House personality, exceptions, what they tell us going forward

[Ser_Cortnay_Penrose]

So I know threads such as these- critically analyzing the writing rather than arranging textual evidence to construct a "theory" or prediction- are not popular among the devotees of this site, and are prone to accusations of pointlessness. Sorry. But I think this observation does ultimately suggest clues about how the series will conclude, so bear with me, if you will, even as the many counterexamples come surging to mind.

It seems as though in GRRM's world, each house has a set of strong personality attributes. This house personality fits with most every character we meet from that family, and more significantly, determines the course of action that the decision-maker of that house will ultimately pursue. The exception seems to be some POV characters, who struggle with their house identities; whether they do or do not defy the character of the house or the main Lord's wishes becomes a major plot element. However when we do not have a POV character from the house, it seems most likely that the house will follow it's most predictable course of action. In other words, a house will not surprise you unless it's got a POV character, or if GRRM literally tells you "this guy isn't like the rest."

A few examples: The Freys and the Umbers are fairly one-dimensional foils to each other, both of moderate strength, moderately well-connected at the onset, both holding castles at significant geographic junctures, both capable of a certain low cunning (to use Tywin's phrase), but while the Freys are clearly have shit honor and commit the ultimate betrayal, the Umbers are fiercely loyal. But while we get a hint of the younger ward Walder being less horrible than his kin, and while Whoresbane feigns submission to the Boltons, I think we can agree that no character has yet or will defy the house personality. I mean, we'd all shit our pants if an Umber ends up stabbing a Stark in the back, or if a Frey commits some act of selflessness and courage.

Similarly, House Tully and House Lannister are foils to each other, but in a more complicated way (as these houses are more prominent in the plot). The Tullys care deeply about family, to the point of making absurdly unwise decisions out of immediate concern for loved ones. They are capable of valiance, but lack foresight. The Blackfish is called such because he is the obvious exception, being highly strategic and willing to let Edmure hang to hold Riverrun. The bumbling Edmure, while brave, is incompetent. Lysa is so obsessive over her son that she cannot see the subtler dangers that surround her. Catelyn is so distraught over Bran, Arya, and Sansa, and so unthoughtful, that she actually does exactly what endangers her family the most, repeatedly. The Lannisters on the other hand are willing to play their family members like pawns in their relentless pursuit of power. Sure Cersei seems paranoid and protective of her monster son, but not genuinely- she could've run off with her children upon Ned's warning, or simply not created thousands of impassioned enemies that surround her in her demand for dominance over everyone, but she above all prizes power and family status, just as her father. The first exception we see to the Lannister pesonality is Tyrion, a POV who at first values having a good time, then acts out of love for a woman, then acts out of vengeance. Jaime is, at first, a Lannister through and through, seeking glory as a youth, taking a place of honor and status in the KG, not giving a rip about his kids, endangering Cersei horribly with their hidden love. But once we get a Jaime POV he loses a hand and undergoes an extreme transformation.

Robb, who annoyingly is never a POV, is the classic Stark: just, brave, adept at warfare, a gift for inspiring loyalty, kind but stern, too trusting and incapable of predicting or understanding treachery. For a long time our POV Jon Snow demonstrates these same traits, but ultimately defies the character of his "house"- actually gets laid and bails on the chick, actually executes a face-to-face deception, foresees and understands the impending danger that others are blind to, cuts a deal, bends the rules, becomes kind of a badass. But his flaw is inattention to his men and their concerns, a sin that neither Rickard nor Ned nor Robb would commit, and as a result he gets literally stabbed in the back.

This brings me to two of the most interesting and important houses going forward in the series: the Tyrells and the Martells. The Martells are principled but not vain but also unwilling to submit; they are vengeful, loyal to their word but willing to be sneaky, to take the back route and dirty their hands. The house is epitomized by Oberyn's fight with the Mountain- skilled and brave and self-sacrificial and honorable, but with a streak of deception and cruelty and steeped in vengeance. Arienne, our house Martell POV, is the one lacking in some of the house traits, who doesn't fully understand the situation, lacks some patience, struggles with the right course of action.

The Tyrells are ambitious, but unlike the Lannisters they do not seek to advance their house by themselves, and not by fighting wars. They seek to advance in power and status by forming wise alliances rather than dangerous enemies, as they always have. Historically the stewards to the former lords of Highgarden, they opened the gates to Aegon I. During RR, they won a victory in the field but did not pursue, instead chossing a siege of Storm's End... but never actually storming the walls, instead opting to try to starve out the castle, which was the politically clever move given that Robert had a chance of winning the war, in which case you're better off not having killed the new king's brother in his ancestral seat, after losing thousands in the siege attack. In the Wot5K, the Tyrells side with the biggest army, then switch to the next most powerful side when Renly gets murked.

But wait, you say, because Lady Olenna is clearly sneaky and killed Joffrey! She did indeed. And what if she had been caught? Torture and death for her and her family. Do you think she and Margaery would risk it? I don't think they have it in them. They'd sooner pull back to Highgarden with all their strength and hide forever than risk everything on an 80-yr-old's slight of hand at the feast. Thus...

The murder of Joffrey must have been sanctioned by Tywin. Further, I doubt that the Tyrells will pursue any agressive course of action without a strong ally at their back. I think the common statement "AFfC is all about the Lannister-Tyrell power struggle" is dead wrong because the Tyrells are in the process of marrying and allying with the Lannisters, whether through Joffrey (plan A) or Tommen (plan B ). The Lannisters and Tyrells were both well-rid of Joffrey, which is why I think they were in cahoots, but the Tyrells aren't trying to destroy or oust the Lannisters because without the marriage they have no claim and without the alliance they have fewer soldiers and a new powerful enemy. It's the Lannisters that want sole power, which is why Cersei stupidly accuses Margaery to the Faith, no the Tyrells, which is why they haven't simply declared war, defeated the weakened Lannisters and/or stormed the church to free Margaery.

If we had a Tyrell PoV character, I would be less confident in predicting their course of action because there would be a character to struggle with house identity and interest against their own judgement, as Jon and Tyrion and Jaime and Theon do. The coming actions of house Martell are more difficult to predict because we do have a Martell PoV and close looks at Doran, Quentyn, and the Sand Snakes. We've got a good Idea of the Snakes and how they will be behave, and a good sense of Doran's character and motives. The wild card (ugh...) will be Arienne.

What do you guys think of these observations, this interpretation? Sorry to ramble on.