[BOOK SPOILERS] Varys - Outplayed or Playing along?

[Cheese Souffle]

A few things struck me watching Littlefinger’s “Chaos is a ladder” monologue with Varys. At first glance, it appears that LF has uncovered Varys’ mole and foiled his scheme. Once again, LF gets the better of Varys. Or has he?

I believe that the show has been setting up Varys, not LF, as one of the co-conspirators for the PW from the very beginning of season 3. Ros’ death not only works more in Varys’ favor than against it, it's long-term ramifications are far and away more beneficial to Varys than LF.

I like this idea for a number of reasons. As others have pointed out, prior to Ros’ death, Margaery was well on her way to reigning in Joffrey. Now, Margaery and the QoT will see how utterly uncontrollable and unpredictable Joff truly is and begin to take steps to eliminate him.

Enter our friendly neighborhood Spider and a convenient offer to help. D&D have already shown Varys as a Targaryen sympathizer, and all of his moves this season have been consistent with that. Who plants the idea for a Sansa Stark-Loras Tyrell wedding? Varys!

LF spiriting Sansa off to the Vale only concerns Varys insofar as it removes one of Varys’ best pieces from the game board. For Varys, Sansa is bigger than simply being the key to the North; she is the key to continued strife within the realm. In season 1, Varys is trying to prevent a war. Having failed in that endeavor, the next best thing is to prolong it. With Loras betrothed to Sansa, Varys can't lose - he's driven a wedge between the Tyrells and the Lannisters regardless of what Robb does.

But LF foiled all of that when he exposed the Sansa-Loras plot. So, Varys goes back to the drawing board. He can’t have a marriage, but he can have an assassination – and not just any assassination, as we know. Who better to take the fall than Sansa, who has a better motive than anyone else in King’s Landing?

Of course, Varys can’t just send a raven to Sansa kindly suggesting she assassinate the king. Such matters require more subtlety and skill at playing the game than young Lady Stark currently possesses. If Varys is going to use Sansa as his pawn, the easiest way to do so would be to have the QoT move her in place.

Now, the Tyrells are quite pleased with their progress in “housebreaking” Joffrey. Knowing what LF does to his “bad investments, and what Joffrey does to his “gifts,” Varys uses what resources he has, sacrificing Ros to Joffrey gives the Tyrells reason to conspire with Varys once again.

Is Varys genuinely upset that LF found Ros out, or have we just seen Varys’ best poker face yet? I could go either way. Regardless, having a Varys-QoT conspiracy makes so much more sense than LF-QoT. (as a small aside, both Varys and the Strangler have Lysene origins) Later, it also makes Varys setting up the QoT to take the blame for Tyrion’s escape that much more effective.

What do you think? Is Varys going to be the architect of the PW?