Winning Northern independence

[Barty]

I thought that I had been saying was: raid along the coast to spread the Northmen out and hurt their agricultural based pre-modern economy and then launch a full invasion with the aim of capturing White Harbor.

That is an almost exact replica of Tywin's plan for attacking the riverlands. Raid the riverlords so the young Lord Edmure will spread out his troops and then launch an invasion in which you easily destroy the divided and scattered armies of the riverlands. Only this plan only worked because Edmure was fool enough to fall for it - I remember Ned thinking that Edmure was falling for Tywin's plan when he hears that Edmure was spreading his army. A seasoned battle commander would never fall for this. Here's the quote:

“Ser Edmure has sent men to every village and holdfast within a day’s ride of the border,” Ser Karyl explained. “The next raider will not have such an easy time of it.”

And that may be precisely what Lord Tywin wants, Ned thought to himself, to bleed off strength from Riverrun, goad the boy into scattering his swords. His wife’s brother was young, and more gallant than wise. He would try to hold every inch of his soil, to defend every man, woman, and child who named him lord, and Tywin Lannister was shrewd enough to know that.

A Seasoned Commander commanding the northern forces(Ned or Robb) would know that there is no point in trying to stop raids along the coasts which are largely unpopulated. They would move the population along the coast further inland, burn the fields and take anything of value which raiders might want. The main army would be kept at all the strongholds which are under threat of attack - WH, MC, Torrhen's square, Deeopwood Motte and Winterfell(not under threat but it should always be guarded unless a Theon like fiasco take place). Plus you are assuming the Starks are not going to prepare before declaring independence(A very wrong assumption) - They will build a fleet at WH - 50 galleys were built by Manderly in quick time. A fleet of similar size if not larger should be made ready to defend WH with trainers from Braavos being hired to train them. Knowing that trade with the south might come to a standstill as soon as you declare independence Starks should increase trade with the free cities - Braavos is the closest and they are in constant need of limber which the North has and should offer to them at a discount. If the southern navy stops the trading ships of Braavos(when war breaks out) then they will be angering the Braavosi - something they do not want to do(Braaovs has the FM and the Iron Bank - not people you want as enemies).

WH has formidable defenses of it's own - A thick city wall,a fortified jetty with a wall 30 feet tall, mile long and with towers every hundred feet, The seal Rock which dominates approaches to the outer harbor and is fifty feet high with a ringfort at the top filled with crossbowmen, scorpions and spitfires( Davos' chapter). Imagine all these defenses plus a fleet of 50 war galleys plus the greater part of the Stark army(20k at least) waiting for you if you manage to land - I don't see how a successful landing could take place.

[Septon Meribald]

I'm pretty sure Moat Cailin was garrisoned when Victarion took it, so what's the difference?

And what do you mean by reconstruct it? Apart from one tower (the childrens?) missing it's roof, there's little else you can do. It's in the middle of a bog, so you can't build walls.

You can build in a bog. It's just harder. As the lord of swamp castle said, "They all said I was daft to build a castle in a swamp, but I did it anyway. It sank into the swamp. So built another. That sank into the swamp too. The third castle burned down, fell over and then sank into the swamp. But the fourth castle stayed up."

[Summer is Ending]

I'm pretty sure Moat Cailin was garrisoned when Victarion took it, so what's the difference?

And what do you mean by reconstruct it? Apart from one tower (the childrens?) missing it's roof, there's little else you can do. It's in the middle of a bog, so you can't build walls.

They did unless it wasn't wetlands at the time they first built it.

Just beyond, through the mists, she glimpsed the walls and towers of Moat Cailin … or what remained of them. Immense blocks of black basalt, each as large as a crofter’s cottage, lay scattered and tumbled like a child’s wooden blocks, half-sunk in the soft boggy soil. Nothing else remained of a curtain wall that had once stood as high as Winterfell’s. The wooden keep was gone entirely, rotted away a thousand years past, with not so much as a timber to mark where it had stood. All that was left of the great stronghold of the First Men were three towers … three where there had once been twenty, if the taletellers could be believed.

[Barty]

I'm pretty sure Moat Cailin was garrisoned when Victarion took it, so what's the difference?

And what do you mean by reconstruct it? Apart from one tower (the childrens?) missing it's roof, there's little else you can do. It's in the middle of a bog, so you can't build walls.

Victarion had the iron fleet and very possibly thousands of men(more than a thousand at least), but yes he succeeded in taking Moat Cailin when it was garrisoned with 200 archers. He then returns to the iron islands leaving the bulk of his men behind at Moat Cailin(this was in Robb's chapter when he hears of Balon's death) - who are then reduced to less than 50 in a matter of weeks by the crannogmen, snakes and lizard lions. The secret of Moat Cailin is not that it cannot be taken, but that even if it is taken it cannot be held(for any length of time) by any enemy of the Starks. Even if Moat Cailin falls to the landing party and word is sent to the main southern host to march up, they now have to march through more than a hundred miles of bogs with the crannogmen launching surprise attacks at them with poisoned arrows every day. Assuming the southern host reaches the north through moat cailin(losing thousands of men in the process) they now need a supply line stretching right through the bogs. Slow carts and wagons are easy targets for guerrilla fighters. You would now need thousands of men to guard the supplies. Even if the supplies are being guarded they will still be attacked and the southern army will be slowly bled dry if their campaign stretches for more than a few months.

But all of this assumes a landing party can land when the Starks are fully prepared and at full strength(something they were not when Vic took MC by surprise) - which as I pointed out in an earlier post is also nearly impossible. So achieve these two nearly impossible tasks and you will then start the real campaign of fighting the main Stark Army, which if it loses will retreat to their strongholds burning everything behind. Now you are left with the task of taking the Northern Castles( nearly all of which are amazingly strong like Winterfell, Dreadfort, Karhold etc)

[Victor227]

We already have solid evidence that the North has managed to survive the combined efforts of the southern kingdoms before, during the Andal invasion. The First Men held the Neck at Moat Cailin, and succeeded brilliantly against a foe that wasn't just aiming for political but racial domination of the continent, and then proceeded to hold that border until dragons became a factor (and even then, the North's capability to resist invasion wasn't put to the test. Once again, it was a case of a Stark going south and getting screwed for it).

There's no way that the south could ever bring together greater political unity than the initial Andal invasion. By current political standards, the southern kingdoms are more obsessed with gaining more wealth, manpower, and prestige over their local rivals. Even with a strong king on the Iron Throne, they're never going to be able to wield the full strength of the south and project it in a naval invasion.

A Stark taking proper care of Winterfell, and ensuring that Moat Cailin has the manpower and fortification it deserves, is untouchable in the North. Creating a unified front against invasion from the south would only serve to bolster and galvanize the people to his side as king, and the least loyal major house, the Boltons, don't have nearly the same leverage to be sneaky and backstabbing in such a situation.

Starks are impossible to defeat when they remember three very simple things.

1. Take care of Winterfell. It's the heart of the North and the key to projecting power, as it's a major economic center, an amazing fortress, and a perfect rallying place for the bannermen. It may be tempting to strip it of all its defenders so they can go off and have an adventure, but resist the temptation. Keep enough men there to stop some guy from coming by with a dozen men, going "Hey, that looks unguarded!" And taking the castle from you in the middle of the night.

2. Never go south of the Neck. It's never ended well and never will. Just as it's near-impossible for the south to project power for very long north of the neck, it's impossible for the North to project power below it for very long as well.

3. If you happen to have a magic wolf, LISTEN TO IT. Like, if the wolf is uncomfortable about something, be uncomfortable about it as well. Seriously. No one else has magic wolves for a reason. It's not a common thing. It may not make sense at times, but go with it. Keep your wolf close. Having a magic wolf earns you more respect and fear than it does enmity. And the whole 'magic wolf' thing is handy when you need a magic goat-trail or to sniff out potential traitors and fatal traps.

[ed Lannister]

though the north has repelled every invasion by independent southern kingdoms only falling to the dragon lords. But the idea of seeking independence as a kingdom when the southern part of westeros is as one united kingdom would spell disaster for the king in the north.

only competent lords would be able to achieve to conquer the north if they hold positions as wardens of the (EAST,SOUTH,WEST,PRINCE PASS,STONEWAY) and have seats in the kings small council if( NED or ROBB STARK is the self proclaimed king in the north)

first if we factor the characters during the time line of ASOIAF(GOT-ADWD) and by chance the armies of southern westeros is commanded by someone like tywin assisted by the likes of gregor,randyl tarly,mathis rowan,jon arryn,hoster tully,stannis,jason mallister,black walder ,lame lothar,aenys frey,willas tyrell,littlefinger,kevan lannister then the kingdom of the north will only exist in the hearts of the northerners and will never see the light of day.

only if the likes of edmure tully aery's II, joffery baratheon,robert baratheon,renly ,mace tyrell,cersei,loras tyrell,ryman frey,arianne martell,stafford lannister,lysa tully ,barristan selmy are running the show in the positions of power in the southern kingdoms then the north will exist as a kingdom but with years of sporadic fighting mostly with the southern kingdom repelled time and time again.