AGOT Mafia Game 72 - Adventures Beyond The Wall

[House Dondarrion]

I've come to the conclusion that as what I may say in future is likely to be as coherent as what I have posted thus fr, I may as well not post anymore because it is unlikely to hange opinions of me, and whether Grandison feels I am a valuable contributing memeber of the team.

This gives me the opportunity to bunk off posting for a while and play some bass/sleep/pass out/post on the killers forum.

[House Clegane]

Good God, now I'll have to do Bracken. :bawl:

First I'll update the votecount, and then I'll take my shower now. How long do people think I should give my target to claim? Because it will take me forever to do this for seven-to-eight players.

Can I make a suggestion?

Unless there is a serious mob for a darkhorse candidate, the preferred lynch of the group is going to be one of:

Cerwyn, Dayne, Vyrwel, or Swann (Plumm could maybe be in this group)

Consider all votes retracted and let's move forward with votes and thoughts on this group. If you have something you absolutely want to say about someone else, go for it. Simply for the sake of having a few lynch options I would like to try this out so we don't just steamroll one person or never really come to a consensus because it is the king's final decision.

Thoughts/Concerns/Hate/Love?

[House Thorne]

This.

It would be a huge mission if I was sober. As it is it is nigh on impossible.

Okay, from joke posting to now apparently drunk posting? Suddenly I feel stupid for defending you.

Vyrwel is my new inactive of choice. I don't think the dribble he's put out today really constitutes posting.

[House Connington]

Harclay,

Why Dayne instead of Vyrwel?

Both have (or had, at the moment of my post) an equal number of posts, but to me Dayne's look far scummier.

And pretty much my comment regarding Dayne's post being coached goes to you as well. If you were coaching someone, how likely would it be that you would coach them to make the post that Dayne did.

Attacking strong players is an innocent tell. You say it would be suicidal for Dayne to attack such an aggressive/abrasive/whatever player as yourself, but rather than going medieval on his ass you defend him to some extent (by pushing a different lynch and questioning his accusers). While I think it's fair enough that you make these points now, I find it slightly peculiar that you didn't call Dayne on it yourself. In any case, it was obviously not suicidal, was it? So why insist on that point?

Not that you necessarily must be consistent at this point, but Cerwyn is pushing your quiet suspect...how does that effect your view or you chalk it up as potential distancing at this point and ignore it?

I find them independently suspicious, but unlikely to be partnered. Obviously if one of them dies and turns up guilty it will lessen my suspicions of the other considerably.

Heh, my long post of 4 short posts from Vyrwel was the sum total of his posts to that time. You like that I wanted Vyrwel to contribute, but you don't like that I posted something intended to prompt Vyrwel to post? Interesting.

Interested as you may be, while I like players contributing, I consider that lack of contribution is usually due to RL issues rather than lack of third player motivation (specially at such early point in the game). I tend to find posts prompting players to contribute more pretty vapid, and not really contributing in themselves.

I find it more suspicious that my completely innocuous post prodding a low participant to participate more caused such a defense of Vyrwel. It's good to have friends.

Yes, yes, of course.

[House Redfort]

Here's the most recent vote count:

It is day 1.

13 players remain: Bracken, Cerwyn, Dayne, Grandison, Harclay, Kenning, Plumm, Qorgyle, Reyne, Swann, Tarbeck, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Cerwyn ( Yarwyck, Qorgyle, Tarbeck, Swann)

2 votes for Vyrwel ( Bracken, Cerwyn)

1 vote for Qorgyle ( Reyne)

6 players have not voted: Dayne, Grandison, Harclay, Kenning, Plumm, Vyrwel.

Three hours to go.

Players who have not reached the seven-post target are Dayne and Kenning.

Ugh. I'm going to shower now. I'm really not eager to make this decision.

[House Connington]

I've done that before. :smoking:

Having said that, I was in a serious state of desperaion at the time. <_<

Were you actually evil?

True, you were the one to bring up the coaching argument (which I disagree with, but ah well).

So Harclay, is your implication that I should lynch Cerwyn unless I decide to limit myself to the inactive players? What happened to this post?

It's still there, you can re-read it and cherish it in your heart. If you mean what happened to my opinion of Cerwyn, then I slightly changed my mind regarding my level of suspicion of him, and I considering the unwavering suspicion on him I think it would also be good on a strategic level.

Are you saying we should lynch him just so we don't waste time on him tomorrow?

Yeah. Everybody and their cat is dead suspicious of Cerwyn. If you ask us to vote again tomorrow he'll just come up again and again. I wouldn't suggest lynching him if I thought he was as pure as virgin snow, but since I don't... Anyway, if you'd rather not go with Cerwyn I suggest you go for Dayne or Qorgyle.

I'd also like to know who you personally suspect and why. Just for the record.

[House Thorne]

I think that "we'll suspect him tomorrow" is a poor argument. Day one has a huge lack of information. Day 2, we finally have something to work with. Therefore day 1 suspects aren't always followed into day 2.

[House Stokeworth]

6 players have not voted: Dayne, Grandison, Harclay, Kenning, Plumm, Vyrwel.

I think we're past the point where everyone should have a vote down (other than Grandison). The rest of you need to commit to a choice for the lynch.

Players who have not reached the seven-post target are Dayne and Kenning.

I'll be very curious to read your thoughts about Swann and Vyrwel.

[House Corbray]

You don't see the inconsistency of liking Grandison pressuring low posters...and then defending one immediately?

I haven't found it yet, but I've only been skim reading. Your quote in this post says it's from Grandison, but it's actually from Reyne.

Onto other matters once again.

[House Connington]

I'm going to leave and won't be back before the end of the day. If you want to know who I'd vote for to then do analysis or something, then I'm voting Qorgyle, though I don't really think voting is that useful a mechanic in this kind of game.

[House Redfort]

I owe it to everyone for them to get a glimpse of what's going on in my mind. The thing is, I feel like these opinions are wishy-washy and not very informed. I'm just going off gut impressions, simply because of the sheer volume of posts.

Bracken: He's the kind of player I feel I need to do justice to with a full reread, simply because the volume of posts is so high. Some of his arguments are true and some are very flawed. I've already said that most FM don't act this controversially, although I could see him as a symp.

Cerwyn: See my giant post. His jumping on the Vyrwel bandwagon for Vyrwel's drunkposting makes him look slightly worse.

Dayne: Poor, safe contribution. I'd like to reread his last post to see if the "coaching" accusation holds (and if his logic makes sound). Thinking his weak play could be a null tell for meta reasons. Also, there's the WIFOM question--would a killer let himself fall into the pool of low posters?

Harclay: I've found him kind of wishy-washy and safe all game, starting from his reaction to my nameclaim suggestion.

Kenning: Thanks for nothing. :mad:

Plumm: I'm no longer as certain of his innocence--for example, his case assuming that Reyne was symping me because of the word "rabidly" was pretty bad.

Qorgyle: I'd consider lynching him today, but he's another player I wanted to do a reread of. I strongly disliked his earlier posts (thought he was stretching things, and something about him rubs me the wrong way). But I feel as though this is just gut and I don't have a coherent case on him.

Reyne: I already said that I thought his reactions to Cerwyn came off as innocent-ish. I'll admit that his behaviour fits an FM pattern well, though, because he did try to get on my good side. And I don't know why he hasn't posted today.

Swann: Agree with Yarwyck that his "look, I don't care about your opinions, because I have only six posts" followed by his quick addition of a seventh and eight post is a bit suspect. Hasn't said much during his time in the game other than parrot popular opinions. Also, his symp case was pretty bad.

Tarbeck: I have a favourable impression of him. Has lots of controversial opinions, attacks players who aren't group suspects. Probably the player I'd most safely label as innocent.

Vyrwel: Um, I can't believe I'm saying this, but his drunk posting actually came off as somewhat sincere (particularly the random "I hate Reyne for being wishy-washy" part, unless his partner coached him to attack Reyne). I can't say he's exactly been helpful so far, though.

Yarwyck: I think he'd be a poor choice for a D1 lynch, but I still have niggling doubts based on nothing but gut and paranoia. Has been playing aggressively, and shows potential to find scum.

Wow. That was so wishy-washy. I'm not even sure how to work this into tiers. Fuck.

Um, players I'd consider lynching today:

Cerwyn, Dayne, Harclay, Qorgyle, Swann, Vyrwel even though I got an innocent read from him.

Maaaaybe Plumm or Kenning. Or maybe even Bracken. Or maybe--

Fuck. That's practically everyone.

I'm tempted to go for an easy choice like Dayne, simply so I don't feel as bad if I'm wrong. I'd feel much more comfortable if I wasn't the sole person able to kill people. I know I should have used my office to be all aggressive and pressure people and play mindgames with them...but it's Day One, and I've been having trouble getting reads on people. I have lots of nebulous suspicions, but I feel bad going, "You're not everyone's top suspect...but you kind of bug me a little. BAM! You're dead!"

If you mean what happened to my opinion of Cerwyn, then I slightly changed my mind regarding my level of suspicion of him, and I considering the unwavering suspicion on him I think it would also be good on a strategic level.

What did Cerwyn do that made you suspect him more? (Forgive me if you answered this and I didn't see it.)

[House Redfort]

I'm going to leave and won't be back before the end of the day. If you want to know who I'd vote for to then do analysis or something, then I'm voting Qorgyle, though I don't really think voting is that useful a mechanic in this kind of game.

NOOOOO!

Get back here!

I don't care if you have a real life. You're not allowed to just disappear before we decide if we should lynch you!

:tantrum:

[House Corbray]

Work, pfft. Not like we can't all find new jobs after the game!

I only just got this one after losing my job during the last game! I have to make a good impression. :(

Too much of a stretch.

It's exactly the sort of argumentation I'd expect from a guilty, making a big fuss about minor things, like coinciding terminology, gender slips and so on. Killers adore such stuff, but innos, I think, should avoid using it outside of secondary proof for a really good case.

I know, it is a stretch, but I trust my instincts. A lot more than Grandison trusts theirs. I've correctly hounded people for question marks before, so I'm more than happy to carry this assumption along for a little while.

Also - I didn't see a really good case. Come on, it's Day One. If I can't indulge these (probably) meaningless tells now, then I never can.

Ok, not evident, but very probable.

Truely, Vyrwel still might give us something great, as well as Swann, but don't you agree that at the current moment, with information available to us, Vyrwel looks worse than Swann and Dayne?

No. For the reasons stated after this post. Dayne attempted serious content and failed. Vyrwel left at a non-serious point of the game, so what's so suspicious about RP posts? Nothing is what. Ergo Dayne looks worse than Vyrwel and around the same as Swann (at this point).

But how probable it is that only time Vyrwel had for us coincided exactly with RP phase?

Sorry, but that's not a very good thing to say. That's like saying it's a massive coincidence Swann was only available to play long after the game had got serious and other suspects had time to come to the fore, leaving Swann tidily in the back and able to slide in and add a voice to the masses. It's just the timing it was, that's all.

I knew you would say this. Now, if you are innocent, just think why I haven't OMGUSed Qorgyle, who voted me first.

Failing to OMGUS is not a point in your favour. Bringing up the point you avoided the OMGUS yourself is a point against you. And Harclay's later point that Qorgyle didn't even vote you just makes this whole statement make me o_O (I'm not checking facts as I go...)

It's also a CF game. Unless the FM have decided to throw distancing out of the window they're probably expressing some mild form of suspicion of each other.

You do remember Game 71?

This is my least favourite vote of the day:

Okay, from joke posting to now apparently drunk posting? Suddenly I feel stupid for defending you.

Vyrwel is my new inactive of choice. I don't think the dribble he's put out today really constitutes posting.

Why does it have to be an inactive? Is it, maybe, because King Grandison said so? Hey Yarwyck, look! Someone fell into the trap, old buddy. He's only looking at inactives! Oh, you're already voting him. Never mind. I'm going to go look at some other stuff.

EDIT: To fix the last quote.

[House Mooton]

Can I make a suggestion?

Unless there is a serious mob for a darkhorse candidate, the preferred lynch of the group is going to be one of:

Cerwyn, Dayne, Vyrwel, or Swann (Plumm could maybe be in this group)

Consider all votes retracted and let's move forward with votes and thoughts on this group. If you have something you absolutely want to say about someone else, go for it. Simply for the sake of having a few lynch options I would like to try this out so we don't just steamroll one person or never really come to a consensus because it is the king's final decision.

Thoughts/Concerns/Hate/Love?

As much as I agree with this thought, I find it ironic that you are trying to lead the conversation :P

I would say Plumm deserves to be in this group as well, he is on a lot of people's suspect lists if not at the very top. I don't have a major problem with Swann or Vyrwel right now. The arguments against them are not so much their content as them barely reaching an arbitrary limit. Nothing shatteringly original in their posts, but they came late to the party so it's harder to get into the swing of things. Yes, this is a self-serving argument since I have been accused of the same thing - sheeping and being in the middle of the road. It happens.

Out of Plumm, Cerwyn and Dayne I won't be too upset if any of them go, actually. I dislike Dayne a lot more now.

*collapses from the thundering roar of FLIP-FLOPPER from the crowd*

His case was pretty stretchy and isolated. By that I mean he doesn't offer any real thoughts prior to this and then leaves his weak case to stand on it's own merits. He doesn't comment on people's reactions or defend it further. He doesn't do anything, really. He's now shown that he's paying attention and had time to formulate an opinion, complete with quotes. I dislike the 'he was coached' argument, but it does look like he wanted to contribute something, anything to diffuse a little heat. While I'm not convinced his actions are truly scummy, I am pretty sure I wouldn't mind taking this opportunity to get rid of him early on. To be clear - I am not advocating his lynch only to rid ourselves of dead weight, but it is a big bonus.

Plumm for me falls only slightly on the scummy side of middle and Cerwyn is still largely a big question mark for me. He does a lot of little things that seem potentially scummy, but nothing that screams scum to me. I am willing to let him stick around, but I won't protest his death too much.

For the record, I still dislike Qorgyle for the reason I stated and would prefer him over anyone else, but out of the realistic possibilities, I'd go for Dayne.

[House Corbray]

Just for the lols to show I was right that people would unnecessarily focus on the 7 post threshold, how many posts have concentrated on low posters with special attention paid to the arbitrary six post threshold placed by Grandison?:

Now we have three players below 6-posts treshold: Vyrwel, Dayne and Swann (there probably are players who haven't posted at all, but they are a meat for modkill not for lynch). And I think Vyrwel is objectively worst of them. Because it's better to have 1 or 3 posts in serious phase than 5 posts in RP phase. If a person has a time and opportunity to post during RP phase but vanishes shortly after real game started, it always looks extremely scummy.

Perhaps, Qorgyle made his attack on Vyrwel too early, but now it's evident he was right.

Which led to responses:

Right, I meant to say seemed or could seem at first pass, but not so when looking at it more. I don't love Qorgyle, but I think his post there effectively unearthed two people looking scummy...Vyrwel for their posts and then Cerwyn for the reaction.

How is it evident he was right?

We've still not reached the time of day that Vyrwel was active. If he can only give, say, 4 hours to the game on the first day, is that such a problem? He came on, spent 4 hours posting, then disappeared. If he doesn't come back, sure. If we get to 21-22 hours missing, then sure. As it stands though, there's plenty of time for him to pop on with today's insights.

Then:

If you want to go for someone quiet, I'd probably go with Vyrwel if I was going to go with anyone from the group of Vyrwel, Dayne, Swann, and Kenning.

Players in the less-than-seven posts pool:

Vyrwel

Dayne

Kenning

Swann

Except now it's WIFOM time: would the FM be more or less likely to be in that group of four players, given that I announced my first priority would be from the group of low posters?

GAH! *head explodes*

Less likely, unless they had a genuine reason for not getting on i'd say...

Which means it's pretty much useless :(

Not suspicious in and of itself, but if we're looking for somebody who might be stretching to reach 7 posts, it stands out.

<snip>

First, the fact that he points out this is his 6th post. It shows that he is absolutely conscious of Rule 2 and the 7 post threshold. And it possibly shows that he realized people might think he's stretching to get out of the bottom posters list....so he makes a joke about it, to undermine the potential negative attention he might receive.

<snip>

Post 6 - "I am so confident that I am going to actually stop at 6 posts today - 1 short of the threshold that would make me safe! Look how innocent I am."

Post 7 (10 minutes later) - "So anyway...."

Makes me wonder if he panicked and decided he had to get himself over 7 posts even after his joke in post 6, just in case you were serious about Rule 2.

---------

Vyrwel is the other player who could be conscious of Rule 2. I base that mainly on his return post an hour ago. He knows he needs a few more to reach 7, and he gives us this -

Just like Swann, a mid-game introductory post by a player in the theoretical Rule 2 danger zone, when one isn't necessary.

Yes. I am incredibly immature.

[House Thorne]

Why does it have to be an inactive? Is it, maybe, because King Grandison said so? Hey Yarwyck, look! Someone fell into the trap, old buddy. He's only looking at inactives! Oh, you're already voting him. Never mind. I'm going to go look at some other stuff.

EDIT: To fix the last quote.

It doesn't have to be an inactive. However, Dayne was my choice because of poor play and low contribution. Vy, I had been defending...

But he comes in drunk after missing the entire serious phase. We can't really consider this to be "serious phase" for him either. He posted a lot so he'd seem active, but may as well have popped in and said "avoiding the modkill, talk to you all tomorrow."

So yes, after I defended him earlier, I'm pretty pissed with him right now. Maybe I'm letting it become personal, but what can I say?

[House Redfort]

A suggestion for the king on Day Two: I think everyone should announce in advance if they'll be around to post during the deadline, so you don't get any surprise "Teehee, you can't lynch me because I'm not around to reveal!" posts.

Can I make a suggestion?

Unless there is a serious mob for a darkhorse candidate, the preferred lynch of the group is going to be one of:

Cerwyn, Dayne, Vyrwel, or Swann (Plumm could maybe be in this group)

Is there a reason why Swann is in this group and Qorgyle isn't? (Oh, and why you're not in that group--but duh. :P

[House Thorne]

Seeing as we're running low on time, it may be an idea to follow Plumm's earlier suggestion Grandy.

Why not give us three choices for the lynch. If any of them have anything to claim, they can do so before you make your decision.

The reason for this is say you choose Jack. He reveals as the Court Jester half an hour later. "Okay, how about Robert?". An hour later, with 20 minutes to go, he reveals as fireman. Now you have 20 minutes left, choose Smithy, who unknown to you is the Jedi Knight. Unfortunately, he doesn't get a chance to let you know that, causing him to be lynched... Or failing that he gets it out just in time, but that leads to a no-lynch.

Deciding one at a time then giving us chances to get out of it is too risky.

[House Mooton]

Um, players I'd consider lynching today:

Cerwyn, Dayne, Harclay, Qorgyle, Swann, Vyrwel even though I got an innocent read from him.

Maaaaybe Plumm or Kenning. Or maybe even Bracken. Or maybe--

Out of those options, my tiers would look like this:

Qorgyle, Dayne

Cerwyn

Harclay, Plumm

Swann, Vyrwel, Kenning

(I'm liking Plumm more since the first part of the day and Harclay less)

[House Mooton]

Cerwyn speaks sense.

edit: 1h 40m left. That can go by fast if you're waiting on people to show up and counter-argue/reveal.