GOT Mafia 80

[House Dayne]

We either have a secret hidden role, a time travelling Targaryen or a poorly thought through roleclaim, disguised as a "what's happening here?" based on a half remembered role that was actually from the last game.

You are a friendly innocent. The mods have given you the worst possible role. You sure wish somebody else knew you were an innocent, though. One night only (and only on Night 1 or Night 2), you may PM the mods with the name of another living player. That morning, unless you are blocked by some other role, the mods will PM that player to let them know that you are a member of the innocent faction. Note that if you do not use your power by day 3, you will not be able to use it at all for the rest of the game.

So we either believe it, or we believe that Overton is either evil or symping Ball.

[House Mooton]

We either have a secret hidden role, a time travelling Targaryen or a poorly thought through roleclaim, disguised as a "what's happening here?" based on a half remembered role that was actually from the last game.

So we either believe it, or we believe that Overton is either evil or symping Ball.

Yeah...I knew I heard something similar before. Hmm.

Side note - either way, Ball is now CI. Either Overton is the last evil player (in which case Ball has to be innocent) or Overton is innocent and telling the truth (in which case Ball is obviously innocent).

Though....I guess there is one other possibility. Like I said before, while I don't believe that we have a symp, Overton does fit as a symp to Inchfield. Could he be a symp to Ball too?

But if he is, then why bother with all of this? Its not as if Ball was in danger today - none of us were planning on lynching him.

The only way it really makes sense is if we start down the path of a pretty convoluted plan by Overton. Crazy theory - he's symp to Inchfield/Ball. Inch is dead, and he sees that Ball is going to be modkilled soon. He knows that his team can only win if we lynch incorrectly today, and both he and Ball live to see day 5 (the final 4 players left). So he decides to fake claim in a way that sends a very clear message to Ball that he is the symp (lying about Ball being innocent lets Ball know that Overton has to be his symp). From that point forward, Ball knows to not vote for Overton and to not kill Overton at night. They both survive until day 5 and win the game.

Umm...yeah. That's my trip down the path of crazy paranoia. Still think we should probably just come out of this thinking Ball is innocent. And I still think we don't actually have a symp in this game.

Either way, we definitely shouldn't lynch Ball today. If we're going to decide that Overton is lying, then we lynch Overton today and wait for Ball to be modkilled down the road.

[House Mooton]

edit: so it appears that it's also possible for a player to have a role that's not on the list? I mean it looks like a limited finder or a limited twin, but still

Why do you think that? I'm still under the impression that the role has to be on the list. Its just that the player may not necessarily know at the start of the game if he has a role.

Does something in the rules indicate otherwise?

[House Corbray]

Why do you think that? I'm still under the impression that the role has to be on the list. Its just that the player may not necessarily know at the start of the game if he has a role.

Does something in the rules indicate otherwise?

Yes, but this role doesn't exactly fit neither with description of twins nor with the one of a finder, and i can't see any other roles that look like something Overton has told us.

[House Mooton]

Okay, so lets piece this together.

At some point, Overton has a dream about Ball being innocent. Overton doesn't say exactly which night, so lets try to figure it out. It has to be on night 1, 2, or 3.

I think I am a twin. Either that or some kind of strange limited finder or something. The wording was ambiguous and I was told I was a regular Archmaester at the begining of the game. I was told Ball is innocent in a 'dream'.

ETA- Ball? You been dreaming?

On a later night (night 3), Overton asks if he can dream about Cassel. The mods don't give him a dream.

I asked the mods if I could dream about cassel last night. I didn't dream, so I think I'm probably a twin.

and no damn clue what triggered it.

So now we know that Overton's dream about Ball had to occur on night 1 or 2. And Overton gives us the exact time of the PM that included the dream - 12:25 a.m. central time -

1- yes

2-yes

3-yes. I dreamed of Balls :)

4- 12:25 am central time (GMT-6)

ETA- Sorry to drop this and run, but I have to go for a few hours. Maybe you guys can help me make sense of it, if Ball isn't my twin I have no idea what is going on.

Night 1 lasted from 3:59 pm to 4:36 pm central time. No way a message would be sent at 12:25 am.

Night 2 lasted from 10:42 pm to 11:25 pm central time. I guess a message could have been sent at 12:25 am. Though it is pretty strange that the mods would still be sending night-related messages an hour after starting the day.

But lets just roll with it for a second. Assume that Overton knew that Ball was innocent on day 3. Why would he re-read Ball at that point?

Ok. Midway though a reread of Ball. Going slow. Trackpad and typing not easy with one hand and sleepy head.

And he actually goes through the re-read in this post.

His conclusion -

Conclusion:

This is Ball’s second game. He has limited internet access or free time and is sincerely frustrated that he doesn’t have any smoking gun suspects or more time to devote to the game. I can relate. Lots of weirdness. Weirdness isn't always bad. Far from CI, but I feel pretty good about him.

I guess I'm just not sure that "far from CI, but I feel pretty good about him" is strong enough for somebody who knows Ball is innocent.

Also, why would Overton go through all of that effort in the first place, if he already knows Ball's alignment. Its not as if Overton has done a lot of re-reads in this game. He seems intelligent, but also kind of lazy in terms of making cases. Is he really going to post a long overview of a player who he already knows is innocent? Why bother, if he's not even going to finish with a very persuasive "Ball is innocent!" conclusion? Why not spend his time focused on looking for suspects instead?

I don't know - seems very strange. Overton, can you explain any of this?

Now, all of that said, I will note that this sounds like somebody who knows something about Ball, and is frustrated -

After Ball announced she was going to be mod killed I just needed a break.

Of course, that apparent frustration could fit with Overton's role claim, or it could also fit with my crazy paranoid theory about Overton being a symp to Ball.

[House Corbray]

Yes, it is actually strange... On the other hand, if Overton was evil, why wouldn't he make sure that the time fits in well with his theory? It's not like anyone was pressuring him much. O.o

[House Mooton]

Yes, it is actually strange... On the other hand, if Overton was evil, why wouldn't he make sure that the time fits in well with his theory? It's not like anyone was pressuring him much. O.o

Out of curiosity - when exactly will you no longer be able to post? How many hours from now?

[House Corbray]

Out of curiosity - when exactly will you no longer be able to post? How many hours from now?

Well, it's the end of Sunday here now, so I have one more day, but as I'm leaving very early on Tuesday, I'd probably go to sleep earlier... But around 24 hours anyway.

[House Sunglass]

Gah!

Trouble is that I fully expected evil Overton to claim healer at this point.

Everybody else confirmed they aren't healer, so there won't be any counterclaim.

But he claimed some comedy of a role instead. Why?

He is either completely crazy or telling truth.

Harlaw.

[House Dayne]

The more I think about it, the more it seems Overton must just be crazy.

The problem? He could be a crazy innocent or a crazy killer.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

6 players remain: Ball, Cassel, Florent, Harlaw, Kenning, Overton

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Harlaw (Cassel, Kenning)

4 players haven't voted yet (Ball, Florent, Harlaw, Overton)

[House Mooton]

The more I think about it, the more it seems Overton must just be crazy.

The problem? He could be a crazy innocent or a crazy killer.

Crazy innocent? Are you saying that you think he's lying, regardless of his alignment? Why would an innocent lie about something like this?

[House Corbray]

Don't really see a reason for an evil Overton to make up something like this without even making sure that his claim looks completely (or as completely as it may be) viable. And he wasn't even suspected much...So I just can't see the point. Though what Florent's found out about the timing is indeed weird, unless there's a some kind of misunderstanding.

And Harlaw actually seems worse then before to me after his latest post. Yeah, I know that such a rapid change in the attitude after Kenning's post might be coincidental, but still looks suspicious to me.

[House Dayne]

Crazy innocent? Are you saying that you think he's lying, regardless of his alignment? Why would an innocent lie about something like this?

The usual reason would be "because they are Piper", but he's a mod...

[House Dayne]

I have good news. The idea of a Ball - Overton teamup are totally unfounded. In fact, they are outright impossible.

Why? There are two votes on me. If they are teamed (partners via a promotable symp or just master and symp) then they have the 2 votes needed to kill me. Overton would have voted me, allowing Ball to hammer. At that point they can both vote for night tomorrow and it's game, set and match.

The fact that they haven't (plus the fact you all argued earlier that 2 evils is more likely than 3, and we got one) means that we can put that conspiracy to the side for now and call Ball a CI. Overton doesn't win PI, let alone VPI or CI though.

Overton waited until everyone had claimed "not healer" before CIing Ball. This ensured we didn't have 2-3 CIs today. It made it safe to CI Ball as a killer. After all, without the healer we only have 1 CI (Ball) who will then die tonight.

This makes Overton's claim seem truer. Makes us less likely to lynch him tomorrow.

It was a fine gamble.

[House Dayne]

And yes, this insight has come to me in the same kind of flash of brilliance that led me to know that Yarwyck is evil. So... :leaving:

[House Dayne]

Oh, and if anyone is looking to add a vote to me, don't quite yet. It'd allow a hammer. I'm working on a case. Even if you DO lynch me today, give me an hour first. Or half hour. Or however long it takes to make my next post. :P

edit: That said, after that we want to finish it ASAP so that ball isn't modkilled really. Just in case he isn't Nightkilled tonight.

[House Corbray]

I have good news. The idea of a Ball - Overton teamup are totally unfounded. In fact, they are outright impossible.

Why? There are two votes on me. If they are teamed (partners via a promotable symp or just master and symp) then they have the 2 votes needed to kill me. Overton would have voted me, allowing Ball to hammer. At that point they can both vote for night tomorrow and it's game, set and match.

The fact that they haven't (plus the fact you all argued earlier that 2 evils is more likely than 3, and we got one) means that we can put that conspiracy to the side for now and call Ball a CI. Overton doesn't win PI, let alone VPI or CI though.

Overton waited until everyone had claimed "not healer" before CIing Ball. This ensured we didn't have 2-3 CIs today. It made it safe to CI Ball as a killer. After all, without the healer we only have 1 CI (Ball) who will then die tonight.

This makes Overton's claim seem truer. Makes us less likely to lynch him tomorrow.

It was a fine gamble.

When Overton claimed there was actually only one vote against you...

And why choosing me, why not Florent or Cassel? I'm quite strange to kill being quite a useless player here, and plus I'm gonna be modkilled anyway.

[House Mooton]

I have good news. The idea of a Ball - Overton teamup are totally unfounded. In fact, they are outright impossible.

Why? There are two votes on me. If they are teamed (partners via a promotable symp or just master and symp) then they have the 2 votes needed to kill me. Overton would have voted me, allowing Ball to hammer. At that point they can both vote for night tomorrow and it's game, set and match.

Overton left before the 2nd vote was cast against you (by Kenning). He's never been present in the thread at a time when you had 2 votes on you, and therefore has never been given the opportunity you're now discussing.

And now we've got Ball all of a sudden finding you suspicious.

[House Dayne]

So... Inch and Overton. That's the claim I'm making. Now to back it up...

Overton votes for Inchfield on day 1, but later switches to Yarwyck taking it from 3-2 with Inch top to 3-2 with Yar top. This is pretty much the point that the Inch train loses any momentum.

Day 2, Inch is in Overton's middle tier. Nice and safe.

Overton also defends Inch bringing up Hanlon's razor.

He then says he won't switch. Dangerous to do as a partner, but like we'd actually use that as evidence later. WE all know it's too obvious! :P

Day 3, despite Inch being the lynch, Overton barely even aknowledges him.

There's very little interaction between Inch and Overton coming from overton. Now to look from the other side...

Inch gives Overton a day 1 pass, has him in his middle tier, then on day 2 defends Overton's voting. The only other interaction from here on is Inch pointing out he doesn't like the case on Overton.

Seriously, these two haven't interacted in ANY way.

Once I flip innocent, Overton should be lynched. I can understand if you want to do me first (even though I was the obvious n1 target for a heal and a kill. Who would YOU have healed, and killed, on N1 everyone? Shouldn't that make me PI?) and that's fine, but Overton looks like he is the other killer.

I mean seriously, he's made a claim to a semi role that doesn't exist on the role list, or even make sense.