GoT Mafia Game 70.5 - Jingle Hell

[House Dondarrion]

I said they are doing it for a reason and right now I can't separate the evils from the innocents. Does this not imply that I think some people's reason might be *gasp* innocent reasons?

Alright, I think I get what you're saying. However there are no good innocent reasons for distracting the thread and precious few for defending someone in the way your argument implies.

ETA: I want to add to this that I was neither trying to defend nor distract with my accusation of Tyrion. An indirect defense of Gimli may have resulted, but it had nothing to do with my decision to go after Tyrion.

[House Dayne]

I got a PM explaining it, but I'm not going to reveal the details yet as there would be less advantage to the innocents if they were generally known. I will say that I was right and it is a poisoned apple (I hadn't received the PM when I made that comment), and I want to thank the Sympaclause for his faith in my innocence. :(

Then I am assuming I get to bite the poisoned apple tonight. I almost welcome it.

[House Dayne]

Alright, I think I get what you're saying. However there are no good innocent reasons for distracting the thread and precious few for defending someone in the way your argument implies.

You're beating a dead horse and you know it. You can't leave it at ... allright, I see what you're saying but it was worded poorly. You still are trying to paint me with a scummy brush.

You fill your posts with passive-aggressive nit-picks and snarky jabs that you're getting my blood worked up. That and the simple fact that I do not get you at all. I just don't. You might as well be speaking in Portuguese.

[House Dayne]

ETA: I want to add to this that I was neither trying to defend nor distract with my accusation of Tyrion. An indirect defense of Gimli may have resulted, but it had nothing to do with my decision to go after Tyrion.

I get this. I get why people might latch onto Tyrion as a suspect (still baffled by it, but I get it) You telling us that this is not - really it's not - a defense of Tyrion doesn't make it true.

I feel like I need to start over with you so I don't let this get out of hand (ala Greyjoy v Arryn). I am being honest here, it's not snark.

Can you see why people find Gimli's remark a very possible symp clue? You don't have to agree, but can you see the merit in the case?

[House Dondarrion]

I get this. I get why people might latch onto Tyrion as a suspect (still baffled by it, but I get it) You telling us that this is not - really it's not - a defense of Tyrion doesn't make it true.

I feel like I need to start over with you so I don't let this get out of hand (ala Greyjoy v Arryn). I am being honest here, it's not snark.

Can you see why people find Gimli's remark a very possible symp clue? You don't have to agree, but can you see the merit in the case?

Alright, in the interests of bridging a gap here, let's take a breath.

Yes, I can see how people might see a symp clue in what Gimli said if they were looking for that kind of thing.

And in the interests of clarity, I'm not nit picking. Your post genuinely read (to me) as saying that if someone couldn't see your point then they had an ulterior motive. That's not what you meant, fair enough, but I was not picking nits, just arguing the argument I was seeing.

[House Dayne]

So Gimli just laid down a symp clue. How do people react. I think that the FM are likely to proceed with caution. They may want to ignore it, but I don't think they realistically can. Tyrion calling attention to it and voting for Gimli - a possible symp with presents - is not something an FM is likely to do. Can you see where I am coming from?

I get that you don't like RP clues and would ignore any you thought you might have seen. Do you think that most people are likely to blithely ignore them, or do you think it's probable that the FM would have to at least proceed with caution.

[House Baratheon]

You would have ignored it. Not everyone would. I agree that as an FM, I don't look for symp clues as actions speak much louder than any words. However - it was highlighted in big bold letters. There is little chance that FM could ignore it completely.

Exactly. And, sincerely, if I was a killer, I'd be so pissed by nesessity to react to that clue that I'd lynch the offender on principle, be him my symp or not. Who needs a symp who hurts you instead of helping?

That's why I can easily see Tyrion as a killer. Though, I won't repeat you mistake and won't pretend I can predict scum's reactions precisely.

In fact, Alberich, you are doing exactly same thing you accuse us of: taking one small thing and growing it up to elphant size instead of looking at the day in integrity. You may look at Tyrion's attack on Gimli as some argument in his favor, if you see things this way, but you shouldn't give him totally free pass because of such a small detail.

At least, now you should see that night kill of Smurf and poisoning Sleeppy dig a grand hole in your theories.

[House Dayne]

btw - still have no real handle on Doc, Dopey or Bashful. Oopma and Mini a little moreso, but not by much. Would like to hear some more thoughts from each of them.

[House Dondarrion]

So Gimli just laid down a symp clue. How do people react. I think that the FM are likely to proceed with caution. They may want to ignore it, but I don't think they realistically can. Tyrion calling attention to it and voting for Gimli - a possible symp with presents - is not something an FM is likely to do. Can you see where I am coming from?

I get that you don't like RP clues and would ignore any you thought you might have seen. Do you think that most people are likely to blithely ignore them, or do you think it's probable that the FM would have to at least proceed with caution.

I understand the argument I just disagree with it. Obviously, after all the debate yesterday I have to conclude that there are people who would not ignore RP clues. If this game is any indication then I think it's roughly an even split. So there's an even chance that Tyrion took the symp clue seriously (in which case your argument holds some water), or that he believed it didn't mean much (in which case he could be an opportunistic FM).

But say even that it does decrease the chance he's an FM. No one said he was definitely an FM (I don't think, I'd have to check to be sure), we just said he was suspicious. So tell me this, what does a symp do if he spots someone else leaving a possible symp clue?

[House Dayne]

Exactly. And, sincerely, if I was a killer, I'd be so pissed by nesessity to react to that clue that I'd lynch the offender on principle, be him my symp or not. Who needs a symp who hurts you instead of helping?

That's why I can easily see Tyrion as a killer. Though, I won't repeat you mistake and won't pretend I can predict scum's reactions precisely.

Actually, this is a point I can see.

In fact, Alberich, you are doing exactly same thing you accuse us of: taking one small thing and growing it up to elphant size instead of looking at the day in integrity. You may look at Tyrion's attack on Gimli as some argument in his favor, if you see things this way, but you shouldn't give him totally free pass because of such a small detail.

At least, now you should see that night kill of Smurf and poisoning Sleeppy dig a grand hole in your theories.

I know, I have been tunnel-visioned. I've been mostly speaking to myself ... or Sleepy, so in essence in an echo chamber where every point I make gets magnified in my mind. I need someone to talk me down occasionally.

Why does Smurf's death and Sleepy's gift dig holes in my theories?

[House Dondarrion]

btw - still have no real handle on Doc, Dopey or Bashful. Oopma and Mini a little moreso, but not by much. Would like to hear some more thoughts from each of them.

This we can agree on completely. (well, mostly, I feel I have a bit more of a handle on Oompah, but that may only be because I agree with him so much). I'd also throw Sneezy into the first category and Happy into the second, if not the first as well.

ETA: Even Tyrion I'd like to hear more from, though he's clearly not in the same position as these others.

[House Dayne]

But say even that it does decrease the chance he's an FM. No one said he was definitely an FM (I don't think, I'd have to check to be sure), we just said he was suspicious. So tell me this, what does a symp do if he spots someone else leaving a possible symp clue?

I addressed that earlier. I'd think he'd want to get he fake symp lynched so the FM don't think that they might have found him. I think it's a safe lynch target as he figures it gives him focus and it's probably not his master. I give Tyrion a higher chance to be a symp over a FM. I don't rule out the chance he's scum, just don't find it very likely - but I'm keeping an open mind Happy ;)

[House Dayne]

This we can agree on completely. (well, mostly, I feel I have a bit more of a handle on Oompah, but that may only be because I agree with him so much). I'd also throw Sneezy into the first category and Happy into the second, if not the first as well.

ETA: Even Tyrion I'd like to hear more from, though he's clearly not in the same position as these others.

OMG - we DO agree completely. I would add those as well. Is this the sign of the apocalypse?

[House Baratheon]

Why does Smurf's death and Sleepy's gift dig holes in my theories?

You have divided the field into Team Durin and Team Sleeppy and made an assumption that all (or almost all?) evils are in one team. If you were right, would they kill members of their own team, therefore reducing suspect pool? Obvious night kill would be you.

[House Dayne]

Another interpretation of the Smurf kill would be that they were killing off their opposition - taking the direct route. Uh yeah ... edited for stupidity.

Sleepy being given the apple - although I didn't think about it at the time - means that the symp thinks Sleepy is the FM, or at least wants us to think that.

To be honest, I wasn't expecting the presents to be public. I figured it would be a PM that they could reveal or not as they saw fit. In fact, making the gifts public kind of makes Santa even more difficult to play than I thought he was.

[House Tully]

Don't have the time to reread all the stuff that happened on a proper way. I'm more than a bit surprised that the Smurf is dead. Apparently the FM decided no to spend too much thoughts about their symp.

Sleepy - I think that Santa is potentially able to send himself secrets. Hence you technically still could be the symp. However, your yesterday's behaviour doesn't fit with what I expect a symp to do, so you're near the bottom of my symp list. A poisoned apple is not the gift that we all hoped for. Hopefully someone else got something better.

[House Baratheon]

Sleepy being given the apple - although I didn't think about it at the time - means that the symp thinks Sleepy is the FM, or at least wants us to think that.

Ouch. I interpreted the gift in totally opposite way. I assumed Sleeppy will die soon, not kill anybody else.

Allowing Santa to give a vig kill just looks much more silly than allowing him to do vig kill himself.

[House Dayne]

Santa: Also known as Sympaclause, this guy wants the elves to win, so they can free him. However, he has no idea who his loyal elves are. Consider this to be a standard symp, only he doesn't know who his master is, and can give out lovely presents! Santa may be able to give gifts to himself. Santa's gift giving is unguardable. Any other powers he may have are guardable.

True - Santa may be able to give gifts to himself. Sorry Sleepy, not cleared yet:p

What we don't know about the gifts ... almost everything. We don't know what they do, we don't know if they can be used the same night (although I'd assume you'd be informed of a gift at the end of the night to be used at any time after - we don't know this however.

We don't know what the apple does - we just have Sleepy's word for it when and if he decides to tell us. Since we have no idea what the gifts do, or what kind of restrictions are on them, we can't know if it is a good idea to share this information or not.

[House Dayne]

I'm more than a bit surprised that the Smurf is dead. Apparently the FM decided no to spend too much thoughts about their symp.

What did you mean by this?

[House Stokeworth]

Hey, mods, why was Smurf's alt revealed but not Gimli's?

Okay, seriously, guys, this is getting ridiculous. Doc has posted six times, and here you are arguing for pages and pages about the wording of every single sentence. Yes. We get it. Alberich, you think an FM would be careful not to lynch a potential symp. Sleeppy, you think an FM wouldn't care so much. Now what do you guys think of the other players in the game?

Alberich, I don't mean this to sound snarky, because I do like a lot of your thinking, but is there anyone you suspect based on something other than them having negative thoughts on Tyrion or Durin, or positive thoughts on Sleeppy and Gimli? I'm starting to agree with Happy: I think you should broaden your scope a little. I get the impression that you're using a couple of players as a litmus test for everyone else's alignment. (Tyrion has to be innocent for attacking a symp clue, so Durin has to be innocent for defending Tyrion, in spite of the lack of quality of his arguments, so Sleepy has to be guilty for attacking both Tyrion and Durin, etc.) FM usually don't all take the same side in an argument.

Feel free not to answer this if you think this would give away information to the FM, but is there any way to cure the poison, Sleepy?

Also, does the symp have any idea of whether his gift will be a good, neutral, or bad one? Obviously, that affects whether we assume Sleepy was targeted for his innocent charm or his black elvish heart.

I addressed that earlier. I'd think he'd want to get he fake symp lynched so the FM don't think that they might have found him. I think it's a safe lynch target as he figures it gives him focus and it's probably not his master.

THIS. No one should be cleared for going after a symp clue, because Sympaclause knows that all symp clues he hasn't left himself are accidental. What better way to contribute than to go after someone for a slip he knows is innocuous?

Don't have the time to reread all the stuff that happened on a proper way. I'm more than a bit surprised that the Smurf is dead. Apparently the FM decided no to spend too much thoughts about their symp.

Explain to me why the FM should have considered Smurf as a symp, and why you're dropping hints about presents...

Oh, right. You're Santa. Thanks for reminding me. :P

I have some theories as to the distribution of FM and symps, but I don't know if I should go into them on the thread. It might help the FM narrow down potential symps (and vice-versa).

Anyway, I have to go to bed now. I don't think I'll have time to post tomorrow before work, but I should be around tomorrow evening as well as Christmas Day. I'm planning on writing a more coherent case on Tyrion then; I already explained why I disliked his earlier attacks on Gimli, but I'd like to articulate just what it is that bothers me about his more recent responses. I don't have much time to contribute long cases this game, but if you have any specific questions you have for me, I'll try to answer them.