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Bael's Bastard

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  1. War with "more dragons" was never going to bring Dorne into the realm, any more than war without dragons was. And the Dornish were just as dangerous, perhaps more, after being "conquered" than before. The effort to keep them subdued would have never ended, and would have been extremely costly for people who don't want to send their heirs and strength to die in Dorne.
  2. Bael's Bastard

    [SPOILERS] Family trees and successions

    That is possible. Lord Alaric's two sons and daughter were all still unwed and had no legitimate children when Alysanne visited in 58 AC, so Lord Edric couldn't have been older than 14 when he succeeded his grandfather Alaric in 72 AC, and could have been quite a bit younger than that. I don't think we can completely rule out the possibility that Edric fathered Benjen, since the MUSH's 88 AC date for Lord Rickon's birth could always turn out to be a bit off, and even if not, it isn't conceivable for a young Stark lord to be attempting to father children at 16 years old (Robb). But, if Rickon's birth date is truly 88 AC, it would require Edric to have been born not too long after Alysanne's visit in 58 AC, and it would require he and Benjen both to have fathered children before they were men grown. For example, something like this: Edric b. 59 AC - Ellard b. 72 AC - Benjen b. 73 AC - Rickon b. 88 AC - Cregan b. 108 AC If Rickon's birth date was a little later, it would be a little less problematic, but would still require Edric to be born in 58-59 AC, and still require Edric, Benjen, and Rickon to have fathered children when they were barely men grown, for example: Edric b. 59 AC - Ellard b. 75 AC - Benjen b. 76 AC - Rickon b. 92 AC - Cregan b. 108 AC If Ellard and Benjen are siblings, then Benjen must be younger than Ellard since Ellard presumably came first. But if Ellard is the son of Edric through Alaric's elder son, and Benjen is a son of Alaric's younger son, that can allow Benjen to be an older uncle of Ellard through a younger son of Alaric, while explaining why Ellard came before Benjen. For example: Walton Alaric - Son 1 - Edric - Ellard - Son 2 - Benjen - Rickon b. 88 AC ? - Cregan b.108 AC - Bennard b. 89 AC ? But there is the possibility that Edric, Ellard, and Benjen are all siblings, sons of the elder or younger son of Alaric. For example: Alaric - Son (1 or 2) - Edric - Ellard - Benjen - Rickon b. 88 AC ? - Cregan b. 108 AC Or that Edric and Ellard are siblings born to the elder son of Alaric, and Benjen is a son of Alaric's younger son, for example: Alaric b. - Son 1 - Edric - Ellard - Son 2 - Benjen - Rickon b. 88 AC ? - Cregan b. 108 AC This is all highly speculative, especially birth dates of men and ages when the men fathered children which could go any number of directions up or down by smaller or higher amounts, so this is by no means an attempt to nail down actual birth dates, only an exercise to see how the tree could possibly look, even with quite different birth dates.
  3. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    It isn't at all ridiculous. It is obvious from the first volume that we can't make assumptions about how much each king will or should get based on the number of years they reigned. The 2 year reign of Aegon II/Dance of Dragons civil war received just under 70 pages less than the 55 year reign of Jaehaerys I, which was one of the newest pieces written, and more than the reigns of Aegon I, Aenys, Maegor, and Viserys I combined. The 5 year regency of Aegon III received just over 100 pages less than the 55 year reign of Jaehaerys I, and about as many pages as the reigns of Aegon I, Aenys, Maegor, and Viserys I combined. The 11 combined years reigns and wars of Aenys and Maegor received more than the 37 year reign of Aegon I or the 26 years reign of Viserys I. During the last almost 11 full reigns left, over the last less than 150 years of the Targaryen era, we have two kings that ruled for less than 5 years combined (Viserys II and Jaehaerys II), two kings that ruled for a combined 14 years (Daeron I and Baelor), three kings who each reigned 12 years each (Aegon IV, Aerys I, Maekar), and three kings who each ruled over 20 years, but whose reigns combined were only about 11 years more than Jaehaerys I alone (who got 244 pages total). While there is no doubt plenty to write about for that period and those reigns, the assumption that GRRM must write two books for a period covering only about a decade more than he covered in the first volume, is delusional. It remains to be seen what he will actually do, and whether he will get on a roll that requires expanding to three books, but I seem to recall it being stated that he still has every intention to fit everything he wanted to write about the remaining half of the Targaryen era in a second volume. I am as greedy for information about Targaryen era Westeros as anyone, but some of the assumptions people are making are unreasonable.
  4. Bael's Bastard

    The Illyrio/Aegon thing

    No, I don't think we have any confirmed examples, and it seems like thus far baseless assumption. Is it possible? Sure. But it's not something that can be taken for granted based on what we know.
  5. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    It is apparently necessary to remind you that you are just stating your opinion because you make statements like "Getting an in-depth Targaryen history of the days of Aerys I to Aerys II before we have all Dunk & Egg stories would most definitely ruin much and more about all the unwritten Dunk & Egg stories, no matter how they were spun" as if they are a matter of fact. That is not a fact, just your opinion on the matter, which you are certainly entitled to. Gyldayn can easily write about the reigns of Aerys I through Aegon V without omitting much of the important stuff that would be known to the realm, and without spoiling mysteries and excitement he could put into the stories he intends to tell in Dunk and Egg. No doubt Gyldayn's account will tell us about John the Fiddler, yet, he will be doing so after we have already read about that mystery. If someone happens to read TWOIAF or Fire and Blood Volume 2 before they read TMK, his reveal as Daemon might be spoiled, but it's not going to suddenly render TMK a poorer story, as anyone who has reread it and reread it again can attest. An outline of the reigns that the tales of Dunk and Egg occur in is not going to give us all of the magic that occurs in a tale of Dunk and Egg, no matter how you spin it. The idea that an outline, even a somewhat revealing one, is going to ruin or make a tale of Dunk and Egg less interesting to readers doesn't make any sense. We all know, even in some detail, some of the major events that have occurred in Westerosi history, and yet those of us who are interested in the stories outside the main series would eat up a POV that takes places during pretty much any era or year in the Targaryen era. I think it will be just fine if GRRM matches the second half of Fire and Blood to the first half. It's intended to be a popular history book, not a security camera giving us every detail of what actually happened every moment. Even if the first half had been 1400 pages, many of us would have been able to think of plenty of things we wish we'd learned more about. That is always going to be the case, no matter how much we get. There is simply no need to split the second half of the Targaryen era into two books. Only 17 Targaryen kings ruled, and we just got an account of the reigns of all of 6 of them and around a fifth of the reign of a 7th. Two of those kings alone - Aegon I and Jaehaerys I - covered over two thirds of the first 136 years of the Targaryen era, and if you add in a third - Viserys I - that covers all but 18 years of the first 136. Yet, out of just over 700 pages, the 37 year reign plus conquest of Aegon I received 48 pages, the 55 year reign of Jaehaerys I received 244 pages, and the 26 year reign of Viserys received about 38 pages, a total of about 330 pages covering around 120 years. The 11 years of the reigns and wars of Aenys and Maegor receive just under 60 pages, the 2 years or so of the reign of Aegon II and the Dance of the Dragons receive nearly 180 pages, and the first fifth or so of the 26 year reign of Aegon III receives almost 140 pages, a total of around 380 pages for around 18 years. I would expect the Dornish Wars, the Blackfyre Rebellions during the reigns of Daeron II, Aerys I, and perhaps Jaehaerys I, and Baratheon rebellions during the reigns of Aegon V and Aerys II to get significant pages, but I don't think we can assume that a longer reign automatically means a lot of pages, or that a shorter reign means less pages. I am not sure what about the rest of Aegon III's reign you think requires much more than 50 pages, but, while I am sure George is capable of inventing such things, I would rather hear about the interesting things over the course of the remaining reigns that we have been given hints or small descriptions of. I think we need to hear some nice descriptions about the growing up of Aegon III's children, Viserys's time as Hand and as the backbone between the end of the Dance and his own family taking the Iron Throne, the dying of the dragons, and Aegon's attempts to hatch new ones, but I don't think we need a hundred pages for the rest of his reign.
  6. Bael's Bastard

    [SPOILERS] Family trees and successions

    If it hasn't been published he might not be permitted to reveal it, regardless of whether it is a spoiler or not.
  7. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    I think it is completely unnecessary to split Fire and Blood into three books. The first book already covered over 136 years of Targaryen history in Westeros, which leaves only a little over a decade more than half of the remainder of Targaryen history in Westeros left. After covering 136+ years in the first volume, I would be extremely disappointed for the next volume to cover only the next 73 years, with the last 74 years being pushed off to another volume.
  8. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    That might be true for you and your preferences in particular, but it is by no means objectively true. He wouldn't need to write around events. Giving us some of the stories and beliefs that are well known to the average person in Westeros through a maester would not inherently spoil the experience of witnessing the reality of a particular event through the eyes of Dunk as he experiences it with Egg and his actual words and actions by his side. There is no comparison, and a Fire and Blood account of the reigns of Aerys I through Aegon V by Gyldayn would not inherently spoil a Dunk and Egg story set during those times, even if it was quite revealing about what is popularly claimed or believed to have been said, done, or happened during a given time. At most it would take away some of the mystery, but even then, it wouldn't strip away all the mystery, or the differences between popular account or belief about a thing, and an eye witness's experience of that thing. All of that is your opinion. And you are making an extremely poor and irrelevant comparison. Even if you want to claim that you personally did not enjoy as much the portions of Fire and Blood that we already received much information on in TWOIAF, the fact is, in TWOIAF we received heavily edited and reworded-by-another-maester portions of fuller accounts that later appeared in Fire and Blood. That is not at all comparable to what we are discussing. I'm sure many would agree that, even with all the information we received in Fire and Blood, a series of stories from the POV of Aethan Velaryon, Orys Baratheon, or Visenya covering the first four decades of the Targaryen era, or from the POV of Rhaena or Jaehaerys set during the last three quarters of the first Targaryen century, or from the POV of Viserys II or Alyn Velaryon set during the mid to late second Targaryen century, or by a close friend of any notable character during the first 136 years of the Targaryen era, as Dunk is to Egg during the first half of the third Targaryen century, would not be diminished by everything we already know, or are told from the sources, about the major events in their lives.
  9. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    I am sure the stories will all have their mysteries or twists and turns, I just don't see another Blackfyre pretender hiding under a false identity, though I think a Blackfyre daughter coming into a story under another identity could work . But even still, many of us take for granted that Lyanna is the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and I don't think that diminishes our anticipation to see how it plays out, or will diminish our enjoyment when it does. I don't think even a relatively in-depth maester's overview of something like Haegon's rebellion would diminish the things he couldn't possibly convey, which we would experience from Dunk's POV. We've seen Bittersteel discussed, but no discussion of Bittersteel can match experiencing Bittersteel through one of our beloved character's POVs, or experiencing first hand Bloodraven's feelings for/against Bittersteel. We've witnessed Aerion being a childish prick to his family and his brother's friend, and have had his cruelty and capriciousness demonstrated and described to us, but we could very well witness an Aerion that is a very competent knight, who is capable of contributing to keeping Daeron's line of Targaryens on the throne against the Blackfyre threat. And there are various other things we can expect or hope to see from a Dunk and Egg set during the Third Blackfyre Rebellion that, no matter how described in detail by a maester, can't compare to the experience through the eyes of Dunk. I can understand that detailing it can take away some of the mystery, and perhaps some of the desire of GRRM to write it, but I still think Fire and Blood can do a pretty good job of describing things without taking the emotional impact out of it for us readers. Summerhall is definitely one I'd like to experience in Dunk and Egg before experiencing it in Fire and Blood, but I still think we could find out a good deal of what occurred without it making the experiencing through Dunk's eyes any less emotional and important.
  10. Bael's Bastard

    "various book deadlines"

    That's a bad example, as there isn't likely to be a repeat of a mystery Blackfyre (which you apparently didn't fall for anyways, so it's weird you think it would have lessened your enjoyment) in future rebellions. And we all know the Blackfyre rebellions all failed, so....
  11. Bael's Bastard

    Does Nettles prove the Valaryians weren’t exceptional?

    There's really no reason to think Nettles isn't a dragon seed just like the rest. Frankly, it smacks of racism based on nothing but her being brown to suggest she is the exception.
  12. Bael's Bastard

    Small Questions v. 10105

  13. Bael's Bastard

    Does Nettles prove the Valaryians weren’t exceptional?

    I agree, We can say that he failed, but I don't think we can say for sure that he failed because a lack of Targaryen blood. There were other factors that might have interfered. There's even a chance that there are fewer generations between Quentyn and Daenerys/Maron than between Daenerys and Daeron II/Myriah. Daenerys and Quentyn are both descended from children of Aegon IV/Naerys and the Prince/Princess of Dorne, but Quentyn's ancestress Daenerys was closer in age to her brother's son Maekar than to her brother Daeron. And though Aerys's eldest son Rhaegar wed Doran's younger sister Elia, Doran himself was only a few years younger than Aerys, while Elia was a few years older than Aerys's eldest son Rhaegar. So while it is possible that there were four generations between Quentyn and Daenerys/Maron, as there were between Daenerys and Daeron/Myriah, it's also possible there were only three. And while Daenerys's parents and grandparents were Targaryen siblings in name, that was after three straight generations of Targaryen/non-Targaryen parents: - Daeron/Myriah Martell - Maekar/Dyanna Dayne - Aegon/Betha Blackwood - Jaehaerys/Shaera Targaryen - Aerys/Rhaella Targaryen Not that this is all down to a science that can be determined, but my point is only that, even though we think of Daenerys as having been born a century before Quentyn, the number of generations and ancestors between them might be less than we might expect. And without knowing the ancestry of Doran's parents, we don't even know whether or not they had wed anyone with more recent Targaryen ancestry, even if Daenerys was their most recent direct Targaryen ancestor in the late 180s AC.
  14. Bael's Bastard

    Is Alyssa Farman or Alys Westhill Quaithe?

    Haha, thanks
  15. Bael's Bastard

    Is Alyssa Farman or Alys Westhill Quaithe?

    @Ran Do you have any post or anything anywhere where you go into why you think Ashara is Quaithe?
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