Alexander Nevsky vs Hosteen Frey

[Nihlus]

So, the upcoming battle between Stannis and the Frey/Bolton/Manderly/Karstark vanguard seems set to go in his favor. His subordinates informed him about Roose's plans (and his planning had already rendered said plans ineffective), he captured the Karstarks before the main engagement, he has an effective ice lake trap set up for the Freys, and the Manderlys will likely not fight him at all when they smell blood in the water and see him annihilating the Frey force. This battle seems to be partly based on the famous Battle on the Ice (GRRM often refers to the Stannis-Bolton confrontation as "the Battle of Ice"), where the Novgorod prince Alexander Nevsky defeated the forces of the Teutonic Order and Denmark on Lake Peipus.

Just for fun, how would the historical armies stack up to their ASOIAF counterparts? Say that Roose's vanguard, instead of engaging Stannis at the crofter's village, engages Nevsky's Novgorod force on Lake Peipus. No one in either army will question why this is happening; they will just go along with the premise and try to annihilate each other.

Composition

Novgorod: 5,000 men*

-1,000 druzhinas

-2,000 Novgorod militia

-600 horse archers.

-1,400 Finno-Ugrian tribesmen

Bolton: 3,300 men

-2,000 Freys (500 knights, 1,500 pikemen, archers, mounted bowmen, and freeriders)

-450 Karstarks (400 spearmen, 40 archers, 10 armored mounted lancers)

-300 Manderlys (100 knights, 200 men-at-arms)

-550 Boltons (seemingly half mounted, half afoot; seemingly several hours behind the rest of the host)

Scenario 1: The only forces that engage the Russian host are the Freys.

Scenario 2: The whole Bolton-loyal force engages the Russian host. Assume that, instead of trying to pull a backstab in the enemy army, the Karstark men are with the rest of the host.

*According to "Lake Peipus 1242: Battle of the Ice", by David Nicolle.