What is the Iron Bank Up To?

[Lord Wraith]

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

If there is a strong, centralized IT, then I would agree. However as it stands, I don't think it would be unfeasible for the Braavosi to invade the Vale or the North with a strong fleet and sizable army. They clearly have the logistical capability to do so. They are shipping tons of food to the Wall to feed the NW and thousands of wildlings in the middle of autumn/winter. Campaigning in the winter is obviously daft, but the Andals conquered the Vale with much smaller boats and worse technology. 

Now could they hold it? I don't think so, but they could easily invade Westeros.

Aegon and Euron shows us that basically anyone can attack Westeros at this point. I don't think Braavos will be they certainly have the capability.

The IB is one of the many uses of 'soft power" that I think the Braavosi have started using since their last wars with Pentos. I think they realize that simply defeating someones military won't always get the results you want. In the last war Pentos was forbidden to have slaves and yet Illyrio basically still has slaves.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

While I would agree this is how their usual mode of operation should be , if we assume that they functioned like this, they should have stopped lending to the Iron Throne long ago. Under Robert's rule, debts had gone through the roof. Yet, even as of AFFC we see they are still willing to deal with the IT, and it's only Cersei's blank refusal to pay them back which sends them to Stannis.

Plus if we consider financially savvy thinking on the part of the IB here, the idea that they would try and invade Westeros, just before a winter, when they know it'd be very difficult for them to hold it, makes no sense at all, especially when you consider the fact that Braavos is doing pretty well economically on it's own. The money required for such an operation, leave alone feeding people, stabilising the war-torn Westerosi economy, etc. would be insane, and the uncertainty in such an risk too much. 

I think it's just simpler to look at the rule Martin has laid out for us in the books with regards to the Iron Bank, - you pay us or we will destroy you. Frankly, trying to make sense of the economy of his world and applying real-world knowledge in that regard is unnecessary, IMHO.

I'd also point out Braavos knows about Dany and her three dragons. Unless they throw in with her (which they might not, because they have a cultural bias against dragons), they risk having to fight her and her firepower if they ever manage to actually invade Westeros. 

Another thing - we see no historical precedence in the books for Braavos taking over other cities because of a sheer desire for power. Essosi cities have a better economy, not as much instability (before Dany came, of course), and would be way easier to hold. Yet, the only wars Braavos participated in were those against the slaver city Pentos, and it has aided other cities in their wars. Again, this makes sense because of the founding principles of Braavos - it was established by escaped slaves after all. These are not people who would be interested in oppression or conquest.

 

I know the Braavosi hate dragons but do you know what they hate more? Slavery, the first law of Braavos is that no one should be a slave/thrall etc. Danaerys has done more to disrupt the slave trade in the last three years than the Braavosi have done in the last  three hundred.

I can see the Braavosi willing to help her especially if she destroys their rival Volantis on the way back to Westeros. I agree that the Braavosi want to see end the of slavery more than some foolish war of conquest.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

I know the Braavosi hate dragons but do you know what they hate more? Slavery, the first law of Braavos is that no one should be a slave/thrall etc. Danaerys has done more to disrupt the slave trade in the last three years than the Braavosi have done in the last  three hundred.

I can see the Braavosi willing to help her especially if she destroys their rival Volantis on the way back to Westeros. I agree that the Braavosi want to see end the of slavery more than some foolish war of conquest.

Exactly. Their city is founded on the principles of an egalitarian society. It's more likely they help her (not totally sure, because Tycho hints they still don't like dragons in ADWD), but the idea that they would want to end slavery is much more likely than them trying to conquer Westeros.

[GyantSpyder]

19 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

While I would agree this is how their usual mode of operation should be , if we assume that they functioned like this, they should have stopped lending to the Iron Throne long ago.

This is one of the strongest arguments in favor of the Iron Bank being in cahoots with Littlefinger to drive the Iron Throne into debt. It's also something real countries do to each other fairly often - use partnerships with third party financial entities to make bad loans that don't make commercial sense in order to exercise foreign policy influence, a la "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man."

19 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Another thing - we see no historical precedence in the books for Braavos taking over other cities because of a sheer desire for power. Essosi cities have a better economy, not as much instability (before Dany came, of course), and would be way easier to hold. Yet, the only wars Braavos participated in were those against the slaver city Pentos, and it has aided other cities in their wars.

And the Braavos/Pentos rivalry would be a good additional justification for the Littlefinger/Varys rivalry - we have a sense from Littlefinger that he knows what Varys's plan is - to back a slaver-funded invasion of Westeros - and we know that both players seem to want the Baratheon/Lannister and Lannister/Tyrell regimes failing, and that until that started happening they could both hang out in the same place and govern together without having to make open moves against each other. Then, as the plans accelerate, the moves start being more open, and Littlefinger has to put some distance between himself and Varys.

So if Braavos (anti-slavery) is against Pentos (pro-slavery), and Pentos is looking to seize the historical moment of weakness exert influence in Westeros, then maybe Braavos is also looking to exert influence in Westeros.

The difference is we have a good sense for what Varys's endgame is now, but we still don't quite know for sure what Littlefinger's or the Iron Bank's actual trump card is, if either of them have one. Odds are it isn't Stannis.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

7 minutes ago, GyantSpyder said:

This is one of the strongest arguments in favor of the Iron Bank being in cahoots with Littlefinger to drive the Iron Throne into debt. It's also something real countries do to each other fairly often - use partnerships with third party financial entities to make bad loans that don't make commercial sense in order to exercise foreign policy influence, a la "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man."

And the Braavos/Pentos rivalry would be a good additional justification for the Littlefinger/Varys rivalry - we have a sense from Littlefinger that he knows what Varys's plan is - to back a slaver-funded invasion of Westeros - and we know that both players seem to want the Baratheon/Lannister and Lannister/Tyrell regimes failing, and that until that started happening they could both hang out in the same place and govern together without having to make open moves against each other. Then, as the plans accelerate, the moves start being more open, and Littlefinger has to put some distance between himself and Varys.

So if Braavos (anti-slavery) is against Pentos (pro-slavery), and Pentos is looking to seize the historical moment of weakness exert influence in Westeros, then maybe Braavos is also looking to exert influence in Westeros.

The difference is we have a good sense for what Varys's endgame is now, but we still don't quite know for sure what Littlefinger's or the Iron Bank's actual trump card is, if either of them have one. Odds are it isn't Stannis.

It's hard to buy this, as there isn't any hint that LF knows what Varys' plans are in exact. Illyrio Mopatis/Varys do not represent Pentos as a city, and LF is smart enough to know this.

The reason why LF and Varys had a common goal in AGOT is pretty clear - they both didn't want Stannis on the throne. All of LF's moves in AGOT can be explained by this. 

LF and Varys being game players know very well how difficult it is to hold Westeros. There is invading, and then there is the matter of actually holding the land. The idea that Westerosi will accept Braavosi ruling over them without an overt show of power (like dragons) is IMO, completely unlikely. As I pointed out, there is no reason why the IB or Braavosi should even desire such a thing, considering there is no historical precedence for such. The Braavosi ideas of an egalitarian society do not point towards them supporting feudalism or dynastic rule, which Westeros places great importance on (the whole special blood of a king). Culturally, they are practically opposites.

We don't really know what Varys' endgame is, but there are much better hints that it points towards avenging his Blackfyre ancestors than anything related to Pentos. Similarly, there is zero hint LF gives a fig about his Braavosi roots - from whatever we've seen in the series, he's trying his hardest to make people forget he was the grandson of a sellsword from the Fingers, leave alone Braavos. Even then, the Vale Lords only tolerate him because he was the husband of Lysa.