Lord Varys

Well, perhaps we can now also bury the AFfC/ADwD bashing. Those books were setting things up which are coming now. Yes, it took a lot of time and all but now things are going to pay off. I mean, yes, Aeron's first chapter isn't all that interesting but it helped us to get to know him and now we have a better understanding of his present situation and pity him more than we could have had this been his first chapter. In general it seems the series is really climbing to new heights. I'm pretty sure the Red Wedding and the Frey pies are nothing compared to the things people will do and suffer through during the remainder of the series. Ran and Linda told us that George included pretty nasty stuff in the First Dornish War and the Dance, and I guess we are going to see stuff of that sort in the series now, too. I never thought Euron cared about Oldtown and the Reach in general. And he doesn't. He laughs about those foolish guys who took his poisoned gifts. He took the Shields, they will lose them. And he is not going to send any ships to their aid. Euron's plan was to set sail for Slaver's Bay after the Shield Islands conquest. He had no intention of lingering there and only did so when he realized his foolish Ironborn wouldn't follow him. What he is doing right now has little to do with his actual plans. Therefore I don't think he is after anything in the Citadel or cares what's in there. The man might have certain insights and knowledge but he most certainly isn't a scholar nor aware of Citadel conspiracies or other factions who might employ the services of the Faceless Men (Jaqen-Pate is working for somebody, either for the House of Black and White or some other faction - but I don't think that faction is Euron). The point is that Oldtown's trade will suffer if Euron ends up controlling the waters around Oldtown permanently. The Hightowers will have to choose between bending the knee or crippled/cut-off trade. And Euron isn't a maniac as far as I can see. He is cruel and ambitious piece of shit but the problem is that he isn't mad. He can pull off the stuff he is trying to do. But he can also play the nice guy. If I were Euron and had just obliterated the Redwyne fleet I'd sent envoys to Oldtown and offer the Hightowers a deal. I would need to buy time while waiting for news about Victarion and Daenerys and considering that I actually want to take the Iron Throne I'd know that I need friends and allies to accomplish this. Sparing Oldtown if my demands (say, a pretty decent tribute) are met would make me look magnanimous, and I want to look like a true king (at least from a distance). If I sack (or try to sack) Oldtown then I might be able to win a lot of riches but what will I do with them? I can throw them at the Ironborn but I cannot name a new Lord of Oldtown (not to mention that I most likely won't be able to take the Hightower, anyway) because the Tyrells will march against the city and retake it. Nor can I use the money to buy sellswords and soldiers, at least not in the near vicinity. For that I'd have to Essos or the Stepstones, but whatever people I might find there right now would afford to much. This is why I think Euron and Cersei are natural allies in the very near future. Euron needs a house with strength in the mainland and Cersei can deliver him all that. If Cersei thinks the Tyrells are involved in the murder of her uncle, the Grand Maester (and possibly later even Tommen and/or Myrcella) she will do anything in her power to destroy them. And in regards to Oldtown we should also not forget the hints indicating that Lord Leyton and the Mad Maid are into magic of their own. They might be strong enough to counter any spells Euron tries to use to attack their ships (and later their city). Depending how far in TWoW territory Aeron 1 is going to appear there would actually be a good chance to cover the battle from more than one POV. Samwell might accompany the Hightower ships for this or that reason in his second or so TWoW chapter. And who knows - perhaps the Mad Maid will be with him and show Euron what true magic looks like. Even if all this is crap, I'm with you that Euron most likely will still lack the strength to take Oldtown even if the Redwyne fleet is defeated. There certainly will be a lot fighting and death everywhere. And I really expect it to continue in the North as well as everywhere else. I mean, we still have the Weeper as a threat in the North, not to mention the as of yet unresolved conflict between Stannis and the Boltons. And honestly, I'm not sure how the Manderly ships could play any role in the plot. The fighting in the North is not near the coast and they won't go down and conquer the Vale or something like that. Daenerys most likely will bring a grand armada to Westeros, consisting of the Ironborn ships, whatever ships the Ghiscari still have (perhaps including the ships of New Ghis which can easily be conquered by Dany's troops after the Yunkish allies have been dealt with) and then, of course, the entire Volantene navy, and in addition whatever ships her people are going to take in Volantis itself (after they have gone there) and, perhaps, on the way to Westeros from Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr. Those cities all happen to lie on the way to King's Landing.

Now this is interesting. And didn't I tell you? For years and years and years. Euron Greyjoy is the big shark in the tank. The true kraken. And he'll drown his enemies. Iä, fhtagn! That said, I think it is clear that the priests that are tied to the prows of the ship have been captured on the Shields and on the Arbor. Euron sacking some portions of the Arbor isn't new information at all, by the way. We got that from Samwell's last chapter in AFfC - just as we got Euron's new coat of arms from that chapter, too. It may not have been the complete Arbor, though. Merely the wealthy and easily reachable harbors and coastal towns. Presumably Lady Mina Tyrell Redwyne and her daughter Desmera are still safe in whatever castle the Redwynes live in (after all, unlike the Shield Islanders the Redwynes wouldn't have been surprised by the Ironborn attack). If Euron had taken the Redwyne castle we most likely would have gotten a glimpse of either Mina or Desmera in the chapter (or they would at least have been mentioned). The chapter seems to be taken place shortly after the last Sam chapter because it is now pretty obvious that Aeron 2 will cover the long-expected battle between the Ironborn and the Redwyne Fleet (and apparently also involve some Hightower ships). It is a great decision by George to use the Aeron POV for that. I remember constantly arguing against that stupid idea that Aeron would really have remained behind on the Iron Islands and the idea of him covering Euron's future movements was always an option. The guys tied to the ships may be part of some ritual/magical sacrifice to unleash whatever forces Euron wants to unleash against his enemies. My bet always was (and more than ever is) on some sort of (thunder-)storm only attacking the Redwyne ships. Krakens and other sea monsters could come in handy, too. We have to keep in mind that the Redwyne Fleet is the biggest naval force in Westeros, consisting of two hundred warships and an unknown number of trading ships (although the latter most likely aren't with Paxter right now). The Redwynes greatly outnumber Euron's pitiful force both quantitatively and qualitatively (they have more actual warships). Unless Euron severely rigs the odds to his advantage he has no chance to possibly winning this battle. And he'll use magic to accomplish this. If he doesn't, he'll lose even if he wins. Any ideas about him trying to take Oldtown (and/or failing at that) before he has dealt with the Redwynes are now pretty much dead. He is pretty much dismissive about this whole Reach thing and the islands he captured as we all knew he would. I've said it repeatedly: The man is after the Iron Throne, and you don't win the Iron Throne by plundering the south coast or trying permanently conquer and hold land there. Because, you know, the Tyrells will take back all the land he has taken eventually. That's just a matter of time. And right now while Euron is preparing to fight the Redwynes Garlan and Willas might already prepare to retake the Shields. Euron might have the power to sack Oldtown after his victory over the Redwyne and Hightower ships but he would be foolish to do so. If he crushes his enemies in the sea the Sunset Sea and the Summer Sea close to the Reach and Dorne will be his, and his alone. He will be able to dictate his terms to Lord Leyton Hightower, and Lord Hightower will bend the knee. What else could he do? The Hightowers are not going to risk their wealth and their city and the lives of their people in a foolish attempt of open resistance. They were vassals of the Ironborn once, they can be vassals of the Ironborn again. As to the visions: Those are tricky. I think we should not necessarily see Aeron's visions there as 'true prophetic visions' but rather (at least in part) as nightmares and visions created by his own fear and desperation. They may be triggered by the shade of the evening - but then, we don't know whether all that stuff has to be genuine. Not to mention that Aeron's crazy religious views certainly are coloring and influencing the interpretations of the stuff he sees. And Euron clearly messes with his head and likes to torture him by playing on religion. He may think he has become a living god (although I doubt that) but the reason why he plays that card with Aeron is because it is a nice way to mock and torture him. I think we can see evidence of that in the importance Aeron's visions give to Euron impaling/defeating gods. Those visions were clearly shaped by Aeron's fear and desperation. For him his elder brother always was a monster. That said, the idea that Euron will win and sit on the Iron Throne for a time is not far-fetched at all. That might still happen. Although this then most likely would mean that Aegon is either going to die soon or is never going to sit on it because it would be very difficult to squeeze in both Euron and Aegon before Dany finally takes it. On the other hand, we don't yet know where exactly this chapters fits into the time line in comparison to the Meereen chapters. We know that Victarion isn't going to meet Dany at Meereen (assuming he survives the coming battle) and we do know that Moqorro has joined Victarion to neutralize the threat Euron poses to Daenerys. I still think the Dusky Woman either is the Faceless Man in Euron's service (or at least his agent) whose mission it was to keep Vic under control and ensure that everything went according to Euron's plan. Both with Vic's wound as well as with Dragonbinder. Moqorro's arrival and actions seem to have messed with both, potentially dealing a major (or even fatal) blow to Euron's campaign for the Iron Throne (at least insofar as it involves Daenerys and/or dragons). We have to keep in mind that Euron's plan isn't to conquer Westeros the way the Conqueror did. He wants (or rather: wanted) to do it as Daenerys Targaryen's king consort, not (just) with brute force. That wouldn't work considering that any dragons he might steal or get via Dany wouldn't be big enough to pull off Aegon's trick. The tall and shadowed woman with hands of white fire next to Euron in the dream/vision is, most likely (and if we assume she does not embody a principle/concept), Cersei. Aeron would recognize her face if she wasn't shadowed and if she wasn't somebody he (or we, the readers) could recognize there would be no reason for George to keep her face shadowed. There were hints to a possible union between Cersei and Euron as early as ASoS (remember how this comes up at court after the Lannisters learn that Balon is dead and Euron the new guy in charge?). I've long said it and I'll repeat it again: If we assume that Cersei isn't done, and if we assume she'll play an important role in the future of the series as it is right now then her teaming up with Euron Greyjoy is the best and most logical choice for her. Especially if her important role will be about mindless revenge and ultimate destruction. Right now, Cersei still can live for Tommen and Myrcella. But if they die - and according to Maggy's prophecy they will die - then she will have no reason left to play nice or care about what happens to, well, Westeros and the entire world. She can afford to literally set the world aflame (although not with the wildfire stuff). Cersei is set up to leave KL soon or she will die or end up in an even worse position. Either because the Tyrells decide to rid themselves of her or because Aegon will take the city. If she does so after Tommen/Myrcella died (or actually inadvertently causes the deaths of one or both her children) teaming up with Euron (who is also fighting the Tyrells) will appear as the most natural (and logical) choice in the world. Vice versa, Daenerys is not coming soon. Regardless what happens at Meereen. And even if everything there went according to Euron's plans all Vic/the Ironborn could deliver to Euron would be one (or two) not so big dragon(s). That wouldn't be enough. Not by far. The news about Dany being dead/missing should force Euron to change his plans just as it will force Doran/Arianne and Aegon to change theirs. And in such a scenario an alliance with Cersei and Casterly Rock might look as promising for Euron as it does for Cersei. And, again, as I've mentioned before many times: There must be some sort of plot-related reason why the hell George decided to have Euron attack (and thus antagonize) the Reach rather than the West. Casterly Rock and Lannisport lie a lot closer to the Iron Islands and were obviously a much richer and more promising target. Euron could have bought the alliance and loyalty of the Ironborn much easier by throwing the riches of Lannisport at them. But for some reason he did not do that - which still enables him to eventually team up with the Lannisters (or at least a branch of that house). Plot-wise the weakening of the Reach done by the Ironborn is intricately connected with the Aegon plot because George has to give us a reason why his campaign is going to work and gather momentum. He could not have Aegon just win (and hold) the Iron Throne against the entire might of the Reach. And the idea that any Reach Lord would just suddenly team up with some Targaryen pretender after most/all of them reaped rich rewards in the wake of the War of the Five Kings from the Iron Throne would make little sense, too. Aegon has to exploit some weakness in the South to succeed and Euron attacking the Reach helped with that (although Euron certainly isn't - and never was - just a plot device to help Aegon). The stuff about the bleeding star clearly refers to the red comet and Aeron reinterpreting what it meant. His visions/mind connect it with Euron but even if it heralds 'the world being broken and renewed' there is no good reason that Euron is the person the prophecy is referring to (that would be Daenerys). Euron is just planning to high-jack her, use her, or usurp her place somehow. As to @Ran speculating about a connection between Euron and the Others: I think we can safely say that Euron may turn out to be a failed (or twisted) greenseer who finally began exploring his full potential after he captured the Qartheen warlocks and began drinking shade of the evening. One wonders whether Bloodraven made some sort of mistake when he contacted him as a child (if he did so). The idea that the Heart of Winter somehow got into his mind is also intriguing. I mean, we know that Bloodraven showed Bran what is 'living' up there in the dream back in AGoT. If he can do that the Others might also be able to make use of this kind of magic. Not to mention that weirwood magic and stuff might literally cut two ways if we assume the original Others were either created by Children of the Forest or literally be twisted Children of the Forest. I'd prefer it if it turned out that the Others weren't just sentient weapons gone mad but actually beings directed by a person or a group of people who originally only had the best interests of the Children at heart. But that remains to be seen. But I don't think the vision of the woman refers to a female Other or stands for anything related to the Others. Euron might inadvertently work for the Others and might also eventually ally with them and betray humanity during the fight against the Others (like Roose and/or Ramsay might, too) but I don't see him working actively for them, yet. As to the Valyrian armor: Well, one guesses this also comes from the treasures of the Qartheen. Such armor hasn't been seen since the Doom, apparently, so one should assume that Euron must have gotten this from the same people/source he got Dragonbinder from. It doesn't seem likely Euron was personally in Valyria, but perhaps the Undying of old were. Qarth either might have warred with Valyria once (and won) or, more likely, they might have allied themselves with the dragonlords of old (or at least a faction). Anyway, it is more likely to assume Euron got that one from the Qartheen than from Valyria. And, well, the idea that the Targaryens on Dragonstone/of Westeros didn't own armor made of Valyrian steel makes little sense. I mean, they were dragonlords, right? If anyone in Valyria should have had access to Valyrian steel it would have been the dragonlords. And Aenar the Exile should have had money aplenty to buy himself such a suit after he had sold all his holdings in Valyria and the Lands of the Long Summer. Even a smaller dragonlord house should have owned more money than a kingdom was worth.

I'm pretty sure either Tyrion or Jaime will kill Cersei. If the whole stuff actually refers to her literally dying and not something else. What was the exact phrasing? 'Choking the life out of her' or something like that? That could have some figurative meaning, too. Say, some actions which completely unmake everything she has ever dreamed of accomplishing.

@Free Northman Reborn I've no idea how many men the Ironborn have, actually. I'm fine with 20,000, I guess. Vic could only have had 5,000-7,000 if we go with an average of 50-70 men per ship. I don't have any idea how many men you need to man one of the Iron Fleet's ship, either. The important factor will be who ends up controlling the sea. Right now that's Euron. I agree that conventional warfare and odds suggest that Paxter should win but I think Euron will magically rig the odds in his favor. Say, by having his warlocks conjure up a storm or tornado that obliterates the entire Redwyne fleet. We know Melisandre could create a wind to carry Stannis' fleet quickly to Eastwatch so I think a group of Qartheen warlocks whose magics get stronger and stronger every day might be to create a much bigger storm. Thereafter the Reach men will essentially be helpless. Euron will be able to move quickly and strike suddenly wherever he wants. Oldtown will bend the knee not because it has been defeated or taken but because its wealth is based on free trade - something that won't be possible if Euron attacks every ship trying to get to or leaving Oldtown. The Oldtown merchants (and the Hightowers themselves) should care much more about their profits than their overlords. I'm not sure what immediate help a dragon would be for Euron. The man is Ironborn, not a Targaryen. Him being a dragonrider certainly will impress some people but this doesn't mean he suddenly has a legal claim to the Iron Throne. And neither of Dany's dragons will give him the power to burn armies, cities, or castles to the ground. Euron's plan was to marry Daenerys and subsequently become a dragonrider as the consort of a dragonriding queen. With the help of Dany he hoped he could win the Iron Throne because she had a legal claim to it as well as a decent chance to win the support of many remaining Targaryen loyalists. But magic, gold, Cersei, and schemes could still get him pretty far even without Dany. Not to mention that we only know parts of his plan. That he actually has Qartheen warlocks in his service he didn't reveal yet in the series. There was just a vague hint in that direction. He might have other plans we have yet no idea about.

The hints towards Euron set him up as the major antagonist of the second part of the series. The man has sorcerers at his disposal, he has really great ambitions, and possibly himself magical talents (skinchanging/greenseeing if the parallels to Bran aren't a coincidence - which is very unlikely). Then there is Moqorro's hint that Euron - not Victarion! - is the biggest threat/enemy of Daenerys. Dragonbinder might be part of that, but the other part of that might be a vision of the future - Euron Greyjoy as the scourge of Westeros by the time Dany finally arrives. The idea that Euron could only become a big threat with a dragon - which he most likely won't get now that Moqorro has intervened - doesn't make much sense. The idea that Dragonbinder could cause a dragon to fly thousands of leagues to a new master is pretty far-fetched in any scenario. The only way how Euron could claim a dragon is, I think, if he traveled incognito with Victarion to Slaver's Bay. But that's not all that likely. Westeros is weakened right now. If Euron can crush the Redwyne fleet the southern parts of the Reach will eventually bent the knee to him. If he can make an alliance with Aurane Waters and other pirates he might even have the strength to attack KL. In any case, if the Redwynes are gone the Sunset Sea and Summer Sea close to Westeros is his. To take the Iron Throne he would need allies he could trust and work with, though. Well, my guess is that Cersei will eventually end up with Euron. They are the ideal pair to wreak really havoc in Westeros and become a threat for the entire continent if they decide team up and begin a crusade of destruction. Qyburn and Pyat Pree most likely would also gladly exchange notes on certain things. I'm not sure Cersei has a clear picture what's going on in the South and if she is fleeing the Tyrells then going by ship is the best way to do so. And, who knows? Perhaps she is not going to flee exactly but trying to get to Euron to offer an alliance. The man certainly could need the wealth of Casterly Rock for his campaign. And there has to be an innate narrative reason why the hell Euron chose to attack the Reach rather than the West. Lannisport was a lot closer, after all. And by the time Euron struck Tywin was already dead. But I guess such an alliance would only make sense from Cersei's POV if both Tommen and Myrcella are already dead. So it might take still some time - if we assume the idea is correct. But if George wants Cersei to remain a player in the game then she has to make some sort of alliance. And Euron can no longer hope to team up with Dany. She is not going to come soon.

If Cersei decides to flee, she has to go by ship, I think. The Riverlands are far to dangerous, not to mention that Mace has more than enough men to pursue her. Her escape can't remain a secret for long, after all.

Could be. But I actually find Aegon would be damned stupid or acting irrationally if he did not press his advantage against KL if he is so close. He wants the Iron Throne, not get absorbed in some squabbles at the other end of the Realm. Helping the Hightowers could win him their allegiance only if he won there. But he doesn't have any ships. So lets assume he fights off Euron but the Ironborn just retreat at sea. Does this mean the Hightowers will give him thousands of men to fill up his ranks? No, because they can't. Not as long as the Ironborn threat is still a thing. A siege of Oldtown is also not very likely to happen. Euron doesn't have the men for that. He could stage a naval blockade of some sort but no land-based siege. The Hightowers seem to have nearly all of their strength back in their lands, and we don't know how many men they actually control. Could be 20,000 or more. What I could see is that Aegon dispatches the second Dornish army - the one in the Prince's Pass - to support the Reach men against the Ironborn. That would be a grand gesture and most likely help him win the friendship of the Reach in general. Whether he'll be able to do this would depend on the decisiveness of his victory over the Tyrell army. If that is a stalemate or causes great losses on both sides he'll be in trouble and need the full support of Dorne to take KL. But I think there is no chance that personally invades the Reach while KL is not yet taken. He has to have the Iron Throne and the Red Keep to finally become a king. The plan clearly is to crown and anoint Prince Aegon King Aegon VI Targaryen in the Great Sept of King's Landing, not in some castle or on some battlefield. The people involved in this movement know how important symbolism like that is. If Aegon takes the whole thing the Stannis or Renly he'll be nothing but another pretender. Not to mention that from a military point of view it would be a grave strategic mistake to keep a Tyrell-controlled KL in the rear. Unless Mace is not defeated completely - and if that happens then there is no reason not to take KL - the army there will remain a threat. Should Aegon abandon the Stormlands the Tyrells from KL or a Lannister army raised in the meantime could actually retake Storm's End and cut off his ability to retreat to Essos. There is no way the conservatives in the Golden Company will allow this. Not to mention that with Dorne joining them and Varys scheming in KL there is no reason for them to assume they won't be able to take KL. The time for grand gestures and campaigns to win the love of the people and the lords is when the throne is Aegon's, not right now.

That is not going to go quickly. In fact, any outbreaks of the Grey Plague would first hit the Stormlands and possibly KL depending where the hell Jon Connington is when that happens. He isn't in the Reach right now. We don't know how many Stormland levies were with Renly, but we do know that 'King Renly' effectively did a royal progress throughout the Reach not the Stormlands so most of the men with him at Bitterbridge would have been Reach men. Whether they all were soldiers isn't clear, and I'm very inclined to doubt that. But anyway - the bulk of those men showed up at KL and are essentially still there minus the men who fell at the Blackwater and under Tarly's command when the Northmen were butchered at Duskendale. I've already said it above - unless some people didn't return home or disappear into thin air without being mentioned in the books then the Mace might still command 50,000-60,000 men. Tyrion tosses around even greater numbers when he talks to Oberyn in ASoS and he might be right because the bulk of Stannis' men (Stormlanders and Reach men) abandoned him when they saw Renly's ghost. However, I guess the majority of them might have gone back home because they did not have their liege requesting their presence at the capital (for the royal wedding and so on). Perhaps a good portion of the Tyrell men returned home with Olenna and Alerie and Garlan after the wedding between Tommen and Margaery, but we don't know that for sure. Nor do we know what happened to those 10,000 additional men that were remaining back at Highgarden with Mace when Renly began his march. There is no reason to believe that Mace took those men with him when he met with Lord Tywin near the Blackwater. Logistics make it more likely that only a small contingent of men raced from Bitterbridge to Highgarden and then back there to take Renly's remaining troops there (about 60,000) to KL. And regardless of those numbers we still have the fact to consider that the Tyrells can still raise armies back home. Garlan and Willas are doing that right now, and the impression we get is that the Hightowers more or less stayed completely out of the war. No sons of Lord Leyton joined Renly, so the best idea is to assume that they only sent a token force to Mace and Renly (I think Cat sees a few Hightower banners at Renly's camp). Again, the potential for treason or rebellion in the Reach is not very good right now. The Reach itself is threatened by the Ironborn. The chance that many lords living there are going to plan to begin a two-front war (themselves against Tyrell/Tommen loyalists and the Ironborn) at the same time makes no sense at all. Some lords close to the Stormlands who feel sort of safe from the Ironborn because they are far away from the coasts might consider joining Aegon - but even they must know that the long ships of the Ironborn can go far up the streams and rivers of the Reach connected to the Mander, and they know from their histories what this means. Again, the talk about 'the friends in the Reach' is from a time when Laswell Peake had no idea that the Reach was under heavy threat/attacks from King Euron. They only learn about that after they have taken Griffin's Roost, after all. And the overall consideration of that is that they find that pretty promising because this means they don't have to worry about their rear (i.e. a sudden invasion of the Golden Company-occupied territory from the Reach). They can safely focus on the Tyrells troops at KL. I see little chance that Aegon gains many Reach lords/men willing to fight against their fellow Reach men in the Tyrell armies at KL. He might be willing to get their support if he offers to fight against the Ironborn, but he is most likely not going to do that right now because he first has to deal with the Tyrell army marching against Storm's End. If Dorne would join Aegon one of Doran's armies - the one in the Prince's Pass - could offer help to the Tyrells and Hightowers dealing with the Ironborn. And that would actually be wisest course if Aegon wants to win the friendship and allegiance and support of the Reach lords. Attacking the Reach/Oldtown wouldn't help him one bit. If he does not want the Dornish army to fight against the Ironborn he should use both Dornish armies in his attempt to take KL. But if George's plan is to set up Aegon very quickly as a new and successful King of Westeros who actually deserves that name then the best way would be to have him win both the Iron Throne and the allegiance/friendship of the Reach at the same time. And that would work best if he took KL while other people fighting in his name would also help fight off the Ironborn. Whether this will mark Euron's end is unclear. I don't think so, actually, because if the Redwyne fleet is destroyed then the Dornishmen could at best hope to help defend the coasts around Oldtown. Permanently retaking the Shields wouldn't be an option while Euron has the advantage on the sea. I've thought a little bit about the idea of corpses rising everywhere around Westeros and I don't think that's likely to happen. At least not until the Wall is falling (which should still take considerable time). And even then - we don't know how this spell works or if a mass zombie apocalypse is something George has in mind for us. Not to me

I do that, but it is not really necessary. He is the Hand of the King. The office could remain vacant without causing any harm or hurting his power base. But considering that right now Mace has every opportunity and all the real power in his hands I don't see him not proclaiming himself the new Lord Regent at once, perhaps even naming Randyll Tarly Protector of the Realm. He can throw around titles now. If he for some reason doesn't claim the Regency and leaves the office vacant then Cersei still can't claim it should she win her trial because Mace and the Tyrell-dominated Small Council will appoint a new regent, no one else. @HelenaExMachina The security thing could work just as fine. Mace could easily use the fact that the Lannister guardsmen 'allowed the Grand Maester and the Lord Regent to be murdered within the walls of the Red Keep itself' as a pretext to take the Queen Dowager and King Tommen under his own 'protection' to 'guarantee their safety'. However, Mace does not have to be rational or care about opportunities Cersei might not had. It is very difficult to prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that somebody had no opportunity to do something - Cersei could, for instance, have made use of some (imagined) secret tunnels to get to Pycelle's apartments personally. She could have acted through a Lannister man she previously seduced and corrupted who happened to guard her now, or she could simply have used witchcraft or sorcery. Quite difficult to get out of such an accusation. And if Mace did actually accuse Cersei of such crimes people would come forth and testify against her. They did so during Tyrion's trial, too, after all. It is not that Cersei ever was a very popular person with many friends, not to mention right now with her reputation utterly destroyed. Who would come forth and try to defend her against such accusation if it is clear that they would have to face Mace Tyrell to do so? Yeah, I think I've tossed around the idea that Cersei might try to use Ser Robert Strong to abduct/free/save Tommen only to get him killed in the process since before ADwD came out. The whole trial-by-combat thing was already a possibility back then. And I'd also agree that Cersei would actually want to wait and take Myrcella with her, too, but we don't know what effect the murders of Pycelle and Kevan will have on her. The Epilogue suggested that she wanted Taena back in KL and intended to take steps to deal with her uncle somehow. But we still don't know whom she saw as her greatest enemy after the walk, or whom she would like to kill first. Kevan's death might shatter her original plan to play the meek woman - that seemed to have worked for her uncle but it certainly will not work with Mace Tyrell or Randyll Tarly. I'm really not sure whether she can wait very long. Every day that passes will give Mace the opportunity to consolidate his power and take away her last remaining allies. Qyburn could be killed or just bought by the Tyrells, after all. And with that she would most likely also lose Ser Robert Strong. I once also entertained the idea of Cersei using Ser Robert to simply murder Mace and Tarly (and I think that idea will cross her mind once she fully understands how unstoppable that creature is) but that would be a stupid move because it would not remove the Tyrell army in the city nor save Tommen from 'Tyrion'. We should trust Varys' assessment there that the whole crossbow parallel will cause Cersei to jump on the Tyrion train and that should really increase her paranoia very much. Even killing Mace might not make her feel secure - even if we also assumed his army would disappear with him. In general I think the only good way to interpret the development in KL throughout AFfC and ADwD is to see this all as preparation for Aegon's success. Remember how pointless and convoluted/strange that plot felt without the knowledge that Aegon was preparing his invasion/already invading at the same time? With Dany not coming soon there seemed to be little to no good reason to destroy Lannister power so quickly or have the people in charge get caught up in petty little schemes. But in light of the fact that George seems to want seat Aegon on the Iron Throne as soon as possible and install him as (at least one of) the major opponent(s) of Dany in the second half of the series this whole scenario actually makes sense. Any scenario without Aegon in Westeros would have most likely focused on Cersei and the Lannisters consolidating their power to set them up as formidable enemies against Daenerys.

The problem with the Tyrells is that they are so many. And there are especially many in Oldtown, so there can be no question that the Hightower will remain in their camp. Especially during a time in which the entire Reach is threatened by an outside force. Keep in mind that the Golden Company doesn't seem to be aware of the Ironborn situation back in ADwD when those friends in the Reach are even discussed. They might be there but still powerless/unable to join Aegon because there levies are either with Mace/Tarly or Willas/Garlan trying to fight of the Ironborn. @Illyrio Mo'Parties Cersei doesn't have to be locked up in a tower cell. But right now she was already sort of locked up by Kevan. And Kevan was also adamant about Cersei having no hand in Tommen's education in the future making it very likely she is no longer as close to Tommen as she once was. While Kevan was Lord Regent the well-being of the boy lay in his hands (and prior to that in the hands of the Small Council). I don't see how you can make the murder of Kevan and the Cersei trial thing a special case. Even a more special case would have been the imprisonment of both the queen and the Queen Regent, and after that power reverted back to the Small Council (which technically Lord Orton Merryweather, the King's Hand and Master of Laws, should have led). But considering that he fled the city rather than facing the wrath of his own liege lord, Mace Tyrell, the rule of the Realm and the city fell to Ser Harys Swyft and Grand Maester Pycelle who offered the Regency to Kevan. That was apparently not contested or challenged by either Mace and Tarly when they arrived in the city because Kevan really became Lord Regent. Earlier on in AGoT we also see that the Small Council has to confirm the Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm (Eddard Stark) in his office. Right now Cersei simply lacks the power to do anything. 1. We know she is guarded by Kevan's men and watched by a bunch of septas working for the High Septon who also sleep with her. 2. Cersei has not enough men to stage a coup against the Tyrells like she could back when Robert died. 3. Cersei does no longer have the prestige and the reputation to even try to win over people by seducing them or flatter them. 4. The closest Lannister army is the Riverlands and that one should already be on its way west. Even if they came to Cersei's aid - which even Jaime did not when he read her letter - they would be no match against the Tyrells. Cersei also has no way of contacting them. Any armies in the West would first have to raised and then march through the Riverlands to reach KL - right now a not so good idea. In any case, this would take quite some time. Even if we take the most favorable series of events after Kevan's murder - say, that Cersei learns first what has happened because some loyal Lannister guardsman or servant stumbles on the corpses at first for some reason and he gains access to Maegor's and the Queen Dowager (which is very unlikely) then there is still no scenario imaginable in which only Cersei learns what has transpired. Mace and Tarly will be informed as well, and right now Cersei lacks any sort of legal power/authority. She cannot even presume to attend a Small Council session. If we assume George intends to make Cersei reacquire what power she had (and keep in mind that she didn't have all that much real power when she was Queen Regent anyway which is made clear by the fact that nobody came to her help when she was arrested) then he has put her in a very bad position to sell us such a plot convincingly. He would have to dumb down Mace and Tarly a lot and make Cersei suddenly a lot smarter and less afraid than she was previously. Say, there would be a good explanation as to why Mace and Tarly don't replace Kevan's men guarding Cersei with their own. Or why they don't accuse her of Kevan's murder. Or why they simply do not put a considerable amount of effort/manpower on the resolution of the whole Cersei Lannister problem. In addition, there is Cersei's growing paranoia to consider. She starts to believe that everybody is out to get her and Tommen. She knows that she didn't kill Pycelle and Kevan but the manner in which this was done will suggest Tyrion had a hand in that one, too (being in cahoots with the Tyrells just as he was when he murdered Tywin). And that is very likely to push her over the edge for good. She already feared in AFfC that Tyrion might still hide in the walls and only bide his time to come out and murder Tommen as well. The idea that she would want to remain in the Red Keep even if she rose to power again is not very likely. She'll still fear for her own and Tommen's life. That's why she is most likely trying to flee the city with Tommen in tow. And her trial or events following her trial might actually provide her with an opportunity to do this. Getting Tommen out of the city or him dying during such an attempt should also help to speed up the Aegon plot. If there is no longer a king in KL then it is much more likely that there won't be a siege or another battle between the Tyrells and the Golden Company. But Cersei would still remain a nuisance and a player of sorts who might rise to become a severe threat later in the story (either during the Second Dance or during the grand finale).

That was mean, among others I think. Some answers to the comments on the NAB post about the new Arianne sample. @Illyrio Mo'Parties George has long ago said that we'll eventually see Casterly Rock. But the same goes for Highgarden, so we'll just have to wait and see. However, it seems chapters were supposed to take place at Casterly Rock in AFfC at one point. Mace certainly wouldn't jump ships and join Aegon at once. But if he is defeated in battle or abandoned by a majority of his vassals then this certainly would be a possibility. And Aegon actually can't afford not try to woo the Tyrells. They are simply too powerful and well-connected in the Reach, even if a decent portion of the Reach Lords would not longer follow Mace's lead. The man controls about 100,000 men, after all. The friends in the Reach would show the colors first, that's clear. Perhaps Houses Peake and Merryweather - and of course Mathis Rowan, but he is more a Targaryen loyalist than a friend of the Golden Company. You are mistaken about Cersei's status. 1. She has already confessed certain crimes (sleeping around) and was forced to take her walk for that. That's not going away. She is confirmed slut, the rabble has thrown shit at her, and she crawled all fours through the streets. You don't recover easily from that. Cersei may wear silk and satin and jewels again, but every man and woman in KL interacting with her will remember that she is neither something special nor important. In fact, she is inferior to any decent woman in KL because she is a confirmed slut. 2. Cersei winning her trial is not going to restore the Regency to her. She is no longer Queen Regent. That is over, permanently. On the day she was arrested the Small Council has taken the Regency from her and given the office to Ser Kevan Lannister. Who has lost it now, too. But a new regent will be appointed, most likely Mace, and certainly not Cersei because she no longer has a voice on the Small Council (and no crony, either). Pycelle is dead, too, and Harys Swyft will never vote against the Tyrells. Which means Mace and Tarly will decide who the new regent will be. If a new regent is named at all. Mace is the Hand of the King. He speaks with Tommen's Voice in any case, regardless whether there is a regent or not. But even if Nym suddenly materialized and was accepted at the Small Council and she and Swyft would vote against Mace and Tarly then Mace would still win because in a stalemate he would just speak with the King's Voice and settle the matter. If Cersei wins her trial she won't be executed or otherwise punished. And she'll remain Lady of Casterly Rock (a title and lordship she'll hold until her death or until such time as King Tommen attaints her). 3. The Lannisters don't have an army in the city. They have their Red Cloaks but that's it. A few hundred men, perhaps a little bit more. The City Watch's loyalty is unclear and if they are Varys' now they won't support Cersei. They will support Varys and Varys wants to destroy the regime of King Tommen not help that Cersei. Doing 'the queen's good work' means creating a civil war and chaos on the streets of KL or even in the Red Keep, not changing the power dynamic in Cersei's favor. In addition, it seems as if the sparrows were already as strong or stronger than the City Watch back in AFfC. At least in their part of the city. Tommen/the City Watch can, most likely, not risk attack the sparrows without risking a general uprising in the city. And that they could certainly not control. Only as long as the Tyrell army remains in KL is there any chance that the High Septon will be forced to behave himself. If the Tyrells are gone the real power in the city will quickly shift towards the Great Sept. I know how the news about Quentyn would/will travel, but my point is that the more important news that will travel much more quickly is Daznak's Pit and perhaps (prior to that) Dany's peace treaty with Yunkai and her marriage to Hizdahr. All that will already destroy the alliance Dorne wanted to make with Dany. Once those news reach Doran and Arianne - and they will travel much more quickly because those events are more important/interesting and happened earlier in time. The Quentyn story might be of lesser importance in light of the fact that the people spreading that tale will also have the news about the battle(s) or Meereen and the outcome, perhaps even the identity of a new dragonrider. Yeah, Hotah actually might actually give us core pieces in the whole Jon Snow mystery without realizing it himself while interacting/talking to some Daynes. Mace isn't glued to Tommen because Tommen is still a boy and he is the middle of a war and his daughter might be soiled goods and incapable of getting with child from that boy for years to come. If Tommen goes down, Mace has and will jump ship. He is not Tommen's father, after all. In fact, he should hate Tommen's entire family by now.

@Manderly's Rat Cook That doesn't make much sense because Lysono Maar apparently had nothing to do with the capture of Storm's End. If he had been there he wouldn't have met Arianne halfway on the road. Not to mention that he didn't seem to be at Griffin's Roost yet back in 'The Griffin Reborn' so he might have been with a contingent of sellswords that only just recently made its way to Griffin's Roost. I think Euron had no idea that Aegon even existed. But he might be able to use Aegon's campaign to his own advantage because it will inevitably weaken his opponents and allow him to grow stronger and recruit more people to his cause while his enemies are fighting each other. If Euron destroys the Redwyne fleet then pretty much all the southern coasts of Westeros (and perhaps even Dorne's) are his. Whether he can transform that control over land into loyalty/armies is another matter.

The followers of the Faith are most likely not monotheists in our understanding but practice in a form of monolatrism - meaning that they only worship the Seven (either as one god with seven faces or seven individual gods) but do not deny the existence and power of other gods. The very formula of 'the old gods and the new' acknowledges that pretty much everybody in Westeros recognizes the old gods as gods. There might be extreme views in which the old gods, the Ironborn gods, and some foreign gods are seen as demons rather than gods but that seems to be a minority point of view (at least until recently). We have to keep in mind that even in the days before the Conquest when the Andals ruled the South there were little to no crusades or campaigns against the remaining followers of the old gods, apparently especially not in those kingdoms where the First Men royalty remained in control. And what we learn about the origins of the High Septon makes it clear that this office was only created after the Faith had reached and taken root at Oldtown - which was considerably late during the Andal conquest - so the power of the High Septon and the Faith Militant throughout the entirety of the Andal kingdoms in the years before and after the Targaryen Conquest was most likely a relatively new thing, but nonetheless a reality. But by that time the rulers of the Faith no longer seemed to have had any issues in principle with the remains of the old religion in the South. Especially not with the weirwood trees in the godswoods. I mean, the fact that the Three Singers stand to this day in the godswood of Highgarden confirm that there was never a religious war fought in the Reach. But I digress. I think there is no reason not to assume that a septon (who might have known that he himself was a First Man descended if he was highborn) would acknowledge the existence of other gods. Especially not such gods who feature in one of the founding legends of Westeros itself.

@Rhaenys_Targaryen We cannot say what Mace will do or what his goals are because we don't see into his head. But I see no indication at all that he cares about not antagonizing the Dornishmen. That line of behavior is there since ASoS. He even resents the idea that Oberyn might cross his lands to get to KL. Kevan is the voice of reason on the Small Council, Tarly and Mace don't give a damn. And neither seem to be particularly concern about the threats the Reach is facing. They are confident that they are able to deal with any threat. Myrcella's servants might still be in the Water Gardens. We don't know who went with her. On the other hand, if Nym would be delivering Rosamund instead of Myrcella Dorne would still have Myrcella as a hostage. And Nym is expendable, actually. I actually see no reason why Myrcella would not tell Cersei exactly what happened to her. She is her mother, and she should trust her a lot more than Arianne. I know that Loras did not personally search Dragonstone. But Mace tells that it was done under Loras' watch. Which means the guy seems to be conscious and in charge, not dying. And Mace doesn't seem to be overly distraught over the fate of his son and daughter. Keep in mind, Loras is his favorite son and Margaery is only daughter. If he thought Loras were dying he most likely would go to Dragonstone after he had dealt with the Margaery situation. Perhaps he would even go right now if he was dying. You know, so that he could be at his side when he dies. And the Margaery marriage cuts both ways: Mace could also have her marriage annulled on the basis of it being not consummated. He is not glued to Tommen and we'll really have to wait to see if he wants to continue working with the Lannisters if the only Lannister left is actually Tommen. Which is the situation right now.

@Rhaenys_Targaryen Well, the idea is that if Doran foresees/suspects that the real Myrcella will implicate his heir, Princess Arianne, in a plot against King Tommen then he might have descended to buy himself more time by saying he would sent Myrcella back while actually sending Rosamund - she might not know what had happened. Cersei certainly will recognize her, but that's not the point. Myrcella is described as a smart young girl in AFfC. She would realize if she has been tricked/manipulated, and subsequently decide to tell her mother the truth. Mace might still not care about offending Dorne because he is not necessarily glued to Tommen until the very end. He could join Aegon, too. Loras' situation might not be so dire, it seems, considering that Mace talks about Loras searching Dragonstone. That doesn't suggest the boy is still dying. He might have recovered somewhat.

@Rhaenys_Targaryen Hm. I always thought Nym and Tyene actually intended to infiltrate the court without telling anyone who they actually were. I'm not sure they will be able to pull something like that off if at least Nym's identity is known - and Tyene should better get into the city outside of the Dornish party or else the plan to get herself into the Great Sept will never work. The High Septon is never going to allow a wanton Sand Snake to infiltrate his flock if she is recognizable as such. I'm in general in agreement that such poison plots and assassination plans could work, mind you. I'm just not sure they will have the time to prepare things for that. If Nym actually takes her council seat she should be content with sitting back and fueling the Tyrell-Lannister mistrust and hatred. After all, she and Tyene will also learn about Aegon soon (or already have met him if they chanced upon him) and one suspects that they are smart enough to realize what Arianne and her father might have been up to the entire time. A Targaryen restoration plan of some sort. But, again, Myrcella knows who actually tried to kill her, remember? If she is united with her mother there is a pretty big chance she will spill the beans, and then Nym will feel the wrath of the Iron Throne. Mace wants to end this stupid Dornish betrothal, too, if you check the Epilogue. Or, hey, how do you guys think are the chances that Doran has actually sent Myrcella to KL? Perhaps it is Rosamund Lannister instead? Wouldn't that be neat... The very fact that Doran has agreed to send Myrcella back instead of stalling the whole thing is a pretty huge hint that he has already made his decision to enter into a war. He still hopes to do it for Quentyn and Dany, of course, but if Myrcella is truly going home and gets there alive then war might already be inevitable.

Yeah, I'm fine with that interpretation.

No, they did not wear crowns as princes. They wore circlets or tiaras, or something like that. Not crowns. Only the king and queen wear crowns. Actually, this could also happen after Aegon has taken the city. They are not going to crown and style him king before he sits the Iron Throne, anyway. Up until they take KL he'll remain Prince Aegon. From a political perspective a marriage to Myrcella would actually be pretty smart because this way his actual parentage is not going to matter all that much. Either he is king by right of his wife or because he is Rhaegar's son - that way he should be able to get even those people to accept him more easily who think he is just a fraud. @LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse 1. That is not the point. The point is that even if the Golden Company (and whatever fools join them) will not know in advance that they are going to win 'battle after battle'. Should Doran and Arianne only decide to join Prince Aegon after he has won 'battle after battle' then they won't get anything out of this deal. Aegon might perhaps even no longer need Dorne in such a scenario, and he most certainly wouldn't marry Arianne in such a scenario. You don't marry a woman who effectively didn't care whether you lived or died until some news about her stupid brother reached her. Note that right now there is a battle fought in front of Meereen, most likely followed by another battle after the Volantenes arrive. Quentyn died very shorty before the battle between Meereen and the Yunkish allies began, and since even before the peace treaty between Dany and Yunkai took effect the harbor ships coming and going to Meereen have been under the direct control of the Yunkai'i and their allies. No ship will leave for Dorne soon, and nobody in Meereen aside from Gerris and Arch even cares about who that Quentyn guy was or is. The news about Daenerys' marriage to Hizdahr and Daznak's Pit might travel to the Free Cities soon (and from there to Dorne) because the slavers want to spread the tale that Daenerys Targaryen has been chastised/is dead, and this whole movement to end slavery is now over but nobody is going to care about Quentyn Martell. At least not in Slaver's Bay. Doran's people in the Free Cities will ask and inquire about him, of course, but until such time as somebody who was in Meereen when the dragons broke free and learned that Quentyn died arrives in Volantis or Lys Doran has no way of learning anything new about his son. And that will be still months in the future. It is actually more likely that Doran's first good information on Quentyn's death will reach when Gerris returns to Dorne (because, again, people being in Meereen right now/at the time the dragons escaped might simply not have heard or cared that Quentyn Martell was responsible for that and died). 2. The High Septon might actually become a threat to Aegon just as he is a threat to Tommen right now. If you can make a king you can also unmake him, and if she successfully infiltrates the Great Sept (which is her task) she might learn things about him and his goals that greatly disturb her. Mace hates the Dornish. And he hated Oberyn Martell. Nymeria is Oberyn's daughter. There is little chance that she'll be welcome at court. And we know that women are usually not granted seats on the Small Council. In fact, Cersei as Queen Regent might have been the first woman to serve on that body. Back in the days of the Conqueror, Aenys I, Maegor I, and in the early days of Jaehaerys I the Small Council did not yet exist. It was only created in its present shape by Jaehaerys I. So the powerful women of the old days - Aegon's sisters, Alyssa Velaryon, Tyanna of the Tower, etc. - most likely weren't members of the Small Council. Apparently even Princess Elaena couldn't be formally named Mistress of Coin and sit on the council in her own right. She did so in her husband's stead. In that sense I'd not be surprised if Mace forbid Nym to take Dorne's seat on the council because she is the female bastard of a man he hated. KL is not Dorne, after all, and Doran Martell cannot presume that Dornishwomen are granted the same rights outside of Dorne than they are back home. Mace is not entirely rational on this whole thing, either. It may be smarter not to anger Dorne but he might not care. Legally Mace certainly will be able to do whatever the hell he wants. And he doesn't have to be all that rude about that. Just say there has been a misunderstanding. You know, just the way how Cersei unmade Garth the Gross as Master of Coin despite the fact that Tywin and Mace had already agreed on that, too. 3. We have no idea when exactly Arianne 2 is going to take place. And neither do we know where the remaining ships carrying other Golden Company have landed. Some might even have landed north of Storm's End. Arianne assuming Nym and Myrcella must have reached KL by the time the chapter takes place doesn't mean they have not been captured a few days or even weeks before this chapter took place. We just don't know. But even if they have reached the city there is no chance that anything Nym does there will be relevant. The Tyrell army supposedly already marches against KL, and if the Golden Company wins then King Tommen's administration will crumble. Not to mention that if Cersei's trial takes place as scheduled this will have happened long before Nym arrived, so Doran Martell might actually have long learned about Gregor's existence before his nieces ever set foot into KL. And that was the original question - what effect will Gregor still walking around and serving on the Kingsguard have on Doran Martell? Myrcella does not have to be crowned as I've said repeatedly. The crowns might not be literal crowns but the golden hair of the children. She might already have worn 'a crown' during the short time Arianne proclaimed her Queen Regnant. Or she might become Aegon's first consort. Assuming the Golden Company chanced upon the Dornish party they wouldn't have killed Myrcella because she was Doran Martell's nieces and a 300 Dornishmen. 4. Pretty much none, as Kevan confirms in the Epilogue. There are Lannister guardsmen in the city, but that's about it. No army of any sort, and the loyalty of the City Watch is completely unknown at this point (although I think Varys controls them now - one really wonders who the father of that Humfrey Waters guy was who knows commands the Goldcloaks...). A realistic view of the KL plots in the beginning of the books is that we'll see events mostly from Cersei's apartments/cell - wherever she is going to be kept after Mace takes power. The only time she'll be able to leave Maegor's (or wherever she will be kept) is for her trial (if that still takes place). If Mace and Tarly and smart they will control access to Cersei by separating her from Qyburn and Ser Robert and using their own men to guard Cersei. That way she won't be able to make plans with anyone. And whether Qyburn will even want to free Cersei or continue to associate with her after her uncle's death remains to be seen. If Mace is smart he'll just buy off Qyburn - or just murder him. The man is now in the position to find out that this guy played a very crucial role in this scheme against his daughter. Qyburn might actually just disappear and hide somewhere. 5. With Varys there is already a killer in KL murdering to put Aegon on the Iron Throne. Nym and Tyene doing the same thing is not necessary. Besides, Varys should be able to murder Tommen in a much better way. Or perhaps he'll take out Margaery next? She does not seem to reside in Maegor's Holdfast so he could most likely show up in her very bedchamber.

@LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse 1. I don't think so. What if the news about Quentyn only arrives months later? Are you saying Dorne will stand by and do nothing while Aegon loses his war? 2. So you think Tyene doesn't have access to Tommen but to his cats? Not sure how that will work. Not to mention that Tyene doesn't even know Tommen has cats and how they look. I'd agree that Tyene might poison somebody. Perhaps the High Sparrow once he is no longer needed. Or some judges if they don't want to convict Margaery (in a scenario in which there is a trial and Tyene becomes one of the judges). If Mace becomes the Lord Regent as well as the Hand he can do whatever the hell he wants. Nymeria is woman and a bastard and the daughter of that piece of shit who crippled his eldest son and heir. He has every reason to not allow her a seat on the council. The seat was granted to Prince Doran Martell not to his brother's bastard daughter, after all. Not to mention that he is not bound by the words of either Tyrion or Kevan. 3. Myrcella hasn't yet reached KL. 4. Well, we can reasonably assume she won't get a seat on the Small Council. Or talk to Mace and Margaery without a score or more Tyrell guardsmen in the room. 5. Again, she isn't even there yet. How can you say her purpose is to do stuff there if we don't yet know that she'll get there alive? Robb also had a plan how to return home and retake the North. That didn't work, either.

I don't think there is a chance for any of that. Doran and Arianne will commit their armies to Aegon's cause pretty soon. Perhaps even prior to the battle against the Tyrell, perhaps only thereafter. But they cannot sit back and wait any longer. Tyene has little to no chance to get close to Tommen. She is supposed to infiltrate the Great Sept and not the court. And Nym might not even be allowed to join the Small Council or be welcome in the castle. Why should Mace allow her to sit on his Small Council? I don't think it is a given that Nym is even supposed to reach KL. She could just have been a tool to get Myrcella to Aegon, and might join him and Arianne at Storm's End. George has also confirmed that there won't be any additional Dornish POV so there is also no good chance we'll get any insight in the politicking at court aside from Cersei's perspective - who might no longer be allowed to play or witness anything of importance. She certainly won't be privy to anything Mace, Tarly, and Margaery talk about. That could be a pretty big hint that the time of court intrigues is over. Aegon is coming, and what happens in KL will no longer matter. Oh, and there is a very good chance that Nym would be executed pretty quickly should Myrcelle ever be reunited with her mother. Cersei will ask her daughter what actually happened in Dorne. And if Myrcella tells the truth then Nymeria is not going to leave the Red Keep in one piece.

Well, Nym doesn't exactly have an army with her, so she won't be able to do all that much. And I'm not sure if Nym's mission is still relevant right now. When Doran dispatched her he still intended to buy time for Quentyn and Daenerys. But right now Arianne has nearly reached Aegon and Nym is not yet in KL. Assuming she will be allowed to stay at court (and not arrested or thrown out of the city) she won't have much time to influence things and should Doran and Arianne proclaim for Aegon she might very well be killed. In fact, if Nym ever gets to KL she is a very likely candidate for the first Sand Snake to die. Tyene should be able to join the Faith in no time but Nym will be a public and recognizable Dornish face in the city. By the way: George has commented that Areo Hotah will remain a POV in TWoW. Any ideas where he is story is going to go? Many people have speculated for quite a long time that this is going to lead to his death and Obara's as well (and perhaps Darkstar's, too). But I don't think that's actually very likely. I think the only point of the Darkstar story is to finally introduce House Dayne into the story, with Obara/Areo learning something at High Hermitage that may lead them to Starfall. And we really want to meet the real Daynes eventually, don't we? It is certainly no coincidence that no representative of Lord Edric showed up at Sunspear in the last two books.

Arianne came to Griffin's Roost to meet Jon Connington and Prince Aegon. Once she arrives there, both are gone. She is probably correct that Haldon and Maar wouldn't allow her to go back home before she has at least spoken to Connington and Aegon as she has intended. The idea that she can turn back now just because they are at Storm's End rather than at Griffin's Roost is silly in itself. Doran wants Arianne's opinion on Aegon and Connington, after all. But even if the Golden Company would decide to not allow her to return home yet and take her to Storm's End by force this doesn't mean she would be their hostage. Their guest until she has done what she came for. Arianne is Doran's daughter and heir, but she isn't Doran himself, nor is she in control of Dorne yet. If they would take her hostage they wouldn't gain the allegiance of Dorne. Different thing: What do you guys think will the effect of the revelation/existence of Ser Robert Strong have on the Martells. One assumes that Lady Nym would seen through his disguise as soon as she first sees him, and whatever he does during the trial-by-combat would only confirm that. Doran Martell has shown that he can take a lot before he gets angry. But he really assumed the head they got was Gregor's. I can't but wonder whether such a blatant lie trickery would twist the knife that hit him when Oberyn was killed yet again.

Well, the prophecy is already wrong about the crowns if you like splitting hairs. Tommen is wearing Joffrey's crown after his coronation. It is too heavy for him, remember AFfC. So the interpretation/claim/view that all of Cersei's children will wear their own (different) golden crowns is clearly wrong. At least two of them wore the same crown, and should Myrcella ever been proclaimed Queen Regnant in her own right she most likely would also wear the same crown as Tommen and Joffrey (unless we assume they take their time to make a new one for Myrcella - which isn't very likely considering that they didn't make a new one for Tommen). In that sense a prophecy correctly foretelling the fate of Cersei's children would be 'golden will be their crown' rather than crowns. And if that's true, then I really see no point trying to insist that all of them have to be ruling monarchs to wear crowns.

You are not making sense. Arianne is in no danger from the Golden Company. Aegon and the Golden Company have to seduce her, not the other way around. The Golden Company wants Dorne's support, not the other way around. If Aegon mistreats her, threatens her, or takes her captive, then Doran will write some letters to Mace, and they will crush the Golden Company at Storm's End together. The risk Daemon Sand sees is mostly that Arianne will be caught up in events if Aegon loses his battle against the Tyrells. But she should still be able to get away. Storm's End has a harbor, after all, so she should be able to take a ship before Storm's End is besieged. And the idea of Daemon Sand acting as Arianne's envoy is just silly. Dorne has to decide whether Aegon is the real deal or not (or at least a potential tool/ally against the Lannisters). And Arianne Martell is Dorne, not some bastard. She has to make that call. And I'm pretty convinced she won't rush her decision to join Aegon. They will meet, and then she'll send a letter to Doran to tell him what she thinks. In the meantime the battle might occur. Then Arianne will sent another raven, and Doran may have answered in-between, having perhaps received word from Meereen about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq and her alleged death/disappearance. That will bury the Quentyn plan. At that part it will be 'doing nothing again' or 'joining Aegon'. And I think at that point even Doran is going to prefer doing something over doing nothing.

Myrcella doesn't have to be Queen Regnant, though, to be a queen. She could be Aegon's first consort, too, or perhaps the botched Arianne crowning attempt was already enough for that. If we assume that 'golden crowns' even refers to actually crowns. It could just refer to their golden hair.