House Mooton Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Quick post to say that I'm reading the thread and should be able to keep up with everything, but I doubt I'll have much time to participate for a while. There was a reason why I didn't sign up originally...I'm pretty busy right now, and have a ton of stuff I need to do at work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 3) Ambrose, Ball, Harlaw, Inchfield, Swann.What is it about Inchfield and Harlaw in particular you trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Reread Overton, which was not hard. I'm not going to have links this time you'll just have to take my word for it.Overton is brief. Very brief. He doesn't make cases or anything resembling cases. He mainly comments on the popular subject of the time, and votes for the 'low hanging fruit' as Harlaw would say.There is something to be said for his brevity however. He makes good points/points I'd probably be thinking myself were I in his shoes. He takes strong stands when he does make a stand.No huge wiff of evil, just a possible faint breeze. Overton, I know you're busy with your ADWD reading, but could you please provide us with something to go off of today. Namely, more thoughts on players other than me.Heck, you can even go with me, just make your case more than two sentences long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Is it even worth me doing more rereads? I was really hoping people would be around to discuss more today than they appear to be.I already see how this is going to go down. Times going to run out, I'm going be lynched --without any other possibilities even discussed-- and no ones even going to bother to go back and read any of this stuff tomorrow.Right now not having done my rereads on them yet, Inchfield, Kenning --mainly for his odd placement of Inchfield and Harlaw on his tiers-- and Florent are my top suspects. Harlaw I could see fitting the symp role, but I'm not convinced there is a symp.Also in the spirit of getting everything out on the table, I do have some doubts about Swann. Like why is everyone taking it for granted that he's a competent n00b instead of a n00b being coached? Isn't that a direction our collective mind usually wanders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 What is it about Inchfield and Harlaw in particular you trust?Well, I like their logic. I see them as players who actually try to solve this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Well, I like their logic. I see them as players who actually try to solve this game.Can you provide examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Harlaw I could see fitting the symp role, but I'm not convinced there is a symp.Er, didn't you say previously there can't be a symp? What a reason for a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Can you provide examples?No, sorry. If I had time to reread, I'd reread totally different players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Is it even worth me doing more rereads? I was really hoping people would be around to discuss more today than they appear to be.What you need to look for (in addition to general behavior) is contradictions. Try to find a place where the player said one thing, and then changed his position later, without much explanation. Doesn't always work out, but when you can find something like that, its often a very useful clue.Right now not having done my rereads on them yet, Inchfield, Kenning --mainly for his odd placement of Inchfield and Harlaw on his tiers-- and Florent are my top suspects.Why am I one of your top suspects?Also in the spirit of getting everything out on the table, I do have some doubts about Swann. Like why is everyone taking it for granted that he's a competent n00b instead of a n00b being coached? Isn't that a direction our collective mind usually wanders?Yeah I don't like that either. People are giving him a pass for being new, when we've seen a lot of new players get the FM role in the past few games. If people want to cross Swann off the suspect list, they need a better reason than him being a new player. Especially when he's actively talking about being new - he could easily be trying to use that to his own advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Er, didn't you say previously there can't be a symp? What a reason for a change?I never said there can't be a symp, I said I don't believe there's a symp in this game just as I don't believe the FM is a team of 3.That does actually bring up another point I wanted to make. Harlaw seems rather convinced that the FM team consists of three people. Why then does he already seem to have the course of lynching me, then Ambrose set in his mind?It would be in his best interest to look over other possibilities today if we're that close to end game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Why am I one of your top suspects?It's just the way my list is shaping up right now:Harlaw is a bit more aggressive than I'd expect a FM to be (though I'm still going to reread him to make sure)Despite Overton's brevity, he's actually moved down a tier.Ball I'm more or less convinced is innocent.Despite my worries about Swann I still tend to think he's innocent.My one big blind spot right now is Ambrose. PI in my mind, but someone needs to reread him/make a case against him before LYLO, it's just not going to be me. That leaves an ever shrinking pool of suspects. If it makes you feel better, Inchfield is ahead of you in my suspicions.ETA:Kenning - I thought I'd post this and I'd see a new post by you where you answered my question. What's the hold up?Nevermind. Come on, give me anything. I'm not asking for quotes. Paraphrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I never said there can't be a symp, I said I don't believe there's a symp in this game just as I don't believe the FM is a team of 3.You don't believe there is a symp, but you still suggest a possibility of Harlaw being a symp. Too bad, Yarwyck. I liked you and tried to trust you as long as I could, but now I have no choice but to agree with Harlaw. You look extremely bad now, mostly because of your own efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I actually went to the mafia discussion board and looked through a bunch of Piper's posts and old games that he modded.In games with 10 players or less, he sticks to 2 FM and no symp. In games with 13 players or more, he usually has 2 FM + symp (or more). Games with 11 or 12 players are a mixed bag. From what I could tell, he seemed to favor 2 FM with somewhat limited roles on the innocent side, but he did have one 11 player all-roles game that included a symp.Also, I found a post where he said 3 FM is way too much in a 12 player game. Now, 3 FM is different from 2 FM + symp, but 12 players is also more than 11 and the post was worded in a very strong way. And there was one post where he mentioned that Pless thinks the balance should start by giving the FM 75% odds of winning. Not sure if thats true, but he claimed to have calculated that 2 FM is therefore perfect balance in a 12 player game (according to Pless' supposed balance guideline).Personally, I'm still pretty doubtful that we have a symp in this game. Unless maybe we have a lot of good roles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 It is day 2.10 players remain: Ambrose, Ball, Cassel, Florent, Harlaw, Inchfield, Kenning, Overton, Swann, Yarwyck6 votes are needed for a conviction or 5 to go to night.1 vote Ambrose (Swann)2 votes Yarwyck (Harlaw, Kenning)7 non-voters (Ambrose, Ball, Cassel, Florent, Inchfield, Overton, Yarwyck)approx. 12 hours remain in day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Yeah I don't like that either. People are giving him a pass for being new, when we've seen a lot of new players get the FM role in the past few games. Actually, the only ones going in the direction "he's new, so that explains what he's doing, he more likely is innocent", were Yarwick and Ambrose. And Ambrose I think had some other reasons for crossing me off his list. I commented on that earlier.Everyone else stated that I'm new, but still very well could be evil. I've been up to 4 votes at some point yesterday, after all. As for coaching, I couldn't have been coached yesterday, could I? If I understood correctly, FM are allowed to talk to each other at night and there hadn't been one then. Am I wrong about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If I understood correctly, FM are allowed to talk to each other at night and there hadn't been one then. Am I wrong about that?Evidently.So swannish.FM are allowed to talk to each other any time, at day and at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Mooton Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Actually, the only ones going in the direction "he's new, so that explains what he's doing, he more likely is innocent", were Yarwick and Ambrose. And Ambrose I think had some other reasons for crossing me off his list. I commented on that earlier.Everyone else stated that I'm new, but still very well could be evil. I've been up to 4 votes at some point yesterday, after all. As for coaching, I couldn't have been coached yesterday, could I? If I understood correctly, FM are allowed to talk to each other at night and there hadn't been one then. Am I wrong about that?:lol: :rolleyes:Yes, you are wrong about that. You are either going for the most blatant "I am new, don't suspect me!" defense ever, or you are innocent. I really hope its the latter. Because the former would be a somewhat very underhanded attempt to manipulate us using meta-evidence that has nothing to do with the actual game.ETA - Thought about it for a second, and yeah...I'd be pretty annoyed if you turned out to be evil, after making a post like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 You don't believe there is a symp, but you still suggest a possibility of Harlaw being a symp. Too bad, Yarwyck. I liked you and tried to trust you as long as I could, but now I have no choice but to agree with Harlaw. You look extremely bad now, mostly because of your own efforts.Either there's a miscommunication here or you were just looking for an excuse to switch sides in the argument. Please tell my I'm not the only one who found this post suspicious. I am saying that I see Harlaw's actions as more befitting of a symp than a FM. In other words, I'm less convinced of his inherent evilness, than that he's a dangerous, misguided innocent. That said, am I ruling out the possibility that there's a symp in this game? No. I doubt it, but I never ruled it out. Show me where I did.And also, at risk of sounding OMGUSish, Kenning. You'll be my next reread.ETA: *sigh* not again. I'll wait to see what my reread reveals before I revote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Sunglass Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 ETA - Thought about it for a second, and yeah...I'd be pretty annoyed if you turned out to be evil, after making a post like that.Well, I won't see such a move as dishonest, even if Swann is evil. But I think he have to be a genius to invent it if evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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