House Frey Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I can't decide which way to go - do I go for oc and console myself that if we miss the cult, we might still hit an FM, or go with likely convert? Stark fits both IMO, and I haven't done more than skimmed Reed's cases (sorry man) but Tyrell seems shady, but Swann seems a bit more cult shady. Gah - here's what I'm thinking right now. Swann Stark Tyrell Blackwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Case against Swann. Distancing from Bolton before the conversion Okay, this might be a bit of a stretch. But it's possible that Swann was the OC, and that he partially based his conversion choice on the fact that he had already established some distance between himself and Bolton on day 1 - Under the radar This is a good time to mention that Swann has been way under the radar. Which is still what I personally expect from the OC. Why is this a good time to mention that? Because the above quote is pretty much his only substantial day 1 post, aside from his vote against Dayne. Yeah....like I said, he's way under the radar. Would rather have the cult win than the FM I understand what he's trying to say here, but I completely disagree with it. What kind of innocent argues that he'd be okay being converted and winning with the cult? Its almost as if he is subtly trying to convince the group that going after the cult isn't such a great idea....better to get rid of the FM, and then try for the cult. Because at least if you lose to the cult, you get to 'win' as a part of their team. When he's called on it, he backtracks a bit, but he's still arguing to lynch one of his FM suspects, and he's saying it's better to lynch a top FM suspect than go after the cult - And he's still saying stuff like this - As I'm reading his posts, I can't help but get the bad feeling that he's trying to convince us that the cult is not so bad. He's laying the groundwork for us to feel better about the cult than the FM, when the reality is that they are both enemies and the cult are an even bigger threat than the FM. Again, why would an innocent player push such a pro-cult opinion? He later acts as if he's switching his focus to the cult - But the reality is, he still wants to focus on the suspects who could be either OC or FM. And he's pushing us away from the suspect list that includes Bolton. This could definitely be a subtle defense of Bolton. Defense of Bolton Okay, so his subtle defense of Bolton starts in the last quote I listed. It gets more bold after that - So first he wasn't sure about the case against Arryn (as shown in a prior quote), and now Arryn is his top choice? Here's the vote count at the time of his vote - He pushes the count to 5 for Arryn and 3 for Bolton. It's a fairly strong point against him. On day 3, he shows up again and once more pushes for a Dayne lynch - And if we won't agree on Dayne, he'd like to go with one of the more aggressive players. Apparently, he preferred lynching them in this order - Tully, Reed, Baratheon, Bolton. Obviously suspicious that Bolton is last on the list. Also suspicious that he's gone from wanting to lynch OC/FM suspects to now getting rid of one of the people attacking Bolton (Tully or Reed) if he can't get Dayne lynched. Near the end of the day, he still doesn't want to lynch Bolton. This is when Dayne is still one of the top options, and he is not giving up on him. Tries to set up Baratheon as a possible Bolton partner, just in case Bolton is lynched - So he's just finished talking about how an evil player may spend a lot of time defending his partner. And yet he follows that up by ironically saying to Baratheon - Could he have been projecting his own strategy onto Baratheon? He eventually votes for Baratheon over Bolton - And after Bolton is lynched, but before he comes up guilty, he once again pushes the Bolton/Baratheon partnership idea - Summary 1) May have converted Bolton on night 1 because he felt he had established a bit of distance between the 2 of them on day 1. 2) He is under the radar, which I still expect from the OC. 3) He made a bunch of posts in which he suggested that the innocents should prefer a cult victory over a FM victory. 4) Starts off with a subtle defense of Bolton. Pushes us toward the OC/FM suspects. 5) Votes Arryn instead of Bolton on day 2. Places Arryn at 5 votes, while Bolton is only at 3. 6) Defense of Bolton grows in strength near the end of day 2 and on day 3. 7) Once it looks like Bolton is really in trouble, he directly states that an evil player could very easily defend his partner (in the hope that we'll all think its too obvious)...and then pushes us toward suspecting Baratheon. Completely ignores that the same thing could be said of himself. Also, I should point out that Bolton listed Swann as #4 on his suspect list. Probably the most likely place for him to put a partner. Not too high, so its not likely he'll have to vote for him. But also still on his suspect list, so he's able to create a bit of distance. After writing this up, I'm definitely suspicious of Swann. To be honest, he and Tyrell both look pretty awful right now. So i have two things to defend against, firstly the "under the radar"... This is a 2k+ post game already. I'm out of my depth. I freely admit that. Now for the Bolton links... I was shocked he came up cult. Yes, there were lots of links. Far too many. Would the OC be that daft? WIFOM, but it's the best i can offer. I'm also not the killer, so i can't even reveal as killer, despite the suspicions. I considered doing a Tully, just because lynching me is a mistake, but I'd rather play honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Frey Tyrell Blackwood Arryn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Stark fits both IMO, and I haven't done more than skimmed Reed's cases (sorry man) but Tyrell seems shady, but Swann seems a bit more cult shady. Gah - here's what I'm thinking right now. How come? Right now, you seem shady yourself Two more innocents killed, that's even more than shady. That's a tragedy. One lynched by us. I'm glad I never voted Crackenhall. I can't decide which way to go - do I go for oc and console myself that if we miss the cult, we might still hit an FM, or go with likely convert? Only if we lynch you, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Frey Tyrell Blackwood Arryn You aren't even listing Swann? Not at all suspicious of him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Now for the Bolton links... I was shocked he came up cult. Yes, there were lots of links. Far too many. Would the OC be that daft? WIFOM, but it's the best i can offer. If thats the case, then why were you continually saying Baratheon would be suspicious if Bolton came up guilty at the end of day 3? He had even more links to Bolton than you did, and you were using that against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Stark, if I'm not mistaken, I'm shady for being a good convert - not on my play. The others (you included) are being suspected for their play all game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Two more innocents killed, that's even more than shady. That's a tragedy. One lynched by us. I'm glad I never voted Crackenhall. I really don't like this reaction. Oh yes, you are so innocent because you never voted Crakehall. I want some pressure on Stark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 before I head home, I need to remove vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Arrrgh! I really just want to vote Westerling. My gut is saying go go go! But my head is questioning it. Do you like this post more, Reed? I really dislike it. That's why I vote Frey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 You aren't even listing Swann? Not at all suspicious of him? Sorry, I forgot. Of course I am suspicious of him. And of you too. Frey Tyrell Blackwood Swann Reed Arryn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 If thats the case, then why were you continually saying Baratheon would be suspicious if Bolton came up guilty at the end of day 3? He had even more links to Bolton than you did, and you were using that against him. You asked a question, i answered it. My post has been misconstrued as suggesting he's evil because of it. I don't see how Baratheon coming up guilty would make Bolton look bad. So i answered why it mightr look bad. Simple as that. You have enough of a case with my inability to keep up and trust of bolton. No need to try to twist my words to mean the oposit of what they did too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Do you like this post more, Reed? I really dislike it. That's why I vote Frey. I'm confused. You think Frey's post in the thread foreshadowed his decision to kill Westerling last night? I don't have Frey as a top FM suspect....I have him as a convert suspect. And more importantly, I'm hunting cultists, not FM. Or are you just saying that Frey is suspicious for wanting to vote Westerling, because Westerling turned up innocent? Because again...I don't really think suspecting somebody who turns up innocent is a sign of guilt. Just like defending somebody who turns up innocent isn't automatically a sign of your own innocence. It can be, in certain circumstances. But not all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Swann, can you please rank Frey, Stark, Tyrell, and Blackwood, in the order you suspect them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I'm confused. You think Frey's post in the thread foreshadowed his decision to kill Westerling last night? I don't have Frey as a top FM suspect....I have him as a convert suspect. And more importantly, I'm hunting cultists, not FM. Or are you just saying that Frey is suspicious for wanting to vote Westerling, because Westerling turned up innocent? Because again...I don't really think suspecting somebody who turns up innocent is a sign of guilt. Just like defending somebody who turns up innocent isn't automatically a sign of your own innocence. It can be, in certain circumstances. But not all the time. I suppose you are right but I just can't get this out of my head. Frey has been a good player all along, a player who would be a precious convert...unless he is the original cultist. His post might have foreshadowed the death of an innocent, I am not sure about his role as an Other, but it looks suspicious to me all along. Bolton looked suspicious too and he was proven to be a cultist/convert. Looking for cultists among weaker/innactive players is, imho, as counterproductive, as the lynch of Westerling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Frey Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Stark's behavior is why he might be a good convert. His reasoning is gut backed by little to no logic. You can get away with any type of reasoning that way. The thing thats points in his favor is that he is fingering me as his top suspect. If he really were a convert, he'd rather keep me alive as cover. Doesn't rule him out as FM, just ... I really don't see it as a smart move for a cultist. Of course this is based on my POV and you all can't know what I'm saying is true, but for now, I'm dropping Stark down on my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Looking for cultists among weaker/innactive players is, imho, counterproductive, as the lynch of Westerling. Would you call Tyrell weak/inactive? I would. Yet you voted for him yesterday. Now I would want to vote for Tyrell. I understand why you voted for him. He's suspicious. What I don't understand is why you are now saying that its counterproductive to look for cultists among the weaker/inactive players...when that is exactly what you did yesterday. I really don't like contradictions like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 The thing thats points in his favor is that he is fingering me as his top suspect. If he really were a convert, he'd rather keep me alive as cover. Doesn't rule him out as FM, just ... I really don't see it as a smart move for a cultist. Maybe. But remember, the cult has another conversion tonight. If he's cult, and he gets you lynched today, all he and his partners have to do is survive the night to have 3 out of 8 players on their team tomorrow. At which point, he could try to push for Tyrell/Swann/Blackwood or whoever the most convenient suspect is. And even if he fails, his team is still in a good situation. I agree, it would have made more sense for him to vote Tyrell, Swann, or Blackwood, but I don't think his vote for you is enough to rule him out as a cultist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Case against Tyrell. ... Summary 1) Fits the CB profile. 2) Would rather go after the OC/FM suspects than the convert. 3) Deflects attention from Bolton on day 2 and day 3. 4) Says he will consider voting Bolton on day 3, but never does it. The only point in his favor is that he chose to vote for Bolton over Arryn on day 2. Arryn was at 5 votes and Bolton was at 3. He could have pushed the Arryn lynch fairly close to a lynch, but instead he helped make Bolton a more viable lynch option. 1) Can't defend myself from that. All I can say is I'm innocent and I've spent as much time as I'm willing to spend giving my honest thoughts and opinions on who is guilty. Hate to go doom and gloom here, but I'm seriously doubting our chances of winning now and I realize I'm partly responsible for that. 2) And I stand by that. Our last few lynches have all been convert suspects and other than Bolton they've come up innocent. I've been arguing that Swann could fit either profile for some time now and yet he's still around. Stark too fits both profiles; So why is it we're keeping players who look quite blatantly guilty alive? If you're innocent you should be asking yourself that question right now, I know I am. 3) I've responded to this before. My perception of Bolton based on their posts was that they were innocent. It's the same impression I get from Baratheon and Arryn and the same impression I got from Crakehall. Yes, occasionally my gut lies but more often then naught I'm inclined to trust it. That said, I'm not certain if I still trust Baratheon and Arryn. 4) See above. Maybe it's irrelevant now but I had every intent to place my vote on Bolton if it would end the day with a lynch, just as I was prepared to do with Crakehall. I'd like for everybody to rank the 4 players listed above (Swann, Tyrell, Frey, and Stark). Who are you most willing to lynch? If you want, throw in Blackwood too, since I know Tully is going to come back and say he is the most suspicious. I think these lists are getting us nowhere and I've got to wonder (not for the first time) if maybe you don't have our best interests in mind. Why are we eliminating you, Tully, Baratheon and Arryn from the suspect pool? I've already mentioned why I'm suspicious of Tully, and there's part of me that still thinks you could be the OC or perhaps a convert. Actually, to be honest there aren't too many people I don't suspect right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Velaryon Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Swann, can you please rank Frey, Stark, Tyrell, and Blackwood, in the order you suspect them? I still think Dayne should swing... But then i'm sure you all know that by now Between those four, it's tough. I'd vote any of them to help a lynch, but i don't have strong suspicions on any i'm afraid. And no way am i doing a 2k post reread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.