Stannis endgame if victorious at Blackwater?

[Guard of the Rainking]

Stannis still sees the Rivelands as his lands... It's only Robb who says otherwise.

Well yeah Stannis is king at that point so him he says what's treason and at this point Joffrey's reign was illegitimate.

Who says Robb even wants to continue the war in that case? Catelyn is still alive and knows that Ned declared for Stannis, the Riverlands still have Jaime, Stannis with luck has Sansa and he promised justice for Ned's death (the reason the North declared independence) even before he took KL. Robb and Stannis are indifferent to each other at best but they still have a lot of grudges against the Lannisters.

On top of that Stannis knows that Tywin tried to undermine Baratheon rule with is illegitimate grandson.

Again, worst case scenario no one allies with anyone.

Robb also said, that if Stannis had won at the Blackwater he could have made peace with him. Stannis also pondered over the Robb leech, so he has some sympathy for him.

[The Bittersteel]

Robb also said, that if Stannis had won at the Blackwater he could have made peace with him. Stannis also pondered over the Robb leech, so he has some sympathy for him.

The only way Robb could have made peace with Stannis is if he had set aside his crown, I can't see Stannis accepting anything less.

[Stormland's Fury]

The only way Robb could have made peace with Stannis is if he had set aside his crown, I can't see Stannis accepting anything less.

Which Robb would do, there's not that much do gain for them if they can live in peace. Catelyn even tells him there's no shame to bend as other Stark kings did it as well. Robb's only problem was that he wouldn't bend to a Lannister.

Robb would also hear the full story about Ned and the Northerners were fine to bend the knee.

[Guard of the Rainking]

Which Robb would do, there's not that much do gain for them if they can live in peace. Catelyn even tells him there's no shame to bend as other Stark kings did it as well. Robb's only problem was that he wouldn't bend to a Lannister.

Robb would also hear the full story about Ned and the Northerners were fine to bend the knee.

My point exactly. BTW who knows about Ned's loyalty to Stannis?

[Stormland's Fury]

My point exactly. BTW who knows about Ned's loyalty to Stannis?

Here is a thread about it actually.

I was wrong about Cat, I think in the show Stannis tells her. Still by taking KL he would have enough proof to present to Robb, especially if he manages to get Sansa.

[Guard of the Rainking]

Here is a thread about it actually.

I was wrong about Cat, I think in the show Stannis tells her. Still by taking KL he would have enough proof to present to Robb, especially if he manages to get Sansa.

So basically, if Stannis would have gotten Sansa he would most likely have Robb on his side, and if he'd gotten Tommen there would most likely be no Lannister Tyrell alliance.

[Stormland's Fury]

So basically, if Stannis would have gotten Sansa he would most likely have Robb on his side, and if he'd gotten Tommen there would most likely be no Lannister Tyrell alliance.

Sansa would be the safest way on two levels, it's almost guaranteed by then.

Also:

Catelyn: You would not be the first king to bend the knee, nor even the first Stark.

Robb: No. Never.

Catelyn: There is no shame in it. Balon Greyjoy bent the knee to Robert when his rebellion failed. Torrhen Stark bent the knee to Aegon the Conqueror rather than see his army face the fires.

Robb: Did Aegon kill King Torrhen’s father?

aSoS|35

Robb: Is that why you freed the Kingslayer? To make a peace with the Lannisters?

Catelyn: I freed Jaime for Sansa’s sake ... and Arya’s, if she still lives. You know that. But if I nurtured some hope of buying peace as well, was that so ill?

Robb: Yes, The Lannisters killed my father.

Catelyn: Do you think I have forgotten that?

Robb: I don’t know. Have you?

aSoS|35

I have a duty to my daughter. To the realm. Even to Robert. He loved me but little, I know, yet he was my brother. The Lannister woman gave him horns and made a motley fool of him. She may have murdered him as well, as she murdered Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. For such crimes there must be justice. Starting with Cersei and her abominations. But only starting. I mean to scour that court clean. As Robert should have done after the Trident.^[16] ”

- Stannis to Ser Davos Seaworth

I think Robb and Stannis are actually on the same page on quite a few matters.

The Tyrells wouldn't get a chance for Margaery becoming queen, which was the whole reason that they sided with Renly and the Lannisters to begin with. Also the Reachmen who are now in favour with the king are the Florents (who some Reacmen think have a better claim than the Tyrells), so I guess they would get that situation under control, especially if Stannis gets the Redwyne twins alive. But that's more speculation what really happens in that scenario.

[Ingelheim]

Lol guys, Stannis's defeat at the Blackwater saved his life. It's not that hard, he would have died if he had conquered the city.

[Stormland's Fury]

Lol guys, Stannis's defeat at the Blackwater saved his life. It's not that hard, he would have died if he had conquered the city.

I think in the long run yes. My main concern is that religion of his.

[GallowsKnight]

Stannis is a lot better shape then people are making out. Most of his causalities were naval until the Lannister/Tyrells arrived and his army was killed/routed/surrendered.

If that army doesn't arrive Stannis has his ~20k knights and men at arms minus casualties. He has the ships caught upriver above the wildfire who wouldn't have to scuttle and Salladhor Saan's fleet (who can be paid now in gold or at least more solid promises).

Hostage wise he has

Joffrey - Who is more valuable alive as it stops people from easily crowning Tommen or Myrcella (absent in Rosby and Dorne respectively)

Tyrion - Who has similar value if Tywin dies, as he can be used as leverage over the Westerlands

Sansa - Who had escaped Maegor's holdfast and hid in her room, who can be used to diplomatically win back the Starks.

The Redwyne Twins - who give him leverage over one of the biggest remaining fleets

Misc crownlands nobility - this gives him controls over places like Stokeworth and Rosby

I imagine Cersei would have carried out a suicide in some manner otherwise she'd definitely get executed.

The Tyrells are going to be less keen to fight Stannis as much of their large army's loyalty may be strained (a large chunk are from the Stormlands or served Reachmen under Stannis). I imagine they bend the knee pretty quickly. Randyl Tarly and Loras Tyrell may need to be thrown under a bus though as they killed men loyal to Stannis at bitterbridge. They might be sent the Wall. It would be amusing to see Randyl where he banished Sam. But they'd also be pretty useful there.

With this further defeat the Boltons and the Freys might hold off betraying Robb also.

[Guard of the Rainking]

If that army doesn't arrive Stannis has his ~20k knights and men at arms minus casualties. He has the ships caught upriver above the wildfire who wouldn't have to scuttle and Salladhor Saan's fleet (who can be paid now in gold or at least more solid promises).

Exactly. Stannis has his survivors from the battle, the defected Goldcloaks and sellswords, whatever Crownlands forces come to his side and the Stormlander foot forces coming from Bitterbridge. That's quite a lot of men to defend King's Landing. Since Stannis is the only one with ships (he has the Redwyne hostage so they might even join him) he controls the river, so Tywin is going to have to attack one of the stronger gates, and he can't siege the city since Stannis can bring in food via the sea.

[complexphoenix]

Stannis would definitely kill Joffrey and Cersei as they are direct rivals for the throne, but Tyrion is more doubtful. His active support of Joffrey makes him a traitor and his role in the Battle of the Blackwater will make a lot of Stannis's men want him dead, but Stannis would benefit by keeping a few hostages (Lancel would most likely be kept for this purpose as well) and Tyrion also has a very large amount of valuable information. I could see Stannis sending Tyrion to the Wall instead of killing him in exchange for intel.

Once he's captured the throne, his main problems are the Starks and the Tyrells. Both families are traitors in his eyes, but he clearly cannot afford to fight them all and he is more pragmatic than Littlefinger describes him as. My guess is that he offers them pardons, provided they bend the knee immediately. Robb would accept the terms most likely, since he knows Stannis is the rightful king, as long as Stannis didn't muck it up by requiring him to convert to R'hllor or being otherwise unreasonable. Edmure would follow Robb's lead.

The Tyrells are dicier. Loras is never, ever going to want to have anything to do with Stannis, since he suspects him, with obvious cause, of having a hand in Renly's death, and nobody has forgotten the siege of Storm's End. Stannis will have to tread very, very carefully if he wants the Tyrells to kneel.

Unfortunately, we all know that Stannis is quite obtuse and a very poor diplomat, so there's a good chance he mucks it up. The religion issue gives his opponents a perfect excuse to not accept him as king. In this case the Starks and Tyrells wind up ganging up on him, with the Lannisters joining their former enemies like the slimy opportunists they are (I can easily see Tywin joining forces with them in exchange for getting Jaime back). In that case, Stannis is toast. He might be able to take out a few of his top enemies with shadow babies, but not all of them.

After they are victorious, the winners hold a Great Council to choose the next king. Not sure who they'd end up choosing, but Robb and Mace are probably the best bets.

[hollowcrown]

Stannis couldn't beat the Lanrells without Robb unless he uses another cheat code but I don't see it happening. Robb might force him into an agreement that the north remains independent if Robb lifts the siege. If Kingslanding is half dead from a long siege then I don't see how Stannis could refuse unless he wants to die but I couldn't see him being so foolish.

Maybe the Lanrells do back off though, maybe all the hostages work. Stannis would still have to fight Robb in the Riverlands which is also a war I don't see him winning.

Tywin would've undoubtedly backed off. Robb has Jaime in captivity, Stannis has Cersei and Tyrion. Tywin is always on about his legacy - he would've had to have backed down in this case to let his legacy continue through his children.

Unless he was too prideful and just let them die.

[Ingelheim]

People seem to forget that Cersei was going to kill herself and her children and Sansa, that's why he had Ilyn Payne Aaround.

[Guard of the Rainking]

People seem to forget that Cersei was going to kill herself and her children and Sansa, that's why he had Ilyn Payne Aaround.

Sansa escaped though. And she only has Joffrey in King's Landing. Tommen is at Rosby and Myrcella is in Dorne.

[Rhaegars Heir]

Depending on how he won, he might think he has a strong enough force to hold off tywin, so if word of tywin's alliance with the tyrells doesnt reach him in time, i can see him burning the lannisters in the city.

Although he probably would find out and then keep them hostage. He now has a huge lannister-tyrell army at is gates, so his options are a bit limited. He is massively outnumbered, he might be able to hold off a direct assault with his remaining force if tywin waited to assault, but it would be unlikely.

Anyway it would be unlikely Stannis reign would last very long though, as if tywin arrived just after he takes the city, then he'd probably decide the best decision is to attack immediately while Stannis hasnt had time to organise his occupation and defence of KL, the gates would still be damaged from the assault, stannis probably wouldnt have taken possession of the red keep at that point anyway, and even if he did, he would have time to communicate with Tywin any potential hostage demands, even if tywin did listen to him. He might be able to capture Tyrion, but its not like Tywin would hold off an attack to save Tyrion

Stannis wasnt defeated on the blackwater, he was defeated when the tyrells made the pact with tywin

if Tywin and the tyrellls had KL under siege Robb would have taken the opportunity to attack them from the rear well their focued on Stannis and forced stanis to give him back Sansa and sced the north and river lands indepeance

[Ingelheim]

Sansa escaped though. And she only has Joffrey in King's Landing. Tommen is at Rosby and Myrcella is in Dorne.

Stannis would have Tommen dead within a week. And Myrcella is in Dorne, that's true.

[Salt 'n' Gravy]

Stannis would have Tommen dead within a week. And Myrcella is in Dorne, that's true.

He would if Tommen was still in Rosby. Jacelyn Bywater's gold cloaks had orders to spirit him away to parts unknown if the city fell. I think that they would have obeyed, as Jacelyn selected that contingent for their loyalty to the Lannisters.