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Free Northman Reborn

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  1. Lol. Hang on. Is your argument that because I supported Morrison’s stance on one issue (the nuclear submarine debacle), I should support his actions in relation to EVERY OTHER issue by default, however unrelated? Now THAT is the epitome of the tribalist nature of the discourse we are facing in today’s society. Back your faction, no matter the issue? Nope. I don’t subscribe to that, thank you very much. That is intellectually poor.
  2. As the saying goes: The problem with Australia is not that it is run by the descendants of prisoners, but that it is run by the descendants of prison guards.
  3. Australian Tall Poppy Syndrome is a real thing. Of COURSE people of great achievement should be treated differently from Bruce Bogan off the street. Go win 20 Grand Slams then you too can get that special treatment. Meritocracy, folks. Branch Covidians absolutely do suffer from Mass Formation Psychosis. Reactions have gone beyond tribal. Ridiculous.
  4. The ~1% rule applies to a medieval society with an agricultural peasant base that makes up perhaps 90%-95% of the population. They can mobilize that 1% fraction for war. This does not apply to societies like the Dothraki where Khal Drogo’s Khalasar supposedly had 40k warriors out of a total population of 100k (not sure Martin though that one through), or the Ironborn - where George specifically stated that they raise a much higher proportion of warriors than the mainland, agricultural kingdoms. Hence their fairly large armed capability compared to their much smaller comparative population. In the case of the wildlings we are explicitly told that Mance’s host is not an army, it is a migration of an entire population. So the ~100k Jon saw along the Milkwater was the entire wildling population. Men, women, old people and children. We are told about 30-40k attacked the Wall. After that host was smashed by Stannis, it dispersed. Many died in the cold and from the Others - if Varamyr’s example is a fairly typical one. Bowen Marsh counts just over 3000 passing through the Wall. Around 10,000 men, women and children appear to be stranded at Hardhome with little hope of survival. And another few thousand are gathered with the Weeper trying to cross at the Shadow Tower. From what we’ve seen North of the Wall, those not yet South of the Wall are pretty much doomed, but even if a small number make it through, I doubt more than 10,000 living wildlings in total will make it into the North in the end. That’s less than 0.25% of the North’s current population. Insignificant, in the bigger scheme of things.
  5. All the Free Folk south of the Wall together number barely 3000 (including women and children). Those north of the Wall are as good as dead. By comparison, there are between 4 million and perhaps 6 million people in the North. Who the wildlings crown as King and who they ally with is inconsequential.
  6. Scale often gets lost in these discussions. House Karstark is one of the great Northern Houses. They rule perhaps 150k-300k people and mobilize an army of around 3000 men. Like the Manderlys, they will have up to a dozen or so petty lords sworn to them in addition to scores of masterly houses (landed knights in southron terminology) House Then have 300 men. And have a total population south of the Wall of less than 1000. So in terms of scale, they are on a similar level to one of the petty lords in service to House Karstark. Therefore, the most realistic outcome is that their marriage ties through a daughter of House Karstark allows them to become a new petty lordship sworn to Karhold. They get a new keep and a patch of land somewhere in the Karstark lands, and get to settle as a Karstark vassal house in peace.
  7. So what’s the latest. Is George even writing the book anymore?
  8. Seems to me Turnbull signed a bad deal in 2016, and Morrison acted in Australia’s interest to correct that in 2021.
  9. Actually, one of your points is that the reason for wanting nuclear subs is bullshit, which is clearly not the case. Another of your points is that the French could have provided fit-for-purpose nuclear subs too, which again, they clearly could not given the refurbishment requirement.
  10. The French nuclear reactors required refurbishment during the sub’s lifetime, which Australia is not able to do due to the ban on nuclear technology in the country, whereas the US and UK reactors do not. So no, the French nuclear subs were not suitable. And it is pretty obvious that a diesel sub with a mere 500km underwater range is not fit for purpose for a country with a 10,000km plus coastline. Nuclear subs by comparison can circumnavigate the globe without surfacing. It was clearly the right military decision.
  11. Actually, the nuclear subs are absolutely more advantageous to Australian military capability. Even Labour agrees with that. Secondly, Australia, the UK and the US had agreed (and documented) a very clear communication plan on the matter, which entailed France being informed on 16 September about the outcome, which is how Australia played it. Unfortunately, Biden then turned around and threw Australia under the bus, for one of three reasons: 1. Cognitive decline which made him genuinely forget the agreement. 2. His officials keeping him in the dark about it, or 3. Sacrificing Australia in order to repair US relations with France. Either way, Biden is the one who comes off in an extremely bad light here, not Morrison.
  12. Been following the submarine saga with interest. Why does the left wing Aussie press have such an inferiority complex when it comes to Australia’s standing in the world? They should be rallying around Morrison, telling Macron to get screwed with his inferior submarines. Instead, they are immediately alarmed by any perceived disgruntlement the French might have with Morrison acting in Australia’s military interest. Aussies need to grow some self confidence instead of trying to avoid offence at all costs. Australia is a major power and should act accordingly.
  13. What’s with the Australasian paranoia? Why do they view case numbers with so much more alarm than any other Western nations, including the Scandinavian countries? Are they that much more risk averse as a society? I mean, Dan Andrews and Mark McGowan are just obsessive when it comes to this issue. Much like Ardern. What makes them so different from a societal perspective?
  14. Really sad we didn’t get to see history made. Oh well, that’s sport. 3 out of 4 Slams is as good a year as most players can only dream of achieving. Enjoy your rest, and refocus on the Australian Open, Novak. (If TaliDan allows it to proceed in 2022, that is.)
  15. The order just stops NASA from working with and paying SpaceX until 1 Nov. It doesn’t stop SpaceX from doing whatever they want at their own risk. Meaning they aren’t slowing down for one minute. Come 1 Nov and the next milestone payment will probably flow their way. Heck, they might even reach orbit during the “stop work” order!
  16. Well, he’s in good company. Neither Federer nor Sampras ever won Olympic gold either. Anyway, he took it too lightly, playing mixed doubles as well against the advice of his coaching team. Onwards to the US Open, and calendar Grand Slam.
  17. Just a reminder of comparative scale here: SpaceX Starship on the left, Blue Origin’s New Shepard 2nd from the left.
  18. Well this show was the best thing I’ve seen in years. Until they went and destroyed it with Game of Thrones level messed up depravity. Talk about character assassination. Damn. No coming back from this for Karen. And if Ed ever takes her back he loses any self respect she left him after this humiliating betrayal. Ludicrous writing. Bold and Beautiful level shit. I reckon I’m done.
  19. Just leaving this here. The rocket that will bring on the space revolution is almost here. It will change the course of humanity.
  20. @Ran I'm just watching your and Linda's Youtube discussion around Bran as King. Of course, I agree that Bran as King makes no sense from a books perspective, and I don't think that this will be the case. However, I find some of your arguments in this debate a bit questionable. Specifically, your opposition to the idea of Bran making it out of the Cave. I honestly don't understand why THIS of all things appears so unlikely to you. You point out some far out ways for him to make his way back to the South, almost as if to demonstrate how implausible it is. These include a dragon flying him back, or him possessing someone else's body and therefore only making it back in spirit (that other body variously being Hodor, Jon Snow or even Euron). Honestly, why go to such lengths? There are at least two, maybe three much easier ways for him to make it South, none of which involves a dragon giving him a lift or him possessing Euron. First scenario: The journey up was very difficult, true, but the Bran that journeyed North was a crippled, powerless boy, while the Bran who will be returning will be the Last Greenseer. We see the Cave is warded, so is it really a leap to think that Bran could ward his party's campsite every night on the way back to the Wall? You say they had no food on the way up, having to resort to cannibalism. Well, on the way back Bran could skinchange any animal for a thousand miles around, and have it come and lie down at their campsite to be slaughtered for food. So option 1 to get back to the Wall would be in the same way they came before, just with Bran using his magic to protect them from the Others. Scenario 2: We know there is a fast flowing river below the Cave. We also know of Gendel and Gorne's story. Is it that big a leap to have them take this underground river South, to emerge either much closer to the Wall, or maybe on the other side altogether? Certainly a more plausible theory than Bran skinchanging Euron, or having a dragon come fetch him. Scenario 3: The Cave may be quite far from the Wall, but it would seem to be much closer to Hardhome. Could the backdoor be pretty close to the shrieking caves at Hardhome? From where a ship could pick him up, at the right moment? Again, this isn't any more implausible than a dragon fetching Bran etc. So in short, these are three scenarios that provide quite a plausible way for Bran to get back from the Cave, without invoking extremely weird hypothesis. I think it was always obvious that Bran was heading back south after his Training Montage. And am on record for stating as much. Of course, I still don't believe he will be King of Westeros. But this brings me to the other issue I have with your and Linda's discussion. You briefly discuss options of Bran being King Beyond the Wall, or King of the Children or even King of the Weirwood Throne instead of King of Westeros. But why not the most obvious scenario of all - Bran as King in the North? If the Show stuck to the truth by making the North independent, then Sansa as Queen in the North above a returned and live Bran is illogical, and clearly a flawed outcome. What would make much more sense is Bran back as King indeed, but King in the North, not King of Westeros. That would even combine some of your other options, namely that Bran could be both King in the North, and King on a weirwood Throne, in Winterfell's godswood. Perhaps below the Godswood, in a chamber among the Heart Tree's roots, similar to Bloodraven's Throne in the Cave. That really is the most logical outcome. 1. It shows how he will be accepted - given that no southron lords will need convincing as he is the rightful Stark heir to Winterfell, and only the Northern lords matter in that regard. 2. It shows why he would be held in high esteem as a greenseer of the Old Gods, given that his realm worships the religion to which he is the High Priest, effectively. So no need to convince the Seven, their septons and their millions of southron followers. 3. It deals with his inability to have an heir - as far from needing to elect a new heir once he dies, either Rickon or Sansa and then Arya will be his heirs by default. 4. It also deals with the weird setup of how the North gets independence, but somehow the rightful King in the North becomes King in the South, which is just non-sensical. In this case the North gets independence, gets ruled by the rightful King in the North, and the South either chooses someone else, or they all become independent too. (Which would make sense given that the Iron Throne is apparently getting melted down). 4. And I have already addressed the non-issue of the supposed difficulty of how he gets back from the Cave. As I demonstrated, there are fairly easy, and not at all implausible - ways of getting him back to Winterfell. I am only halfway into your and Linda's discussion, but so far it seems you are steering very far from the above, most obvious, solution to the whole predicament. And I can't understand why?
  21. The North’s independence is supported pretty clearly by the books. As in, should it happen there will be a lot of references in the books which in hindsight makes it an outcome with a strong and foreshadowed buildup. Much more so than Bran becoming King of Westeros, that’s for sure.
  22. Interesting idea. Not impossible. To me the main challenge would be the series would then resume 5 years into Winter, which means everyone should pretty much be starving by then.
  23. Nope he says it will take Bran some time to learn the greenseeing arts. Specifically, when Bran asks how long, he says maybe a year, maybe 5. Quite similar to the originally planned 5 year gap, wouldn’t you say...And likely similar to the amount of time George originally had planned for Arya to spend learning assassin skills with the Faceless Men, Sansa to spend learning politics with Littlefinger in the Vale and Jon learning leadership skills at the Wall. Edit And Dany having her Dragons grow in the East.
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