GoT Mafia Game 70.5 - Jingle Hell

[House Dondarrion]

True - Santa may be able to give gifts to himself. Sorry Sleepy, not cleared yet:p

What we don't know about the gifts ... almost everything. We don't know what they do, we don't know if they can be used the same night (although I'd assume you'd be informed of a gift at the end of the night to be used at any time after - we don't know this however.

We don't know what the apple does - we just have Sleepy's word for it when and if he decides to tell us. Since we have no idea what the gifts do, or what kind of restrictions are on them, we can't know if it is a good idea to share this information or not.

Ah poo. I need to read through all the rules carefully.

I'm not sure if I made this plain before, but I will explain the apple once doing so is no longer detrimental to the innocents. I've pretty much already said this, but just to make it plain: The PM associated with the gift arrived shortly after the morning scene was posted, and I'm pretty sure that the gift can be used any time thereafter (within the limitations attached to it). I will also say that the poison apple will not kill me.

Whoever it was that mentioned it earlier, I was also a little surprised by the public nature of the gift.

[House Dondarrion]

Feel free not to answer this if you think this would give away information to the FM, but is there any way to cure the poison, Sleepy?

I'll say this, and I think it will be my last comment on the subject of exactly what the apple does until I'm ready to explain it plainly: There is no action anyone can take to prevent the apple from doing what it does. I'll also reiterate that it doesn't kill me.

Also, does the symp have any idea of whether his gift will be a good, neutral, or bad one? Obviously, that affects whether we assume Sleepy was targeted for his innocent charm or his black elvish heart.

I have no more knowledge than anyone else as to what the symp knows about his gifts. I assumed that he knew what the gift did when he chose his target, but I suppose that it's possible he chooses the target without knowing exactly what gift he's sending, or at least what it does.

[House Baratheon]

Also, does the symp have any idea of whether his gift will be a good, neutral, or bad one?

Obviously he does, otherwise it would be a lottery.

Having random effects in a mafia game is just plainly wrong.

[House Dayne]

Oompah - I know I've been annoying. Like I said - echo chamber with me ramping it up a notch after each exchange with Sleepy. I was full of righteous indignation and no one was here to slap me down. Done with that now.

Having said that, I do think Sleepy is still suspicious, but not nearly at the level I had him before. I really don't know what to make of the apple, so it's hard to evaluate him until we have a little more info on that.

I do like Happy. I didn't before, but it was mostly because it was so evident to him that Sleepy was innocent that it didn't need explaining. I obviously disagreed. He does make good points though, and when he explains himself, I get where he's coming from.

Grumpy I had a good impression of, but I'd have to go over him again. I thought he was doing a good job of trying to figure out what was going on, questioning etc. I also thought Mini was genuinely trying to work it out, but I'd still like more to go on.

Durin I still have good feelings on. I do buy his explanation of his contradiction, so I am not bothered by that.

I didn't like Smurf for his lack of original contribution. That's moot, but there it is. I'd have to read Dopey, but he seems to be going down that path too.

Bashful ... um, well. Still am on the fence. His confusion about Gimli/Tyrion is troubling, but not a smoking gun. He has a wishy-wash post, but then he makes some posts I really like. It's a wash right now and he probably deserves a re-read.

Oompah I think I like. Sneezy and Doc I have no clue on.

Tyrion ... oh Tyrion. His review post was not good at all. I now concede that his actions could be sympish, and possibly FMish. If he was a symp, the reasons for calling out Gimli would be to either get him lynched as a safe target, or to signal to his FM that Gimli wasn't actually the symp, so keep looking. If he was a symp looking for a safe target, how could he know that the 'slip' wasn't made by one of his FM? He knows it was not a signal, most likely it was innocent RP. That can catch out FM and innocents, so voting for Gimli based on that was a pretty bold move early on when he can't know who his masters are. If he is the symp and wants Gimli lynched so he flips innocent (therefore Santa is still alive, FM - keep looking) - well, this is a more sophisticated move, a move that doesn't seem to be consistent with the rest of his gameplay.

I do want to say at his point that Sleepy was more suspicious of Tyrion initially because he actually believed he caught Santa. The later arguments about possible FM/symp behavior that Happy and Oompah emphasize was not why Sleepy and others thought him suspicious. (I don't have quotes in front of me to back this, but I'm pretty sure about it) I thought that was an easy point to make on an easy target.

Overall, based on two main facts (Gimli vote and review post) I'd say it's a wash, leaning innocent. He really hasn't done anything of note besides those things.

[House Dayne]

Obviously he does, otherwise it would be a lottery.

Having random effects in a mafia game is just plainly wrong.

And mods would never do anything that would unbalance or destabilize a game, right? Maybe they don't mean to, but *coughfmcan'tbuypowerscough* it happens.

[House Dayne]

By the way, I do feel that Sleepy receiving the gift is a point against him being the symp. If he were Santa, he'd know he could gift himself, and would except others to have read that part of the rules (or check back, as we have done) so wouldn't have made a point of rubbing it in our faces.

[House Baratheon]

And mods would never do anything that would unbalance or destabilize a game, right? Maybe they don't mean to, but *coughfmcan'tbuypowerscough* it happens.

Mods do mistakes, but not that evident ones.

So, now you don't have a suspect you strongly want to lynch?

[House Dayne]

I've got my vote on Sleepy, so I'd say yes.

I briefly thought about putting it on Bashful, but I keep see-sawing back and forth on him. I can see the points others make against him, but then he will come back on thread and say something that makes me feel all better about him. It's some form of advanced mind control I think. I have my eye on him, but I can't seem to keep it focused there.

My second preference right now would be Dopey. Mostly for non contribution. Point in his favor is that he was the first to bring attention to Tyrion's wishy-washy review post. He only focused on the review of Sleepy, and it didn't really have any bite, so it's not a large point. He doesn't like my explanation for defending Durin. I know that's pretty OMGUS, but it's such a small point to latch onto and vote on that it bothers me (easy target, parroting others - specifically dearly departed Smurf). I think it's cause he put a vote behind it - he didn't do the same for Tyrion yesterday. I've not done a full re-read on Dopey, but I don't remember him having prior suspicion on me.

[House Redfort]

By the way, I do feel that Sleepy receiving the gift is a point against him being the symp. If he were Santa, he'd know he could gift himself, and would except others to have read that part of the rules (or check back, as we have done) so wouldn't have made a point of rubbing it in our faces.

I agree with this, I don't think he would gift himself. What it does show is that sypaclause will most likely be found amongst his supporters. Whoever the symp is, he clearly thinks that Sleeppy is his FM if he knew what he was gifting, as it appears to be an item that will not harm Sleeppy. I don't have a great deal of time today or tomorrow but I'll be around when I can and that's where I'll be looking.

[House Baratheon]

I still prefer lynching Durin or Tyrion. I suppose none of them posted after I've left yesterday, so no reason to change my mind. I strongly hope at least one of them is guilty.

I was surprized to see that Bashful is one of top posters, I remember very few things he said. I'd like to reread him, but have no time yet.

Dopey made more posts than Doc but looks worse, yes. If we will need a compromise, I'd agree on him, but it's too early to think about this.

[House Dayne]

I agree with this, I don't think he would gift himself. What it does show is that sypaclause will most likely be found amongst his supporters. Whoever the symp is, he clearly thinks that Sleeppy is his FM if he knew what he was gifting, as it appears to be an item that will not harm Sleeppy.

I don't think it 'clearly' shows the symp thinks Sleepy is his FM. We don't know if Santa knew the gifts would be public. We were surprised, he may or may not have been. If he knew it was public, this may be a large misdirection. Even if the symp thinks Sleepy is the FM and the apple would be private, that holds little real weight as he has no clue who the FM are any more than we do.

I still prefer lynching Durin or Tyrion. I suppose none of them posted after I've left yesterday, so no reason to change my mind. I strongly hope at least one of them is guilty.

I was going to say I'd have less problems lynching Tyrion based only on his posts and taking the defense etc, out of it ... but really, these two have very few freestanding posts that don't relate directly to the accusation or the aftermath. I would like to see more general content from both of them.

[House Tully]

What did you mean by this?

For me Smurf has been a potential symp. He managed to stay out of the spotlight and he didn't make to many enemies. Killing a potential symp makes me think that the FM decided not to spent too many thoughts about their secret helper. My bets for the nightkill were Grumpy and Sleepy btw. Grumpy for being the most reasonable dwarf so far, Sleepy for enganging into a discussion with almost everyone whi adressed him.

The only point that speaks for killing First Sword is that he was not very lynchable. And most likely he had no connections to the FM.

[House Redfort]

I still prefer lynching Durin or Tyrion. I suppose none of them posted after I've left yesterday, so no reason to change my mind. I strongly hope at least one of them is guilty.

I was surprized to see that Bashful is one of top posters, I remember very few things he said. I'd like to reread him, but have no time yet.

Dopey made more posts than Doc but looks worse, yes. If we will need a compromise, I'd agree on him, but it's too early to think about this.

Awkwardly, there's apost of mine right above this one ;)

I think I've been a little obsessive about Sleeppy, and as a result have missed things about Tyrion that should have stood out.

Notable to me is his lack of input about Gimli one way or another, despite the fact that what followed all stemmed from his initial accusation. I was focused on Sleepy and talking about what Tyrion had done, without paying attention to what he was(or wasn't) currently doing. I need to have a proper look at him before I can decide what to make of this but it is odd.

I think we're getting valuable input from Oompah, Alberich and Sleeppy atm. I know that I haven't been Sleeppy's greatest admirer, and I'm still uncertain. We can learn more about his motivation when he put's his apple to use. He has looked better to me as time has gone on. I don't think he should be lynched atm, and no, its not because I'm scared of his apple.

I still think the symp must think Sleeppy is FM, but I could be mistaken.

I agree that I have made myself look suspicious and I'm slightly paranoid about people who are supportive of me because of it.

I think Bashful is of concern, he seems to be actively seeking/offering 'cookies' to various people in a way that suggests he may be feeling out potential allies. His viewpoint quickly changes when it becomes apparent that he's receiving nothing back. He's probably my main suspect atm.

Grumpy has been very active and has questioned numerous different people. I can't decide whether this is because he's genuine or because he doesn't want to commit to anyone and kill an ally. I know that his post about being a symp had point, but it still makes me uncomfortable.

Mini is agressive in a way that feels innocent as is Happy, who would otherwise be my ideal picture of a Sleeppy loving symp.

I'm not sure about Doc and Dopey.

I haven't done a proper reread so these are just my thoughts atm and I don't have time for anything else cause it's Xmas eve and I'm pretty busy tonight and tomorrow. I'll explore Bashful further, and look into Tyrion, which I should have done earlier, but I won't have much time from now till tomorrow night. I'll be around when I can though.

[House Tully]

Let's say the symp knows the power of his present. Apparently it's some kind of vig power. If that's the case, I have a hard time to beleive that the symp can give the present to himself. However, if he only knows that the gift is an apple and nothing else, it's possible that he might keep it for himself.

That said I repeat that I don't beleive that Sleepy is a symp. FM - yes, symp - no.

[House Tully]

I see no reason to abandon my suspicions on Durin. It didn't help that he disappeared when we reached day's endgame (as did some others).

Then there is this here:

I think Bashful is of concern, he seems to be actively seeking/offering 'cookies' to various people in a way that suggests he may be feeling out potential allies. His viewpoint quickly changes when it becomes apparent that he's receiving nothing back. He's probably my main suspect atm.

Says the dwarf who tried to appease everyone not with his axe, but with friendly words. Being agreeable and backing down has been his strategy when he was under fire.

Vote Durin

[House Clegane]

So there's no one else around who wants to comment on either Smurf's death or me getting the gift? I hope this at least satisfies folk that I'm not the Sympaclause

This post strikes me wrong. Maybe it's just me, but if i'm innocent, i don't tend to think about how the night kill (or whatever night actions) reflects on my suspiciousness.

Exactly. And, sincerely, if I was a killer, I'd be so pissed by nesessity to react to that clue that I'd lynch the offender on principle, be him my symp or not. Who needs a symp who hurts you instead of helping?

To be honest (though let me declare my vested interest) I don't see it as credible that an FM team would deliberately seek to get someone who is potentially their symp lynched. I just don't buy it.

You have divided the field into Team Durin and Team Sleeppy and made an assumption that all (or almost all?) evils are in one team. If you were right, would they kill members of their own team, therefore reducing suspect pool? Obvious night kill would be you.

Would they think about this though? I very much doubt it.

[House Dayne]

I went back to the beginning to see where the seeds of my distrust of Sleepy came from and still can't shake the feeling that he is scummy.

Tyrion accuses Gimli. Gimli 'confesses' and then Tyrion votes for him.

Sleepy questions whether Tyrion is serious or not and then makes a post about being suspicousof people forming opinions so early. Sleepy has addressed this point in detail - I don't want to go over it again. Either you buy into Sleepy's explanation or not. I don't like it, it hits me on a gut-level.

Tyrion commented on it, as did Mini. Tyrion's post was a bit irritated, and Mini's was more incredulous.

Sleepy responds to Tyrion in detail. It's at this time that Durin pipes up and offers tentative support for Tyrion. He leaves himself open to suspecting Tyrion, but mainly agrees with him looking for symp clues.

Sleepy is still trying to figure out if a symp would signal his master. Note that he is thinking about Gimli and if a symp would do something like that rather than Tyrion and his actions.

Durin believes it is more important in this game for the symp to find his masters. I have no objection to either line of thinking at this point, I can see a valid point being made for both actions - signaling vs not signaling.

The next post by Sleepy is where he loses me. He talks about the symp signaling the FM and why he might or might not do so.

Find his masters, yes, but signalling only lets his masters know who their symp is, for the symp to learn anything from it the masters would have to signal back and any signal a symp can decipher we can too. I very briefly considered the possibility that the FM might signal the symp so he'd know where to send the presents, but discarded the idea. I can't believe that the FM would take that risk.

To return to the game, I'm bothered now that Tyrion seems to have done a runner as soon as attention started to turn toward him. I think he's done more than enough to deserve a vote.

Tyrion

At the very end, he tacks on a vote for Tyrion for doing 'more than enough' to earn a vote. I don't exactly understand what he has done to garner suspicion from Sleepy so far. I also dislike tagging on the 'Tyrion's done a runner' argument because it had been roughly a half hour since Tyrion posted last. I don't think that is long enough to seriously make that kind of accusation - I think it was a cheap shot and easy point.

A little more conversation and then Durin asks Sleepy -

Other than making the first serious post(and I don't think his point was unbelievably ridiculous), what else has he done?

His point was that he thought the symp had confessed because he was invincible. I consider that unbelievably ridiculous, though not necessarily a sign of evil. His then made a massive stretch in his accusation against me and disappeared when people started accusing him of thinking oddly.

It's not airtight, but I'm happy with the vote for now.

So Sleepy is saying that the vote against Tyrion is really not his unbelievably ridiculous belief in the confession (because that is not necessarily a sign of evil) But rather Tyrion's massive stretch in accusing Sleepy and him running away. I've addressed the runner part, and I didn't see any accusation from Tyrion other than a comment (snide as it was) on Sleepy's post about finding people with opinions based in RP suspicious. I don't consider it an accusation, nor do I find it to be massively stretching a point.

(talking about Tyrion)

If you really believe that that's what he thought then you must think he's innocent, so why are you trying to lynch him? I don't like it.

That's fine, you are entitled to dislike it all you like. Obviously there's no reason to think that either a symp or an FM would actually believe what they say they believe, and even if Tyrion was telling the truth that means he isn't a symp, but an FM could as easily make the same mistake, but the point is that it was a really really strange thing to believe. I'm not sure I like the way you've been shielding Tyrion, but I'm happy with my vote for the time being.

Sleepy's point is that he thinks it's a really really strange thing to believe. I don't like how he plays the wounded innocent card so much (a little at the beginning, more later on) I am not following Sleepy's logic at all up to now. Notice this is where he starts to deflect onto Durin. At this point, Durin hasn't made many posts, and most of them have been trying to clarify points - mainly made by Sleepy - and asking questions. Durin's next post is the one in which he votes for Sleepy and the lines are drawn.

Someone please point out to me how Sleepy comes out of this looking so good. I am able to follow Durin's logic much more clearly than Sleepy's. Mini comments on the same post that Tyrion gets accused of making a massive stretch on, but Mini gets an apology and a laugh. What am I missing?

[Lady Gaga]

My second preference right now would be Dopey. Mostly for non contribution. Point in his favor is that he was the first to bring attention to Tyrion's wishy-washy review post. He only focused on the review of Sleepy, and it didn't really have any bite, so it's not a large point. He doesn't like my explanation for defending Durin. I know that's pretty OMGUS, but it's such a small point to latch onto and vote on that it bothers me (easy target, parroting others - specifically dearly departed Smurf). I think it's cause he put a vote behind it - he didn't do the same for Tyrion yesterday. I've not done a full re-read on Dopey, but I don't remember him having prior suspicion on me.

I explained that I had a tight schedule still was pretty sure I would be back before the lynch time thats why I didnt put a vote then and mentioned I will be waiting for Tyrion to answer my questions that means I was positive back then that I would be back, but stuff happened in RL so I couldnt make it before the lynch,naturally learning my lesson I put a vote on you this time.

No I didnt have any prior suspicion on you since the whole day 1 was spinning around Gimli/Durin/Tyrion/Sleepy, the same reason that you have me on your second preference since you have been suspecting sleepy forever now.

[House Redfort]

I see no reason to abandon my suspicions on Durin. It didn't help that he disappeared when we reached day's endgame (as did some others).

Then there is this here:

Says the dwarf who tried to appease everyone not with his axe, but with friendly words. Being agreeable and backing down has been his strategy when he was under fire.

Vote Durin

I was asleep, and I did miss days end, but it came down to me or Gimli, as I thought it would and I'd already placed my vote on him and explained myself, I didn't need to be there although I did intend to be.

Your argument suggesting that I become agreeable and back down is completely off and looks like a poor excuse for voting someone you have decided isn't playing for your team as you may first have thought. I've copped a lot of flack for not backing down with Sleeppy and my behaviour towards him has been far from agreeable. I was nearly lynched yesterday because I didn't back down. I didn't back away from my suspicions of you either, I said I would overlook them for yesterday, because Gimli was the better option.

You will now claim that I am backing away from my dispute with Sleeppy today. I am far from giving him the all clear, but I feel the need to reread him with a fresh eye because I had a bad feeling about him from day one, and I'm worried that it may have clouded my judgement. He's still on my list, but you are number one.

[House Dayne]

For me Smurf has been a potential symp. He managed to stay out of the spotlight and he didn't make to many enemies. Killing a potential symp makes me think that the FM decided not to spent too many thoughts about their secret helper. My bets for the nightkill were Grumpy and Sleepy btw. Grumpy for being the most reasonable dwarf so far, Sleepy for enganging into a discussion with almost everyone whi adressed him.

The only point that speaks for killing First Sword is that he was not very lynchable. And most likely he had no connections to the FM.

If by not making many enemies, you mean he picked a side and followed in Sleepy's wake, then ok - he made no enemies. Staying out of the spotlight, I will give you, but he picked a side and stuck to it. I don't think you can seriously say he most likely had no connections to the FM. (any more or less than most players anyway)

What about Dopey? He stayed out of the spotlight and he didn't make any enemies. Same for Sneezy (although I can understand giving him a pass for day 1 as I have done the same). I don't recall Doc making many enemies or basking in the spotlight. Mini? Oompah? There have been some very vocal players hogging the spotlight and leaving many others uniluminated. Is there any other reason you single out Smurf as being a non-likely possible symp?