though Ladbrokes doesn't have him listed at all. Of course these betting sites don't generally know anything more than we do, and rely too much on public speculation (as evidenced by the odds on Murakami and Alexievich), but still they're a good resource in that any leaks will mostly likely be represented in the betting odds.

Ngugi's now at 6/1 odds, behind only Murakami (who's been the top spot for three years running). Svetlana Alexievich is still being taken seriously at 12/1 odds, even though it's been revealed that the only reason Ladbrokes listed odds for her at all last year was because a reporter, in an attempt to test Ladbrokes' system, placed a large bet on her. It's hard to take Ladbrokes' odds seriously since they're based solely on bets placed (hence Joyce Carol Oats still being at 12/1), but it's also hard to discount them entirely since inside information inevitably turns into bets.

I too have hopes that Kundera's new novel will push him over the top. I've heard really good things about it, but will have to wait until I believe late 2015 for the English translation.

I read an article last year by a guy who set out to test Ladbrokes' oddsmaking system. Among other things he placed a large bet on Svetlana Alexievich, who after the bet went from not even being listed to being a frontrunner. So I don't much believe in her chances.