Wars of the Roses/ASOIAF predictions

[Constantinople]

My first post here, and I thought I'd share a vague theory that's occurred to me today.

I'm a recently graduated History student, and lately I've taken a fair bit of interest in the English Wars of the Roses, which GRRM has of course confirmed several times as being a major source of inspiration for the dynastic wrangling of ASOIAF's novels. I wonder, though, if the vague chronology of the Wars can be mapped onto Westeros?

To cover the Wars very briefly...

A charismatic distant claimant to the throne (Edward IV) rose up against the regime of a "Mad King" (Henry VI) seeking vengeance for the death of a family member who had long caused controversy in the royal family- in this case his father, Richard of York. He took the throne from the Mad King's armies, and ruled relatively successfully. This part is definitely "mappable" to ASOIAF.

Midway through the new King's reign, a rebellion broke out: as in ASOIAF. Historically, this resulted in Henry VI briefly retaking London and the throne, but in ASOIAF the new King defeats the rebellion. So, a vague parallel but not an ideal one.

The king dies while still relatively young, leaving two young sons, whose legitimacy is denied by their uncle, but who are supported by the powerful faction of their mother the Queen. This seems to be a tolerable match, with Stannis playing the part of Richard III, and Cersei as Elizabeth Wydeville.

So, if we look ahead to the future, here are a couple of ideas for TWOW and ADOS, should the Wars of the Roses template continue to hold relatively true.

Stannis will, as Richard III did historically, take the throne and lock up Tommen, initially making a display of mercy but probably in the end quietly disposing of the boy. The Lannisters will, as the Wydevilles historically were, be marginalised by the new regime which will nonetheless broadly be seen as unpopular and illegitimate, even less so than the Tommen one was before it.

This will go on for a while, with Stannis making a not-too-bad job of restoring the realm, before being subject to a surprise coup led by an unexpected distant relative of the Mad King: insert Aegon, Jon Snow or (less likely) Daenerys here as the Henry VII Tudor analogue. The new monarch will have to deal with major problems (the invasion from the North) early in their reign, as Henry VII did, but will ultimately remain successful and hold onto the throne.

Hope this is a fairly interesting first post: I'd love to hear what the board thinks!

[indignant mushroom]

I think if the WoR plotline is continue it would fit well. Martin's already said that there would be a few more people on the IT before settling with one ruler.

[N/A]

welcome to the forum hope you have as much fun here as i do :cheers:

a very nice post, but don't you think that this cheapens mister martin's writing if everything was to play out this way ?

and since we know many people would sit the throne towards the end,we have to guess (one of the regime changes will come through a DOD 2.0 another from rebellion maybe ? and chaos lots and lots of chaos )

and i think you're downplaying the "invasion from the north" it ought to have the largest impact on the story

PS:i really like your comparisons ,they have their shady past

[indignant mushroom]

So, does this make the Targs the Plantagenets?

[Constantinople]

welcome to the forum hope you have as much fun here as i do :cheers:

a very nice post, but don't you think that this cheapens mister martin's writing if everything was to play out this way ?

and since we know many people would sit the throne towards the end,we have to guess (one of the regime changes will come through a DOD 2.0 another from rebellion maybe ? and chaos lots and lots of chaos )

and i think you're downplaying the "invasion from the north" it ought to have the largest impact on the story

PS:i really like your comparisons ,they have their shady past

Thanks!

I do see your point about "cheapening", but I don't think it's a major one. All that has to be done is to stick to the vague historical template with regard for the kings and their families: it means there are plenty of variables out there in terms of Dorne, Beyond the Wall, Essos, the Iron Isles and so on. Although if Westeros is basically medieval England writ large then Dorne is clearly the equivalent of a sunny Wales.

Following a Wars of the Roses outline would provide a perfectly serviceable storyline, and fulfil GRRM's objectives of having lots of claimants on the Iron Throne before the end. There's also no reason some events can't be dragged out: for example, there were several months between the accession of Edward V and the usurpation of Richard III, which (if my analogy is correct) have already been dragged out over several years, with Joffrey and Tommen together playing the Edward V role. There's no reason why Stannis' coup and reign should resemble that of Richard III except in very broad outlines, and the same goes for the rebellion that ends in Stannis' death: it needn't resemble the coup of Henry Tudor apart from in the broadest possible outline.

[Constantinople]

So, does this make the Targs the Plantagenets?

The Targaryens are the Lancastrian equivalent, the Baratheons/Lannisters the Yorkist equivalent.

If Aegon IS a Blackfyre, then it further supports this line of reasoning: Henry Tudor was only distantly related to the direct male Lancastrian line, after all, but in the end he was close enough to be accepted as the champion of Lancaster, in a way that I think an Aegon Blackfyre could bank on the "dragon is still a dragon" hints of AFFC and ADWD. Although personally I think on balance Aegon is probably a legitimate Targaryen.

[indignant mushroom]

Lannisters are the Lancasters, though, and the Yorks are the Starks, such was the inspiration for their feud.

Which makes me wonder if Martin isn't following the WoS, but the historical figures and instead using them.

[Constantinople]

Lannisters are the Lancasters, though, and the Yorks are the Starks, such was the inspiration for their feud.

Which makes me wonder if Martin isn't following the WoS, but the historical figures and instead using them.

Really, though? I mean, I agree the whole Lannister=Lancaster and Stark=York, but I think those are just names that have been used. Certainly, the Lannister/Baratheon uneasy alliance more clearly resembles that of the various factions within the Yorkist regimes of 1461-85 than it does the fate of the House of Lancaster, which was essentially destroyed by the midpoint of the Wars of the Roses and whose comeback can have been predicted by pretty much nobody.

[indignant mushroom]

Really, though? I mean, I agree the whole Lannister=Lancaster and Stark=York, but I think those are just names that have been used. Certainly, the Lannister/Baratheon uneasy alliance more clearly resembles that of the various factions within the Yorkist regimes of 1461-85 than it does the fate of the House of Lancaster, which was essentially destroyed by the midpoint of the Wars of the Roses and whose comeback can have been predicted by pretty much nobody.

So it's been said.

I think Martin might be plucking historical figures out of their context and using them in another, aka AOIAF.

Not to say that the Targs can't have parallels with the Lancasters. It's not as linear as we're painting it, I think, but more of a vague mess.

But I think the general feel is WoS. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the players and their fictional equivalents, because honestly there are so many.

For the thread's context it would probably be a good idea to map out who is whom.

[Constantinople]

So it's been said.

I think Martin might be plucking historical figures out of their context and using them in another, aka AOIAF.

Not to say that the Targs can't have parallels with the Lancasters. It's not as linear as we're painting it, I think, but more of a vague mess.

But I think the general feel is WoS. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the players and their fictional equivalents, because honestly there are so many.

For the thread's context it would probably be a good idea to map out who is whom.

Happy to! For the thread, I would suggest the following parallels: some are more vague than others, but the basic blueprint fits.

Aerys Targaryen = Henry VI. Both are "Mad Kings".

Robert Baratheon = Edward IV. The successful pretender from a royal cadet branch who takes the throne and deposes the Mad King.

Cersei Lannister = Elizabeth Wydeville. A legendary beauty who is nonetheless not considered the best potential wife for the new king.

Renly Baratheon = George of Clarence. A dashing and popular brother of the king, who dies before being able to take power himself.

Stannis Baratheon = Richard III of Gloucester. The quieter and less well-liked brother of the king, who lusts for power.

Joffrey/Tommen Baratheon = Edward V. The King's son and heir, whose legitimacy is questioned by his uncles.

Jaime Lannister = Anthony, Earl Rivers. The Queen's unpopular brother, disliked by members of the King's family in particular.

Aegon Targaryen/Blackfyre = Henry Tudor. A distant relative of the Mad King who ends up as principle heir and comes from nowhere to ultimately save the realm, quite unexpectedly.

Where exactly Richard Neville, Earl of Warwick, fits into this I'm not sure. You could make an argument for him being a Tyrion equivalent (much more competent than most of his family, but disliked by them for that very reason), or for Warwick being something more like Ned Stark (instrumental in leading the rebellion but ultimately doomed due to his refusal to budge on mistrust of the Queen's family).

[indignant mushroom]

Happy to! For the thread, I would suggest the following parallels: some are more vague than others, but the basic blueprint fits.

Aerys Targaryen = Henry VI. Both are "Mad Kings".

Robert Baratheon = Edward IV. The successful pretender from a royal cadet branch who takes the throne and deposes the Mad King.

Cersei Lannister = Elizabeth Wydeville. A legendary beauty who is nonetheless not considered the best potential wife for the new king.

Renly Baratheon = George of Clarence. A dashing and popular brother of the king, who dies before being able to take power himself.

Stannis Baratheon = Richard III of Gloucester. The quieter and less well-liked brother of the king, who lusts for power.

Joffrey/Tommen Baratheon = Edward V. The King's son and heir, whose legitimacy is questioned by his uncles.

Jaime Lannister = Anthony, Earl Rivers. The Queen's unpopular brother, disliked by members of the King's family in particular.

Aegon Targaryen/Blackfyre = Henry Tudor. A distant relative of the Mad King who ends up as principle heir and comes from nowhere to ultimately save the realm, quite unexpectedly.

Where exactly Richard Neville, Earl of Warwick, fits into this I'm not sure. You could make an argument for him being a Tyrion equivalent (much more competent than most of his family, but disliked by them for that very reason), or for Warwick being something more like Ned Stark (instrumental in leading the rebellion but ultimately doomed due to his refusal to budge on mistrust of the Queen's family).

Most excellent. This makes things far easier to digest. Let me to go grab one of my books to see if we can find any future parallels!

[hodor stark]

well done very interesting well done i like this

[direwienerdog]

Happy to! For the thread, I would suggest the following parallels: some are more vague than others, but the basic blueprint fits.

Aerys Targaryen = Henry VI. Both are "Mad Kings".

Robert Baratheon = Edward IV. The successful pretender from a royal cadet branch who takes the throne and deposes the Mad King.

Cersei Lannister = Elizabeth Wydeville. A legendary beauty who is nonetheless not considered the best potential wife for the new king.

Renly Baratheon = George of Clarence. A dashing and popular brother of the king, who dies before being able to take power himself.

Stannis Baratheon = Richard III of Gloucester. The quieter and less well-liked brother of the king, who lusts for power.

Joffrey/Tommen Baratheon = Edward V. The King's son and heir, whose legitimacy is questioned by his uncles.

Jaime Lannister = Anthony, Earl Rivers. The Queen's unpopular brother, disliked by members of the King's family in particular.

Aegon Targaryen/Blackfyre = Henry Tudor. A distant relative of the Mad King who ends up as principle heir and comes from nowhere to ultimately save the realm, quite unexpectedly.

Where exactly Richard Neville, Earl of Warwick, fits into this I'm not sure. You could make an argument for him being a Tyrion equivalent (much more competent than most of his family, but disliked by them for that very reason), or for Warwick being something more like Ned Stark (instrumental in leading the rebellion but ultimately doomed due to his refusal to budge on mistrust of the Queen's family).

I love the historical parallels thank you and welcome to the forums.

[Tywin Smokin a Blunt]

I thought henry tudor was supposed to have been a distant lancastrian claimant, if the targs are the plantagenates, doesn't that eliminate any of them? I'm no expert by any means, but I could swear I read that just the other day

[mrunderhill]

I thought henry tudor was supposed to have been a distant lancastrian claimant, if the targs are the plantagenates, doesn't that eliminate any of them? I'm no expert by any means, but I could swear I read that just the other day

The House of York and House of Lancaster were both Plantagenet Houses.The War of the Roses only succeeded in wiping out both families. Henry Tudor was the leader of House Lancaster and had a claim to the throne through being a descendant of Edward III. He married Edward IV's daughter.

Martin has said he based a bit of Robert's character on Edward IV, but he makes each character his own.

[indignant mushroom]

Richard of York could stand in for Rickard and Brandon, although that's stretching it. Although they weren't related to Robert, their deaths by the hand of the MK really spurred everyone into action. It makes more sense then, for Ned to fill the role of Richard "The Kingmaker" Neville I think.

What I'm really interested in is who will be playing the roles of Henry Tudor and Elizabeth of York, but that opens up a new can of worms to deal with.

If Aegon lands, that sort of makes Illyrio Franicis II, of Brittany, doesn't it? Or does that title go to Jorah, in relation to Dany?

[Ser Ilyn's Tongue]

Tywin and Warwick, while not completely the same, do have some interesting similarities. They are both the most powerful, wealthy and influential noble in the country. Tywin is also the power behind the throne for Joffrey and Tommen, and the way he had a hand in removing Aerys and securing Joff and Tommen's rule could arguably allows us to him as a Kingmaker of sorts.

Also, if you believe in fake Aegon then Perkin Warbeck seems a good match.

[Artos Stark]

Just curious, Why did you put less likely for Dany????? I do think that there are a lot of parallels of the stories but I don't think they will be exactly the same.

[grand old duke of stark]

I was a mediaevalist in a previous life, and though I saw a lot of parallels the first time I read GoT, I now think that GRRM basically cannibalized the War of the Roses. He utilized names, some characters, and a multigenerational civil war. But he used them creatively, mainly as a scaffolding for the first book. By the way, I think maybe the Queen of Thorns alludes to the queen dowager, Margaret of Lancaster. And if GRRM were really adhering to that war, he'd probably have Jon of House Stark end up in a dynastic marriage with Danaerys of House Targaryen and maybe form a new ruling house with a new name. Anyway, that is too predictable so I hope it never comes to pass.

[Newstar]

What I'm really interested in is who will be playing the roles of Henry Tudor and Elizabeth of York, but that opens up a new can of worms to deal with.

Well, assuming Lancaster = Targaryen and York = Baratheon/Lannister, and assuming it's going to play out the same way it did historically, the ASOIAF Henry Tudor figure will be a Targ with a dicey or sketchy claim (Aegon/Jon/Dany), and he (or she) will marry the ASOIAF Elizabeth of York figure, a Baratheon, to cement his/her claim to the Iron Throne and put an end to the Targaryen/Baratheon feud. It may appear as if the books are based on the Stark vs. Lannister feud, but the trouble really started in the world of ASOIAF with the events surrounding Robert's Rebellion, which put a Baratheon on the Iron Throne and sent the surviving Targaryens running for their lives. The divide between Targaryen and Baratheon is the real wound that has to be healed for the war to end, unless both houses are definitively wiped out before that can happen.

The only plausible candidates for an ASOIAF Henry Tudor figure are Aegon, Jon and Dany, although their claims are dicey for different reasons: Aegon may not be the real deal, Jon's a bastard (that we know of) whose parentage seems like it would be awfully tricky to prove (and unaware of his Targ heritage at the moment), Dany only has a legit shot if Aegon isn't the real deal, etc.

The only plausible candidates for the ASOIAF Elizabeth of York figure are Shireen and Myrcella, but there's a good chance both will die before the end of ADOS. If the Henry Tudor figure is Dany, then I guess she'd have to marry a legitimized Edric Storm or Gendry for the parallel to play out, and I don't know how that would work.

I've seen Sansa proposed as the Elizabeth of York figure (based on the assumption that York = Stark), but the parallel falls apart, since Sansa has no claim on the Iron Throne, unlike Myrcella (in theory, anyway) and Shireen. So no one would marry her to improve his ties to the Iron Throne, since Sansa has no such ties.

Also, if you believe in fake Aegon then Perkin Warbeck seems a good match.

Lambert Simnel also fits with his "raised to be a king" education. I think Aegon is more likely to prove a Warbeck/Simnel figure than a Henry VII figure, despite the appealing similarities.

And if GRRM were really adhering to that war, he'd probably have Jon of House Stark end up in a dynastic marriage with Danaerys of House Targaryen and maybe form a new ruling house with a new name.

Well, Jon already has experience with making up fake noble houses on the spot as the need arises ("House Thenn," ha!), so I think we can safely say that House Stargaryen is a done deal. (Kidding...kind of.)