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Senta Signora

Surviving the Winter

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I see a major problem with the peasant classes during this winter. I fully expect riots, revolts and outright rebellion against many of the lords. The Citadel might see this as a great way to take power. If they want to rid the world of magic, eliminating the old royal familes French Revolution style might be a "good" start or perhaps the more prudent route of going to a Constitutional Monarchy with a Cromwell figure (Littlefinger would fit that role pretty well I think). Of course I also see women taking a much more prominent role in public life as well by the end of the series, but can't find a way to tie that in here.

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I see a major problem with the peasant classes during this winter. I fully expect riots, revolts and outright rebellion against many of the lords. The Citadel might see this as a great way to take power. If they want to rid the world of magic, eliminating the old royal familes French Revolution style might be a "good" start or perhaps the more prudent route of going to a Constitutional Monarchy with a Cromwell figure (Littlefinger would fit that role pretty well I think). Of course I also see women taking a much more prominent role in public life as well by the end of the series, but can't find a way to tie that in here.

Those advances rarely come out of thin air...the closest thing we have seen to a democracy or a constitutional regime is Volantis, and the only people with voting rights there are slave-owning landholders, which are the closest thing to lords that you can find in the east...and you also have to think of Westeros´ size: the earliest democratic regimes where small city-states with powerful non-noble minorities (merchants, seafarers, bankers, non-noble landholders...) and a sizeable middle class.

Even if there is some sort of revolution, I don´t think the westerosi would be able to build a political system more advanced than an elective monarchy like those of the visigoths or the medieval Holy Empire, with only the most powerful lords being able to vote.

A Magna Carta like that the english lords imposed on John the Landless, yes, that I can see, but that wouldn´t benefit most people at all, and wouldn´t have much to do with the people rebelling against the lords, but with the lords taking advantage of a weak crown.

If people revolt against their lords, there will probably a period of anarchy, until some of the more powerful warlords (old nobles or rebel leaders, it doesn´t matter) manage to seize control by brute force and start the lordship system again.

Even if the maesters manage to control the rebellion (and it would be difficult, since they are strongly aligned with the lords, and would become targets for the people´s rage; the septons could take control more easily) they would probably impose some form of dictatorship, with their own leaders on top; they seem pretty elitist to me.

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Those advances rarely come out of thin air...the closest thing we have seen to a democracy or a constitutional regime is Volantis, and the only people with voting rights there are slave-owning landholders, which are the closest thing to lords that you can find in the east...and you also have to think of Westeros´ size: the earliest democratic regimes where small city-states with powerful non-noble minorities (merchants, seafarers, bankers, non-noble landholders...) and a sizeable middle class.

Even if there is some sort of revolution, I don´t think the westerosi would be able to build a political system more advanced than an elective monarchy like those of the visigoths or the medieval Holy Empire, with only the most powerful lords being able to vote.

A Magna Carta like that the english lords imposed on John the Landless, yes, that I can see, but that wouldn´t benefit most people at all, and wouldn´t have much to do with the people rebelling against the lords, but with the lords taking advantage of a weak crown.

If people revolt against their lords, there will probably a period of anarchy, until some of the more powerful warlords (old nobles or rebel leaders, it doesn´t matter) manage to seize control by brute force and start the lordship system again.

Even if the maesters manage to control the rebellion (and it would be difficult, since they are strongly aligned with the lords, and would become targets for the people´s rage; the septons could take control more easily) they would probably impose some form of dictatorship, with their own leaders on top; they seem pretty elitist to me.

The Maester conspiracy (which I'm a firm believer will play a central role in coming events), is just one possibility i threw out there. My main point is that you're gonna see lower class revolts that make Joffrey's ride through KL look like homecoming celebration. That leading to a complete overhaul is of course, much less likely.

Back to the maesters, I'm assuming this is an old conspiracy with many arms. What we know is that Marwyn doesn't trust any other archmaesters with magical rumors, they want a world free of superstition. Whether they go to a more equal society or start a line of Philosopher Kings, who knows. The great houses would then get maesters devoted to the Citadel's cause more then anything. Some will screw up, but they seem a patient group. Here's Marwyn on the obsidian candle:

"The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions"

There's a chance that many of the premonitions we see in the book so far come from the Citadel, and with things getting only worse in Westeros I don't think you can simply look at medieval England for why things won't happen (not that you were).

Also I don't see a Holy Roman Empire type of government forming, if GRRM was interested in that he would've made Western Essos more then just a collection of Free Cities.

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The Maester conspiracy (which I'm a firm believer will play a central role in coming events), is just one possibility i threw out there. My main point is that you're gonna see lower class revolts that make Joffrey's ride through KL look like homecoming celebration. That leading to a complete overhaul is of course, much less likely.

Back to the maesters, I'm assuming this is an old conspiracy with many arms. What we know is that Marwyn doesn't trust any other archmaesters with magical rumors, they want a world free of superstition. Whether they go to a more equal society or start a line of Philosopher Kings, who knows. The great houses would then get maesters devoted to the Citadel's cause more then anything. Some will screw up, but they seem a patient group. Here's Marwyn on the obsidian candle:

"The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions"

There's a chance that many of the premonitions we see in the book so far come from the Citadel, and with things getting only worse in Westeros I don't think you can simply look at medieval England for why things won't happen (not that you were).

Also I don't see a Holy Roman Empire type of government forming, if GRRM was interested in that he would've made Western Essos more then just a collection of Free Cities.

I think there will be a commoner revolt, but it will be fueled and guided by the Faith Militant, not the Citadel.

There is (or rather, there once was) probably a Citadel conspirancy to end both magic and dragons (those are two things that are difficult to counter or control, and give too much power to a single individual), and the Maesters have obviously manouvered to put themselves in a position where they can pull a lot of strings, whisper in all important people´s ears and learn a lot of secrets, so they probably have their own power play, but nowadays they seem to lack direction, leadership or drive; the current ruling council seem pretty content with the present state of affairs, and they seem to take sides with one lord or another (Pycelle is pro-Lannister, his potential replacement is pro-Tyrell -that´s the main reason Tywin and Cersei kept Pycelle -and Cressen and Luwin seem loyal to their lords...etc.).

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