Arya & Roose (Spoilers)

[Drowsey Dragon]

If Arya had not freed the Northman who took over Harenthal, leading to Roose taking over there, does the Red Wedding still happen? We know Roose talks to Jaime there and hints that his loyalty is open. Without Roose, I do not see the old man Frey joining in on the plot. Roose also sends Robbs men to die on an attack of Folly after taking over in Harenthal, which also would not have happened. Would Roose still have found a way to betray Robb without Harenthal or was his command of Harenthal pivitol in the RW happening?

[The Roaring Bear]

Well first off, I'm pretty sure that Roose would have escaped without Arya's help since it was mentioned that his whole arrest was on purpose and the Mummers were set to free him regardless. Arya releasing Roose just saved Arya's life since he went through punishing those that had aided Tywin.

I think that regardless of whether or not Roose had Harrenhal the red wedding would have still occured since the fortress did not aid him in his plans with Tywin... I think he saw Robb weakening ("The king who lost the North" he remarks at one point) and would have taken advantage of it either way.

[Ser Dermett Corbray]

Wasn't the Red Wedding a Frey/Lannister concoction anyway? How much did the Bolton's actually input in to that plan, other than jumping in opportunistically when they realised the north could be theirs?

[Drowsey Dragon]

Wasn't the Red Wedding a Frey/Lannister concoction anyway? How much did the Bolton's actually input in to that plan, other than jumping in opportunistically when they realised the north could be theirs?

Good question, but I can't see the old man Frey going solo on this. Bolton was the key, as he could secure the old man from the North, or so he thinks.