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AGOT Mafia XLIX - The Foundation of the Kingsguard


House Targaryen

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A little vote analysis may be helpful

[quote]DAY 1 LYNCH
8 votes for Thorne (Merryweather, Pommingham, Corbray, Smallwood, Grandison, Fell, Connington, Plumm)
2 votes for Wythers (Thorne, Mallister)
2 votes for Grandison (Tollett, Florent)
1 vote for Florent (Wythers)

2 players have not voted: Bar Emmon, Erenford.[/quote]

Bar Emmon may be excused for not voting D1 as he was a replacement and didn’t actually show until after the vote was cast. It makes no sense for Erenford to not vote as the symp so I’m giving him CI status. I have a theory that FM Florent still hadn’t made contact with his partner, the Thorne lynch was looking done so it was better for vote analysis to be off the lynch.

[quote]DAY 2 LYNCH
7 votes for Grandison (Mallister, Fell, Plumm, Smallwood, Florent, Erenford, Pommingham)
1 vote for Smallwood (Tollett, Wythers) (Targ has yet to correct this and still shows my vote as Erenford, FYI)
1 vote for Mallister (Corbray)

3 players have not voted: Bar Emmon, Connington, Grandison.[/quote]

Why did Bar Emmon miss this vote? That’s 2 days with no real substantive post and no vote record.


[quote]DAY 3 LYNCH
6 votes for Plumm (Pommingham, Wythers, Fell, Erenford, Smallwood, Tollett)
1 vote for Pommingham (Mallister)
1 vote for Fell (Bar Emmon)
1 vote for Erenford (Plumm)

2 players have not voted: Corbray, Florent.[/quote]

Florent is one who didn’t make a vote today. Corbray at least presented somewhat of an excuse. But After 3 days Florent also has no substantive post and misses a vote.

[quote]DAY 4 LYNCH
5 votes for Erenford (Smallwood, Fell, Wythers, Corbray, Pommingham)
1 vote for Bar Emmon (Mallister)

3 players have not voted: Bar Emmon, Erenford, Florent.[/quote]

Both Bar Emmon and Florent miss the vote on Day 4. I can’t believe we’ve had 4 lynches and BE has not voted in 3 of them. If you are innocent, you owe the innocent team an apology. Florent has not voted in 2 of the 4 lynches and has contributed even less, if that’s possible. Neither has put forward any notable effort to build cases or put pressure on players.

I say we lynch BE today and Florent tomorrow or vise-a-versa.
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[quote name='House Florent' post='1303690' date='Apr 6 2008, 22.46']Perhaps their internet wasn't working properly :ninja:[/quote]


[quote name='House Florent' post='1303704' date='Apr 6 2008, 22.57']We were the [i]only[/i] responses, besides you and Pomm :P[/quote]


Seriously, if I were the ninja, you'd be dead right now.

You seem to have no interest in the innocents winning.
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[quote name='House Corbray' post='1303895' date='Apr 7 2008, 04.11']So, let's explain some things. Wythers, I'm struggling hard not to get myself modkilled, for apparent reasons. There are now 7 of us, and tommorow there will be 5. If I was to be modkilled, we'd be down to 4 tommorow, which would lose the game for us if we don't lynch a FM today. So, basically, you were complaining about an extra lynch I gave you? Not sure if I follow your logic.[/quote]

Fair enough. I've said before that I believe your tech issues and you're not on my short list.

[quote]Since there was no counterclaim, and Carpe wasn't lying, it's fair to assume that the symp was already lynched. Shabba claims and makes codes when a symp, so I think either TGT or GG was one. Of course, there is also a chance that the symp was accidentally NKed, but I'm pretty sure that we're dealing with 2 FM right now.[/quote]

That's my working theory as well.

[quote]I'm worried about [b]Wythers [/b]right now. He does look contributive, but I can see all of this as derailing us.[/quote]

A fair criticism for days 1 and 2, but for the last few days I've just not had the time to do much. I've just coat-tailed on players that I trust. Tollett, Pommingham, Smallwood and Mallister. I don't think I've been derailing anything since. Tell me, if you think I am FM, enough to drop a vote on me, who makes sense as my partner? I understand Mallister's case as a symp for Grandison, but GG came back inno, so who makes sense to you?

[quote]I might vote BE if am presented a case on him.[/quote]

Looking over the votes, I can't believe Bar Emmon got this far contributing so little. But doing the last re-read, I actually feel worse about Florent. But I'm hesitant because I know I was too focused on Florent early and because I don't trust myself right now because I've been way off so far.

[quote]I'd also like to see some vote analysis, since it seems that 4 innocents have been lynched up until now. I realise that I seem like a lazy son of a bitch, but I'm posting from an Internet cafe right now and lack the time and money to continue.[/quote]

I posted the final votes but haven't had the time to really analyze it beyond my notes above. I will try this afternoon after my meeting.
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Wythers, while your recent posts make you look better, the part where you ask for your partners is the one a cofident FM would make. I can't shake the feeling that you're guilty. I'll see the rest of your vote analysis, since you used the done part of it only to pursue your current suspects. Not a bad job there, you've almost convinced me that one of them is guilty, but I'm more suggestive now than usually. I'd like to see cases on those players, but the Fell lynch still seems the most appealing, since you
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[quote name='House Corbray' post='1304536' date='Apr 7 2008, 14.40']Wythers, while your recent posts make you look better, the part where you ask for your partners is the one a cofident FM would make. I can't shake the feeling that you're guilty. I'll see the rest of your vote analysis, since you used the done part of it only to pursue your current suspects. Not a bad job there, you've almost convinced me that one of them is guilty, but I'm more suggestive now than usually. I'd like to see cases on those players, but the Fell lynch still seems the most appealing, since you[/quote]

I ask you about who you think my partners could be because I'm interested in your theories. We only have 7 players left and that doesn't leave too many possible combos if you think that 2 of them are FM.

We're at Day 5 and we've had some reliable info on the innocence of over half the players. i think only one of them could have been the symp. So we need to make logical choices for the lynch, not "bad vibes." If you have a case against me, make it. I want to respond to it so people can read it and we can start to eliminate suspects and narrow our choices. To me, logically we need to choose between Bar Emmon and Florent today. My cobbled together re-read of the thread today, tho fragmented has left me more assured about you and Fell.
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What I meant by the internet comment was that perhaps Corbray was experiencing problems while sending the PM, which is why he couldn't send it right away.^

Also, Smallwood asked me a question about what I thought about BE posted, after the Pomm NK.

Was he talking about this, and how he [i]left[/i] afterwards?:

[quote name='House Bar Emmon' post='1303657' date='Apr 6 2008, 21.12']Shit, that's a sorry sight to come back to. Looks like I need to do some reevaluating. :([/quote]

Pretty suspicious if you ask me.

:lol: Well I have to go too, I'll be back in around 4 hours.
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[quote name='House Florent' post='1304599' date='Apr 7 2008, 15.18']What I meant by the internet comment was that perhaps Corbray was experiencing problems while sending the PM, which is why he couldn't send it right away.^

Also, Smallwood asked me a question about what I thought about BE posted, after the Pomm NK.

Was he talking about this, and how he [i]left[/i] afterwards?:



Pretty suspicious if you ask me.

:lol: Well I have to go too, I'll be back in around 4 hours.[/quote]

:mad:

That's it? No comments on the case made against you? No theories on Bar Emmon? No votes? No response to Corbray's call of a mass reveal? Same as we have gotten from you all game: Nothing.
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King Aegon enters the room.


"Knights, I have heard that they are playing a similar game like ours somewhere beyond the horizon. They say they have less knights but they still talk more then my knights do. I'm not able to abide that, so speak up, my fellow knights!"

:tantrum:
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[quote name='House Wythers' post='1304605' date='Apr 7 2008, 15.26']:mad:

That's it? No comments on the case made against you? No theories on Bar Emmon? No votes? No response to Corbray's call of a mass reveal? Same as we have gotten from you all game: Nothing.[/quote]

And this is one of the main points against Florent. He pops make, makes a comment or two, adds nothing to the game and then disappears. He is still flying below the radar and still not contributing. It's day 5 he needs to either help us, prove he is an innocent or be sent home.
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Well, that was it for then, because I had to get somewhere.

Also, Corbray suggested that we reveal our roles... Is that a good idea? Again, new :(

BE believed Erenford was guilty, when Mallister thought he was not. BE doesn't place a vote, waiting for something to come up, or for someone to counter-claim. And as Wythers said, he has missed 3 votes. What's with the lack of voting? Yes, I know I missed two, but still :(

[quote name='House Bar Emmon' post='1302850' date='Apr 6 2008, 11.17']But, that being said, I also think it is very important that we wait for Corbray (or at least as long as we can) before deciding to trust Pommingham all the way.[/quote]

After this post, he doesn't come back until Erenford was revealed innocent (or doesn't post again, anyway) Right now, I suspect Bar Emmon and Corbray as partners. The only thing Corbray says about the other is "I may be able to compromise on BE." This doesn't necessarily say that he'll vote for him. In his last post, he says he's almost convinced that either BE or Florent are guilty (from Wythers' vote analysis), and says that the Fell lynch is still the most appealing. So, who does he think is suspicious? Who is he willing to vote for? He kept his vote on Wythers, even though he seemingly thinks that there are more suspicious people out there. If he doesn't come back by the end of the day... His vote will still be on Wythers, kind of like a throw-away vote. Of course, he should have no objection to voting for someone who he knows is innocent, if he is indeed a FM.

Right now, I'll cast my vote on [b]Bar Emmon[/b].
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[quote name='House Florent' post='1305020' date='Apr 7 2008, 19.16']Also, Corbray suggested that we reveal our roles... Is that a good idea? Again, new :([/quote]

If you are roled then I suggest you do it now. We don't have much more time to sort out reveals and give others a chance to counter-claim. So if you got something to say I suggest you say it.

[quote]BE believed Erenford was guilty, when Mallister thought he was not. BE doesn't place a vote, waiting for something to come up, or for someone to counter-claim. And as Wythers said, he has missed 3 votes. What's with the lack of voting? Yes, I know I missed two, but still :(



After this post, he doesn't come back until Erenford was revealed innocent (or doesn't post again, anyway) Right now, I suspect Bar Emmon and Corbray as partners. The only thing Corbray says about the other is "I may be able to compromise on BE."

Right now, I'll cast my vote on [b]Bar Emmon[/b].[/quote]

BTW this convinces me not very much that you and BE are not partners. There always comes a time when the FM have to cut times and when both are on the line that is the time to do it.
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It is day 5.

7 players remain: Bar Emmon, Corbray, Fell, Florent, Mallister, Smallwood, Wythers.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Bar Emmon (Wythers, Florent)
1 vote for Wythers (Corbray)
1 vote for Florent (Fell)

3 players have not voted: Bar Emmon, Mallister, Smallwood.

There are 7 hours left in the day.
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