Gilbert Green

He would even protect Jaime and Cersei's children.

That's not why. A timeline has been created, on this very forum, that dispense with the requirement that Jon Snow be born at the time of the TOJ battle. Long before that, timelines had been constructed for the events of the main series. Timelines are inherently speculative, but that never stopped fans before. Seems to me that you absolutely do believe that. All you are doing here is playing connect-the-dots, and filling in the blanks to create one intriguing and plausible scenario. But GRRM has left us alot of dots. We can connect the dots in different ways. And come up with different scenarios. Ned can be plagued by guilt and regret over his promise to Lyanna even if Lyanna's child is someone other than Jon. In fact that could potentially make even more sense, since Jon is kinda safe, at least from King Robert.

The nice thing about most "what if" threads, is that most are clearly labeled. They don't interest me so I avoid them.

Yes, we know Ned's character would cause him to protect children. One can devise more than one possibility that is consistent with Ned's character. Because Ned plausibly would have protected any child. Not just Jon. And bringing the child home and calling it your own child is not necessarily the best strategy. It would depend on the features of the child. So this is in effect a circular argument that starts and ends with the assumption that the child born at the TOJ was Jon. Again, I think R+L=J is a good theory. I just don't think other theorists should be forced to shut up and go away. Also I don't think the standard version of R=L=J is correct. Jon is probably too old to have been born at the time of the fight at the TOJ. If he was born to Lyanna and Rhaegar, he was born earlier in the abduction; which also leaves room for the TOJ fight to have occurred later. There's a reason fans have never been able to come up with a coherent timeline of Robert's Rebellion. They can't make it fit their fave theory. And rather than deal with the issue, they employ various stratagems to drive their adversaries off and/or make them shut up.

"Pockets of resistance". You make it sound so political. And I think the RLJ Truthers and other Strident Theory Bullies really do think that way. It is all about dominance and submission. As if new fans should not be allowed enjoy the books for themselves or to think for themselves. And you want to insult them and call them special snowflake. You seem to have trouble accepting that others have read the books as well.

I doubt you've done a scientific survey. But it does not matter. Unless these other people, on these other forums, have inside information, it is irrational to appeal to what they think. The books say that Ned is Jon's father; and only the identity of the mother is a mystery. I'm not saying we can't question the text. Lot's of decent theories give due consideration to the possibility that the text may mislead at times.

It is a good theory. I more or less subscribe to it myself. But it is a theory. A fan consensus is nothing more than a curious phenomenon. One that becomes particularly curious when it is motivated to silence dissenting voices. Why on earth should it bother you that others think differently?

So you oppose R-L=J? Or only Ashara + Brandon = Cersei; and combos like that.

I subscribe to, or am at least intrigued by, many hated theories. Some have been mentioned in this thread. Others have not been mentioned ... yet.

Why not? What you describe is 100% consistent with the principles of Agency. It is not even remotely like that. Westeros is not a constitutional monarchy. The King can appoint and dismiss his Hand at will, just as I can hire and fire my lawyer at will. Not so with the current PM of Britain. So yeah. Partly for that reason, and no doubt for other reasons, the PM of Britain cannot be called an agent of the King. However, it might be more to the point to remember that the Hand of the King is the King's SUBJECT, just as Arianne is the SUBJECT of Prince Doran Martell. Not to mention that she is his daughter. That's two reasons why, normally, she would normally be thought to owe him loyalty and obedience. A duty that will continue even after he removes her from whatever position of trust he has appointed her to.

This is morphing from a discussion about theories we hate into a discussion about people we hate.

That also goes in the Opinion-Not-Theory category. Even if future books reveal that they murdered countless babies in blood magic rituals, some people will still defend them. But "Rhaegar and Lyanna murdered babies in blood magic rituals" could actually be a theory, capable of being proven right or wrong if the series is ever finished.

Poor George. No wonder he can't finish the story. He tunes in and sees haters hating what he has planned. There are reasons to suspect Aegon is alive. The HOTU prophesy, for instance. There are also reasons to suspect that Young Griff is not Aegon. It is possible that the clues on one side are clues, and the clues on the other are red herrings. But it also could well be that both propositions are true. That Aegon SHOULD be dead, if he is not Young Griff, is merely an opinion. Not sure why we should rule out the third option. Or why the third option should be deserving of hate. I don't count them because they will never be proven right or wrong, even if GRRM finishes the series.

The Hand of the King is the King's agent. LOL all you want. Arianne was asked to act on Doran's behalf, not on her own behalf. There's a difference. Agents must inevitably exercise judgment, because they rarely have their principals sitting on their shoulders telling them exactly what to do. Nonetheless, the distinction matters. An agent who knowingly acts contrary to his principals wishes, betrays his principal. Arianne DID in the past conspire against her father's wishes. She acted on what she wanted; not on what he wanted. That's the difference. I guess when you say she wasn't conspiring against him, you merely mean she was not plotting to murder or usurp him, which is true enough.

I question many of these assumptions, even if you deem it better that I not. - I doubt very much that Myrcella is going to be queened, then killed. I think she has already been queened and killed. - I doubt very much that Myrcella is in transit, unless you mean her corpse. I think Rosamund is in transit. - I doubt very much that Cersei plans to attack Myrcella's entourage. I think Doran lied to inflame the Sand Snakes, now that he is ready to give them bloody work. - I doubt Euron controls the Shields. I think the Lords of the Shields control the Shields, and Euron has left them to their fate, exactly as he explained to Aeron. - I doubt there is going to be an attack on Oldtown, still less that it will fall if attacked.

Yes, the Hand of the King is also an agent of the king. The only reason you would not count him as a "field agent", is because he remains at court and does not venture out into the field. A person sent abroad to speak for you is often called an "ambassador". And yes, your ambassadors are also your agents. It is fair to say that Doran has asked Arianne to be his ambassador. He also asked her to send a coded message on his behalf. That's all we know for sure. Everything else is theory. How much he truly trusts her is another question. I would not be surprised if he is just testing her. I would not be surprised if he has other agents in that company, and some are tasked with keeping tabs on her. Nor would it surprise me if he has another ambassador with Young Griff. Such as Lemore? But that too is only theory. Is Feathers just a random raven minder? Or is he also Doran's agent, working directly for Doran? Dunno. Feathers (or whoever) may be a backup agent sending backup messages. And then there are the other members of the company. Why did Doran choose them, specifically? I am slightly skeptical of your eagerness to glorify Arianne's newfound Stockholm Syndrome induced Daddy Love, occasioned by her isolation and conditioning in the Tower. I wonder if a few nights in the sack with a hot dude, and she will not be merrily conspiring against her Dear Old Daddy once again. And Doran may anticipate this peril and guard against it. I'm not saying I know one way or the other. My personal hunch is that I think Doran would be a fool to trust Arianne. But of course, I also think that Arianne would be a fool to trust Doran. Neither seem like particularly admirable people to me.

Details don't matter. Granting discretion to your agents in the field is a normal part of war, because you simply cannot micromanage things from 1000 miles away. And Doran has other agents besides Arianne. I never ignored anything. Arianne was asked to signal "dragon" or "war" to a nearby army, based on her assessment of Aegon's strength. She was asked to send information. And he represented, perhaps truthfully, that he had instructed his armies to act immediately on the signal "dragon". The reason the army is not to wait for Doran's direct command is so he can potentially act more quickly. Raven flies quicker when it flies direct. I'm not. What word or phrase would you prefer? It does not matter. My point would be the same. Delegating to subordinates does not mean you are stepping down or relinquishing authority to command. "be my eyes, my ears, my voice". Doran is asking Arianne to be his agent. He's still the principal. Or, if you prefer, the Prince.

Until he chooses to reveal himself, Young Griff is a secret known only to a few. You don't just tip people off about things like that. Not unless you are sure they are on board. Yes, Dany is a potential ally. But she is also a potential enemy and rival claimant. And, other than not prematurely spilling the beans, Illyrio did try to bring Dany on board. He tried to bring her to Pentos. An introduction to YG would have surely followed. His latest plan was for YG to go to her and propose a marriage alliance or other alliance. She would have been among the first people he would have revealed himself to.

Sure. She. And she alone. And the raven. And Doran, whose instructions she is following. And the General in the pass. And all the General's men. And when Obara massacres Ser Balon Swann and all his men, that too will be an act of war. And when the Sand Snakes assassinate Tommen, that too will be an act of war. I get what you're saying about her being a but-for cause of this General's attack. But that does not make her Commander in Chief. Doran is very nervous. He wants to strike early and strike hard with maximum surprise. But the invaders were supposed to bring dragons. He has heard nothing, so far, about dragons. Maybe when Arianne finds out how YG captured Storms End, she will be impressed enough to give the okay. True. Which is why he is so nervous. Should he strike now? Or delay a little longer? Until, for instance, someone actually shows up with dragons. But none of this implies that Arianne is the new Commander in Chief. She was sent to assess the STRENGTH of YG's invasion. And if it has dragons, or is otherwise strong enough, she is to signal the army in the pass, who will act on that information. As per Doran's instructions to them both. Doran understands the need for speed. He knows he cannot micromanage every battlefield decision from 1000 miles away. That is why he has authorized his field agents to signal to each other and act on each other's signals. It does not mean he is stepping down. That's just silly.

Normally one does not countermand one's own orders as they are given. But of course, one can do so later. He asked her to send a single raven, with one of two code words. Assuming he has told her the whole truth, then the armies may take certain actions, or inactions, based on the code-word sent. With WHOM to go to war???? Depending on the code word sent, the army will either act immediately or continue to wait in the pass. Awaiting further instructions. From Doran, presumably. Because Arianne's instructions do not extend beyond that single raven. Or maybe he just wants her to think that. But she might not be the only one he has asked to send ravens. But assuming he trusts her to send that one raven, it is just that one raven. It does not mean he has stepped down and made her commander in chief. The binary choice is one between acting quickly, and continuing to wait. A raven directly from Arianne will reach them sooner than a round trip through Doran will. Allowing them to act more quickly. Granting some decision-making authority to subordinates, during wartime, in the interests of speed, efficiency, and flexibility of action, is simply a normal part of war. It does not mean you are stepping down as commander in chielf.

No. I read them. When a leader asks field agents to send signals to each other, it does not mean he is stepping down as commander in chief. Doran's armies will act on Arianne's signal if he gives them that conditional instruction. Which he can countermand at any time he is able to reach them with a command. Maybe. But I'm not sure what quote you are referring to. I find it hard to believe he counts those plans as a sure thing. It is not as though he said that war is not yet upon us because I'm waiting for Quentyn and Dany. More likely, me means that Myrcella is dead; and that means war with the Iron Throne; and he can't keep her death a secret forever using Rosamund.

Right. Her task is basically to observe and report. She has no more authority to speak on Doran's behalf than perhaps the bare minimum occasioned by time and distance, which prevent Doran from speaking directly on his own behalf.

This assumes too much. What Doran chooses to tell the once-traitorous Arianne is not necessarily all there is to know. All we can really tell from these chapters is that Doran wants Arianne to report back to him. And as to the ultimate point of her POV chapters, that's for GRRM to know and us to find out. And if GRRM is planning to surprise his readers in any way, her POV chapters may be more important for what she does not know than for what she knows. Doran tells the Sand Snakes that, for reasons he can't explain with too many ears about, "war is already upon us". He may not think he has the luxury of waiting too long for Dany; or for news of Dany. I'm not so sure of that. I anticipate that Arianne may notice a distinct family resemblance, that may tend to convince her that he is indeed her cousin. That's not to say that I think YG is really Aegon. But he might really be a Martell relative.

Young Griff already has Dorne. Dorne is scrambling for allies because "war is already upon us". Doran's wife Mellario is already with Young Griff (as Lemore). Not saying they won't get married. But they don't particularly need to.

They are (supposedly) cousins. People who are related, but not raised together, often find each-other hot. And, while I am not sure about marriage, I think some kind of sexual relationship is at least foreshadowed. I cannot prove that absolutely, because foreshadowing is a vague thing. But Arianne is not exactly known for her purity and chastity, her last BF got sliced up by Hotah, and she has not found anyone new yet. Also, GRRM has not done an "accidental incest" story yet (Tolkien once did one that, IIRC, ended in suicide). He can do it here, since Young Griff was actually born as her brother Quentyn.