Mafia 72.5 - Down In The Projects

[House Dondarrion]

Do I really have a reputation as being a lying coniving bitch?

Since I'm bad at alt-guessing, my answer is:

I don't care.

Sorry, but this game is about lying, especially when you're evil. Please don't try to give the impression that I'm somehow offending your honor by not taking your word. I'm just stating what you're supposed to do. Your job is not to be the friendly neighborhood serial killer. You're supposed to lie to us and to survive as long as possible. ;)

[House Corbray]

Since I'm bad at alt-guessing, my answer is:

I don't care.

Sorry, but this game is about lying, especially when you're evil. Please don't try to give the impression that I'm somehow offending your honor by not taking your word. I'm just stating what you're supposed to do. Your job is not to be the friendly neighborhood serial killer. You're supposed to lie to us and to survive as long as possible. ;)

I know and I am not actually offened (except by the Eddard Stark comment :P ) But I did tell the truth of who I killed and you know I did.

Yes, I want to stay alive. Why would I be arguning if I didn't? Winning was never in my thoughts since seeing my role. I am a realist. I also know my own limitations. I would prefer an innocent win to the killers winning as the write up says I want the killers dead. Plus, I just don't like killers much. :P

[House Dondarrion]

:laugh:

day 3:

9 players left (1 FM/1 SK/5 IN)

We lynch an innocent. The FM kill an innocent. The SK accidently kills an FM.

day 4:

6 players left (0 FM/1 SK/ 3 IN)

If we lynch the SK, the innocent win!

Corrected.

ETA:

D'Angelo, my Eddard Stark comment was directed at the innocents. You're LF in this game. :ph34r:

[House Tully]

Ok, I'm going to confess, I really shouldn't have signed up for this game. Like I said, when I signed up (thanks to a mod asking me to play via PM) I thought it would be starting maybe today or Friday, but not on mid-Tuesday. I don't want to be modkilled because that would hurt the innocents, but since people find me suspicious, I'm not really going to fight being lynched if you go for me. I apologize for not being around much. Work sucks. :worried:

Here was what I wanted to say on Day 1, but didn't--I was hoping everyone would forget about Cerwyn's Bible (I read my Bible daily :P) and that using the strategy to find mafia and FM after the first few days would work. The problem is, the SK has been caught now and that strategy relies on the mafia acting kind of boringly to avoid being killed by the SK, and the other way around. I've played several games in which that has been the case and got caught by CB as mafia once and used it to catch mafia in a two-team game so I'm fairly familiar with it...so phooey. Now that pretty much the only tool I knew how to use is gone, and I don't have time, I'm going to be pretty useless.

But all that being said, I'll vote for Greggs because her behavior from Day 1--which, since the SK hadn't revealed yet, can still have CB applied to it--fits in well with how an FM would play. Discussing strategy like how to use the SK as a tool (irony!) is really safe to do, makes you look useful, etc., but isn't sticking your neck out enough to make you look too helpful to the innocents and get you killed by the other faction.

ETA: Link to Cerwyn's Bible in Mafia Wiki, if you're unfamiliar with it.

[House Corbray]

ETA:

D'Angelo, my Eddard Stark comment was directed at the innocents. You're LF in this game. :ph34r:

:lmao: obviously, I see myself as honorable and trusting, maybe a little naïve. (Like Eddard, but at least I am fighting to keep my head.)

[House Redfort]

Eh? If we don't lynch D, then we either end up lynching an inno, in which case we have another person removed from the suspect pool and we know their posts were honest, or we lynch an FM, which would be better than lynching the known SK. Your argument makes no sense.

We must lynch the SK today or tomorrow. Allowing him to kill again is *pause for effect* MORONIC. The only chance the SK has of winning is having us screw up (quite possible) and then killing an innocent. How does that help us? Answer: it doesn't.

Meaning we have two choices:

D2: Choose from a pool of 10 (dead CIs=Freamon and Omar)

N2: Innocent gets nightkilled

D3: Lynch D

or

D2: Lynch D

N2: Innocent gets nightkilled (who knows what else may happen here, find/heal/etc.)

D3: Lynch from a pool of, most likely, 9 (3 dead CIs=Freamon, Omar, and N2 kill)

Do I need to continue hitting this poor dead horse or can I stop?

[House Tully]

And to anyone who is suspicious of this game including a vigilante: Really? Watch the show. If any game is a total fucking bloodbath, it should be this one.

[House Velaryon]

This is why I don't like Moreland - some similar points as Bubbles' case, but a bit more condensed.

Casting random votes to spread things out a bit - is this a common police tactic? :worried:

This is in response to Greggs' voting Bubbles for no reason. Who does he later vote? Bubbles. He gives his reasons (weak ones) but it looks like he forgot he questioned Greggs' earlier. When he does vote, he soft-sells it and gives himself an obvious out.

Ugh, I have no clear preference who to lynch right now. And I'm pretty tired.

I'm not behind the case againts D'Angelo. Why did he bother to point out that his vote was serious when his case was wishy-washy? I don't know if it's a contradiction at all. One can be seriously wishy-washy.

Who else?

Carver Daniels just saved his ass by returning in time and posting some useful stuff in the next few hours.

Bubbles hasn't contributed that much so far, has he? And he has probably stolen my i-Pad, too.

Reason enough to lay a serious vote on Bubbles.

Will be back in time (in about 6 hours) to switch my vote in a most opportunistic way.

Edit: confused Carver with Daniels

Granted, this is WIFOM, but he has a lot of WIFOM type arguements so far (i.e. FM wouldn't talk about the things I'm talking about)

I can't help, but I just have this picture of you as the agreeable killer guy in my mind. :unsure:

This was directed at Freamon. Could just as easily describe himself. During day 1 he'd been casting soft suspicion on Freamon based on gut rather than actions. Freamon called him on it and was combative - a possible reason for a Freamon kill, especially since no one was looking at Freamon but him.

I am also a bit wary of McNulty. My second reason for discussing the night targets was that both SK and FM would likely avoid to discuss this issue. The FM know that the SK exactly knows who they killed. And that causes paranoia, because everything they say can be picked up by the SK to identify the FM - and vice versa, of course.

This is the WIFOM discussion I referenced earlier.

I also don't like that he used Freamon's suspicions to frame several people, and then brings up the possibility that D lied. If you're going to use Freamon's death as evidence, fine. I might disagree with the strength of that evidence, but don't weaken it further by saying, of course this might not be true. Sowing too much confusion and suspicion everywhere.

Having said that, I mostly have a bad feeling about him, but still feel stronger about Greggs at this point.

Another quick point - people didn't like Moreland fishing for roles. Avon was doing that too when Stringer hinted last night. Not so obviously, but he wanted to discuss it. Point against him. I didn't really follow his explanation about a vote swing.

[House Dondarrion]

Except that behind these alts are real people, and D seems to have gone past the point of caring about his own faction and is willing to help team innocent, even though that might not be what his pm tells him to do. I certainly won't be voting him today, and probably not after that - he's too big a potential asset to be given up lightly. I was suspicious of you yesterday Moreland, and I stand by that. This insistence that we should after all lynch D also strikes me as scumm as that is exactly what the FM will want right now. And I like Bubbles' case on you. Sorry about the low activity too, folks, but i think i am within modkill limit.

Ok, Daniels is off my suspect list. I can't see an FM defending the SK in a manner like this. Daniels would have to explain a lot if he'd change his stance suddenly tomorrow.

D'Angelo is right in one thing. It is de facto in the best interest of the FM to get rid of the SK. One of the D'Angelo lynch supporters should be in the FM camp. I guess the other one isn't.

[House Tully]

Another quick point - people didn't like Moreland fishing for roles. Avon was doing that too when Stringer hinted last night. Not so obviously, but he wanted to discuss it. Point against him. I didn't really follow his explanation about a vote swing.

I actually wasn't fishing for roles at all, you're totally not going to believe me on this, but I've played enough games where people are like, "I have a crazy idea: Let's lynch someone with only 1 vote on them 20 minutes before the lynch deadline, here's a case," and then people try to do just that, that I was expecting that to happen again. <_<

[House Corbray]

D'Angelo is right

I think I will frame this. :P

Have to go for a while, and as I said, I will vote with the majority (when I return.* )

*unless of course the majority want to lynch me. :eek:

[House Redfort]

*unless of course the majority want to lynch me. :eek:

Seppuku would be an honorable death for you. Consider it. :)

[House Dondarrion]

I'm really getting sick to discuss the point of role fishing. Pointing out something obvious to evaluate the chances of D'Angelo being an SK, a BP or being healed is in no way role fishing. After the vig reveal it was crystalclear that we have a NK-preventing role, and even before it was almost a given.

Going to further respond to Bubbles' and Rawls' cases soon.

[House Velaryon]

We must lynch the SK today or tomorrow. Allowing him to kill again is *pause for effect* MORONIC.

I mostly agree.

I was trying to run numbers, but then realized I am bad at it :(. If we hit an FM today, do we have enough breathing room to let D kill again? He cannot be allowed to have 2 more kills, but would it be to our advantage to let him cut the suspect pool once? Thinking about odd/even etc?

If we don't hit an FM today, then yes. He has to go, no question.

[House Velaryon]

I actually wasn't fishing for roles at all, you're totally not going to believe me on this, but I've played enough games where people are like, "I have a crazy idea: Let's lynch someone with only 1 vote on them 20 minutes before the lynch deadline, here's a case," and then people try to do just that, that I was expecting that to happen again. <_<

But the day had already ended. That and Stringer didn't actually try that, so ... still not getting you, sorry.

[House Redfort]

If we don't hit an FM today, then yes. He has to go, no question.

My point is that we'll have a better chance of getting an FM tomorrow than today. It may not be *that* much more information, but it is enough to be worthwhile. I also don't want to risk any kind of nonsense going on that would cause people to be dumb and decide to not lynch D tomorrow. There is no limit to the stupidity that can happen in these games (I very much include myself when I speak of this).

[House Tully]

But the day had already ended. That and Stringer didn't actually try that, so ... still not getting you, sorry.

All I'm saying is that when he said he missed voting because of some crazy plan, I thought he had a long post prepared that was going to suggest that. That's all.

[House Velaryon]

I think I answered my own question about advantage. If we do hit an FM today and let D kill, then worst case by Day 4 we are at 6 (1FM 1SK 4IN) We have to lynch D at this point or we end up at Day 5 with (1FM 1SK 2IN) - innos screwed.

If we do lynch D on Day 4, then it looks like this -

Day 4 - 1FM 1SK 4IN

lynch SK, innocent dies

Day 5 - 1FM 3IN - this looks good actually. Am I missing something? I need to check other scenarios to see what Day 5 looks like and compare.

[House Velaryon]

All I'm saying is that when he said he missed voting because of some crazy plan, I thought he had a long post prepared that was going to suggest that. That's all.

That I can buy.

[House Dondarrion]

All quotes are copied from this post by Bubbles

I don't like his confidence in the careless innocent theory. He seems too sure.

I like my confidence, because it's based on evidence. And logic. Why would an FM make two mistakes that draw the attention of others?

1) He made it on purpose

2) He made it unintentional

Logic tells us it's number 2. And if that's so these mistakes tell us nil about Greggs guilt. Either she's an FM who unintentionally said something stupid or she's an innocent doing the same. That's why I can be damn sure that these mistakes are no sign of guilt. And since FM usually are a bit mor careful about their posts, she's rather likely innocent based on these mistakes alone.

Cocky bad guy?

Pointing out bad innocent play.

Serious vote without the serious bit really isn't it?

Pushing a low poster

It helps.

Really!

This post creeps me out, it's him I tell you, him

:P

I realise the fact that it's me he's talking about me may tar my view on this, but I hadn't been around at all. Working and sleeping like I said. So why does he assume I was around. It's a cop out answer and a lie to boot.

You had been around to make some posts. And you have been more around than the other low flyers. Long enough for me to remember your name.

If Moreland is FM, of course he's going to say this, he's pretty much saying hey, I willing to talk about it, look how innocent I am. Smells fishy.

:blink:

No comment.

Now speculating about evil roles, perhaps he's realised his earlier role fishing may look bad and wants to make sure he covers both angles to look less nasty.

And I felt honoured by being treated as an evil genius, and now you say I made mistakes? :o

Perhaps I'm an innocent who likes to cover both angles to stir discussion and to clear the picture. :dunno:

Is he feeling paranoid? Is that why he feels the need to go on with this line of thought.

This refers to my theory of FM not being willing to talk about their kills. I still think my argument is valid and can be used as some sort of filter to find the FM. At least one of them.

Btw, when being evil I'm not feeling paranoid.

Almighty, yes, that's the better description.

A reread of Freamon is something an FM would have to do anyway, to make sure they're not implicated. A convenient choice for an investigation if you're FM, killing two birds with one stone as they say.

Which is why you surely made already a reread of Freamon yourself, as you don't want an FM to be the sole source of wisdom. :P

Aww, he's so nice, but is this a recruitment drive?

Give credit where credit is due. of course, I would have smacked Stringer if he had killed an innocent.

Would have been interesting if no-one had picked up on that little boo boo. D'Angelo is known for what he is. As the numbers decrease he will become more valuable. If we have another reveal later on he may tip the balance by reducing the voting pool. I am not big on analysis but I can see a benefit in having him around for bit if he behaves.

This point has been proven wrong by now.

A little panicky here and directing the blame for his mishap elsewhere, not so nice.

I guess that's what they called "snarky". Dude, if you're innocent don't try to sound like Dr Evil, k? (doesn't help when you're evil, too)