AGOT MAFIA 47

[House Sunglass]

Just checking in. I need to read what happenedduring my sleep, but I will need a few hours

because it look like my presence is requested at the police station

[House Westerling]

Just checking in. I need to read what happenedduring my sleep, but I will need a few hours

because it look like my presence is requested at the police station

It's already confession time?

[House Dayne]

He could have prepared a fake claim. Symps do that all the time, it is known.

* waits for Norcross to vote for Prester *

Ah, true enough. It would not have been a strong claim regardless the faction it was coming from..because it could be coming from any faction.

Just checking in. I need to read what happenedduring my sleep, but I will need a few hours

because it look like my presence is requested at the police station

[House Frey]

I'll try to be sensible and I hope there would be some seed of sanity in what I am going to say :-)

Let's imagine Jast had really left a message having 'Witch' encrypted in it and addressed for someone. What could he have done it for? That might be saying either he's a witchhunter himself or he's calling for some witchhunter to react.

As I read further, I understood no one actually knows if there is a peaceful witchhunter role in the game. So it is rather risky to pretend there is one, because later the lack of this role can be calculated using the number of victims, info from other roles and so on. This means, that's a message somehow connected to FM witchhunters only.

Can that be a message pretending he's a Faceless Man witchhunter trying to introduce himself to someone? No, because everyone who's interested in him — that means sympathisers, killers of the same clan — do know him anyway.

The single possibility left is that he's actually trying to catch an attention some witchhunter which gives us the solution: he's a sympathiser-soldier looking for his master.

I can't absolutely be sure about if there was a real intention of leaving the code. But it doesn't seem too possible that a word witch, which does mean something in the game, would come out of 26^5 variations which could've occured here.

Uh. That's the longest deduction I've ever made :-D However, I'm dead sure that will seem really absurd to everyone, but I managed to convince myself in it, so I vote for Jast.

Edit: Nice. While I've been writing they said innocent witchhunter does exist. So my thesis bites the dust. Pity. But at least I tried :-(

[House Connington]

See - I told you I thought Jast was symping me. Too bad I'm not an FM.

All of the connections between me and Jast were mainly Jast responding to me, therefore out of my control. Yes, I joked around with him, I do things like that and it's not the first time it's put me in the spotlight. I think at one point I said I mainly agreed with things Jast was saying, and I did. Jast has played pretty reasonably - enough so to make him seem scummy to some people before (I think) the code was pulled out. I've been going back and forth on him because I'm uneasy about his responses to me. All of this is out of my control because it's based on Jast's actions, not mine. I can't respond to that.

Jast is off my list right now because I think it would be a waste of time to take him out. Let the FM ponder the problem for a few days and then we'll see where we're at.

[Magic Mirror]

Why do I keep thinking synnp ?

[House Connington]

Norcross - he could be an Innocent witchhunter laying the framework for an eventual reveal. He could be a symp preparing a false claim. He could be an evil hunter, hoping to pave the way for a claim at innocent hunter. (I think it would be very unbalanced if there were two hunters out there, therefor an evil hunter might bank on that too). If an evil hunter claims innocence and coordinates his kills with his FM partner, there is no end to the havoc they could cause. Especially if they kill the same night, which would be horrific.

There are so many permutations and endless uncertainty in these role combinations. Gah - my head hurts.

[House Corbray]

I don't think we should lynch Jast. I actually think keeping him alive (a heal maybe?) would be of use to us.

If he's a WF he can kill killers, and even if he's an evil WF he'll still want to kill the killers in the other team. Us innocents, on the other hand, he can't harm.

Going for somebody who looks like he's Jast's master, on the other hand, I would completely approve of.

[House Frey]

Prester — that makes logics pretty pointless then. As far as I can judge on possible cases during the game, there can be absolutely no confidence about someone's role before he's dead :-(

[House Connington]

Prester — that makes logics pretty pointless then. As far as I can judge on possible cases during the game, there can be absolutely no confidence about someone's role before he's dead :-(

Now you're getting it. Don't forget - we won't know after they are dead either.

ETA: There is logic, but it's not based on absolutely knowing what people's roles are. It's based on how they act/react during the game.

[House Connington]

I'm gonna urge people to vote for players they think are playing scummy. It's all well and good to look for connections and speculate on who's a symp, who's a master - but you shouldn't vote for someone who displays no scummy behavior aside from symp/master connections.

We always look for them, we're most always wrong. If the only reason you are voting for me is because 'I am Jast's master', please think about it and ask yourself if you would suspect me if that connection wasn't there. I think the only suspicious behavior anyone has accused me of aside from the 'connection', is my hiding in plain sight with my joking around earlier. If someone has another reason they don't like me, I'd like to hear it and have a chance to respond.

[House Targaryen]

Hello in there.

16 players remain: Ambrose, Caron, Elesham, Hasty, Inchfield, Jast, Lake, Lefford, Norcross, Oakheart, Prester, Sarsfield, Sunglass, Uller, Upcliff, Wynch.

9 votes are needed for a conviction or 8 to go to night.

night: 1 vote (Ambrose)

Prester: 4 vote (Uller, Oakheart, Hasty, Wynch)

Upcliff: 1 vote (Jast)

Sarsfield: 1 vote (Sunglass)

Lefford: 1 vote (Lake)

Caron : 1 vote (Lefford)

Jast: 2 vote (Elesham, Norcross)

Sunglass: 1 vote (Prester)

Hasty: 1 vote (Inchfield)

Incfield: 2 vote (Caron, Sarsfield)

1 players have not voted: Upcliff.

You have a bit less than 14h30 left.

[Lady Gaga]

Prester - you left out that Jast could also be a RI who left a simple code in the hopes it would be discovered and he might take the bullet for a rolled innocent.

Personally I think we should lynch someone other than Jast today. He's in the open so he'll probably eventually be lynched or night-killed... my money is on the later.

It would be nice to get on with the game a bit. In the interest of progress why doesn't everyone give their top 3 suspects? Mine:

Inchfield - His code reveal just doesn't sit right with me. There's really no reason for an innocent to reveal that code on day one as it just attracts attention to someone who could potentially be our most powerful good role. Whether or not you 'think' there's no good witch-hunter is irrelevant... what Inchfield did makes no sense.

Uller - I'm still not convinced by his arguments made earlier in the game and frankly I'm not a fan of the 'tude - I don't know if that last is a legitimate excuse to vote him off though.

#3 is a bit tougher... it would have been Jast without the code reveal, but I think it'd be foolish to vote him off right now. I'm in favor of picking from the middle group of posters - people like Lake, Suyglass, or Ambrose.

Heh, I do have a lot of suspects. If it helps people I won't be voting for today are Prester, Upcliff and Jast... anyone else I'm indifferent to.

[House Mooton]

I see the discussion has been very fruitful since I changed my vote. Good. And Prester is closer to being lynched I see. I wouldn't vote for him, though. Wynch voted for him and he baked me a cake that I didn't get. It looks suspicious, you must admit.

[House Westerling]

Prester — that makes logics pretty pointless then. As far as I can judge on possible cases during the game, there can be absolutely no confidence about someone's role before he's dead :-(

Norcross, you shall not talk with Prester, you should vote for him.

See, Jast is the player amongst us who has the highest chance of being a symp.

And who has he been buddying all the time?

Yes, the red bull.

That's what symps try to do - they signal their masters that they are on their side.

Btw Jast, are you able to kill a roled innocent this night?

[House Westerling]

I see the discussion has been very fruitful since I changed my vote. Good. And Prester is closer to being lynched I see. I wouldn't vote for him, though. Wynch voted for him and he baked me a cake that I didn't get. It looks suspicious, you must admit.

You can lick the rest from New Inchfield's face. It's a special recipe from my grandma.

[House Tyrell]

Inchfield 2.0 is here!

Done a lot of re-reading. I seem to be in a terrible fight with Uller, and suspicious of Hasty. Also a good code-spotter and in few people's bad books. It will take much more time for me to completely catch up though.

I have no trouble with leaving my vote where it is, but I can't really tell I suspect Hasty that much. I'll check on him later. IMO, Jast should be left aside for tonight, because he can do us no harm if he is a witch hunter, and is not dangerous until the end, if he's a symp. Anyway, we could monitor his behaviour. If he survives. If not, we'll be a bit smarter tommorow. He COULD be an FM, but we'll probably lynch him anyway if he survives a few nights, so it doesn't really matter IMHO.

The people I'd be willing to lynch are:

Norcross, for being so young and naive. He seems to try hard to make sure that he is an unexperienced player, and I have trouble buying it. I will have to do a re-read on him, but if he hasn't come up with something interesting until now, he is dead meat to me. I wouldn't miss him in that case, and if he changes his play now...

Ambrose, for insisting on what I initially thought was a joke vote. I have no troubles with going to a night on day one, in a non-CF game*, but I wouldn't use that option until the very end of the day. Again, re-read is nescessary.

*So, this is also an option for me

[House Westerling]

I'm gonna urge people to vote for players they think are playing scummy. It's all well and good to look for connections and speculate on who's a symp, who's a master - but you shouldn't vote for someone who displays no scummy behavior aside from symp/master connections.

And which player profits the most by that modus operandi?

[House Westerling]

I see the discussion has been very fruitful since I changed my vote. Good. And Prester is closer to being lynched I see. I wouldn't vote for him, though. Wynch voted for him and he baked me a cake that I didn't get. It looks suspicious, you must admit.

* scowls at Caron *

[House Sunglass]

Back from my brush with the law. I'll explain when the game's over if anyone still cares

Reading through what has happened since I signed off at night it looks fairly eventful. Here are some surface thoughts:

Uller is keeping his play-style the same and is fighting with everyone. However, it's hving the effect he said it would: it's generating much discussion and debate. It's really hard to find fault with that.

The Jast/WITCH outing. Well, I'm pretty sure this was not a coincidence. We could go back and check the first five posts from every player in the past 15 games and not find a word snuck in there that was not a code. Many of you have also speculated as to what the code means, thinking that it's equally likely that he's a good-alighned witch hunter, or a hunter aligned to one of the killer factions, or one of their symps setting up for a counterclaim or other fake-reveal. I suppose it might also be possible that it's actually one of the killers setting up a claim as a witch-hunter. It would allow a killer to explain away why people who suspected him started dying. Like this:

House X: I think House Y is a killer and here's why....

*House Y kills House X in the night*

House Z: Hey, House X is dead and House Y was his prime suspect.....

House Y: Well, I know I'm really the Witch Hunter and I investigated House X last night and I guess he was a killer trying to set me up. Here's my code....

Can I prove it? No. Am I going to vote for Jast now because of it? No. It's stille one of several choices and I agree it's better to let the killers ponder what to do with Jast tonight.

Also, the Inchfield thing. I don't yet know how I feel about the why he outed Jast in the first place. First impression says it was a signal to "someone" that here's a witch-hunter. Tonight, time permitting, I want to take a look at Inchfield's earlier posts and see if I can guess who he might have been signalling. That theoretical "someone" would be the best lynch target.

And barring that, I'd like to take out Oakheart. Only a couple posts with no explanation makes my head hurt. He's as likely to be innocent as not at this stage, but if he is innocent, he's not being helpful.