AGOT Mafia 55

[House Dayne]

All hail Neo.

I have some questions for Diomedes the Deposed.

How did you come up with your short list? Why L'il A over the other 5 people on the short list?

Why did you refuse to kill Teucer? We went from 10/2 to 7/2 in one day (assuming there are 2 FM... and no symps) Why did you feel that allowing the modkill was the best choice? Did you even consider going to night?

[House Targaryen]

All contestors of todays quest please send their answers to the Hera alt.

Contestors are only those players who have chosen to worship Hera! ;)


Edit:

A little help: the president is [u]not[/u] Ulysses Grant!

[House Ashford]

Well, while the decision may have been a wrong one we got quite a lot of activity at the end of the day (which we wouldn't have got if we had just lynched Teucer with 12 hours more to go). I'm at work now, but I'll be back at lunchtime and try and look closely at the last four pages.

Hail Neoptolemus. May you rule and kill wisely.

[House Dondarrion]

Let us hope he chooses more wisely than Diom did.

I really want to know Diom, why you chose your kill? What great insights did you have?

[House Corbray]

I'm...King?

I mean,

I AM KING! ALL HAIL!

Give me your nominations, heroes.

I have a few ideas of my own, but let it not be said that I'm not a [i]listening[/i] autocrat.

[House Dondarrion]

I am really not happy with yesterday's king, so I am looking at him. I really don't understand his reasoning or the case on Ajax Lesser.

[quote name='Diomedes' post='1449172' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.44']I'm not going to kill Teucer. A modkill is like a free die-rolled lynch, and I'm not wasting that. Every lynch and kill that's decided by people who are NOT evil is good for the innocents.

Now, that being said, I would appreciate more votes and input. Also, if the Kingmaker is someone other than Teucer, I think it's best they reveal now so I don't kill them by accident. There's no reason for the FM to kill the Kingmaker, since a new one would just be appointed from the pool of innocents, so we shouldn't have to worry about the KM being nightkilled.[/quote]

This quote bothered me for 2 reasons (the one above): the "Every lynch and kill that's decided by people who are NOT evil is good for the innocents." Yes, we all know that water is wet. It was just the odd emphisis on this that struck a cord with me. Like saying "since I made the choice, I therefore cannot be evil"

The second thing, is his asking for the kingmaker to reveal. There is no way this could be a good decision on day one.



[quote name='Diomedes' post='1449820' date='Jul 21 2008, 19.00']Are you looking to be lynched? Because Menelaus was not on my list.[/quote]

Why were you not will to even consider anyone else?




[quote name='Diomedes' post='1450162' date='Jul 22 2008, 01.01']I like Pat's post on Meneleus, but I did not give Mene fair warning and do not want to surprise him at this point, although I hope tomorrow's king will take a look at Mene.

I have decided to spare Pat today and will be lynching one of the Ajaxes after all. I'm going to take another look at them to decide which one.

(So much for democracy. It's great to be King!)[/quote]

WTF? no fair warning to Mene? Why does he need it? Your job was to lynch the most suspicious, not give fair warning.

You have a lot to answer for, and if your answers fail, I hope the new king looks at you closely.

[Lady Gaga]

1. This is not good. It's been one day and we're down 3 innocents.

2. Neo is a fairly good choice I think, and hopefully we'll get things done.

3. Summary of Aggamemnon coming up.

4. Neo- if you want to share your suspects with us, I'm all ears.

[Lady Gaga]

Summary of the late Agamemnon's contributions:

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1448483' date='Jul 21 2008, 02.02']I think you're trying a little bit too hard with the whole symp clue, Phil. It was the third post in the game, and Menelaus hasn't been seen since. This makes me think it was a case of quick and poorly worded role play. But you took hold of that tiny thread just one post later and you've been trying to make quite the tapestry out of it.

Now your "case for executing Tuecer" shows that maybe you're just bloodthirsty. I do agree that if Tuecer doesn't show up, it would be wisest for our noble King to execute him. But you sure do seem eager for it to happen.[/quote]
1. Suspicious of Phil

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449197' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.55']I still think Teucer would be the best choice, but that is obviously thrown out of the books.

The question now remains: what to judge on? Who has been suspicious enough to kill with so little information to go by? Menelaus with his "symp clue" that only seemed like a symp clue to one or two people. Achilleus who was the target of the so-called symp clue?

Phil, who has come across as quite bloodthirsty. First with his repeated attempts to make the alleged symp clue a fact and than immediately jumping on the "kill Teucer" bandwagon?

Ajax the Greater, who has posted a bunch of silliness, which can be construed as getting his name out as a poster without posting anything of significance?

Idomeneus, who is pushing so hard for the random kill that is 3 to 4 times more likely to kill an innocent than a FM?

What do we, or Diomedes, base this vote on?[/quote]
Rementions Phil
Suspicious of Ajax for insubstancial contribution
Suspicious of Idomeneus for dice advocation

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449437' date='Jul 21 2008, 15.30']I'd say Big Ajax and Patroclus set off the same sort of bells in my head, but going through the thread, Patroclus seems to ring louder. Maybe it's because he has the second highest post count, but before I started a re-skim, I couldn't remember a single thing he'd said. Looking back through his posts, they're pretty much all nonsense but for three or four posts, one of which was a vote on our most absent friend.

As I said about Ajax the Greater a little while ago, both seem to have made an effort to appear to be participating without actually saying anything. But Patroclus has far exceeded the Greater's efforts.

The other three on the list haven't really popped onto my radar, though Idomeneus's staunch rooting for the die of death strikes me as too dangerous a play for a FM. And Achilleus nominating himself for death rather than go for the dice method is likely not something a FM would do.[/quote]
Suspicious of Patroclus the most, due to lack of contribution amongst large number of posts
Suspicious of Ajax due to same reasons, although Patroclus has surpassed Ajax
Has no other suspicions, though believes Idomeneus and Achilleus playing too dangerous games to be FM.

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449534' date='Jul 21 2008, 16.18']:thumbsdown: [i]Patroclus[/i]

Between the high post count of fluff, the overreaction to the suspicions based on his high fluff count and his repeated misreading/failure to read the rules, the guy just doesn't jibe for me.[/quote]
Agamemnon doesn't like Patroclus

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449563' date='Jul 21 2008, 16.31'][color="#FF0000"](Addressed to Patroclus)[/color]
I don't think Menelaus said anything about PMs, but here you are trying to turn an argument regarding the rules he didn't even use against him.

What else do you want me to find? For the fluff, all someone need do is look at your first 20 posts. For the misreading/misstating the rules, the next few. For the overreactions, your last several.

I suppose we can also add incredibly impatient to the list. I didn't know I had only 7 minutes to respond before you declared yourself the winner of this particular pissing match.[/quote]
Agamemnon's case against Patroclus

[quote name='Agamemnon' post='1449589' date='Jul 21 2008, 16.45']I'm not suspicious of you because you have the most posts. I'm suspicious of you because you have the most posts but up until 10 posts ago you'd contributed as much as Teucer.

It just seems convenient to me then you come up with the "well the last couple games the person with the most posts was evil, so because I'm telling you this my having the highest post count means I'm not evil."[/quote]
Agamemnon still doesn't like Patroclus
[color="#FF0000"]__________________________________________________________________________[/color]

Agamemnon's legacy:

1. Patroclus is the most suspicious of anyone by far
2. Ajax has commited the same crime(s) as Patroclus, though to a lesser extent. Suspicious.
3. Idomeneus is a complete dumbass, but his actions are a little too WIFOM to be a FM.
4. Achilleus is playing too dangerous a game to be a FM.


Patroclus, followed by Ajax, were Agamemnon's main suspicions. Was he killed for threatening a FM? Or because the killers thought he had a slim chance of being elected king? Or to send us after Patroclus and Ajax? Or some other reason?

[House Corbray]

I think Agamemnon may have been Kingmaker.

Right now, I'm suspicious of Diomedes. And Menelaus.

Patroclus I feel may be too obvious, but I'm not ruling him out. Big Ajax too.

The least suspicious to me as the game now stands are Achilleus and Idomeneus. However, both have done things which require further looks.

In fact, at this point, I'm open to killing quite a lot of people.

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='Neoptolemus' post='1450522' date='Jul 22 2008, 10.14']I think Agamemnon may have been Kingmaker.

Right now, I'm suspicious of Diomedes. And Menelaus.

Patroclus I feel may be too obvious, but I'm not ruling him out. Big Ajax too.

The least suspicious to me as the game now stands are Achilleus and Idomeneus. However, both have done things which require further looks.

In fact, at this point, I'm open to killing quite a lot of people.[/quote]
It's definitely possible. I guess that could be another reason he died, but hunting the KM makes no sense, as the role redistributes itself.

Both good people to look at. I'm worried about Diomedes in particular, but there's not much to build a case on, as he didn't have to contribute or do anything at all yesterday :unsure:

These were Agamemnon's suspicions.

Thank you? I have [i]no[/i] idea what I've done to convince you of my innocence, but thanks. If you want me to clarify anything, let me know. I agree that Achilleus seems innocent as well.

Unfortunately, you only get to choose one :P

[House Ashford]

I've re-read the thread from when I left onwards.

A few things stick out:

- Although I said I found Pat likely guilty and Menelaus likely innocent before I left for bed, I like Pat's case against Menelaus in his post 247. Menelaus does seem to choose his words very carefully (or maybe not enough).

- I also liked Neoptolemus' points against Big Ajax in his post 260. Maybe Dio just executed the wrong one?

- Finally, I like Achilles' points against Diomedes on day 2. The problem is I always tend to think that the mods would "fix" the random choice of King on day one if a FM came out. After all, it would mean starting with two players less automatically without having any say on the subject at all. Of course, the mods always say it's completely random, but can you trust them?

- Though I distrusted Ido on day one, his post saying he liked the kill choice before the CF result appeared is something that I don't think a FM would do (though a FM certainly would like the choice).

- Why does our new King thing Agamemnon might have been the KM (as in, more likely than any other innocent)? Since one can't be King and Kingmaker at the same time (at least I don't think so, certainly couldn't in last game), Neo can't know whether the role passed on or not.

I think I want to review one of my main suspects from yesterday: Phil. I'll have a re-read on him coming up at some time during the afternoon/evening. I'm going to the gym now (from the Greek, gymnos, which means naked :leer: ).

[Lady Gaga]

I'm headed out for several hours in a few minutes. Is anyone around?

[House Dayne]

Good morning

[quote name='Neoptolemus' post='1450522' date='Jul 22 2008, 08.14']I think Agamemnon may have been Kingmaker.

Right now, I'm suspicious of Diomedes. And Menelaus.

Patroclus I feel may be too obvious, but I'm not ruling him out. Big Ajax too.

The least suspicious to me as the game now stands are Achilleus and Idomeneus. However, both have done things which require further looks.

In fact, at this point, I'm open to killing quite a lot of people.[/quote]
My liege,

Did you mean you actually thought Agamemnon was kingmaker? If so, what gave you that impression? Or did you mean that you thought the FM were kingmaker hunting?

I think we should hold Diomedes to task for his awful showing of king. I'd still like him to answer the questions I put forth. And I'd like to see your answers to Achilleus questions as well.

Ido said [quote]I'm worried about Diomedes in particular, but there's not much to build a case on, as he didn't have to contribute or do anything at all yesterday[/quote] Well, yes and no. As king he didn't [i]have[/i] to contribute. And if Diomedes had chosen the lynch on a whim in the first 12 hours then it wouldn't have been as big a deal.

However, he waited 34 hours to make his decision and didn't contribute. From what I can tell he still made his desicion on a whim. My question is: why the 34 hour wait? Was it for show? Did you want us to think you were trying?

If the group thinks that it is unlikely that a FM/Symp was awarded the kingship day one, then we can let this go. But I think random.org doesn't care.

edited for clarity

[Lady Gaga]

[quote name='Philoctetes' post='1450738' date='Jul 22 2008, 12.10']As king he didn't [i]have[/i] to contribute.[/quote]
that's what I said

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Idomeneus' post='1450751' date='Jul 22 2008, 10.15']that's what I said[/quote]
Yeah, I know. That's why I quoted you.

[House Clegane]

To those who are bitching at me for taking nearly the whole time- fuck off. If I had taken less time, someone would have gotten on my case for being overly hasty, and since I was at work for most of yesterday, I couldn't make extended cases during that time. I got randomly selected as king on Day 1, which was nearly universally agreed on as a shit job because of having nothing to go on. I got asked to make a list of my suspects, and I did that. I re-read the thread at least 5 times over the course of yesterday. I decided against lynching Patroclus because I liked the fact that he brought up a NEW suspect at the end (Menelaus) rather than simply attacking one of the other people on my list in an effort to save his ass. But no one seemed to be around last night to respond to me and I had said I was going to choose someone from my small list to kill.

Secondly, I [size=7]hate[/size] cop-out no-lynches on any day, in any game, regardless of modkills. (Strategic no-kills later on is fine, but anyone who says 'Don't try to lynch on day 1 because the chances of hitting a bad guy are slim' has a poor understanding of probability.) The more nights we have, the more time the FM have to kill off people they want and manipulate the innocents. I will stand by lynching on Day 1 in any game, and I refuse to take shit for killing someone rather than killing Teucer or going to night with no kill. Any innocent that becomes King should take their best shot at a FM and should not feel bad if they miss, because after all, the odds are against us. In this game, lynches have a higher-than-normal chance of failure, since the killers are almost certainly not going to kill off their own partner, while innocents are shooting in the dark.

Answers to more questions shortly.

Edit: And making my decision in the first 12 hours? Are you fucking kidding me? Go back and read the first 12 hours of the game. People had barely said anything at all. And Teucer STILL would have been modkilled. We'd be in the exact same place, only I'd be taking worse shit now for making a "random" shot rather than an "educated" shot.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='Odysseus' post='1450602' date='Jul 22 2008, 16.59']I've re-read the thread from when I left onwards.

A few things stick out:

- Although I said I found Pat likely guilty and Menelaus likely innocent before I left for bed, I like Pat's case against Menelaus in his post 247. Menelaus does seem to choose his words very carefully (or maybe not enough).

- I also liked Neoptolemus' points against Big Ajax in his post 260. Maybe Dio just executed the wrong one?

- Finally, I like Achilles' points against Diomedes on day 2. The problem is I always tend to think that the mods would "fix" the random choice of King on day one if a FM came out. After all, it would mean starting with two players less automatically without having any say on the subject at all. Of course, the mods always say it's completely random, but can you trust them?

- Though I distrusted Ido on day one, his post saying he liked the kill choice before the CF result appeared is something that I don't think a FM would do (though a FM certainly would like the choice).

- Why does our new King thing Agamemnon might have been the KM (as in, more likely than any other innocent)? Since one can't be King and Kingmaker at the same time (at least I don't think so, certainly couldn't in last game), Neo can't know whether the role passed on or not.

I think I want to review one of my main suspects from yesterday: Phil. I'll have a re-read on him coming up at some time during the afternoon/evening. I'm going to the gym now (from the Greek, gymnos, which means naked :leer: ).[/quote]
I don't think this is very good reasoning. The mods wouldn't make the first king innocent because that would be like a free CF reveal. And since there are less mafia, the chances of it actually being a mafia are slim. I don't understand. Are you trying to say that Dio looks innocent? Are you just saying what stands out for you? I don't get it.

[House Tyrell]

[quote name='Diomedes']Strategic no-kills later on is fine, but anyone who says 'Don't try to lynch on day 1 because the chances of hitting a bad guy are slim' has a poor understanding of probability[/quote]
Well also, if we don't lynch someone with that small chance of hitting an FM, the FM will kill someone and are GUARANTEED to hit an innocent. The next day, if we don't lynch someone again, we are guaranteed again to lose someone from a night kill. So it's nearly always a better idea to lynch.

[House Clegane]

As to why I killed Ajax the Lesser...well, I guess I have to write up my reasoning, even if it's sort of pointless to do it for someone who's now been cleared of being a killer. (And I feel bad doing it on someone with whom I haven't played mafia in a long time. :( But, I did kill him for a reason.) These were AtL's last 4 posts...


At this point he is VOTING for Ajax the Greater...uses a bit of WIFOM.

[quote name='Ajax the Lesser' post='1449434' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.28']Bahh, that's silly. If anything I'd want Big Ajax to stick around so I have camoflauge :-D.

Big A was playing strange...very strange. Votig for yourself does not inspire confidence in other players. But truth be told, I'd be really suprised if he ended up being an FM, although a symp willing to take a bullet for the FM is possible. Although starting this early in the game is pretty unusual as well.[/quote]

More WIFOM (this time referring to Achilleus.)

[quote name='Ajax the Lesser' post='1449447' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.33']You'd be suprised at what an FM will be willing to do, in the hopes they would appear to be sincere.[/quote]

Some words of platitude...

[quote name='Ajax the Lesser' post='1449487' date='Jul 21 2008, 12.55']Sloppy thinking is not something innocence has a monopoly on, and it's just as dangerous to us in the hands of an FM as it is in our own.[/quote]

Engages in some speculation about role distribution...

[quote name='Ajax the Lesser' post='1450121' date='Jul 21 2008, 21.16']It's the beard, and my rugged manliness. It does that to people.

The only killer thing was a bit of a guess on balance, but I suck at balancing games, so I'm probably wrong. I'm having nightmares of 2 FM and 2 symps. :unsure:[/quote]

Basically, he had no substance to his posts and did not offer anything but generalities about the game and WIFOM reasoning. I thought it was fluffy contribution and, in flying low, he had a pretty good chance of being evil.

[House Clegane]

[quote name='Ajax the Great' post='1450814' date='Jul 22 2008, 09.39']Well also, if we don't lynch someone with that small chance of hitting an FM, the FM will kill someone and are GUARANTEED to hit an innocent. The next day, if we don't lynch someone again, we are guaranteed again to lose someone from a night kill. So it's nearly always a better idea to lynch.[/quote]

That was what I was implying when I said "In this game, lynches have a higher-than-normal chance of failure, since the killers are almost certainly not going to kill off their own partner, while innocents are shooting in the dark."

But thank you for your clarification.

By the way, the Kingmaker revealed early on Day 1 in the last Kingmaker game, and he survived until the end. The Kingmaker revealing can, at worst, have no effect on the innocents. At best, the FM will kill them and we'll end up with a new PI the next day when the new one claims. At worst, the Kingmaker is revealed for many days in a row and we avoid lynching a PI.