Alden Rothack

the frey lands appear to be mostly on the eastern bank based on the fact that the Mallisters among others are very close on the other side but theres nobody but them north of harroway town and saltpans yeah which explains why the earlier freys were much better at fighting.

from where, the closest lannister forces are in maidenpool at the other end of the riverlands actually it doesn't, a key reason why castles aren't built on river banks is their instability compared to islands Given that none of cersei's kids are suitable they will certainly end up making stannis king regardless of what the original plan was, hopefully after tywin has confined cersei to the rock as cersei and joff are too stupid to keep to the plan, joffreys killing of ned against all reason is proof of that, even tywin thought that was stupid.

The question is could he take it before riverrun falls to jaime because the siege of riverrun had already lasted a considerable time, i'm inclined to think he could since the freys aren't very competent. However that won't neccessarily keep Roose loyal, he was always going to betray Rob if he thought he could get away with it.

its worth noting that at least one noble house which previously featured separately is now a vassal and at least one perhaps two houses the Harroways and Oldstones are both ruins, the Freys appear to be the only major house on the eastern bank of the green fork at all

To get back to the actual topic because however possible if implausible a better outcome of the red wedding is it has no connection to the situation regarding the regency In my opinion the key issues of the regency are firstly does tywin accept roberts decision to make ned regent and secondly what do the tyrells do in the event renly agrees to support Ned.

0 infighting from the freys, that will be the day particularly as their troops have more reason than ever to want those who were in on it gone. the lannisters aren't anywhere near the twins at this point and even when they are the majority of the troops used were from the riverlands. secondly the twins being on a river has pluses and minuses, the besiegers manage to undermine the castle and the weight and of the middle will drag the other castle down with it. thirdly the siege of riverrrun argues against the idea that the freys are too observant to be taken by stealth. the side which is nearly into the neck you mean, I really hope the freys go try that

very few castles are taken by storm, its the least effective way of doing it most are taken by either stealth like Winterfell or the inhabitants giving in often including fighting among themselves

I know, however the humans are the weak link in any attack or defense, the freys proved that at riverrun. Most likely yes unless the freys are as bad at being besieged as they are as besiegers Roose knows the freys much better now than he did then,

I'm not so sure, its a very strong castle to be sure but the lannisters would have to come a long way through still contasted lands to get there, they would finish securing the rest of the riverlands first then move to help the freys. I'd bet on Roose, Robb or the Blackfish finding a way to take the castle before that.

the freys underpaid for the chance to make one of their own Lady Bolton

the lannister forces aren't anywhere near the twins at that point, reinforcements from the other riverlords will arrive well before they do.

who would be coming to relieve it, the freys are there already and outnumbered if roose changes sides, i'm not saying its going to be easy but its doable anyone can alter a battle particularly if they weren't expected to be there, hes useful therefore he can alter the battle in a number of ways, if he gets inside the twins all bets are off.

I know, the fact that the Freys lose dozens of men despite their overwhelming advantages is why I think they would lose and lose badly if Robb and Roose were both against them.

Walder is nearly a hundred, hes not defending himself from a cat let alone an armed human the men outside likely have their weapons nearby, the Freys after all lose fifty men even with total surprise Also where did they hide that many men in armour, the twins is not that big

its quite formidable but most of their men are outside and it only takes one person to get hold of Walder to completely change the situation, I wonder if Arya is sneaky enough to bag the old weasel

they wouldn't need to fake it much, the Great Jon for example did quite well despite being extremely drunk and taken by surprise the fact that the hound shows up mid fight is also a bonus

Not really, the freys know that roose is on their side and won't be suspicious that he keeps his men armed and armoured. Robb already distrusted the freys but felt he had no choice, he brought so many men for exactly that reason but the bolton betrayed them.

there are is a good chance they take the twins given that a number of freys like rob and most of them hate each other plus a number of them have ties to other houses, Houses Darry and Caron are officially leaderless at this point.

Roose might well decide that Rob is still done, it depends on what else is going on at the time However Rob being a lost cause wasn't actually certain until the blackwater, up to that point despite his political failings Rob was still winning the war, any number of decisions could make Roose change his mind Certainly Roose isn't going to publically betray Rob if Stannis is king.

that will certainly be his plan, I mean he thinks Tyrion will do a better job and he hates tyrion as much or more than cersei does. the one thing cersei is good at is fucking things up for her own side, i wouldn't count her out even in this situation as for roose, i think he could salvage things at any point before the Red Wedding if he changed his mind, its not like everyone didn't hate him anyway.

cersei's actions during the lannister-tyrell alliance make it clear what her opinion of safe but sidelined is roose isn't locked into the plot until he actually joins in, ramseys actions are a bigger problem for him than walder, in fact if walder still trys to go ahead and roose betrays him by for example saying he learned of the plot from his wife then robb likely rewards him

No they can't, he kidnapped and murdered a lady of a great house, ramsey has been sentenced to death and the moment roose admits that he knows ramsey is alive his head is going to be next to go on a spike. Roose can save his own neck if he has ramsey killed and withdraws from the Hornwood lands if his forces have retaken winterfell and moatlin particularly if he convinces the ironborn to return the hostages but ramsey's fate is sealled, Rob won't risk the Manderleys rebelling for the risk of a murderer.

Tywin isn't going to accept anyone but another lannister 'sorting' Joffrey out Not immediately no but cersei isn't particularly smart or wise

While Roose would still betray him somehow because Ramseys actions mean he must either kill Robb or kill Ramsey the Freys will not as long Stannis might prevail against the Lannisters and the Tyrells or even Tyrells and Martels.

This Ned should have started planning to either escape with his daughters or bring reiable forces to Kingslanding no later than the confrontation at Castle Darry.