Free Northman Reborn

Maybe the white haired woman Bran saw in his last vision? Kind of the High Priestess of the Others? The same woman who was the corpse bride of the 13th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

Who would the tall, terrible bride with hands of white fire be?

Wow. Interesting interpretation. And for the first time it gets me thinking that the Others may approach this war more strategically than simply trying to mindlessly roll on South with their zombie hordes. If they are able to have someone like Euron start weakening humanity from the opposite end of the continent, then it shows a lot more strategic vision and intelligence than most people gave them credit for, before. And it then begs the question, if they can use Euron for that purpose, why not other key players in the series to date? And that immediately makes one start considering potential candidates who have played a major role in weakening Westeros just before this new Winter arrives. People like Baelish, Varys etc.

Well, George isn't wasting any time culling the PoV characters, like he promised. I assume this is either the last or second last chapter for Aeron. We might see him again as he witnesses the coming battle while tied to the prow of Silence. And with Aeron dead, does this finally kill the idea that Theon is destined for a return to glory at a repeat Kingsmoot? Not that it was ever very likely, given Theon's condition.

Is it confirmed that Euron has already sacked the Arbor? Was that the burning castle Aeron saw?

My guess was that Aeron, in hindsight and despair, given the current situation, is interpreting the comet as signalling the end for the true followers of the Drowned God, now that Euron has usurped the Seastone chair.

I wasn't quite clear on that part from the handwritten notes I thought Leyton's ships were on their way to engage Euron now. Where did you see that he sent them away?

No, I immediately went to check the Greyjoy family tree on the Wiki, and there are a bunch of other brothers and halfbrothers, some of whom died in their infancy and childhood years. Thanks to Euron, I guess.

Wow. They should have chosen this chapter years ago when they chose Arriane instead. Far from just being flashbacks to Aeron's history with Euron, and some priest stuff on the Iron Isles, it is actually moving the plot forward in real time, with up to date events with Euron. Brilliant stuff.

Here's the link to someone who made 5 pages of handwritten notes at the reading. Would be great if someone could decipher it all and type it up. https://twitter.com/arhythmetric/status/737014268189650944

So I'm hearing some really intense reports from George's Balticon reading of the Damphair chapter from Winds. Wow. If the reports are accurate, it contains loads of massive plot details. Enough to influence a number of theories and provide lots of food for discussion. I don't want to quote secondhand reports until they are confirmed, but if true, it gives us great insight into what Euron is up to and what's been happening in the Reach since we last heard from there. And man, some messed up cruelty there too. Anyway, just wanted to get the discussion going. Waiting for some confirmed updates.

Interesting. Martin must have more in store for him, else his entire plotline was a monumental farce. I must say, your Cersei theory has one thing going for it. If Cersei marries Euron, then Victarrion could end up being the Valonquar. And we know how badly Victarrion wants to kill the wife of his big brother Euron. Didn't he choke the life out of his own wife, after she slept with Euron, as much as it pained him? Pretty much exactly the fate prophecied for Cersei, isn't it? But then, that would go against so much of what we expect to happen - such as "dumb as a stump" Victarrion dying a fiery death in the near future.

Lord Varys I agree that Euron is set up as a major villain of the 2nd half of the series. But I am interested to hear just how powerful you think he is. His entire pitch to the Ironborn at the Kingsmoot is based on the Dragonhorn and the mastery of dragons. In terms of manpower, I was being generous when I ascribed 20k men to his forces in the Reach. In truth, the entire Ironborn strength is around 25k by the maximum estimates around, although I believe Ran puts them closer to 20k. But these Ironborn have already suffered some losses in the North - even if it is only a couple thousand men or so, every campaign comes with losses to disease, battle, storms at sea etc. So call it 23000 men left, that gathered at the Kingsmoot after the Northern campaign. From there, the entire Ironfleet was dispatched to Meereen. That's their 100 largest ships. Each likely carrying at least 100 men. So that's 10000 of the 23000 men off to Meereen - of which half were scattered to the four corners of the earth by storms along the way. If Euron is lucky, he has maybe 13000 men in the Reach. But likely it is closer to 10000 in my view. Lord Hightower on his own can raise more men than that. If Euron doesn't have dragons, he is only going to be a nuisance - and a temporary one at that - to the Lords of the Reach. Sure, a surprise attack might cause some serious havoc, as would a series of multiple small scale raids along the coast. But even if he takes a few keeps, it is simply not feasible to think that Reach lords are going to swear allegiance to his pitiful force en masse. And who is seriously going to form an allegiance with him? He is not even a powerful ally, going by Westerosi standards. Any of the Kingdoms could raise more men than him, even at this late point in the story. As for the Redwynne fleet. It is more powerful than the Royal fleet. And without the Iron Fleet I seriously doubt Euron has a chance of defeating it. He has only tiny 20-30 man ships left, with the Iron Fleet off in Meereen. And even if he DOES defeat the Redwynne fleet. So what? It still leaves him woefully underpowered on land. Euron needs dragons, or else he is a non-entity in the bigger scheme of things.

In my view Euron's purpose is to serve as a distraction for the Tyrells. He is going to ravage the Western Reach with his 20,000 Reavers, burning some settlements, razing some towns and tying up probably 30k Reach troops or so. I see Aegon achieving a decisive victory over the Tyrells at Storm's End. That will be what brings Dorne to his cause. After that, I feel there is a need for another great victory - this time involving Dornish forces - over the Royal armies, before Aegon takes King's Landing. An interesting question, I guess, is whether the entire Dragonhorn sub-plot was just a waste of time - which would mean that Euron is a delusional idiot for even attempting to take the Iron Throne - or whether the Horn has already been bound to Euron and will summon Viserion or Rhaegal to his side when it is sounded. Perhaps even both. If he has a dragon (or two), I guess the nature of the threat he poses changes somewhat. If he doesn't get a dragon, well, then his plot becomes rather ridiculous, doesn't it.

Personally I think George is about to decimate the "so many" Tyrells. And not in the original Roman sense of the word, but in the common usage meaning of it. The 100,000 (a number which I am not fully convinced of in any case considering the Stormland host that combined with the Tyrells in Renly's force to get him to his 80k, as well as Renly's tendency to exxagerate), is likely to be around 20k once Euron, Dorne, the Golden company and various Reach rebel lords are done with the Tyrells. Not to mention the Grey Plague which is just waiting in the wings to sweep through the thightly packed and oh so ripe Reach lands. All producing tens of thousands of ripe corpses, ready for the Others to raise into their army.

That's quite a leap ahead, I would say. I agree that Cersei's best course of action is to flee to Casterly Rock, where she is totally secure against almost any threat. From there she can rebuild her strength. I just don't know if that's going to happen. She won't leave Tommen behind, and I don't know if she will be able to flee King's Landing with Tommen in tow. If she does, it removes a lot of legitimacy from those that remain behind. The Euron link I find a bit more tenuous. I don't quite see it, yet.

Interesting speculation. I agree with much of it. For Cersei to rule, you need a situation where the Tyrells still support the Throne, but they are diminished in King's Landing. So the way this can happen is if Mace rushes off to Storm's End, and the other half of their forces are forced to race to face Euron - maybe due to him sacking Oldtown or some such important conquest. I agree with you that if Cersei doesn't have the Tyrells, then Aegon will be in King's Landing in no time. I disagree about her position in King's Landing, though. In the absence of Tyrell opposition, who is there to oppose her? Who is on the Small Council with any authority? Kevan is dead. Pycelle is dead. Who is left with any power, other than Mace? If he is out of the way, then Cersei is the most powerful person left. Especially if she has Tommen in hand, Qyburn's covert support, and unGregor as her personal bodyguard.

I think Cersei emerged from the claws of the Faith as a much more dangerous foe than when she went into their dungeon. That last chapter where she appears subdued when talking to Kevan seems awfully ominous. If anything, she will follow a more subtle approach going forward. Qyburn is loyal to her personally. She has unGregor. With Kevan dead, she is now the head of House Lannister, commanding all of its gold and all of its men. She is going to rule through Tommen. Especially if Margaery is out of the way. The Tyrells have the western half of their realm under threat from the Ironborn - with some major southron towns about to be sacked if foreshadowing is anything to go by. They are about to have Aegon and Dorne invade from the east possibly threatening even Highgarden. The Tyrell presence at King's Landing is about to drop significantly. And if Mace Tyrell perishes at Storm's End, well, I suspect the Queen of Thorns wants nothing to do with King's Landing and would rather take all her men back to the Reach and leave the Game of Thrones to others. Especially if the Reach is threatened on all sides by new foes. In this chaos, a more subtle Cersei can make great gains, ruling through Tommen as her puppet.

I think it is clear Cersei wins her trial by combat. Else the hype around unGregor will be anti-climactic. Especially after the way in which the hype around the original Gregor proved anti-climactic when the unknown entity of Oberyn defeated him.This time Gregor has to live up to his reputation. So Gregor wins the trial by combat, and Cersei is restored. This ties in with Varys's whole plot to get Cersei back in power to continue creating chaos. So I think the Mercy Chapter gives us glimpses of the situation in King's Landing AFTER the trial, with Cersei back in power. Note also that Arya's timeline is significantly advanced compared to the rest of the chapters, so again, the Mercy chapter shows us the future rather than the present situation in King's Landing. In essence, then, the entire drama with the Faith and Cersei's trial was merely a time-buying ploy by Martin, to explain why the Lannisters and Tyrells were not able to press their advantage while the Starks were laid low in the North, while the Riverlands were in chaos and while Aegon was still on his way to Dorne. For all intents and purposes, Cersei will be back in the position she was before the Faith arrested her, with the main difference that two or three books will have gone by in the interim, allowing other plotlines to catch up with the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Basically - to give the children time to learn what they were supposed to learn during the 5 year gap. So Cersei is back in power, only for Dorne to enter the game, the Northern plot to reach its climax, Sansa to make her move from the Vale, the Riverlands to revolt against the Freys, the Tyrells to fall to Euron in the west and to Aegon in the east. The Faith militant story was just a time-buying mechanism, which Martin was forced to include. It was not the downfall of Cersei as was thought at the time of Feast. She needs to be the Queen that is brought down by someone younger and more beautiful, when the time comes.

Yeah, well, I've read that view, but it is nonsense, quite frankly. Rhaegar's kids were still the heirs, else Jon's birth mystery is meaningless. I can only assume that Aerys felt that an adult heir was more appropriate than a baby in such a time of peril, and named Visesrys for the sake of practicality. But clearly Aegon was meant to follow Rhaegar on the Throne, if not for the crisis. In any case. Just because Aerys named Viserys as heir does not make Daenerys Viserys' heir. He never named her his heir. The true line of succession would run through Aegon, if he was legitimate. Besides, Targaryens overlook female heirs in favour of males, even if the female is closer in the line of succession - which Daenerys isn't in any case, as explained above.

I do wonder how Daenerys is going to justify to herself that she deserves the Iron Throne over her brother's legitimate heir. It can only be a case of her choosing to view him to be an imposter to justify her deeds in her own mind. But really, if she was about the rightful Targaryen claiming the Throne, Aegon is that rightful Targaryen, unless there is reason to believe that he is not the true Aegon. Else she is just another usurper trying to claim the Throne by force.

However, the reason Dorne will stick with Aegon once Daenerys arrives is because news of Quentyn's death will have set Daenerys up squarely as their enemy. I mean, surely you must agree that the only worthwhile reason to include the otherwise pointless Quentyn storyline is to justify Dorne siding against Daenerys.

Nice to read the chapter firsthand. So much more nuance to pick up than when relying on secondhand reports from a reading. Much is becoming quite clear in the Aegon/Dorne storyline. Firstly, it is quite obvious that Arriane is going to join Dorne to Aegon's cause. Likely through a betrothal. The entire Quentyn plotline had the sole purpose of alienating Dorne from Daenerys. Dorne will join with Aegon, giving him 20k-30k extra spears for his campaign. This will happen after the Golden Company has demonstrated in front of Arriane's eyes, in all its professional efficiciency, how it anihilates the Tyrell army on the field of battle. Which brings me to my second point. This idea that Randyl Tarly will turn cloak is fantasy. Aegon needs a decisive victory on the field of battle, and the battle below the walls of Storms End will be it. I don't think Tarly will lead it, because that would reduce Aegon's chances of victory significantly. Also, it won't be remotely close to the full Tyrell strength that will be descending on Storm's End. Mace will keep 20k or so at King's Landing, Another significant portion of the Tyrell strength will be off fighting Euron, and this will be a fast reaction force, moving at haste to reach Storm's End. I expect 10,000 -15,000 Tyrell soldiers at most. With a sound battle strategy the Golden Company can take those odds. After all, we have been hearing about their vaunted reputation for years now. It is time for them to live up to it. They will open up a can of whipass on the Tyrells in this battle, I have no doubt. Thirdly, regarding Storm's End. I'm sure we read somewhere before that Aegon took Storm's End by subterfuge. With hints of the "Mummer's Dragon" theme involved. How large was Rowan's force below the walls of Storm's End? The wiki says it is only a token force. Could Aegon not have disguised his forces as Baratheons in service of Stannis, attacking and destroying Lord Rowan's besieging army. The defenders would then have opened up the gates to their saviours, only to find out too late that it is in fact Aegon Targaryen's forces who they have let into the keep. Lastly, there is really no reason to dispute Winterfell's reputation as one of the strongest castles in the Seven Kingdoms. As Werthead pointed out, it has massive defensive fortifications, and its fall to Theon was by guile, not by force. It is without a doubt the strongest castle in the North, and we know that the Dreadfort - which is probably the second strongest Northern castle - held out for 2 years under siege from the forces of House Stark in years gone by, until the Boltons were starved out. Winterfell must therefore be even stronger than that.