Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

House Targaryen

AGOT Mafia Game n= May 2011.

Recommended Posts

I meant "night" is not so dumb idea after all.

I am not a newb just as the majority of players here. I admit we have great hunters, but killers most likely are expirienced too.

The Mathematics tells that best strategy is to skip this lynch.

All of your calculations completely dismiss the possibility of a healer/guard gaining us an extra lynch at any point in the game (aside from the final day). That's a huge point against going to night on day 1. It's not just about a healer/guard buying us an extra lynch tonight. It's from this point forward. If we drop down to an odd number now, we lose that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Welcome to Westeros, Sotty Sooty!

Why did you pick Sooty to welcome to the game, out of all the new players? I think there are 5 or 6 of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi.

about probabilities: they can help us just if we play a big amount of games and we need to win in as big part of them as it possible.

but in one single game probabilities cant help us and not hanging people up brings to killers the possibility to live more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SGB:

The difference in win percentage between your 14 and 13 player scenarios is less than 10%.

Isn't the chance of a healer hitting (on any of the nights) higher than that?

I suck at probability so I won't attempt to do the math myself, but it hardly seems fair to quibble over percentage points while entirely discarding the possibility of a heal/guard/modkill.

@ Wonder Woman:

Only killers fear healer/guard and eager for modkills.

Just saying.

What exactly are you 'just saying'? WW didn't say anything about fearing the healer/guard. He said that the possibility should be factored in.

So why are you implying that he is afraid of those roles?

And more importantly, do you disagree that they should be included in the analysis?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why did you pick Sooty to welcome to the game, out of all the new players? I think there are 5 or 6 of them.

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Simba from day 1.

Why do you ask? Why it's important?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Simba from day 1.

Why do you ask? Why it's important?

That should be obvious. I ask to get an answer. Whether or not it's important depends on the answer, and where that leads.

Is there a reason why you want to restrict me from asking questions? To steal your line - why do you care? Why is it important?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey everybody.

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Simba from day 1.

Why do you ask? Why it's important?

Why are you questioning why Simba is questioning? Aren't we supposed to question, Joseph Starlin? Your mustache is hypnotic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That should be obvious. I ask to get an answer. Whether or not it's important depends on the answer, and where that leads.

Is there a reason why you want to restrict me from asking questions? To steal your line - why do you care? Why is it important?

hmmmm

are you nervouse? do questions asked by Joseph Starlin make you feel irritated?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The second cute cat.

Garfield, why are you questioning why smbdy is qustioning why smbdy is questioning?

:dunno: Seemed like the popular thing to do around here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:dunno: Seemed like the popular thing to do around here.

yeah, to me, we should set up a club of people questioning other why they are questioning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Simba from day 1.

Why do you ask? Why it's important?

seriously?

one player signals out another and you don't find that suspicious?

edit: player/not play

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Simba from day 1.

Well, it's one of posts which make me wanting to lynch Joseph Starlin from day 1.

I know it's been years since I saw you guys play - I don't think the games were in the 30s yet the last time I played - and people change, but your day one behavior hasn't seemed quite right to me. Yeah, we throw shit at each other and see what sticks. But you aren't throwing shit. You're throwing Advanced Fecal Substitute - even less substance than the real thing.

First, your vote on me just because of your 'read' or 'vibes', which is within bounds for a first day post - but doesn't really mean anything. It doesn't push me to respond because it doesn't raise any issues.

But then, at a complete newbie, who has posted essentially nothing, just saying "What can you say in your defense" - that is nothing. That is just giving the appearance of joining in the mudslinging. Find some content - or invent it! - to prod someone about and that actually can provoke discussion.

And now, you come at Simba again - who has, unlike Dragon at the time you prodded him, posted some things of relevance - with a non-problem.

:dunno: I don't know, maybe prodding Simba isn't the scummiest thing to do, but WIFOM at that. I think you look kind of dirty, Joe.

BTW: The board is having some issues, it seems - I almost lost this post - remember to write posts in Notepad or something so the board doesn't eat them!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So why are you implying that he [WW] is afraid of those roles?

And more importantly, do you disagree that they should be included in the analysis?

Well, she he kind of understand what I meant to say. See -> emoticon :rolleyes: .

However, Humpty Dumpty said something like this before too. Now you.

I disagree. Guard are weak, extremely weak role unless we get rid of 1 or 2 killers. Healer is weak too. They could intervene and that brings us bonus lynch but it is quite unlikely imo.

Even if they do it once they can do it twice. They = all possible combination of protect/block/modkill.

Only point against "night" was: "We will not achieve possible bonus lynch from Healer".

And it's weak because 1)there could be no healer nor guard 2)it unlikely to happen 3)even if it happen, it could happen twice 4)even if it happen it will be rather good anyways (Example: we go night, then no kill. Result: status quo with 14 players, buuuut healer got an info and we have bonus time for discussion).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a reason why you want to restrict me from asking questions? To steal your line - why do you care? Why is it important?

Because, knowing you rather well, I think you ask questions of this kind only when you are guilty. When you are innocent, you usually find better points to investigate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×