AGOT Mafia LIII

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1389664' date='Jun 9 2008, 06.43']First off after a quick re-read I want to say that Harte does not sit right with me. It’s probably because he’s abrasive, I’ll give you a quick re-read in a min just to make sure there’s not another reason your pinging my radar.


Jordayne thank you for posting your reasoning (I was just about to ask you for it :P )
It is a weird post by Rambton and from it he does seem unaware of the innocent’s exact winning conditions. Anyone who read their role PM or the Mod posts should be aware of this. Not everyone reads all the Mod posts at the beginning of the game and I believe its normally RI’s who don’t read. Overall I believe Rambton was just making RP - (I don’t think anyone could [i]really[i/] call Tyrion a sweet little innocent).

Before you accuse me of defending him –( Guess that I am in a sense) I’m around now and had something to say. I might not be around after Rambton shows up again.

The other thing that has been a bit off is the Ashford – Dalt and Harte triangle. I know we have 3 evil factions, But I still think it very unlikely that more than one of these would be evil, and probably more likely to be three bored innocents having the chance to get involved in the game. I will be re-reading this when I take a look at Harte, so expect slightly more comments latter.[/quote]
Defends Rambo and Dalt

[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1389709' date='Jun 9 2008, 07.35']After re-reading Harte I can find no real reason to suspect him any more than the others. Yes He’s a bit abrasive, but that looks like his style, and I think he’s trying to move the game along. I also think Inchfield is trying to progress the game and so far I can find nothing suspect.

Ashford and Rambton – I think they where just having fun at the start of the game. I would expect most evils to be more careful with their early posts. Right now your on the slightly more innocent than the rest group.

Dalt was also involved in fun early stage, but to me his posts did not feel quiet as free flowing. I don’t think forced is the word, but I do think he re-read everything carefully before he posted. I find this suspect.

However on re-reading the one thing that struck me was Yronwood’s Vote on Norrey




This to me strikes me as opportunistic. Norrey has hardly been here and apparently is too over defensive when saying he’s not gonna be around much on a Sunday, so your not gonna get Norrey to say much. – Yes I want Norrey to say some more, and hopefully he will latter. Yronwood was asked by Inchflield earlier to re-read the thread and make a comment, It feels like Yronwood was looking for an excuse to vote for someone so he could be seen to contribute. I know its hard on day one as not that much happens.

So [b]Yronwood[/b] You like the case on Rambton, but you think Norrey is more worthy of your vote. Why?

Edited to add quote[/quote]

Bit of distancing on Dalt this time around, but doesn't actually vote him. Futher defence of rambo, who was under some pressure.

[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1392915' date='Jun 10 2008, 17.50']Sorry I got delayed.

I know this is goning to sound completely crazy but I can not support a Mooton Lynch or a Rambton Lynch. I wish I could explain it to you all. But your are going to have to wait for the spoilers.

I am either right or insane. I can feel Piper laughing at me. I don't expect anyone to be swayed by my faith in thier innocents.

The early case on [b]Carron[/b] had some merrit - especially when they said they would be arround. I don't recall them saying much since.[/quote]

The famous theory. Defends rambo and maybe helps push the OC to reveal?

[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1394405' date='Jun 11 2008, 16.38']I need to change my Meds. The ones I'm taking obviously arn't working.



Rambton I [i]want[/i] to believe you. But I am not sure I can afford to.

My Gut tells me that having Good Roles as well as Innocent Cult make things very hard on the FM and Serriel Killer.

If we believe the Cult are innocent - (Which we cannont confirm by CF result) then we have 2 VPI's and depending on your point of view me as a PI (probably Insane)

against the FM 3-4 and remaining innoncents

Having too many CI's really screws up the chances for the FM and we should loose a CI tonight but gain another via convert. Having extra good roles sounds too much.

Rambton do you have a code anywhere to prove that you intended to claim Guard? (I doubt this cos I think you would have allready posted it)
What will your CF result sat when you die?


I need to re-read the entire thread with referance to Norrey as OC, and Rambton as possible Innocent Guard.[/quote]

A redeeming post, asking Rambo for a code that isn't there. Maybe too heavy for distancing, as it wasnt needed?


[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1394803' date='Jun 11 2008, 19.40']Dalts here, and has not claimed anything.

If Harte is telling the truth then he was guarded by Uffing.

I think we should lynch Rambton and I would suggest the cultists consider converting Harte[/quote]

Given up on rambo. Let him die, but take Harte with him, so you and dalt live on?


[quote name='House Blackbar' post='1394967' date='Jun 11 2008, 22.03']Yes.


I mean this is even more crazy than what I thought I knew, but for parranoid theories has anyone considered Nossey and Mooton might be lying. and their really FM? Ok so we've had no counter claim


Ok real reason is a quick night. You might as well investigate someone. a Name is just easy to type as No Action.[/quote]

You mean so if it's a conversion, he can be pushed to reveal who it was converted? Doesn't benefit innocents.

But, i dare say cult would have announced it anyway, unless they avoided any scrutiny.



Conclusion: Not a terribly strong case. Maybe more a "don't write him off entirely" case. I can't say I can particularly support my own case here, but it's better out than in. :P

[Magic Mirror]

Thanks Mr Fish.

That does make things not look as good for Velaryon. there was a good chance Dalt was going to be converted/Killed. the other main option most people where talking about was Harte.

It looks like planned distancing. and when you add that with day 2's taking Rambton's place on the Mooton Mob, thus keeping your lynch as an option. There was a good chance people wouldn't follow me and not vote for either of Mooton or Rambton.

[House Ashford]

General ramblings:

The Fish is safe. If he's not on our side, the cult deserve to draw with us.

That leaves me to lynch one of Harte, Vela, Turtle or Black.

If Turtle is guilty, i'll be pissed off at him. Sure you play to win, but using "replacement" status as an excuse to stay silent when guilty is poor gamesmanship. We've not had a "free lynch" to get rid of dead weight really...

Harte, I'm tempted to give a pass at least until the end game. I think he "may" be guilty, but if so it's a been a well played hand, so he's deserved an extra day.

Vela, I need to look at next. That's my job in the next hour or so. If I don't manage it, it'll be in 2-3 hours time.

Black, i'm almost inclined to write off as PI, but there is a nagging doubt.

My current choices, pre-Vela re-read would be Vela, Turtle, Harte, Black. In that order.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1391890' date='Jun 10 2008, 09.07']Velaryon - 11 posts.

However, 7 of them were useless "i'm here", "wow malc's dead" or jokey posts.

The 4 posts he made include an "Ashford's guilty for wanting mod ruels enforced", a couple of "wow, last minute, who should we get rid of?" and a "lets ignore the killers and attack the cult for now".

Could be a cultist throwing a red herring, hoping that he'd be immune from said investigation,[b] or more likely a killer trying to deflect attention.[/b][/quote]

I think the fish had a good sum up of Vela, but on top of it i'd like to bring back to the front the fact that they suggested we ignored the cult in favour of finding the FM. Even at the time, I saw it as an attempt to distance from the FM.

I'd also like to point out that Vela did had a VERY slow start to the game. Tried to skate through the dangerous early game, hoping we'd just lynch a fellow innocent or a cult/sk i guess?


[b]Velaryon[/b] stays my #1.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1395735' date='Jun 12 2008, 17.24']I think the fish had a good sum up of Vela, but on top of it i'd like to bring back to the front the fact that they suggested we ignored the cult in favour of finding the FM. Even at the time, I saw it as an attempt to distance from the FM.

I'd also like to point out that Vela did had a VERY slow start to the game. Tried to skate through the dangerous early game, hoping we'd just lynch a fellow innocent or a cult/sk i guess?


[b]Velaryon[/b] stays my #1.[/quote]

:dunno: I was unavailable in RL on the first RL day. Mods knew I would be checking in before days end, so they let me play.

nice job in the last couple posts trying to look like you are doing your own work now. Lame reasoning though.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Velaryon' post='1395774' date='Jun 12 2008, 12.47']:dunno: I was unavailable in RL on the first RL day. Mods knew I would be checking in before days end, so they let me play.

nice job in the last couple posts trying to look like you are doing your own work now. Lame reasoning though.[/quote]


Please, don't let me hold you back from analysing all surviving players and listing them in the order you'd like to vote them off.

I guess it's harder to do for you, as a killer, isn;'t it? The fact you know the case is bullshit makes it harder to make it real in your own head, and thus less beleivable. :-(

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

6 players remain: Ashford, Blackbar, Estermont, Harte, Mooton, Velaryon.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Velaryon (Mooton, Ashford)

4 players have not voted: Blackbar, Estermont, Harte, Velaryon.


approx 17.5 hours remain

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Mooton' post='1395227' date='Jun 12 2008, 08.09']Maester! MAESTER!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Hehehe.... I did get [color="#FF0000"]my[/color] Dalt kill though![/quote]

I don't suppose there is any chance that you are the OC? Your wording has been nagging at me.

If so, I would much prefer to be investigated than lynched. Just a thought.

Actually, I am not really looking forward to this endgame because I am pretty undecided on the remaining players.

I'm not sure that it matters if I survive today since at least 3 remaining players (Ashford, Blackbar, and Mooten) seem inclined to lynch me. If they lynched someone else and missed, they would definitely want to lynch me with the next opportunity and that would be game over. May as well get it over with now so you can focus on the real baddie with the last lynch.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Velaryon' post='1395787' date='Jun 12 2008, 12.55']I don't suppose there is any chance that you are the OC? Your wording has been nagging at me.

If so, I would much prefer to be investigated than lynched. Just a thought.

Actually, I am not really looking forward to this endgame because I am pretty undecided on the remaining players.

I'm not sure that it matters if I survive today since at least 3 remaining players (Ashford, Blackbar, and Mooten) seem inclined to lynch me. If they lynched someone else and missed, they would definitely want to lynch me with the next opportunity and that would be game over. May as well get it over with now so you can focus on the real baddie with the last lynch.[/quote]

OC or convert, he's dead tonight unless someone reveals themselves as healer or the like...

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1395793' date='Jun 12 2008, 17.57']OC or convert, he's dead tonight unless someone reveals themselves as healer or the like...[/quote]

True.

[House Wythers]

Briefly here. I'm sorry I'm just popping in and out, but short of a brief check-in around midday, weekdays kinda suck for me.

I don't have a PM. I am now going to [s]spam[/s] calmly PM the mods about this. Again. And if one of you's the guard, can you just claim so I can yell at you? Please?

[quote name='House Mooton' post='1395257' date='Jun 12 2008, 03.21']Harte... you said that you could tell if someone was Cult by the way his feet smelled -- you smelled mine and got that result. If you sniff an innocent (which you hopefully did last night) do you get a result that indicates innocence?

And if you do, could the "there is no result" that you got from Vel mean that your nose knew that Vel wasn't Cult, and your nose knew that he wasn't innocent? If Vel is FM, perpahs that marvelous schnoz of yours gave you no result becuase it can't "process" FM feet?[/quote]
My only result so far was House Mooton is a member of the Cult/Maesters. Nothing on Vel. Right now, nothing on my Blackbar investigation either, which confounds me. As for not being able to process FM feet, I think the role PM would've mentioned that, right?

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Harte' post='1395840' date='Jun 12 2008, 18.34']Briefly here. I'm sorry I'm just popping in and out, but short of a brief check-in around midday, weekdays kinda suck for me.

I don't have a PM. I am now going to [s]spam[/s] calmly PM the mods about this. Again. And if one of you's the guard, can you just claim so I can yell at you? Please?


My only result so far was House Mooton is a member of the Cult/Maesters. Nothing on Vel. Right now, nothing on my Blackbar investigation either, which confounds me. As for not being able to process FM feet, I think the role PM would've mentioned that, right?[/quote]

Why would anyone guard you? The cult can't possibly be lying at this point except about being evil or good, and Mooten is the admitted last cult member. There is no way that anyone who has played mafia would believe that a cult finder could detect FM, so the guard action, if any, must just be to f*ck with you.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Velaryon' post='1395863' date='Jun 12 2008, 18.47']Why would anyone guard you? The cult can't possibly be lying at this point except about being evil or good, and Mooten is the admitted last cult member. There is no way that anyone who has played mafia would believe that a cult finder could detect FM, so the guard action, if any, must just be to f*ck with you.[/quote]

Duh, sorry.

An innocent guard trying to stop the last FM.

Hmm... that could be evidence that you are PI.

I am not the innocent guard, but that could make things easier. I have no role, so lynching me might be better than taking out an innocent guard at random. Part off the job of RIs is to protect players with roles.

If the guard reveals tomorrow, and confirms that Harte was guarded (and we still had a NK) then there are either 2 FM left and we lost, or there is 1 FM left and it is not Harte.

So, if I get lynched today, Mooten is the NK tonight, then we go to night.....

If the FM takes out Harte, that leaves the guard free to identify which of the last two players is the FM, and there is a 50/50 chance that the guard would prevent the NK.

Wow, that could be a good save by the innocents.

otherwise, if the FM strikes out at one of the others trying to get the NK, the FM might still be guarded and lose, or else the guard chooses poorly and the FM kills the guard, leaving Harte, the FM, and the last innocent. Tough choice for Harte between whomever.

That is just quick thinking on my part, could be completely wrong if I missed something.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Velaryon' post='1395894' date='Jun 12 2008, 14.05']Duh, sorry.

An innocent guard trying to stop the last FM.

Hmm... that could be evidence that you are PI.

I am not the innocent guard, but that could make things easier. I have no role, so lynching me might be better than taking out an innocent guard at random. Part off the job of RIs is to protect players with roles.

If the guard reveals tomorrow, and confirms that Harte was guarded (and we still had a NK) then there are either 2 FM left and we lost, or there is 1 FM left and it is not Harte.

So, if I get lynched today, Mooten is the NK tonight, then we go to night.....

If the FM takes out Harte, that leaves the guard free to identify which of the last two players is the FM, and there is a 50/50 chance that the guard would prevent the NK.

Wow, that could be a good save by the innocents.

otherwise, if the FM strikes out at one of the others trying to get the NK, the FM might still be guarded and lose, or else the guard chooses poorly and the FM kills the guard, leaving Harte, the FM, and the last innocent. Tough choice for Harte between whomever.

That is just quick thinking on my part, could be completely wrong if I missed something.[/quote]

You missed the best part.

If I was the killer, and the final day dawns, the first thing I would say is "Hi, I am the innocent guard, and i guarded X."

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1395909' date='Jun 12 2008, 19.14']You missed the best part.

If I was the killer, and the final day dawns, the first thing I would say is "Hi, I am the innocent guard, and i guarded X."[/quote]

Well, it was always going to come down to a judgment call anyway. The FM are always motivated to bring the least trustworthy/most suspicious innocents into the endgame.

All the more reason why Harte must be the NK target tomorrow night.

You, Blackbar and Estermont make a find endgame choice for the FM. I don't relish that choice, but I would probably have voted for you if I had been in the endgame with you. At least ahead of either of those two.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Ashford' post='1395909' date='Jun 12 2008, 19.14']You missed the best part.

If I was the killer, and the final day dawns, the first thing I would say is "Hi, I am the innocent guard, and i guarded X."[/quote]

Plus we can hope that the innocent guard has a code that predates this conversation.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='House Velaryon' post='1395933' date='Jun 12 2008, 14.30']Plus we can hope that the innocent guard has a code that predates this conversation.[/quote]

Then it's a real judgement call. I mean, killers can set false trails...

That said if they also coded in their choices every night (and as such couldnt change their mind based on whats safe to say) I think i'd beleive it

[House Tyrell]

I thought I would list both my and Norrey's suspect lists. I do this in case the person lynched insn't FM. I'll be night killed of course, so you will need to know our thinking

[u]Mooton[/u]
Teir 1: Velaryon
Teir 2: Harte, Estermont
Teir 3: Ashford, Blackbar.

[u]Norrey[/u]
1. Velaryon
2. Estermont
3. Harte/Ashford
5. Blackbar

Last night before Norrey sent in the conversion we spent 2 hours going over everything. He wanted to convert Velaryon; I wanted to convert Dalt (thus the reference to "my" Dalt kill.) The reason we chose Dalt over Vel comes down to this: Dalt was very anti innocent cult, and Vel at least acted like he would entertain the possibility.

1) If Dalt had been an innocent, he would have been forced to be pro-cult and would help me get Vel lynched.

2) A dead FM Vel meant that I would have to beat back both Dalt and Harte today without Norrey's help. Not fun for the Fish.

***
Harte... I don't know that your role pm would have said it. If it said originally cult/not a cult then no big deal... If it said cult/innocent then the mods are stuck when you sniff FM feet. Look, that is your call. If you say no, then it's no. Its a longshot anyway.

***
Notice that both Norrey and I have Blackbar at the bottom of our lists. He is who we trust the most (the Seven help you Blackie if you end up being the last baddie.) I am not sure why he was on Norrey's good side (I do have all our conversations saved, so perhaps it is in there) but as for me, here is my thinking.

Why would a FM out his FM partner as the OC (Blackie outed Ram as OC)? Blackie would then later have to explain why Ram wasn't night killed. Not to mention Blackie knew that I knew who the OC was. I could have set him right at anytime. That just doesn't make sense to me for Blackie to be FM.

[House Tyrell]

I would like to see your list of suspects Vel.

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='House Mooton' post='1395962' date='Jun 12 2008, 19.48']I thought I would list both my and Norrey's suspect lists. I do this in case the person lynched insn't FM. I'll be night killed of course, so you will need to know our thinking[/quote]

Good point about Blackbar.

That leaves Ashford and Estermont as potential baddies from my POV.

I wish there was some way to convince everyone of my innocence, but if you can't see it by reading my posts, I doubt there is anything I can say at this point to change your mind. I'll be around off and on if there are any questions or explanations wanted from me, but I think that we have said what needs to be said, unless Estermont wants to go for post #25.