Had Tyrion Won His Trial (Oberyn lived)...

[Ragnorak]

Agreed, I hate when people bring their pet conspiracy theories (especially ones with no evidence) into threads that have nothing to do with it.

For what it matters this isn't a pet conspiracy theory. If it is a "conspiracy theory" its one GRRM made up and wrote into the Dorne POVs. It also has everything to do with the OP.

With just an "innocent" outcome Tyrion still probably has to flee KL due to Cersei's wrath. He doesn't have that much to work with other than his wits and some mild Dornish gratitude. If Oberyn wins and gets Gregor to confess that Tywin ordered it, that completely changes Tyrion's position. With Tywin accused of a high crime Tyrion stands to inherit the Rock regardless of Tywin's wishes. That gives him the clout to plot with Dorne and the Tyrells to arrest Tywin. He could create a complete role reversal where its Tyrion sitting with Mace and Oberyn in judgment of Tywin in a rigged trial. Tyrion could probably even play those pieces to oust Cersei as regent. It matters a lot in answering the OP.

[mcb]

Nope if he won his innocence would have been proven and Cersei would be powerless to keep him in custody or to order his death.

She had innocent people imprisoned, tortured and/or killed before. And after.

[Pellaeon]

She had innocent people imprisoned, tortured and/or killed before. And after.

But nobody who prove his innocent infront of the court and the high lords of westeros

[Milcov]

Long term? The Dornish lose

Tyrion was already planning on heading to Dorne. Do you know how much that would have pissed off Tywin? They destroys his favourite monster, kill his puppet king and run away to Dorne and somebody actually thinks Tywin will let them get away with that?

Tywin would have turned Dorne into a smoking hole in the ground, especially if Oberyn crowned Mycrealla. Doran knew he could not beat Tywin without help, more than a decade of carefully laid out plans destroyed by his idiot brother, a funny imp and a pimp. He would almost have to laugh.

Tywin couldn't turn Dorne into a smoking hole, if Aegon couldn't do it with 3 dragons I doubt a war-ravaged Lannister force could. The Dornish couldn't march straight through to Casterly Rock but it doesn't mean they'd lose on their own turf. Tywin will be much happier with Tommen instead of Joffrey anyway and probably glad to have Tyrion out of the way so he can focus on the forces that still haven't bent the knee officially.

And don't forget it was Doran and Oberyn's plan.

She had innocent people imprisoned, tortured and/or killed before. And after.

Yes, but who is going to listen to Cersei over Tywin?

[mcb]

Yes, but who is going to listen to Cersei over Tywin?

Yes, this is indeed a good point, Tywin could protect Tyrion from Cersei's wrath. While Tyrion's innocence by itself wouldn't be nearly enough to save his skin.

[Batman]

Tywin couldn't turn Dorne into a smoking hole, if Aegon couldn't do it with 3 dragons I doubt a war-ravaged Lannister force could. The Dornish couldn't march straight through to Casterly Rock but it doesn't mean they'd lose on their own turf. Tywin will be much happier with Tommen instead of Joffrey anyway and probably glad to have Tyrion out of the way so he can focus on the forces that still haven't bent the knee officially.

And don't forget it was Doran and Oberyn's plan.

Daeron took Dorne without Dragons. I am not saying Tywin would plan on holding Dorne, just strike at certain points and leave them devestated like Sunspear to name one. With Redwynes fleet he could use the superior numbers of the Lannister/Tyrell army to spread their forces thin and sack, loot and burn. He may even be able to make an alliance with Yhronwood to restore them to rulership of Dorne, althpugh this is questionable since Quentyn was fostered. Dorne vs Tywin? I would put my money on Tywin all day every day.

[Pellaeon]

Daeron took Dorne without Dragons. I am not saying Tywin would plan on holding Dorne, just strike at certain points and leave them devestated like Sunspear to name one. With Redwynes fleet he could use the superior numbers of the Lannister/Tyrell army to spread their forces thin and sack, loot and burn. He may even be able to make an alliance with Yhronwood to restore them to rulership of Dorne, althpugh this is questionable since Quentyn was fostered. Dorne vs Tywin? I would put my money on Tywin all day every day.

But the Ironborn attacked the reach at the time this war could happend so, my money is on Dorne

[Batman]

But the Ironborn attacked the reach at the time this war could happend so, my money is on Dorne

You may be right, but as a matter of principal I do not bet against Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark roundly kicked the Lannisters up and down the Trident and Tywin still beat him. Even if he cant win the battles he will win the war.

[Pellaeon]

You may be right, but as a matter of principal I do not bet against Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark roundly kicked the Lannisters up and down the Trident and Tywin still beat him. Even if he cant win the battles he will win the war.

Point for you but Doran isn't Robb either is Tyrion or the red viper these three guys together could bring Tywin down

[Batman]

Point for you but Doran isn't Robb either is Tyrion or the red viper these three guys together could bring Tywin down

Its a shame we'll never know, Doran is the most dangerous of the 3, he wont enter a fight isnt sure he can win. Tyrion and Oberyn are more prone to letting their emotions get the best of them. If Doran dies they have no chance, Tyrion could give them a chance but he would not have final say in Dorne Oberyn would and there is no contest between Oberyn and Tywin.

[Lord Yarwyck]

Cersei explodes with sheer rage.

[mcb]

Its a shame we'll never know, Doran is the most dangerous of the 3, he wont enter a fight isnt sure he can win.

Right now it looks like he won't enter a fight, period. I've lost less professional fights than Mike Tyson, which doesn't mean I'm a better boxer than he is.

[mediterraneo]

I bet that Tywinn clearly told to his worsts "not to show any mercy on the royal family" when sacking King's Landing and when taking Dragonstone.

It was needed:

First of all to tacitate his long friendship with the Mad King - he was his longest running Hand, isn't it? Aerys trusted he was coming to his aid until the end.

Second to round up the greatest service his son Jaime did to the House: giving the Usurper a good reason to love the Lannisters. Actually two: doing the dirty work and getting the blame for it. Robert would have had a more difficult time pacifying the Realm if he was credited for the children's massacre, but he was going to do it: attempt to kill Daenerys and Viserys were still ongoing when Robert died.

Third, Tywinn had to show his House personal victory over the Targaryen, who slighted them in a couple of occasions. Jaime in the Kingsguard, the liberties taken by Aerys during the bedding of Tywinn's wife... A Lannister always pays his debts, or so they go on roaring this generation.

To tell it otherways: without clearly giving that task to his worsts, Tywinn would have exited Robert's Rebellion as another Late Lord Frey, who actually came to the winners side before Tywinn. Killing the children and getting the blame meant for the Lannisters to be considered members of the war winning alliance in a war they did not fight in, and causing a friction in the Stark-Baratheon alliance that let a Lannister queen to slip in.

Tywinn did not have just the opportunity, he had the interest in that. And the harsher the crime, the louder it would have been in the ears of Robert that the Lannisters were useful to him, and difficult to triumph against in the long run. Far easier to accept their "inconditional" submission to the new order. It is to note that Tywinn host at King's Landing numbered in the very low teens, very lower than what possible a generation later, and iirc Kevan is not named at any time as being with him in that moment. If the Golden Tooth was manned (by Kevan) it would have been another incentive for Robert to forgive Lord Tywinn the despise title of "Late" and to marry his daughter.

Tywinn had the motives, the opportunity and he knew his men. They were the same ones that rained on Castamere, this was not the first military adventure of Tywinn's. So we can blame him of knowing the kind of weapon he released on the royal family.

But most importantly, Oberyn and Doran can blame him for all of that.

Oberyn was in King's Landing to get a confession, and he got it. He was there to force Doran's hand. Tyrion was totally incidental. Maybe if Oberyn won, he would have had the strenght in Dorne to pull out open hostilities against the realm. A centrifugue force more against the Realm center - Tyrrell and the weakened Lords of the West and the Stormlands orbiting around their mass.

A funny paradox would have been that Tyrion would have had uses in that struggle: an alive Tywinn could have sent him south with a Lannister host and the instruction to share strategies with Tarly and not with Margaery's father. Or he could have sent Cersei to Casterly Rock to "recover from the loss" and stay out of things, led the army south to give Oberyn a target he couldn't resist from pursuing, trying to get from his hate the choice of the ground of the fight. That would have left Tyrion avaible as a Hand for Tommen in King's Landing, and a quite stronger position for the family. The Lannister - Stormlands host on a aggressive defence of the south, trying to lure the Sand Snakes and Oberyn to a battle in the Reach while the Tyrrells would have had the men to defend or retake the Shield from the Ironborn. In the Riverlands and the North, the coming of winter could have slowed down things, and Bolton is handling that, let's see how well after the winter.

So, to round up and answer the opening post question, If Tyrion was found innocent and Oberyn was alive, rightful and triumphant, I feel that it would have been a bane for the Martells, and it could have prevented the Lannisters from being totally broken up. It could, not it would: I bet that Tyrion would have been nevertheless a wild card, even without Jaime freeing him and revealing the truth about Tysha.

[Batman]

Right now it looks like he won't enter a fight, period. I've lost less professional fights than Mike Tyson, which doesn't mean I'm a better boxer than he is.

It means your smarter, and unlike Mike Tyson and Muhammad Ali you may live to see old age without brain damage.