Mafia's Diamond Jubilee - Game 60

[House Redfort]

Wow... I go to bed, and I miss the [i]whole day[/i]?

Ok, my list of suspicion:
Tier 1: Magdalene
Tier 2: Robinson, Gonville and Cauius
Tier 3: Wolfson, Sidney Sussex
Tier 4 (CI): Peterhouse, Pembroke, Lucy Cavendish

[House Pommingham]

[quote name='Pembroke College' post='1625700' date='Dec 19 2008, 18.20']You're overstating our day 2 case against Emmanuel. Yeah, he was among our top suspects, but he wasn't the number 1 suspect. Hell, looking back, I know I said he looked bad, and I know that Hughes actually voted for him (for distance obviously). But were there a ton of other people going after him? I recall him simply being one of a few suspects that people were discussing, prior to Queen's reveal.

Also, you're saying that if they cut ties with Selwyn, they were also giving up Emm, so they therefore would have all wanted to fight against the Selwyn lynch. How does that make any sense? Think about it.

1) If your argument is true, and the rest of them all fought against the Selwyn lynch alongside Emm, then guess what - they'd all be tied to Selwyn as well. So instead of just Selwyn and Emm being in trouble, they'd all go down with that same ship. On day 1. Way too risky of a strategy for them to employ.

2) I never said that they cut ties with Selwyn. I'm suggesting that they spread out their votes, to employ a variety of strategies. They wouldn't want to all be caught by the same analysis. Some one person pushed the New Hall lynch, and my guess is that another snuck in on the Selwyn mob (while a third, Emm, was absent due to sickness).[/quote]

I might be mistaken but I'm pretty sure Emmanuel was the top suspect, considering Trinity's reveal and the mess that happened as a result.

As for them all fighting against the Selwyn lynch, who said they had to fight against it? All they had to do was push for other lynches instead of defending Selwyn. I'm not going to keep arguing about what the team of killers would or should have done, or what type of strategies they'd try to employ because it's pointless. The only strategy I'm interested in is the one the good guys use to win the game.

I believe the last killer is more likely to be Gonville or Clare, though I concede it could be Wolfson or Magdalene. I'm still not sure who I'll put my vote on. The only thing looking good for Clare at the moment is that King's does seem to have been the symp - why else would Queen's have been killed in the same manner as St. Cath? You'd think the two deaths would have been separated instead of done in the same manner.

[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1625715' date='Dec 19 2008, 18.35']Sidney Sussex College
Gonville and Caius College
Magdalene College
Robinson College
Clare College
Wolfson College
Pembroke College
Lucy Cavendish College

This is the order I would rate my suspects in. I have had Sidney on my list from the beginning and I know it is just guts, but I can't seem to shake it.[/quote]

Since the beginning, eh, and yet this is the first we hear of it? Nice.

You're all welcome to lynch me tomorrow so you can see the nice shiny Innocent next to my name. I don't know what exactly I've done to earn these suspicions, well, besides helping to lynch killers. And since no one actually brings forth any type evidence or case against me there's nothing for me to try and refute.

[House Ashford]

[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1620285' date='Dec 15 2008, 17.57']Looking at the list of players, those who have peaked my interests the most (in a negative way) are: Clare College; Corpus Christi; Griton; Gonville and Ciaus; Maggie; New Hall; Robinson; [color="#8B0000"]Sidney Sussex[/color].[/quote]


[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1622562' date='Dec 17 2008, 08.17']But they are my own ideas. I just didnt get to list them before others did.

Really, until I can dig into their posts, the order doesn't make a lot of difference...

I keep a spread sheet that I update based on "impressions" and such after reading through the posts. Those 3 and the guy with 2 names are on my suspicious list [color="#8B0000"]and I think one other person.[/color]

I have St Cathy and St John, Wolffy, Pembrrook, Lucy and maybe one other as less likely to be quilty.

I have Queenie in an "I'm not sure" place, but I checked the timing of our posts and there were less than 3 minutes from the time I switched lynches to when she posted her case on St John...there was no way she could have know I would join the Selwyn mob when she started working on her 3rd option. That makes me feel a little better about her.[/quote]


[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1623752' date='Dec 17 2008, 22.07'](other than Emmanuel) [color="#8B0000"]I have Clare, Corpus, Girton, Gonville, Robinson and Sidney on my suspicious list.[/color]

They have all made suspicious comments and for the most part are low posters. This was based on my impressions as I went though the post. I will see if any of them are case worthy tomorrow.[/quote]


[quote name='Sidney Sussex College' post='1625753' date='Dec 19 2008, 13.15']Since the beginning, eh, and yet this is the first we hear of it? Nice.[/quote]

yeah, since the beginning.

[House Baratheon]

Okay, a case on Magdalene.

[quote name='Mags']I like the way Selwyn has a negative opinion on Wolfson without actually voting for them. Since Selwyn won't do it, I will. [b]Wolfson[/b][/quote]
First post could be an attempt to shift our attention from Selwyn to Wolfson. As I've said before, Mags may have been trying to agree with the anti-Selwyn sentiment, but at the same time use it to get somebody else lynched.

[quote name='Mags']I know I've been on a bit of a hiatus, but has posting a lot become the new not posting a lot? :unsure:

In any case, I'm voting for Wolfton because I thought Selwyn's wishy-washy reaction to him was possibly indicative of being a symp or partner.[/quote]
Emm reacts poorly to the votes for Wolfson, saying that 'posting a lot' isn't a valid reason to lynch somebody. Mags defends her vote - could be distancing. Also, note that she blatantly states that she is voting for Wolfson because of his interaction with Selwyn. That supports my feeling that she might be trying to get the Selwyn mob to shift to Wolfson.

[quote name='Mags']So, of course I'd be willing to vote for Selwyn too. I'm going to scan the thread again and see if I can de-tunnel my vision in the meantime.[/quote]
She establishes that she's willing to vote for Selwyn, but doesn't do it. Could obviously be a distancing tactic.

[quote name='Mags']For fuck's sake, you can't see the sarcasm in saying you "like" someone's post because of how vocally indecisive they are about someone? Who in their right mind would like someone's post because of that? I mean, aside from someone appreciating the mastery of the noncommital statement.

Let me go through my logic again, in case it wasn't clear: Selwyn makes a statement about Wolfton which is also sort of a defense. Selwyn also says that Wolfton could be a killing killer who kills and is trying to distract us with many posts. If someone later accuses Selwyn of having a connection to Wolfton, or Wolfton is found guilty, Selwyn can later go back and say, "Oh, look, I said I thought Wolfton was possibly evil!" Or, alternatively, Selwyn can avoid voting for Wolfton by saying, "Too much text! No real evidence!" Look, I can undermine my own theories.

Obviously other people thought that was suspicious, but sometimes symps or partners are accused of purposely avoiding commenting on their master/partner, so making a noncommital statement like that early in the game is a good prop.

Selwyn and Wolfson have now cut ties. They're voting for each other. I might have to abandon my theory. But earlier, I don't think there was anything inconsistent in my two posts.

By the way, the reason I voted for Wolfton over Selwyn was that I don't like voting for people who I think are symps because the CF is thoroughly unhelpful in its results.[/quote]
People continue to give her shit for her vote, and in this post as well as a few others, she overreacts with a big defense. I think her points were clear and easy to understand, yet she's turning it into a long convoluted series of posts. Over-defensive?

[quote name='Mags']I'm not sure how you do want me to play this game, though, Queens. So far, you've shown nothing but pessimism toward nearly every approach. I realize the chances of hitting a bad guy on day 1 are only about 25%, but that's a definite nonzero possibility. I don't know why you keep shooting down the possibility of a bad guy actually doing something suspicious on day 1 and being caught by it. What's the point? huh.gif You've made your dislike of my approach to the game crystal clear, but I'm not sure what the superior approach is[/quote]
As I pointed out at the time, at this point she gets even more over-defensive. I hate the attempt to placate Queens with a 'well what the heck do you want me to do!?!'.

[quote name='Mags']I've got good vibes about Hughes Hall and New Hall.[/quote]
Seems strange for a FM to just come out and say that she thinks one of her partners looks innocent. Especially when he's not in danger of being lynched (this is on day 1 still). Might be a point in her favor.

Her next few posts are just useless fluff discussing New Hall's vote analysis. At the time, I remember thinking to myself that its strange how she's spending so much time trying to reason with him, rather than just say a few things and then ignore him. Seemed like a waste of time.

[quote name='Mags']Change my vote to [b]Selwyn[/b] as well. At this point, I don't suspect any of the others who have more than one outstanding vote (especially that Magdalene one, they seem pretty cool wink.gif) and if you've read a single thing I've written and interpreted it correctly, Selwyn is one of my main suspects.

The unfortunate second possibility is that Selwyn is someone new who I don't recognize and I can't parse their behavior. This is a very real possibility. But as Selwyn doesn't seem to have a lot of time to play, even less than I do, I don't have good faith in my ability to figure out anything else about them.[/quote]

Thats where she votes for Selwyn. It makes the vote count -
[quote name='mods']7 votes for Selwyn College (St Catherine's College, St John's College, Pembroke College, Wolfson College, Sidney Sussex College, Magdalene College)
3 votes for New Hall (King's College, Girton College, Queens' College)
2 vote for Magdalene College (, Peterhouse, Gonville and Caius College)
2 votes for Clare College (Corpus Christi College, Emmanuel College)
2 vote for Sidney Sussex College (Trinity Hall, Hughes Hall)
1 vote for Peterhouse (Lucy Cavendish College)
1 vote for Hughes Hall (Robinson College)
1 votes for Wolfson College (Selwyn College)[/quote]
I think its pretty much the exact time when I'd expect a partner to jump on the Selwyn lynch. She obviously can't vote for herself, and she hasn't ever given any credence to lynching Clare or Sidney, so either of those options would be a stretch. She defended New Hall. So it doesn't leave her many options. Either come up with a reason to go after a new target (or Clare/Sidney), or try to establish distance with Selwyn. I think at this point, it was clear that Selwyn was in a lot of danger of being lynched. Other possibilities existed, but the FM had to be worried about him. So yeah....I could definitely see this as an attempt to blend in.

Also, note that her vote includes a small defense of Selwyn. Perhaps she was hoping that others would pick up on that, and drop the case?

[quote name='Mags']Back. I will not vote for New Hall either[/quote]

At this point, the vote count has swung to 7 for New, 6 for Selwyn, and 4 for St. Johns. The opportunity is there to switch to New Hall. She refuses. People might classify this as a point in her favor. But I wouldn't be so quick to come to that conclusion. She had been defending New Hall. I've been in that situation as a FM in the past. I've watched as my partner is lynched, knowing that I could easily switch my vote from his mob to another one. Knowing that my vote is necessary to lynch him. In those situations, I've left my vote on my partner and allowed him to die.

The reality is, you just can't bail on a lynch without getting a ton of suspicion thrown your way. Especially when the main alternative is to vote for somebody who you've been defending. Its too suspicious.

[quote name='Mags']They seem approximately equal to me too, and my ranking is the same [i.e. St. Johns, Selwyn, New Hall], but I'm loath to change my vote from a larger mob to a smaller mob.[/quote]
When I ask people to rank the top 3 suspects on day 1, she agrees with Queens ranking, which actually puts St. Johns ahead of Selwyn. She says she doesn't want to change to a smaller mob, but the implication is clear that she will go over to St. Johns if other people move their votes as well.

[quote name='Mags'][b]Gonville[/b] is looking like a good choice to me.[/quote]
On day 2, her earliest vote is for Gonville. Not Emmanuel.

[quote name='Mags']Are you guys sure we can't lynch Gonville today now that Trinity is probably not an option?[/quote]
More pushing for a Gonville lynch.

[quote name='Mags']Emmanuel- I'll work on reading them, they have more posts.[/quote]
Gives her thoughts on the top suspects other than Gonville - Clare, Christi, and Emm. This is her statement about Emm...basically pushes comments off until later.

[quote name='Mags']I'd be ready to do in Emmanuel, who I never got a chance to re-read (lots of work, I've been away from a computer for the last 10 hours :() but seems like a good idea to wait until everyone says a lie-detectable thing.[/quote]
A bunch of stuff happens while Mags is gone, including Queens reveal and accusation toward Emm. Mags still hasn't re-read Emm, but volunteers to do so (again).

She never does a re-read on Emm. She actually disappears, and doesn't come back until the vig reveals. At which point, she complains about low posters being vig targets, and asks to be investigated instead of killed. Obviously, the FM know at that point that they are targeting Queen...so once again, being investigated is less dangerous than it would otherwise normally be (there's a chance Queen will die and not be around to reveal his results.

[u]Summary[/u]

1) Tries to shift momentum against Selwyn onto Wolfson instead.

2) Says Selwyn is a suspect and that she'll vote for him. But doesn't actually do it until it looks like he's in a lot of danger.

3) Even when she votes Selwyn, she throws a subtle defense of him in there. And she also later indicates that she might be willing to switch to St. John, if that mob grows a bit larger.

4) Is very over-defensive. There are times when I'm willing to dismiss that as not being suspicious. But in this case, I do think she went above and beyond what I'd expect from an innocent. Both in her argument with Queens on day 1, and also in her "don't vig kill me rant".

5) Goes after Gonville for most of the rest of the game, rather than Emm or Hughes. This point could go either way, depending on whether you think she'd opt for distance or for attempting to get an innocent lynched.

Conclusion - Yeah, she's suspicious.

[House Baratheon]

[quote name='Sidney Sussex College' post='1625753' date='Dec 19 2008, 13.15']And since no one actually brings forth any type evidence or case against me there's nothing for me to try and refute.[/quote]

You're next on my list of cases. Not exactly sure when I'll have time to write it though. Will probably be taking a break for lunch soon. Plus, I should get some real work done today. :P

[House Corbray]

Dude, wtf just happened?? A whole day passed while I was asleep? Is it just me or is there no point to making a role list if you're going to leave roles off it?

In all honesty, I'd probably lynch me today too for my terrible judgement re: Hughes (IIRC I said I thought he was probably innocent on day 1, after recognizing his alt and New Hall's, I always think those two are crazy but innocent :bang:), although I'd still rather lynch Gonville. (Broken record time.)

I'll try to make a real case on Gonville, although I'll say in advance that most of my case against him has always been speculation as to where the killers would vote on day 1, as well as general gut feeling that he's evil and keeps slipping out of our grasp because of more suspicious suspects.

[House Baratheon]

[quote name='Magdalene College' post='1625817' date='Dec 19 2008, 14.01']I'll try to make a real case on Gonville, although I'll say in advance that most of my case against him has always been speculation as to where the killers would vote on day 1, as well as general gut feeling that he's evil and keeps slipping out of our grasp because of more suspicious suspects.[/quote]

Where exactly do you think the killers would have voted on day 1?

[House Targaryen]

Having lynched another killer you all sleep well, a deep sleep that those who have done a job well.

You wake up feeling refreshed and ready to face anything life can throw your way.

However you smell a putrid smell, and see splashes of red all over the room.

SPOILER: Ohs Noes

Someone farted and spilt some ketchup

SPOILER: Huh?

You count the number of people and you're all still there

It is now day

[House Corbray]

[quote name='Pembroke College' post='1625820' date='Dec 19 2008, 12.03']Where exactly do you think the killers would have voted on day 1?[/quote]


[quote name='Proctors' Office' post='1621588' date='Dec 16 2008, 13.23']It is day 1.

20 players remain: Clare College, Corpus Christi College, Emmanuel College, Girton College, Gonville and Caius College, Hughes Hall, King's College, Lucy Cavendish College, Magdalene College, New Hall, Pembroke College, Peterhouse, Queens' College, Robinson College, Selwyn College, Sidney Sussex College, St Catherine's College, St. John's College, Trinity Hall, Wolfson College.

11 votes are needed for a conviction or 10 to go to night.

7 votes for Selwyn College (St Catherine's College, [color="#00FF00"]St. John's College[/color], Pembroke College, Wolfson College, Sidney Sussex College, Magdalene College, [color="#00FF00"]Peterhouse[/color])
6 votes for New Hall ([color="#FFA500"]King's College[/color], Girton College, Trinity Hall, [color="#FF0000"]Hughes Hall[/color], , Clare College, Corpus Christi College)
4 votes for St. John's College ([color="#00FF00"]Queens' College[/color], Gonville and Caius College, [color="#00FF00"]Lucy Cavendish College, New Hall[/color])
1 vote for Clare College ([color="#FF0000"]Emmanuel College[/color])
1 vote for Hughes Hall (Robinson College)
1 vote for Wolfson College ([color="#FF0000"]Selwyn College[/color])


ETA: 1.5 hours left

edit Updated for Peterhouses vote change[/quote]


[quote name='Proctors' Office' post='1621615' date='Dec 16 2008, 13.37']It is day 1.

20 players remain: Clare College, Corpus Christi College, Emmanuel College, Girton College, Gonville and Caius College, Hughes Hall, King's College, Lucy Cavendish College, Magdalene College, New Hall, Pembroke College, Peterhouse, Queens' College, Robinson College, Selwyn College, Sidney Sussex College, St Catherine's College, St. John's College, Trinity Hall, Wolfson College.

11 votes are needed for a conviction or 10 to go to night.

10 votes for Selwyn College ([color="#00FF00"]Queens' College, [/color]St Catherine's College, [color="#00FF00"]St. John's College[/color], Pembroke College, Wolfson College, Sidney Sussex College, Magdalene College, [color="#00FF00"]Peterhouse, [/color][color="#00FF00"]Lucy Cavendish College, Trinity Hall[/color])
5 votes for New Hall ([color="#FF8C00"]King's College[/color], Girton College, , [color="#FF0000"]Hughes Hall[/color], Clare College, Corpus Christi College)
2 votes for St. John's College (Gonville and Caius College, [color="#00FF00"]New Hall[/color])
1 vote for Clare College ([color="#FF0000"]Emmanuel College[/color])
1 vote for Hughes Hall (Robinson College)
1 vote for Wolfson College ([color="#FF0000"]Selwyn College[/color])[/quote]

Red is known evil, green is CI, and orange is probable symp. (Will have to go edit that, I'm pretty sure I've colored in at least one name wrong on those lists.) [ETA: Colors look right, but do note that even though I consider Pembroke and all the dead people who turned out innocent as CI, I suppose there's still a slight chance that one of them was a symp. :dunno:)

You have Emmanuel and Selwyn hanging out on their own lynch mobs, and Hughes (and Kings?) voting for New Hall. Since the swing from New Hall to Selwyn happened pretty quickly, and killers generally don't [i]try[/i] to kill one of their own on day 1--the distancing really isn't worth the loss of one's own, imho--then there are only so many places another killer could have placed a vote.

You don't want to have too many killers voting on their own. That's why I don't think it's Robinson. You do want to push alternative lynch mobs, but possibly not New Hall, as New Hall had active, vocal defenders such as Queens and Lucy. Queens and Lucy were also making that 11th-hour push for St. John being an equivalent lynch to Selwyn. I have to say, the logic for that was pretty good...St. John and Selwyn had pretty similar logic going against both of them on day 1. We know Queens, Lucy, and New Hall are innocent, so that leaves only one person left who was on the St. John mob who could be evil--Gonville.

I really believe that the St. John lynch was the lifesaver that at least one of the FM would have reached out for as an alternative to lynching Selwyn, and with that in mind, only one person fits the description, Gonville.

(Btw, Gonville, asking you to "own your vote" was meant to say--actually defend your vote for St. John on Day 1. At the time when I asked you to do that, St. John was still a reasonable Day 2 option, his friend hadn't revealed yet and his beahvior was weird. Yet you seemed to not even consider the fact that he might be guilty, which I thought was just strange.)

[House Dayne]

Poor FM, can't even kill Pembroke properly :(

[House Ashford]

[quote name='Lucy Cavendish College' post='1625859' date='Dec 19 2008, 14.37']Poor FM, can't even kill Pembroke properly :([/quote]


:lol:

So let's get this last bastard today!

[House Corbray]

[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1625860' date='Dec 19 2008, 12.40']:lol:

So let's get this last bastard today![/quote]

Ok. [b]Gonville[/b]. :pirate:

[House Targaryen]

[quote]I believe the last killer is more likely to be Gonville or Clare, though I concede it could be Wolfson or Magdalene. I'm still not sure who I'll put my vote on. The only thing looking good for Clare at the moment is that King's does seem to have been the symp - why else would Queen's have been killed in the same manner as St. Cath? You'd think the two deaths would have been separated instead of done in the same manner.[/quote]

There are no clues in the night scean.

They where all lump together so you wouldn't know who killed who. (from the mod post)

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1625860' date='Dec 19 2008, 15.40']:lol:

So let's get this last bastard today![/quote]


Atm, I'm leaning towards [b]Clare[/b]. Same reasoning as before.

[House Ashford]

Clare, what other role do you have that you will lose if you become a vig?

[House Baratheon]

[quote name='Peterhouse' post='1625947' date='Dec 19 2008, 15.45']Clare, what other role do you have that you will lose if you become a vig?[/quote]

Clare isn't going to answer that. Trust me, its not something you want revealed.

ETA - I saw it when he posted it last night, and told him to edit it out.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Pembroke College' post='1625950' date='Dec 19 2008, 16.48']Clare isn't going to answer that. Trust me, its not something you want revealed.

ETA - I saw it when he posted it last night, and told him to edit it out.[/quote]


Do you know?

If I know, then it might clear my suspicion of her and move it to Sidney or Gonville or Mags.

[House Dayne]

[quote name='Wolfson College' post='1625952' date='Dec 19 2008, 21.50']Do you know?

If I know, then it might clear my suspicion of her and move it to Sidney or Gonville or Mags.[/quote]

Take his word for it as an innocent. You don't need to know. Focus elsewhere.

[House Baratheon]

[quote name='Wolfson College' post='1625952' date='Dec 19 2008, 15.50']Do you know?

If I know, then it might clear my suspicion of her and move it to Sidney or Gonville or Mags.[/quote]

Yes, I know the 2nd role he claimed to have.

I guess it might be worth revealing it, because there is some discussion we could have about it. Hmm. I'll have to think about it.

[House Stokeworth]

[quote name='Lucy Cavendish College' post='1625956' date='Dec 19 2008, 16.52']Take his word for it as an innocent. You don't need to know. Focus elsewhere.[/quote]


She is innocent, then? Are you at least 90% certain?