AGOT Mafia Game 72 - Adventures Beyond The Wall

[House Connington]

A great case Yarwyck. You have my support and my vote: Swann.

Bracken and Tarbeck would be my other options.

I think this is a great example of innocent behavior: putting a great deal of work into going after a previously pretty unsuspected player rather than just joining the mob on Bracken or Vyrwel.

I'm off to bed now. Good luck Reyne.

[House Mooton]

Ok, I just got a job offer that I want and I have a first date in an hour. Do with the game what you will, life is bliss. See you all later tonight in the thread.

Yay! :cheers:

Best of luck with both!

[House Mooton]

It is day 1.

7 players remain: Bracken, Cerwyn, Harclay, Swann, Tarbeck, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

3 votes for Swann (Yarwyck, Cerwyn, Harclay)

2 votes for Bracken (Swann, Tarbeck)

1 vote for Tarbeck (Vyrwel)

1 vote for Vyrwel (Bracken)

[House Thorne]

I'm off to have a bath then head to bed. I'll try to pop in to check up on the thread in the meantime, but doubt I'll have more than five minutes later. :)

[House Targaryen]

Mina-mod has to leave, like, five minutes ago. You'll have to wait for the CF until later. :(

[House Baratheon]

I'm here.

3 votes for Swann (Yarwyck, Cerwyn, Harclay)

2 votes for Bracken (Swann, Tarbeck)

1 vote for Tarbeck (Vyrwel)

1 vote for Vyrwel (Bracken)

Urg, really? Ok I'm reading. I'll see what I've got.

[House Mooton]

Round 2 results:

Bracken v Cerwyn

Cerwyn walks onto the tourney grounds and begins talking trash about Bracken. In fact, he's talking trash about everyone left in the tournament. He makes a lot of noise, jumps around a lot waving his arms and being a general nuisance. Bracken raises an eyebrow and waits for him to get close. It's no contest - Cerwyn is all talk.

Bracken wins!

Swann v Tarbeck

They face each other, neither taking their eyes off the other.

"Listen Tarbeck, I wasn't thrilled when you tried to take down Vyrwel"

"Weren't you also trying?"

"Well yeah, but I was only using a practice sword. You had out your knives."

"This is evident."

They circle a bit more, still wary.

"Do you see Bracken over there warming up for his round?"

"Where? Behind Vyrwel?"

"Focus Tarbeck! I don't like him, and I don't think you do either."

"Is possible"

"If we team up, we can take him out."

"Hmmm, I think I can agree to that."

They come together and shake hands, then head grimly over to where Bracken is gloating over his fallen foe. Looks like it's gonna be a 3-way deathmatch!

And the crowd goes wild!!

[House Mooton]

We have 1h 15m left. If you want to defend yourself Swann, you don't have much time.

[House Baratheon]

We have 1h 15m left. If you want to defend yourself Swann, you don't have much time.

I know. I was reading. This doesn't look great but I'm going to give it a go. Typing now.

[House Mooton]

To put out some final thoughts as I don't expect to survive another day.

At this point, I trust Yarwyck and Harclay. Yarwyck has been probing and insightful all game without being needlessly provocative. I know this could cut both ways, but I am taking it at face value. The effort he put into the analysis and the line of attack he took (through symps) is impressive. Two things could shake my faith in him - one of Swann or Bracken coming up innocent. Not conclusive, but I would wonder. Probably not fair, but there it is. Second thing is more specific - If Swann comes up innocent, that Really Big Post then becomes a Really Big Question about his motives. Again, not fair and my suspicion would only be at Crazy Conspiracy level, not full on attack level.

I also trust Harclay. His reactions and reasoning have clicking with mine since the reveal. His top suspects are my top suspects and try as I might, I could never see Vyrwel as very suspicious.

Preferences for King (reverse order)

Cerwyn - under no circumstances. Just never

Bracken, Swann, Tarbeck - please no. I fear all of them

Vyrwel - lesser of evils. I would be ok with him

Yarwyck - yes please

Harclay - yes please

8 today, 6 tomorrow, 4 the next day, 2 the final day. We should (from my view) have enough innocent-ish people to last through to the end.

[House Baratheon]

Wow, that's the granddaddy of all cases, and when you lay it out that way a lot of it looks bad. (and some of it has just been misinterpreted).

I'm going to go through your summary because I don't have time to do anything else.

Conclusion

So…that’s it. Here’s a short summary:

1) Swann was the player most conscious of Grandison’s statement that a player with fewer than 7 posts would be lynched. He made an effort to get above that threshold.

I never answered your case because I never took it terribly seriously. Yes I only just tipped over the 7 post threshold, but my internet was dead all day and I only had a couple of hours to post in. Also, I would have to be an idiot to defiantly walk out with 6 posts only to panic and come back and make three more to protect myself. Like that would save me if Mina had really decided to punish someone for not contributing. Reyne's read on this was correct. I made six posts and realised I needed to go. I refreshed the page and noticed someone had said something related to my last post and so commented. I was certainly aware of my number of posts, but I didn't believe for a second that rule 2 would actually be applied, so however you might characterise me as scrambling. I made the posts I had time to.

2) Potential connection to Bracken.

- Starts day 2 by attacking Bracken for his “4 lynch options” list. Backs off for a bad reason. Instead shifts the argument toward Reyne.

Oh come on, Bracken's defense was enough to give me serious doubts that there was a connection between him and Qorgyle (and there wasn't). The move was blatant and something I consider it unlikely an FM would do. At the same time I realised that Reyne had done something which seemed far more scummy. So my attention shifted.

- Has made a few attempts to get the Bracken/Swann pairing off of our suspect lists on day 3 (as well as other pairings that include Bracken).

No argument. Though I genuinely believed I had solid reasons for all of them.

- At the end of day 2, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Qorgyle. Voted Bracken, but suggested that a Qorg lynch was also good. On day 3, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Tarbeck. Same exact thing happened – voted Bracken, but suggested that a Tarbeck lynch was also good. Looks like distancing combined with an attempt to push the lynch in another direction.

Your day 2 point is correct. I found them both reasonable choices and had trouble choosing between them. I was not confronted by a choice on day three, I put myself in the position. I could have manufactured that knockout final to go any way I wanted it. But, yes, I don't consider that there are any easy choices today and I'm suspicious of anyone who only has one suspect.

3) Contradiction – he stated in his day 2 case against Reyne/Qorgyle that Reyne was suspicious for not voting for Qorg (his top suspect) until King Grandison declared Qorg one of the final 2 options. Basically, he was saying that a FM would vote for his partner if his partner was a final 2 option. Later, he argued that the Bracken/Swann pairing should be removed from our suspect lists, because he had voted for Bracken when Bracken was a final 2 option. This is a blatant, self-serving contradiction.

No. Reyne was in a position where he'd been pushing Qorgyle all day. In a choice between Qorgyle and Dayne he couldn't legitimately make the other choice. I really hadn't railroaded myself into voting Bracken. If I'd chosen Qorgyle I don't think anyone would have thought it strange. My statement was that an FM would choose their partner in a final two unless forced to. Reyne was forced. I wasn't.

4) Casts a bandwagon vote on Cerwyn on day 1. Barely considers other suspects – just jumps on the most popular lynch mob.

Yeah. My day one was pretty bad. I can only plead lack of time to read.

5) He does his best to not provoke anybody throughout the game, unless his hand is forced. Also has wishy washy opinions.

Well, I provoked Reyne pretty hard. And I think I've gone after Tarbeck and Bracken today, but apparently not everyone agrees.

6) Attempts to undermine Reyne and Plumm as VPI after their reveals. Only gets on board with them being VPI after other people do. Also, suggests that Reyne should use the Ninja power. Only changes his mind after other people disagree.

Yep. I was genuinely skeptical about the whole business. Some of it was probably paranoia, and it took a while to settle that in my head.

With regard to Reyne's ninja. I believed he should use it (even if innocent) because I initially believed it would reduce the suspect pool and not lose us a day. When I realised that it would actually lose us a day (and I spent a fair bit of time going through that) I changed my mind completely.

7) Attempts to undermine my day 3 analysis. It doesn’t look great for him, so naturally he has problems with it. Note how he is both disagreeing with the analysis and also trying to use it. Even to the point where he says that he doesn’t want to vote based off the analysis…..and then he casts a vote for Vyrwel because of the analysis (another contradiction).

No. I can't really stress this enough. I intended to take your analysis and build on it and I want everyone to be aware of where the weaknesses in my logic were. I spent the whole day working a list that I grew out of what you started, the criticisms weren't directed at you but were cautions for people in considering what I was saying.

I apologise for this, I probably didn't post enough to show what I was doing. I also thought that it was clear that I suspected Bracken way before I voted him. Ever since my response to his "plan" I thought people knew I considered him a very probable FM if a symp was alive.

I also should have posted the list I created (and I will in a second) while doing my reread. I did give halfway, when Reyne posted his list and it became clear that he'd done more reading and his conclusions were more likely to be trusted anyway.

I'm going to post this now and try to write some conclusions.

[House Baratheon]

Reyne, if we get close to the end of the day, and there's no decision, just lynch me. I worked through some scenarios when I was thinking about your reveal and I'm convinced that going to night is worse for us than a lynch today.

[House Baratheon]

Here's were I got to with my partner analysis. The first is with symps, the second without.

Cerwyn Bracken/Tarbeck

Cerwyn Bracken/Yarwyck

Cerwyn Tarbeck/Yarwyck

Harclay Vyrwel/Yarwyck

Tarbeck Bracken/Yarwyck

Vyrwel Bracken/Harclay

Vyrwel Bracken/Yarwyck

Vyrwel Cerwyn/Harclay

Vyrwel Cerwyn/Yarwyck

Vyrwel Harclay/Yarwyck

Vyrwel Tarbeck/Yarwyck

Yarwyck Harclay/Tarbeck

Bracken/Harclay

Bracken/Tarbeck

Bracken/Yarwyck

Cerwyn/Harclay

Cerwyn/Tarbeck

Cerwyn/Yarwyck

Harclay/Tarbeck

Harclay/Vyrwel

Harclay/Yarwyck

Tarbeck/Yarwyck

Vyrwel/Yarwyck

[House Mooton]

FINAL ROUND!

TO THE DEATH!

As Bracken is pulling his sword free of Cerwyn's body, he notices Tarbeck and Swann heading toward him in lock step.

"I thought you two were matched up last round."

"Of course, but we have better plan now." Tarbeck says with a predatory smile on his face.

Bracken senses danger and brings up his sword, still bloody from his last kill, and slashes at Tarbeck's exposed neck, nearly decapitating him. Tarbeck's confidence means that he always fights lightly armored, and this proves to be his downfall.

Swann crouches in a defensive posture. "So now it is down to you, and it is down to me"

"It appears so"

"Then the melee battle has begun. We will find out who is right, and who is dead"

They proceed to exchange blows with much precision and cunning. Bracken cries 'a-ha' and switches his sword from his left hand to the right. Swann cries 'a-ha' and switches his sword too.

In the end, Swann gets in a skillfull blow and Bracken crumples like a child. Stepping over the body, Swann strides towards the King, eagerly awaiting his reward ...

(OK, reading Swann's defense right now)

[House Baratheon]

Some final thoughts. If I'm lynched I actually hope my death might do something to knock Yarwyck off his comfortable perch. Maybe not, his case was bias, and I'm sure he started it with the hope of finding me guilty, but it wasn't actually bad. Furthermore, I hope me flipping innocent won't clear Bracken in anyone's mind.

This is slightly frustrating, because I don't believe you're going to get much information from my death. No doubt it'll cut the partnership lists a bit, but that's only useful if there's a living symp.

[House Baratheon]

Further to the above. I'm trying to work out if this really reflects badly on Yarwyck. I was the only one expressing many doubts about him, but I don't think I was a terrible danger to him. His reread is biased, but doesn't actually look like a frame job. Definitely look at Harclay and Cerwyn, they both seem to have accepted Yarwyck's conclusions and then left. Harclay in particular agree with most of my reread points so he had reason to dispute some of what Yarwyck said.

[House Mooton]

Sorry, 20 minutes left and your defense is WIFOM. I am sympathetic to your final words, but they could just as easily be trying to sway me away from lynching you as I have been proven to be ... ahem ... somewhat gut driven.

-------

Swann kneels before King Reyne and accepts his laurels and a celebratory flagon of wine. Killing is thirsty work. He basks in the glory of the cheering crowd. He loses himself in thoughts of wealth, fame and women and becomes momentarily unaware of his surroundings. He manages to catch himself as he stumbles, but not before a small stream of wine spills out of his flagon. He watches with horror as it lands on the hem of Reyne's clean white robes. Shit - everyone knows King Reyne is a fickle bitch.

Execute: Swann

[House Baratheon]

Nothing to see here.

[House Mooton]

And now we wait.

[House Mooton]

OK, obviously I wasn't going to waste a day with no lynch, but really. I expected to at least get a majority vote at some point.

And apparently I am alone. Interesting.

I will say that it was a close call for me. I almost chose Bracken and had two scenarios written up to explain the execution of either of them. (even though Bracken was already apparently dead)

Even if Swann flips inno, I think Bracken should be a top choice for tomorrow's lynch. Bracken and Tarbeck would be my top 2.