Jon is not a Targaryen

[Lord Stark]

Blood does not make the person, how the person is raised makes the person. Judging people on blood is not at all real. Rhaeger had the blood of the dragon and is said to have much honor. Egg is said to be a good person(I have not read that book) and has the blood of the dragon. Saying someone acts the way them to because of the blood in them is illogical. Come up with something different then naming a few bad Targaryen and pinning everything they do against all Targaryen. By that logic I should be blamed for the sins of my father or mother just because they are my blood. I don't want to be rude, but saying because someone has targaryen blood in them, so they must act a certain way is stupid. If the only thing that you can say to disprove R+L=J is that he doesn't act like a Targaryen, after he was raised by a Stark, then you have nothing. There is no one set way to be Targaryen, Stark or any other. Ned was not like his brother Brandan, who had the 'wolf blood', but they are still brothers. Theon is not a true Iron Born because of the way he was raised at Winterfell. If he had never known his father or his fathers ways then he would have no reason to act as he does.

GRRM is not Goodkind or Brook, and can make the story unfold with Jon being King in a very good way. There is more then one way to do thing, and I think GRRM has proved this in his writing.

[Steve Moss]

Blood does not make the person, how the person is raised makes the person.

In actuality, genetics does play a role in behavior. However, upbringing likely plays a greater role.

GRRM is not Goodkind or Brook, and can make the story unfold with Jon being King in a very good way. There is more then one way to do thing, and I think GRRM has proved this in his writing.

Agreed. Trust GRRM. He's given us 4 good books. It's likely he'll give us a few more. :cool:

[Xanrn]

In actuality, genetics does play a role in behavior. However, upbringing likely plays a greater role.

Agreed. Trust GRRM. He's given us 4 good books. It's likely he'll give us a few more. :cool:

No author on this planet could make Jon getting a Dragon, marrying Dany and becoming King anything but contrived and cliched. Therefore crap.

Also I'm not talking about genetics.

Read what I wrote, I mentioned nothing about genetics.

Ned says to Arya, "the Wolf Blood led Brandon and Lyanna to an early grave". Its a mindset.

People then say Jon has the Wolf Blood and it proves he is a Stark.

But then R+L=J-ers, come along and say its the Dragon Blood like Viserys...

I was saying their not the same thing. I was responding to someone in a previous point.

Anyway none of this matter, because only Howland knows the truth.

He is not going to tell anyone but Jon.

There is noway to proove it either, without Howlands sworn testimony and he is not exactly a reknowned Lord.

[Lord Stark]

Who said anything about Dragons Blood? I think you pretty much said what I have been trying to say. All this talk about blood is a mindset, without growing up around Targaryen, he would have no reason to have their mindset. He grew up around Stark's and so would have their mindset. I don't believe that just because R+L=J may be true that Jon must have the 'Blood of the Dragon' and act like them. No matter who his parents are, he was raised a Stark, and will act a Stark.

GRRM has done a good job so far, he has planned out his story, and if he wanted Jon to become a king, I doubt he would all of a sudden start writing like other writers. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Jon will become King, I don't even know if I want him to be a King, but I don't think if GRRM did that, that the story would get worse or feel like any other book.

[Steve Moss]

No author on this planet could make Jon getting a Dragon, marrying Dany and becoming King anything but contrived and cliched. Therefore crap.

One of the things that GRRM has been doing, and doing well, is taking fantasy cliches (such as R+L=J) and turning them on their ear.

So I fully expect the cliche set up. I also fully expect that a metaphorical knee to the groin will be delivered to that cliche, making it painful (though interesting) to read.

Also I'm not talking about genetics.

Read what I wrote, I mentioned nothing about genetics.

1. I was responding to Lord Stark. Though to be fair, I think he was responding to you.

2. The word "blood" is synonymous with family and, by extension, genetics. As I am fairly sure that medieval types would not be familiar with genetics or DNA, but they are fully aware that certain physical, mental and emotional traits are based down through families, "blood" is a reasonable interpretation for what we would refer to as "genes".

Ned says to Arya, "the Wolf Blood led Brandon and Lyanna to an early grave". Its a mindset.

Blood does not equal a mindset. When one refers to a person's "blood" and how that effects behavior, one is essentially referring to some inate family trait which is based through the generations.

Not "mindsets."

People then say Jon has the Wolf Blood and it proves he is a Stark.

But then R+L=J-ers, come along and say its the Dragon Blood like Viserys...

It might be "dragon" blood. It might be "wolf" blood. There seems to be similarities between the two, such as passion, violence, impetous behavior.

In the fantasy setting of Westeros, wolf blood apparently confers the ability to Warg to a greater or lesser degree, usually with wolves but in some special cases (such as Bran) with more. Dragon blood gives one an affinity for dragons and fire.

There is nothing to indicate, so far, that one can have one "blood" but not the other. Or vice-versa.

So one can point to Jon's homicidal outbursts and say "wolf" blood or "dragon" blood, as you prefer. Considering Ghost, I lean to wolf blood. Notwithstanding that, it is also possible that Jon has "dragon" blood in him also.

We'll find out, eventually.

I was saying their not the same thing. I was responding to someone in a previous point.

Anyway none of this matter, because only Howland knows the truth.

He is not going to tell anyone but Jon.

There is noway to proove it either, without Howlands sworn testimony and he is not exactly a reknowned Lord.

There are more potential possessors of knowledge out there other than Howland Reed. Off the top of my mind, in addition to Howland Reed:

1. The Dragons themselves. They all like Brown Ben Plumm, who has a sliver of dragon blood in him. If R+L=J, or Aerys + L=J, they may go apesh*t over Jon. And when they do, people may recollect that R (or A) abducted Lyanna, Ned found her South, and Ned came from the South with a child which he raised as his own, though people constantly reference that even honorable Ned had a bastard as if it were out of keeping with his personal behavior. Connect the dots time may kick into high gear.

2. Wylla. If she's Jon's mom, end of discussion. If not, she was likely at the ToJ, either as a midwife or wetnurse. Alternatively, she was with Jon so quickly afterward (hours after birth likely) that she may have substantial information.

3. Ned's letter. In posssession of Varys. Who knows what it may say and what Varys may now know.

4. Barristan Selmy. The only known surviving KG from Aerys. Fought and rode with Rhegar. High likelihood that he knew (or at least inquired) as to where the other three KG where and for what reason. And last we heard from him, he was going to tell Dany her father's "secrets."

5. Arthur Dayne & Ashara Dayne. For reasons already belabored to death, I don't think they died at either the ToJ or Starfall.

Who said anything about Dragons Blood? I think you pretty much said what I have been trying to say. All this talk about blood is a mindset, without growing up around Targaryen, he would have no reason to have their mindset. He grew up around Stark's and so would have their mindset. I don't believe that just because R+L=J may be true that Jon must have the 'Blood of the Dragon' and act like them. No matter who his parents are, he was raised a Stark, and will act a Stark.

I think that Jon's conscious behaviors are defintely have Ned's fingerprints all over them. Jon is the ideal lord/commander, much as Ned (and even Robb) were.

There are multiple lapses though. Jon possesses a homicidal temper. This could be the result of deep seated resentment of his bastardry, or go deeper to some innate propensity for violence.

GRRM has done a good job so far, he has planned out his story, and if he wanted Jon to become a king, I doubt he would all of a sudden start writing like other writers. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Jon will become King, I don't even know if I want him to be a King, but I don't think if GRRM did that, that the story would get worse or feel like any other book.

100% agreed.

[Lyanna Targaryen]

GRRM does whatever the hell he wants. He's already done the theme "the world revolves around the beautiful princess" with Dany. Plus Jon is the GOLDEN BOY. Arya is in the makings of the sexy assassin. Bran the Broken is set to be the next Gandalf.

As I've said before, GRRM does cliches, but he pulls those old as time themes better than anyone else. If Jon gets a dragon, fine. If Dany marries Jon Snow or Jon Stark or Jon Targaryen, fine. If Arya becomes Aeon Flux, fine. This is what's happening, people, so deal with it or throw your books away.

[Xanrn]

There are more potential possessors of knowledge out there other than Howland Reed. Off the top of my mind, in addition to Howland Reed:

1. The Dragons themselves. They all like Brown Ben Plumm, who has a sliver of dragon blood in him. If R+L=J, or Aerys + L=J, they may go apesh*t over Jon. And when they do, people may recollect that R (or A) abducted Lyanna, Ned found her South, and Ned came from the South with a child which he raised as his own, though people constantly reference that even honorable Ned had a bastard as if it were out of keeping with his personal behavior. Connect the dots time may kick into high gear.

2. Wylla. If she's Jon's mom, end of discussion. If not, she was likely at the ToJ, either as a midwife or wetnurse. Alternatively, she was with Jon so quickly afterward (hours after birth likely) that she may have substantial information.

3. Ned's letter. In posssession of Varys. Who knows what it may say and what Varys may now know.

4. Barristan Selmy. The only known surviving KG from Aerys. Fought and rode with Rhegar. High likelihood that he knew (or at least inquired) as to where the other three KG where and for what reason. And last we heard from him, he was going to tell Dany her father's "secrets."

5. Arthur Dayne & Ashara Dayne. For reasons already belabored to death, I don't think they died at either the ToJ or Starfall.

I think that Jon's conscious behaviors are defintely have Ned's fingerprints all over them. Jon is the ideal lord/commander, much as Ned (and even Robb) were.

There are multiple lapses though. Jon possesses a homicidal temper. This could be the result of deep seated resentment of his bastardry, or go deeper to some innate propensity for violence.

100% agreed.

1. So what the Dragons may like him(Bet you they like would like Bran if he meets them and Tyrion when he does). Wolves, Horses(doesn't proove he is a Bracken) and Crows(doesn't proove he is a Maester) already like him. He is thought of as a Warg already. Also thats one helluva leap. How the hell do you even get from "Dragons like him" to "Rhaeger and Lyanna incident"? and then to "Well they had a child" and then "oh the child is Jon". I mean Sherlock Holmes couldn't make a leap like that. Someone still has to say, "Well I know Lyanna and Rhaeger had a child" . Thats not common knowledge.

2. Wyalla maybe, but she has by all accounts kept her mouth shut for 15 years, heck she could be dumb and unable to write. If she was at the tower she might know Jon was the child of R+L, but if she was at Starfell. She wouldn't need to be told the parentage. Her and Ashara could have played in the Water gardens together and Wyalla swore to Ashara to never tell. Also if she was to tell anyone it would be Doran, and since Doran has been plotting to put Viserys/Dany back on the throne, Wyalla hasn't told or Jon is a bastard.

3. There is no letter, where the hell do people get this? Ned asks Varys "Would you atleast consent to carry a message out for me?"

Varys responds "That depends on the message. I will gladly provide you with pen and paper, if you like. And when you have written what you will, I will take the letter and read it, and deliver it or not as best serves my own ends". Then they go own to discuss politics and whats happening. Then 2 pages later, Varys mentions Ned going to the Wall and being with his Brother and Baseborn Son and then only then does Ned think about wanting to talk Jon in that chapter. Thats the last Eddard Chapter btw.

So tell me where exactly does this letter get written? Where exactly does even hint this letter is anything to do with Jon?

Why in the name of Hell would Ned give Varys a letter thats potential leverage? Why would Ned spill a 15 year old secret in a letter?

And since he doesn't think about Jon till after the Wall is mentioned, why wouldn't he just wait?

Ergo there is no letter and even if there is, it damm well doesn't contain "Btw Jonny-boy, your parents are Rhaeger and Lyanna, have a nice day."

4. Selmy, yes Rhaeger may have come back and told Selmy, Lyanna was pregnant. But he doesn't know if the babe survived, what happened to it, that Jon's maybe it, and all he knows about Jon is that Ned has said he is his bastard. I suppose you could combine this

with point 1 into a reasonable theory.

5. So Arthur and Ashara faked their deaths? Uh why? Unless it was to take the child of Rhaeger+Lyanna into exile and/or maybe Aegon. They just faked their deaths for the fun of it and ran off to a desert island to engage in everyones favourite pastime, Incest! Cause they damm well didn't go to Viserys and Dany.

So basically your 1st point is useless without someone with knowledge that Lyanna was atleast pregnant.

Your point 2 is based a card house. If Wyalla hasn't told yet? Why would she ever tell? Also it would require her activelly going to search out someone and tell.

Your point 3, is debunct and stems from people not reading the book closely enough.

Point 4 only works in combination with 1 or Selmy spending time in the company of Jon and seeing Rhaeger. He still can't proove anything.

5. Well unless you can tell me why Arthur and/or Ashara faked their own deaths. Its a pointless arguement. Pretty much the only person who has said Ashara was alive is Art and he says Ned took their baby and Ashara took R+L baby to somewhere.

Arthur is dead he was buried in one of the 8 cairns at the ToJ, Lyannas body was taken to Starfell where someone probably Silent Sisters turned the body into a skeleton. Like what was done to Ned's body.

[Lord Stark]

1. Someone like Dany or Selmy could connect the dots since they may know more information by the time/if they meet Jon.

2. There are many ways that Wylla could come to tell someone the truth. Selmy could have known she was at the ToJ and seeks her out to find out what she knows. We just don't know what can happen, all stevem was saying is that it could happen.

3. Do you know there is no letter? No you do not. We don't know there is one either, but you can't say there isn't one, and if there is one you can't say what Ned would or would not put on it. Is it likely that he would tell Jon who his parents are in a letter? No, but he could give hints if he never believed he would leave King's Landing alive. There is a chance that a letter contains information that would lead to R+L=J but anything right now is a guess. We have to wait and see.

4. Yes this could work with #1.

5. I don't think Arthur Dayne is alive, he was fighting in a battle that his brothers were killed in, and could have killed some of Ned's friends as well. It's unlikely he lived past that battle. Ashara Dayne could be alive because her body was never found, but the sea can easily eat a body and never return it. Also we don't really have a reason for her to fake her death yet.

Howland is the most likely person to let us know, and Jon who is parents are, or what happened at the ToJ, but not the only. The others may seem unlikely with what we know, but there is always the slight chance that is the way GRRM planned it. We just have to wait and see what he does next.

[VerySmallMonster]

It simply does not make sense for Ned to have been Jon's father.

1. We've already seen a fair amount of evidence pointing to Lyanna as Jon's mother (everything suggests she died in childbirth, the blue rose growing out of the Wall, etc).

2. It is out of character for Ned to father a bastard.

3. The timing is wonky if Ned is the father. To the best of our knowledge, Wylla and Ashara Dayne were both at Starfall during the Rebellion. For Ned to have fathered Jon on either of them, he would have had to travel south to Starfall sometime during the beginning of the Rebellion, which seems pretty strange to me.

On the other hand, Rhaegar was not at KL, during the start of the Rebellion. If I recall correctly he returned to King's Landing from the South (Tower of Joy?) sometime around the Battle of the Bells. Unfortunately, I don't have my books with me so I can't check this...

[Milz]

I'm not quite sure if the timing is that wonky for Jon to be Ned and Ashara's son, what if he got her pregnant at the Harrenhal tourney. He didn't know, fast forward nine months when he goes to return Dawn to Ashara she has given birth to his child. He insists on taking the child back with him but is already married so Ashara commits suicide out of grief for her brother and son. Lyanna may just have well commited suicide as well. If Jon is N+A's son he may well be the next in line for Dawn.

There are quite a few situations that work so I'm not holding my breath for any of them.

[Lord Stark]

I think the Harrenhal tourney is over a year before the start of the rebellion, and then there is the war itself which would have lasted a couple of months at the very least. I can't recall how long Storm's End was under siege, but I think it was a couple months, and the war had already been on for a while.

[Milz]

Maybe so. Perahps Jon was already a couple of months old then.

[VerySmallMonster]

We also know that Jon is slightly younger than Robb, and Robb was conceived right before Ned went to war. Therefore Jon must have been conceived during the war.

Does anyone know how long the war lasted? I feel like it was 6-9 months, but I'm not basing that on anything solid.

[Lord Stark]

Well Catelyn went to Winterfell with Robb already at sucking her breast, so I would say the war lasted at least 9 months. It's unlikely Catelyn would travel to Winterfell until Robb was more then a couple months old. This is just a guess, and I could be wrong, but that is what I think.

[Grant Dempsey]

3. Ned's letter. In posssession of Varys. Who knows what it may say and what Varys may now know.

I really don't think Eddard Stark would have written such sensitive information as the truth of Jon Snow's parentage in a letter he knew Varys was going to read and knew there was a chance of Varys handing over to someone else and not delivering. Throughout A Game of Thrones, he distrusted Varys, and he had no reason to suddenly trust him so deeply in the black cells either.

2. It is out of character for Ned to father a bastard.

I agree that the clues point to Jon Snow being the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (and I am a supporter of R+L=J myself), but I disagree with this point. All explicit information given in the novels (true or false) indicated that Eddard Stark was indeed the father. There are powerful clues pointing to a different conclusion, I do agree, but I think saying it would have been "out of character" for him to have been the father is a poor argument.

In any case, he certainly seemed to harbor a great deal of regret and sorrow over the subject, so even if he was the father, the way he lived with it, emotionally, does fit the character. N+?=J does not have to mean he was Robert Baratheon.

[VerySmallMonster]

I agree that the clues point to Jon Snow being the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (and I am a supporter of R+L=J myself), but I disagree with this point. All explicit information given in the novels (true or false) indicated that Eddard Stark was indeed the father. There are powerful clues pointing to a different conclusion, I do agree, but I think saying it would have been "out of character" for him to have been the father is a poor argument.

In any case, he certainly seemed to harbor a great deal of regret and sorrow over the subject, so even if he was the father, the way he lived with it, emotionally, does fit the character. N+?=J does not have to mean he was Robert Baratheon.

What I mean by saying it is out of character for Ned to father a bastard is that everything we've seen of him shows him of someone with an otherwise impeccable sense of honor, loyalty, and duty. I just can't see him bedding a woman he isn't married to, regardless of the situation. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely.

I agree though, that by itself it is a very weak argument. I included simply because it is another reason why Ned being Jon's biological father doesn't quite fit.

[Artanaro]

1. We've already seen a fair amount of evidence pointing to Lyanna as Jon's mother (everything suggests she died in childbirth, the blue rose growing out of the Wall, etc).

This is terribly illogical. I'm not saying it's not alright to make the leap that Jon is Lyanna's child if it met the rest of the facts but it doesn't. The evidence you listed shows how poor the R+L=J theory is. The blue rose is explained just by Jon being a Stark. People only make the connection between the blue rose that Rhaegar gave Lyanna and Dany's vision if you already believe in this theory. Bael the Bard used a blue rose also, but he wasn't representing Lyanna.

3. The timing is wonky if Ned is the father. To the best of our knowledge, Wylla and Ashara Dayne were both at Starfall during the Rebellion. For Ned to have fathered Jon on either of them, he would have had to travel south to Starfall sometime during the beginning of the Rebellion, which seems pretty strange to me.

This statement is an assumption with no facts to support it. Martin has even come out and said that Ashara was not nailed to the floor of Starfall (check the SSM collection). People are assuming because Eddard goes to meet Ashara at Starfall after the war, she was there the entire war. This is wrong.

On the other hand, Rhaegar was not at KL, during the start of the Rebellion. If I recall correctly he returned to King's Landing from the South (Tower of Joy?) sometime around the Battle of the Bells. Unfortunately, I don't have my books with me so I can't check this...

I will say this again. Proof Lyanna had a child is not proof Jon is that child, but there is evidence against the fact he is even that child.

We also know that Jon is slightly younger than Robb, and Robb was conceived right before Ned went to war. Therefore Jon must have been conceived during the war.

This is not a fact, but I understand your assumption. Catelyn comments that Robb is older Jon, but she is also a biased source. I'd like to hear from anyone on the board with experience with babies if you can determine if one new born is older than another if their births are only separated by a few months.

What I mean by saying it is out of character for Ned to father a bastard is that everything we've seen of him shows him of someone with an otherwise impeccable sense of honor, loyalty, and duty. I just can't see him bedding a woman he isn't married to, regardless of the situation. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely.

This is just your opinion. In fact we've seen Eddard do countless things that were dishonorable, but which he did for the people he loved. He admitted to treason in order to protect Sansa. He marries Catelyn because he needed Lord Tully's support in his war effort. Just the fact he is concealing Lyanna's child from his rightful king is an act of treason. Eddard consistently acts based on love. He most likely loved Jon's mother to, even if that meant breaking a marriage vow.

Artanaro

[SD Stark]

I'd like to hear from anyone on the board with experience with babies if you can determine if one new born is older than another if their births are only separated by a few months.

Depends on what you're considering a newborn, but it would be very difficult to tell if one infant is older than another without the knowledge of their birth dates. My son is six months younger than my nephew, but it would've been hard to tell because he was bigger. I'd assume it would be even more difficult if you put their ages closer together.

Eddard consistently acts based on love. He most likely loved Jon's mother to, even if that meant breaking a marriage vow.

Artanaro

That could be a very big reason why he never speaks of her, and the only person I know of that he never speaks or thinks of is Ashara Dayne.

I agree that the clues point to Jon Snow being the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (and I am a supporter of R+L=J myself), but I disagree with this point. All explicit information given in the novels (true or false) indicated that Eddard Stark was indeed the father. There are powerful clues pointing to a different conclusion, I do agree, but I think saying it would have been "out of character" for him to have been the father is a poor argument.

In any case, he certainly seemed to harbor a great deal of regret and sorrow over the subject, so even if he was the father, the way he lived with it, emotionally, does fit the character. N+?=J does not have to mean he was Robert Baratheon.

I just wanted to applaud you for stating that. It's one of the things that bothers me about people that feel Jon is Rhaegar's son. I agree it's a plausible conclusion one can reach, but it's not a sure thing like some people claim. Based on what I've read and my personal feelings, I believe Jon is Ned and Ashara's child and I've yet to read anything that would convince me otherwise.

We also know that Jon is slightly younger than Robb, and Robb was conceived right before Ned went to war. Therefore Jon must have been conceived during the war.

How do we know this? The only thing I remember is Catelyn saying Jon and his wetnurse were already at Winterfell when she arrived with Robb. Can you point me to a reference or source that says Jon is younger than Robb? I actually asked GRRM personally a long time ago, but unfortunately, I never received an answer.

[Artanaro]

Well Catelyn went to Winterfell with Robb already at sucking her breast, so I would say the war lasted at least 9 months. It's unlikely Catelyn would travel to Winterfell until Robb was more then a couple months old. This is just a guess, and I could be wrong, but that is what I think.

For anyone who wants to try to form their own timeline, this link is awesome

History of Robert's Rebellion

I first just wanted to add one thing to these comments. Remember that Eddard married Catelyn as he was marching south, but he began the war in the Eyrie. So he has to flee north to call his banners, and then travel south past Moat Cailin, all the way to Riverrun and marry Catelyn and we know that happened before the Trident

But this got me thinking, what if Catelyn is right about Robb being older than Jon. The timeline actually goes against Jon being Lyanna's child. Consider this.

I. Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna.

II. Brandon Stark is going towards Riverrun from Winterfell when he hears about his sister's abduction so he instead makes for King's Landing.

Now look at all the events that follow before the marriage between Eddard and Catelyn is consumated. The article, I linked to, argues it happened right before the battle of the Trident, so let me use that as the cutoff point, but I could understand it being before the Battle of the Bells as well (but the Trident seems right based on Lysa's marriage and Eddard's motivation for the marriage). Let me consider both options.

Using the Battle of the Bells

1. Rickard and the other fathers of Brandon's companions are summoned to King's Landing and are executed. Let's say a month passes (it could have been perhaps more or less, if Rickard was in Winterfell it would be more, if the Royce in the Eyrie was the furthest travelor, than maybe 2-3 weeks).

2a. Brandon and co. are executed. Ned escapes to the North to call his bannermen and then must march south to the riverlands. This should be at least a month, if not more. Let say a month and a half again for arguement sake (it shouldn't take too long to get from the Eyrie to White Harbor, but for the north to mobilize would take extra time, especially if he must reach Winterfell).

2b. Robert flees the Eyrie and makes his way to the stormlands. Here, he wins three battles around Summerhall. The length of time it would take to reach Storm's End from the Eyrie, plus the time necessary to mobilize should be about the same as Eddard's previous step. It should take less time to call his loyal bannermen than Ned needs, but the voyage would take much more time and harder to come by, especially if Robert goes to Braavos and then Storm's End (the safer course). A month and a half sounds right.

3. Robert turns over control of Storm's End and his forces to his brother, Stannis, and makes for the Riverlands. Robert is pursued by Connington until the Stoney Sept, when Eddard's forces arrive to save Baratheon from the royalists. Based on Stoney Sept's location, it seems logical he had to reach that point by overland travel (perhaps the Redwyne blockade was already in affect). So to travel from the stormlands to the western edge of the riverlands should perhaps take about one and a half months.

So by the time Catelyn and Eddard are married, 4 months by my approximation have elapsed. So before there is any chance of Robb being consumated, Lyanna and Rhaegar have already been playing husband and wife for a while. Now doesn't anyone find this curious that Jon is noted as being younger than Robb, but the possibility for Lyanna's child being created was 4 months for E+R=C, but let's carry on to the rest of this exercise.

Using the Battle of the Trident (and generally evidence supports this position)

4. Rhaegar returns from the south and rallies Connington's forces. He is also reinforced by Lewyn's 10,000 Dornishmen. He martches to the Trident. At most this would take a month, but let's say 2 weeks which sounds about right.

From a quick read, most people wouldn't notice anything important here, but remember Rhaegar has to travel all the way from the Tower of Joy. That means a month may have already passed since Rhaegar last saw Lyanna when (4) happens. It seems like his departure from Lyanna would definitely happen a while before Eddard and Catelyn consumated their marriage. So Jon would definitely be older than Robb if E+C=R happened right before the Trident and most likely older if Eddard married Catelyn right before the battle of the Bells. What's obvious though is Catelyn should not think whatsoever that Jon is younger than Robb.

But let me summarize the evidence about using the Battle of the Bells as the cutoff again. By my estimate 4 months have transpired between Rhaegar running of with Lyanna and E+C=R. So at the worst case scenario Jon is 4 months older than Robb. If R+L=J happens right as the royal prince leaves, then they should both be approximately the same age.

So all this talk of saying the timeline doesn't fit with N+A=J, there's actually a worse arguement for R+L=J since it seems E+C=R happened right before the Trident. Damn, that's funny. People have been using the line forever.

Also, one more point. People are stuck on the assumption that it would take 9 months for Eddard to reach Lyanna after they became married. This doesn't make any sense. What most likely happened is Eddard found Lyanna well within 9 months, after he was married. But since Jon is younger than Robb, he had to be consumated after N+C=R, at which point Rhaegar was well on his way back to King's Landing. This is so funny.

Artanaro

[VerySmallMonster]

This is terribly illogical. I'm not saying it's not alright to make the leap that Jon is Lyanna's child if it met the rest of the facts but it doesn't. The evidence you listed shows how poor the R+L=J theory is. The blue rose is explained just by Jon being a Stark. People only make the connection between the blue rose that Rhaegar gave Lyanna and Dany's vision if you already believe in this theory. Bael the Bard used a blue rose also, but he wasn't representing Lyanna.

True, but the Bael the bard story fits so well with the Rhaegar and Lyanna story. He gave his Stark lover a blue rose, and IIRC (again, I don't have my books :cry: so I can't check it) he later came back and ran off with her. Rhaegar did very much the same thing. I think it's possible, although I say this without ready evidence, that Lyanna loves blue roses, because Rhaegar gave her some.

This statement is an assumption with no facts to support it. Martin has even come out and said that Ashara was not nailed to the floor of Starfall (check the SSM collection). People are assuming because Eddard goes to meet Ashara at Starfall after the war, she was there the entire war. This is wrong.

Good point, I hadn't really thought about that.

I will say this again. Proof Lyanna had a child is not proof Jon is that child, but there is evidence against the fact he is even that child.

This is not a fact, but I understand your assumption. Catelyn comments that Robb is older Jon, but she is also a biased source. I'd like to hear from anyone on the board with experience with babies if you can determine if one new born is older than another if their births are only separated by a few months.

I don't think it's just Catelyn who thinks that, but you're right he could be a little older than Robb. I don't think that makes it any likelier that Ned would have fathered Jon though. Wasn't he in the Eyrie at the time?

This is just your opinion. In fact we've seen Eddard do countless things that were dishonorable, but which he did for the people he loved. He admitted to treason in order to protect Sansa. He marries Catelyn because he needed Lord Tully's support in his war effort. Just the fact he is concealing Lyanna's child from his rightful king is an act of treason. Eddard consistently acts based on love. He most likely loved Jon's mother to, even if that meant breaking a marriage vow.

I agree, but I think it's different. He acts dishonorably to protect people he loves. He thinks about it and makes a decision to choose love over honor. That's quite different from getting a woman he loves with child.