Mafia 54: Return of the Cannibal

[House Velaryon]

Well, my thoughts haven't changed from the start of the day. I still think Whitehill is FM and SK is either Strong or Tyrell. And nobody said anything which would make the choice between Strong and Tyrell easier. Lynching Whitehill seems to be much more safe move.

[House Velaryon]

Random thoughts. If Whitehill is FM, he must really care about finding SK, so perhaps we should rely on his judgement and agree that Strong is guilty. But if somehow he is SK himself, we shouldn't believe any word he says. And if he is innocent, I absolutely don't understand his obscession with Strong. I think he is guilty of what he accuses Tyrell: making a theory first and then choosing facts fitting it.
Tyrell, during all the game, is unable to have more than one suspect at any moment. Earlier I cleared him for exactly this reason, but now I am in doubt.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 6.

5 players remain: Brax, Strong, Templeton, Tyrell, Whitehill.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Whitehill (Tyrell)
1 vote for Strong (Whitehill)

3 players have not voted: Brax, Strong, Templeton.

[House Wythers]

There really aren't any links between Whitehill and anyone else that I could find. As a killer, he is a lot more likely to be the SK than the FM. I don't think I have ever put him on my FM list, but he has been one of very few choices for the SK.

[House Velaryon]

Result of rereading Grandison:
[quote name='House Grandison']I am pretty sure Tyrell is innocent. Strong seems pretty straightforward, when he actually is around to post. I'm not sure what to think about Myatt.

eta: Strong and Whitehill are almost definitely innocent, and Tyrell is probably innocent. I will probably check out Myatt, everyone thinks he's bad but I think he looks okay.[/quote]So, since Whitehill wants to lynch Strong so hard, he definitely has a reason to kill Grandy. Grandy won't support this lynch.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='House Brax' post='1429681' date='Jul 6 2008, 20.56']There really aren't any links between Whitehill and anyone else that I could find.[/quote]What do you think about my yesterday case connecting him with Myatt?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Templeton' post='1429691' date='Jul 6 2008, 22.04']Result of rereading Grandison:
So, since Whitehill wants to lynch Strong so hard, he definitely has a reason to kill Grandy. Grandy won't support this lynch.[/quote]

So you think Whitehill an FM?

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Templeton' post='1429692' date='Jul 6 2008, 22.08']What do you think about my yesterday case connecting him with Myatt?[/quote]

That is true. But why would he have joined the mob on him? It really wasn't needed (or was it? IF he thinks he found the SK then we would have the CF and we would know if he and Myatt were teammates)

I can see your point of him connected to Myatt. But why didn'e he give Myatt better advise about how to act and what to post ans such?

Are you thinking of voting him? I have about 45 minutes or so before I turn in for the night.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='House Brax' post='1429693' date='Jul 6 2008, 21.08']So you think Whitehill an FM?[/quote]I am not 100% sure, but find it most probable. Now I think much about alternative variants and these just don't make sense for me.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='House Brax' post='1429699' date='Jul 6 2008, 21.14']That is true. But why would he have joined the mob on him?[/quote]For the alibi. You can't support a partner for infinity. And he thought he could jump off at any moment.

[quote]I can see your point of him connected to Myatt. But why didn'e he give Myatt better advise about how to act and what to post ans such?[/quote]Perhaps, it was too hard for Myatt to follow advices. It often is, even for more experienced players.

[quote]Are you thinking of voting him? I have about 45 minutes or so before I turn in for the night.[/quote]Then, good night. We'll wait for Strong to appear or to be modkilled.

[House Wythers]

[quote name='House Templeton' post='1429707' date='Jul 6 2008, 22.22']Then, good night. We'll wait for Strong to appear or to be modkilled.[/quote]

Do you think he will be mod killed? if he was able to inform them of his problem, maybe they gave him an extension? If he can post from work tomorrow he might be able to make it in the time limit too.

We have 14 hours left. I'll be back in about 8 1/2 hours.

[House Targaryen]

The mods have given Strong a six-hour extension. I'm really hoping he can post from work tomorrow or something.

I'm considering extending the time until the end of the day to coincide with Strong's modkill time, and I'm wondering if anyone has any huge complaints if today continues for a bit longer than scheduled. I'm of mixed opinions.

-Shabba

[House Ashford]

Alright, I think its time for me to put all of my cards on the table. I'm the Guard.

Night 1, I guarded Tyrell. It was a shot at an under the radar player. I assumed that the SK would start killing as early as possible, and was hoping to get lucky and block him. There were 2 kills, so I obviously guarded the wrong person. Meaning that [u]Tyrell is not the SK[/u].

Which is why he's been on the bottom of my SK suspect list for the entire game.

[quote name='Whitehill']2) I don't think Tyrell is the SK. He was the first one to really start talking about the SK role, to the point where he even made a case that Egen is the SK. I don't think the SK would focus on the role that early. He goes to the bottom of that list.[/quote]

[quote name='Whitehill'][u]SK[/u]
Tier 1 - Jordayne
Tier 2 - Fell, Myatt, Strong, Templeton, Brax, Grandison
Tier 3 - Tyrell, Egen[/quote]

[quote name='Whitehill']I think Strong is more likely to be the SK than Tyrell.[/quote]

[quote name='Whitehill']I have consistently stated, throughout most of the game, that I do not believe Tyrell is the SK.[/quote]

On night 2, I was torn on whether or not I should use my power. I had to leave well before the day was over. I knew that by the time night rolled around, we would have 3 players dead who could have possibly been FM (the 2 lynches, plus whoever the SK had killed on night 1). The day 1 lynch was a suspect of mine - Overton. The day 2 lynch had the potential to be another suspect - Harte (when I had to send in my provisional PM, I didn't know whether or not he'd end up lynched). And I couldn't rule out Reyne or Costayne as possible FM either. So I figured there was a possibility that we were down to 1 FM. It wasn't likely, but it was possible, and I couldn't ignore that. I was worried about guarding a potential Healer, but I felt it was worth the risk to try to stop the kill. Especially since I didn't even know whether or not there was a Healer in the game.

I wasn't sure if I'd make it back before the end of the day, so I left a provisional to guard Harte. If Harte was lynched, I said to guard Brax. There was a kill, so I knew after night 2 that Brax wasn't a lone FM. It wasn't very useful information - all it meant was that, if Brax was FM, he still had at least one partner.

On night 3, I was hunting for both the SK and a possible lone FM. Pretty much everyone other than Tyrell and Egen were SK suspects for me. I had Grandison and Tyrell at the top of my FM suspect list, but it was as a pair, not individual FM. So everyone was pretty much on the same level - there were a lot of options. I ended up guarding Templeton. There ended up being 2 kills that night. Since then, I have known that [u]Templeton is not the SK[/u].

I was worried about being too obvious in dropping Templeton from my SK suspect list. I had been pretty blatant about Tyrell, mainly because I had found a good excuse to drop him to the bottom of the list. Couldn't come up with anything similar for Templeton, and I didn't want to be obvious about having somebody shoot to the bottom of my list after every odd night. So I just encouraged people to think he was innocent in general, without specifically bringing up the SK. I felt pretty safe in doing that. I knew he wasn't the SK, I knew he wasn't a lone FM, and I had done my partnership analysis...he only had 1 possible living partner (Strong). I felt it was likely that he was innocent, so I wanted to discourage his lynch -

[quote name='Whitehill']2) Templeton only has one possible partner - Strong. As a result, I don't think Templeton is likely to be FM.[/quote]

[quote name='Whitehill to Templeton']Already don't suspect you of being FM, and if there's reason to believe you can't be partnered with Strong, then I'd take you off the FM suspect list altogether.[/quote]

Note that the above comment doesn't make much sense in a vacuum. Why would I take Templeton entirely off of my FM suspect list based purely on the theory that he couldn't have any living partners? That would make no sense....because he obviously could be a FM with dead partners. Its a statement that doesn't fit at all....until you realize that I had guarded Templeton the night before. I [u]knew[/u] that he wasn't a lone FM. If he was evil, he had to have a living partner, and if he couldn't have a living partner, then he had to be innocent.

On night 4, there wasn't going to be an SK kill, so I was back to hunting lone FM. Templeton wasn't an option, and I didn't suspect Brax of being FM after the Tarth nightkill. I felt the FM could be found among Strong, Tyrell, and Grandison. I had relatively equal suspicion of each of them. I unfortunately chose to guard Grandison. He died. I obviously now wish I had chosen Tyrell or Strong instead.

So thats why I'm going after Strong. I know that Tyrell and Templeton aren't the SK. That leaves Strong and Brax as the only options. I suspect Strong more.

And even if Brax is the SK, I think Strong is still evil (either as a lone FM or one partnered with Tyrell). I can't say that about the reverse (i.e. if Strong is the SK, I don't think Brax is FM....I think we'd be down to just a lone FM of Tyrell in that situation).

I hope that explains things.

[House Velaryon]

Yes, this explain things.
I felt you must have some insider info, but I didn't think about a guard.
I want to believe you, and I suppose we can afford believing you even in case you are guilty.
We lynch Strong and you guard Brax.
Still, I won't vote until others will return..

[House Velaryon]

Well, not exactly.
If Strong will turn-up non-cannibal, than guard Brax. Otherwise, we should choose your target at the beginning of night, basing on Cf results.

You are evidently not FM now, since FM would gain nothing from this reveal. If you are SK... well, there is still big chance that Strong is FM.

[House Westerling]

[quote name='House Templeton' post='1429921' date='Jul 7 2008, 01.27']Yes, this explain things.[/quote]

But does it? I think it's a beautiful story, but it sounds just like a lie.

Allow me to quote a post from Egen:

[quote]And because nobody did this yet - here is the setup from the last cannibal game:

The Serial Killer

Mexal - Vyrwel - cannibal


The Chicago Mafia

Darkwill - Blackmont - killer
Harlot - Lynderly - killer
Piper of Chaos - Bolton - killer


The innocent prey

Grey Worm - Slynt - healer
Weekapaug - Cerwyn - bulletproof

Roleless innocents (Meat):

Alaerien - Dayne
Blue Rose of the North - Lonmouth
Dornish Prince - Harclaw
Eva_B - Clegane
Katran - Hightower
Mentat - Thorne
Pebble Cassandra - Redfort
Shadowbaby - Dondarrion
The Last Frey - Banefort[/quote]

So 15 player: 3 FM, 1 SK, a healer, a bulletproof and 9 meat. No guards.

Now this is Shabba (whom we all know is a lazy mod) in the mod sign up thread:

[quote]I'll mod 54. I plan on lifting the rules in their entirety from 42.5 (Cannibal in the Windy City), so it'll be an FM+SK game with an SK-CF.[/quote]

Now, it's certainly possible that Shabba changed the role distribution, but given that she's lazy, that she had the exact number of players as the last game and that she isn't that good at game-balancing, is it likely? I think not.

[quote]I felt you must have some insider info, but I didn't think about a guard.[/quote]

Insider info, huh? I must say I agree. Did you think about the Serial Killer?

[House Targaryen]

[size=7][b]MOD ANOUNCEMENT[/b][/size]


Your Mods have spoken with each other and are in agreement.

Day will be extended by 2 hours. Day will end at 19:32 (BST)
House Strong has a 6 hour extension. And will be Mod killed at 20:13 (BST)

That's 41 mins after Day has ended.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='House Tyrell' post='1429945' date='Jul 7 2008, 02.28']Insider info, huh? I must say I agree. Did you think about the Serial Killer?[/quote]I don't think the SK would so fiercely insist on lynching one particular player. FM, looking for SK, yes. SK, no.
You don't want to counterclaim, I suppose?

[House Westerling]

[quote name='House Templeton' post='1429947' date='Jul 7 2008, 02.33']I don't think the SK would so fiercely insist on lynching one particular player. FM, looking for SK, yes. SK, no.[/quote]

But he isn't! That was the whole point of the Myatt vote yesterday and my criticism against it. He just didn't care who got lynched. He had other preferences, sure, but did he bother to push them? Not really. The moment his case on Strong started making water (because of some of your comments I recall), he just voted for whoever he thought was the easiest lynch. I think this reveal is just an attempt to win favor from the two people he's clearing from being a SK: you and me.

[quote]You don't want to counterclaim, I suppose?[/quote]

No. I don't think there's a guard in this game. I sincerely had serious doubts between Whitehill and Strong, I went to sleep wondering if I had voted for the wrong person and contributed to loosing the game, but this reveal actually makes me feel much better about my Whitehill vote.

[House Velaryon]

[quote name='House Tyrell' post='1429949' date='Jul 7 2008, 02.49']I sincerely had serious doubts between Whitehill and Strong,[/quote]But why? From your PoV, if you are innocent, [i]both[/i] Whitehill and Strong are very likely guilty. Why to care so much whom of them to lynch?