2 Theories about the Pisswater Prince...

[Bael's Bastard]

2. The swapped baby was not a tanner's son. It was Ashara Dayne's son.

This theory explains why Ashara Dayne commited suicide. Varys took her son, whose father was Brandon Stark. In the sack, Ser Gregor destroyed the baby's head and gave it to Tywin to present to Robert. The baby's features were purple eyes, and dark hair. Ashara Dayne and the Daynes in general have purple eyes and Ashara herself had dark hair as well. If not, the baby could've inherited Brandon's dark brown hair which could easily pass as black Martell hair. I don't believe that either Robert, Ned or Tywin knew what baby Aegon looked like. If he was presented with his head intact, nobody would able to doubt him. The black hair would make sense since Elia's hair was black and he also had Rhaegar's purple Targaryen eyes. Varys stole the baby from Ashara, who was already in deep depression after Brandon died, and after Varys took the baby and Ned came back to Starfall to return Dawn, he told her of the happenings in King's Landing, she commited suicide.

Aegon didn't have dark hair, but the typical Targaryen features, and the murdered infant is said to have fair hair.

I think most likely Aegon was murdered, though I would like it if he did survive (nothing against the child being killed instead in such a scenario).

The switch could turn out to have happened, but I think it is unlikely Varys did so ahead of time, and afterward he capitalized on the opportunities it created.

[Ygritte]

If we look at the facts before us, and assume that Jon is indeed a son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, then we can plainly see that Rhaegar was a man who valued the safety and lives of his children. Why else post three Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy? And he still believed that King's Landing would be safe for the moment, what with his army being an impedance to the rebels and all.

If Rhaegar was a man who went so far as to place three of the noblest knights and fiercest fighters to stand guard over his second-born son, then it stands to reason that not only would he have sent his heir away, but also his eldest child and only daughter, Rhaenys. Her name, as well as her full brother's, leads credence to the worth Rhaegar placed on his children.

I think that if a Brandon/Ashara baby was switched with Aegon (and I'm agnostic on the subject), it was long before the war and it wasn't to protect Aegon from Robert. There's kind of a historical parallel in that there was a rumor that Mary Queen of Scots switched babies with one of her ladies in waiting, to cover up a stillbirth so that her husband wouldn't find out about it. I forget if she was supposed to have been worried he'd leave her, or worried that he'd make a power grab for her throne. It probably wasn't true, but GRRM does so love his historical parallels.

So in this theory, Elia has a second daughter or a stillborn son at the same time Ashara has a healthy illegitimate son. We really have no idea how Elia felt about Rhaegar, but the QOLAB thing had already happened by then so she might have worried he was interested in someone else, and this might have bothered her either personally or politically or both. And he was probably talking about prophesied princes by then too. So, maybe, Elia's worried he's going to put her aside in favor of Lyanna so he can have this son, or that some other faction at court will try to have her repudiated for not having sons (think Tywin, in favor of Cersei). But voila! Ashara just had a baby too, and hers is a boy. They switch.

If Elia's baby (male or female) is stillborn, then Ashara just ends up with no baby and a broken heart after the Sack. Or maybe the girl baby lives and is Allyria, but there's yet another cover-up to disguise her "illegitimacy" and the Daynes put it round that Ashara's baby died and this girl is someone else.

Edited to add: If the daughter part of this is true, then Rhaegar was right all along, and he really did have two girls and one boy, echoing Aegon I and his sisters.

Working through this, I'm realizing that there's no way fAegon is Brandon+Ashara in this scenario--there's no extra baby boy, because Elia's real baby was either female or dead or both if I'm right. But it would go toward explaining Ashara's suicide after the Sack when she heard what happened to her own kid. Illyrio's fAegon would be a whole other plot entirely.

The only way fAegon is Ashara+Brandon is if they switched two healthy baby boys, and Winter Harvest is correct, there's no real reason to do that unless it's later, to protect him, and then they'd have done something to protect Rhaenys too.

[The Others Side]

hodor.