House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 They don't want me to make salads, so I got some more time to skim the thread. I don't object lynching Dopey anymore, he is too like Mini. Sneezy, feel free to axe him when you will be ready.As far as I can count there are only two votes on Dopey at present (someone please correct me if I'm wrong), so Sneezy can't axe and I'm happy to leave it that way for the time being. Though it's worth knowing that Happy doesn't mind us lynching before the 48 hours is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I think Bash voted too. Sneezy, don't hammer before thinking about your guard and what to reveal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I have a feeling I'm missing something, but could you explain why this would be?Both Dopey and Tyrion have been off the Durin mob on day 2. WJ assumed that if there were two FM off the Gimli mob, they wouldn't have killed Smurf and Oompah. He didn't mention the Durin mob, but IMO the same rule would apply here.So either you have to dismiss both the Dopey-Happy and the Dopey-Tyrion connections, or you have to keep both pairings in the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I answered by memory. Sorry, no time for any sort of reread.No.I didn't gather information myself. Please reread that part of day in full. Before posting his first 22 variants, WJ posted brief preliminary review which in fact contained those 22 variants in a nutshell. Starting from same basement, I came to same conclusions naturally. Later he widened his basement.Moreover, about half of next 18 variants included me, so it would be strange if I counted them.This really isn't true. This is the conclusion of WJ's thoughts prior to the 22 scenarios post:Unlikely PartnershipsTyrion - BashfulSneezy - BashfulTyrion - Alberich (to a lesser extent)Possible PartnershipsDoc - BashfulDoc - TyrionDoc - AlberichSneezy - TyrionSneezy - AlberichAlberich - Bashful It rules out a number of combinations but there is no way in hell that you can get to 22 trios from just this information.Later, WJ clarifies his mistake:Argh. I just realized in my rush to get to my meeting that I messed up the analysis to some extent. I forgot about 2 things.1) Sleepy + Mini could be partners. 2) Happy or Dopey could be partnered with Sleepy and/or Mini. This mistake was largely due to the way that I set up my notes. Not going to explain it all (unless you want to hear it), because it's irrelevant. Suffice it to say that I need to adjust my list. WJ got 22 and not 40 scenarios because the way he had written out his notes caused him to miss the fact that Mini and I could have been partners, and Happy or Dopey could be partners with Mini and/or I. There was nothing that he posted on the thread which should cause anyone else to replicate this error.And while half the additional 18 variants may have included you (and therefore been reasonable for you to dismiss), what on earth made you think that Grumpy would be willing to dismiss them. If anything it should have struck you as odd that WJ was willing to dismiss a bunch of scenarios involving you with no explication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I think Bash voted too. Sneezy, don't hammer before thinking about your guard and what to reveal.Actually, it was your vote I missed. Though I just found it now.Everyone who trusts me, (and especially Sneezy), I want you to consider that I'm not voting at the moment, which means that an FM is (or Sneezy is an FM). This vote is going through way too easily considering we need 100% innocents to join it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Actually, it was your vote I missed. Though I just found it now.Everyone who trusts me, (and especially Sneezy), I want you to consider that I'm not voting at the moment, which means that an FM is (or Sneezy is an FM). This vote is going through way too easily considering we need 100% innocents to join it.The Dopey lynch was a given when Mini came up evil. If Dopey is also evil, I can see his remaining elven softie partner seeing cutting ties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted December 31, 2009 Author Share Posted December 31, 2009 It is day 5.6 players remain: Bashful, Dopey, Happy, Sleeppy, Sneezy, Tyrion L.4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.3 votes for Dopey (Tyrion L, Bashful, Happy)3 players have not voted: Dopey, Sleeppy, Sneezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 This really isn't true. This is the conclusion of WJ's thoughts prior to the 22 scenarios post:It rules out a number of combinations but there is no way in hell that you can get to 22 trios from just this information.Later, WJ clarifies his mistake:WJ got 22 and not 40 scenarios because the way he had written out his notes caused him to miss the fact that Mini and I could have been partners, and Happy or Dopey could be partners with Mini and/or I. There was nothing that he posted on the thread which should cause anyone else to replicate this error.And while half the additional 18 variants may have included you (and therefore been reasonable for you to dismiss), what on earth made you think that Grumpy would be willing to dismiss them. If anything it should have struck you as odd that WJ was willing to dismiss a bunch of scenarios involving you with no explication.It's strange indeed. I felt right from the start that Happy was too agreeable when WJ announced his analysis.What do you think about the points I made about Happy's voting behaviour on day 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 The Dopey lynch was a given when Mini came up evil. If Dopey is also evil, I can see his remaining elven softie partner seeing cutting ties.I can see an FM voting Dopey today (even if he's guilty), especially since he's on the verge of a modkill. But they seem to be voting him very easily. A player, at this point, wouldn't even have to give a justification for not voting, a certain amount of caution is natural this late in the game and this early in that day. It really is in the FM's best interests to adopt a wait and see attitude.ETA: I also want to add that the Dopey lynch wasn't a given. Mini coming up evil meant that the game progressed, that's all. If we follow WJ's analysis strictly then Sneezy is certainly the lynch today (I'm not saying we should lynch Sneezy, just that Dopey isn't a given). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Actually, it was your vote I missed. Though I just found it now.Everyone who trusts me, (and especially Sneezy), I want you to consider that I'm not voting at the moment, which means that an FM is (or Sneezy is an FM). This vote is going through way too easily considering we need 100% innocents to join it.I can see an FM voting Dopey today (even if he's guilty), especially since he's on the verge of a modkill. But they seem to be voting him very easily. A player, at this point, wouldn't even have to give a justification for not voting, a certain amount of caution is natural this late in the game and this early in that day. It really is in the FM's best interests to adopt a wait and see attitude.Except such a strategy will be obvious tomorrow. I think Happy's probably evil and has chosen to cut ties. Dopey's lynch has been pretty inevitable. But yeh maybe Sneezy and Happy are evil, or you and Sneezy or something. If so, well done team evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 What do you think about the points I made about Happy's voting behaviour on day 3?Your points are solid, though I would point out that quite a few people had expressed suspicions of Tyrion and you (myself chief amongst them), so there is also an innocent interpretation to the chain of events you're discussing.Why do you think Sneezy wasn't killed last night, since you trust him so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 It rules out a number of combinations but there is no way in hell that you can get to 22 trios from just this information.Probably not 22 but about this.WJ got 22 and not 40 scenarios because the way he had written out his notes caused him to miss the fact that Mini and I could have been partners, and Happy or Dopey could be partners with Mini and/or I. There was nothing that he posted on the thread which should cause anyone else to replicate this error. Oh my. WJ didn't take these facts into consideration because he missed them. I didn't take these facts into consideration because I was unaware of their existence. How could I count on them before WJ've posted them? It really is in the FM's best interests to adopt a wait and see attitude.Not after it became evident we are leaded by Bashful and will do whatever he suggests.One hour left... Happy New Year, people, I'll try to check the thread at the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Except such a strategy will be obvious tomorrow. I think Happy's probably evil and has chosen to cut ties. Dopey's lynch has been pretty inevitable. But yeh maybe Sneezy and Happy are evil, or you and Sneezy or something. If so, well done team evil.I'm not sure if you're talking about the strategy in my first post or the one in my second, but in both situations, you're wrong. If the strategy implied in the first quote plays out then there is no tomorrow, game over, evils win. The strategy described in my second post actually looks like good innocent play for late in the game to me: Don't jump on a lynch early and easily because the FM are looking to take advantage of any stray votes in order to lynch and innocent.I also disagree that if Happy and Sneezy are innocent then they have done much to outwit us all. Mini and Doc were right about one thing, the reason they (and Dopey) appear in many combinations is because they haven't contributed much. If Happy or Sneezy is evil then they are taking advantage of Dopey's inactivity to slip through a lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 ETA: I also want to add that the Dopey lynch wasn't a given. Mini coming up evil meant that the game progressed, that's all. If we follow WJ's analysis strictly then Sneezy is certainly the lynch today (I'm not saying we should lynch Sneezy, just that Dopey isn't a given).Right, I forgot about that.I guess a main problem for the FM is that they're not playing the game. That decreases their influence to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Oh my. WJ didn't take these facts into consideration because he missed them. I didn't take these facts into consideration because I was unaware of their existence. How could I count on them before WJ've posted them? I'm not getting into a pedantic argument about this, but this just doesn't make sense. WJ apparently built his list in some way other than subtracting unlikely partnerships from the total possible pool. But we don't have access to his method or his notes, so it would be amazing if we built our list the same way.Think about this, something about WJ's notes meant that he hadn't considered that Mini and I could be partnered. But he never posted "Mini and Sleepy probably aren't partnered" or anything to that effect so why would anyone else cross off all the scenarios including Mini and I?Not after it became evident we are leaded by Bashful and will do whatever he suggests.We're doing what now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 I'm not sure if you're talking about the strategy in my first post or the one in my second, but in both situations, you're wrong. If the strategy implied in the first quote plays out then there is no tomorrow, game over, evils win. The strategy described in my second post actually looks like good innocent play for late in the game to me: Don't jump on a lynch early and easily because the FM are looking to take advantage of any stray votes in order to lynch and innocent.I also disagree that if Happy and Sneezy are innocent then they have done much to outwit us all. Mini and Doc were right about one thing, the reason they (and Dopey) appear in many combinations is because they haven't contributed much. If Happy or Sneezy is evil then they are taking advantage of Dopey's inactivity to slip through a lynch.If the evilz win then well done to them; I don't care about how much they've objectively outwitted us. And maybe it's best innocent strategy to hang on all day (I doubt this, because really, I don't think we're going to learn much new today, so it's better and more innocent to pick a position early and stic to it. There's no point being cautious with your vote if you think someone's guilty and there's not much that can be said to change your mind - it's not as if we're going to get any role reveals or anything now.) but I'm innocent and I don't feel I made a bad decision by voting Dopey early on. Which is why I would also tend to expect innocents to vote once they've made up their mind, and not delay due to an overzealous sense of caution. I might expect an FM to be reluctant to vote for a partner, or a clever FM to jump on the lynch sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Do you want me to axe Dopey and guard Happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 The question was directed to Sleepy and Bashful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Dondarrion Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Do you want me to axe Dopey and guard Happy?Well, we can cross off every situation where Sneezy is evil and Dopey innocent anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted December 31, 2009 Share Posted December 31, 2009 Well, we can cross off every situation where Sneezy is evil and Dopey innocent anyway.Lets do it then. Dopey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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