[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff 2

[Kadence]

I think you took the bait as well.

No, I'm explaining why Tyrion's plan is in fact the superior option, and why him thinking of it as bait makes little sense.

First your analysis of Dany´s character seems off to me. "prideful girl", well you seem must more certain of how she would react to her (hypothetical) nephew than I am.

Of course I'm not certain - but based on what we know of Dany, it seems likely that Tyrion was quite correct. Also her advisors would direct her along the lines Tyrion predicted she would take as well, which is very important. They'd be wary of supplicant Aegon but would encourage her to marry an Aegon who had plenty of supporters. Especially if Aegon gets Dorne (which is probable).

Quentyn Martell is one thing. Her nephew rescued from death would be another.

I totally agree. But Aegon with no proof of being Aegon and offering a few thousand soldiers (even the Golden Company thought half of them wouldn't get to Meereen), is totally different than Aegon in Westeros with military victories. At Meereen, Barristan, Shavepate and so on would advise her "be careful, this kid might be fake". Once Aegon is already doing his thing without her, suddenly not only is he more convincing to her (his victories would validate him as a "dragon" to her, just like military victories validate pretenders in real life), but she also has strong political incentive to marry him. Aegon would have true power by this point - what incentive would she have to make him an enemy, rather than a friend?

Second you are overlooking the importance of dragons.

Not at all, as I stated: Aegon is *more likely* to end up with dragons if he follows Tyrion's advice.

And I think you are underestimating the difficulty of training and riding dragons.

No I am not. That will be hard either way, following Tyrion's advice makes no difference there.

It might not be a matter of "sharing" as if one was sharing a car or a book

Except the dragons do listen to Dany, so she'd have the ability to not let YG use them. And she'd be more psychologically inclined to say "no dragons for you" to an Aegon who had accomplished nothing and was pissing her off, even if she had married him. But if she marries "winner" YG, not "beggar" YG, the dynamics of their relationship change completely.

He would be her equal, her King - not some guy she made King. It would be more dangerous for her to say "no dragons for you" - Aegon has too many friends by this point and she can't afford to piss him off.

If both Dany and YG got ambitions on a common aim, the right time to make an alliance is before making the move.

Not in this case because 1) It's an alliance *attempt*, it's not guaranteed. 2) The dynamics of power within the alliance are totally different depending on when it is made.

the image is that he is trying to steal a march on Dany

This is incredibly easy to deal with. "Aunt Dany, I've been waiting for you! Oh you are so beautiful." combined with the very honest "The trip to you was dangerous, we decided to hit up Westeros instead, easy pickings. Now let's finish these usurper mongrels together".

Finally, we are from Tyrion´s PoV and the text is very clear in that he *worked* on YG. Your argument seems to be that Tyrion´s arguments were correct when he meant them to be misleading - but do consider that Tyrion knows more than what he is saying on those arguments and that Tyrion is far more likely to know context of how people would react.

This confuses me, I'm not really sure what you're saying here.

[Kadence]

Just a quibble - the daughter of death, slayer of lies, bride of fire visions are not necessarily unrelated to the 3 mounts, 3 treasons, 3 fires. They are given on different parts of the visions, but some visions might *hint*, represent different things.

Yes but they're divided into three parts and the things before those three parts seem to be directly related to each part. Daughter of death, slayer of lies, and bride of fire I think very clearly refer to the three things mentioned before them. Viserys, Rhagehar, Rhaegho for daughter of death, blue-eyed king, mummer's dragon and shadow beast for slayer of lies, and her silver, the corpse, and blue flower for bride.

Note that I actually strongly suspect Martin might have ret-conned the corpse one though, from Euron (husband) to Connington (non-husband) and she won't marry Euron anymore. But I think it's clear that the original intent was for those to represent her three husbands.

So far maybe maybe mount to dread has already happened

I think it's Drogon, but whatever it is it shouldn't have anything to do with her husbands.

[Zeromus]

I reckon, right, that the kid turns out to be the real deal, the real Aemon, but the twist is that he turns out to be a right little shit and not kingly material at all. This sets the stage nicely for golden girl Dany to fly in and kick some ass.

[Whitney]

I actually still prefer Ned+Ashara=YG

Actually- I got the impression from Barristan's memory that Ashara was, in fact, involved with Brandon- not Ned.

[Whitney]

I also tend to think that YG is the real deal. My guess is that GRRM wants us to speculate that perhaps he's the Mummer's Dragon, but in the end, he is who they say he is. This is primarily because of how devoted Connington is to him. Why would he be if YG were not the true child of Conningham's beloved prince?

[cteresa]

Yes but they're divided into three parts and the things before those three parts seem to be directly related to each part. Daughter of death, slayer of lies, and bride of fire I think very clearly refer to the three things mentioned before them. Viserys, Rhagehar, Rhaegho for daughter of death, blue-eyed king, mummer's dragon and shadow beast for slayer of lies, and her silver, the corpse, and blue flower for bride.

Perhaps I have not explained my this well. Yes, 9 visions in groups of 3 for 3 prophecies. But visions can have double meanings.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/53294-adwd-spoilers-the-undying-prophecy-and-adwd/page__st__40

The mount to bed is the silver horse which shows up on the 7th vision ("Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. ") which according to you is just part of "bride of fire". The slayer of lies prophecy will not be independent from the fire-mount-treason prophecies.

Note that I actually strongly suspect Martin might have ret-conned the corpse one though, from Euron (husband) to Connington (non-husband) and she won't marry Euron anymore. But I think it's clear that the original intent was for those to represent her three husbands.

I think it's Drogon, but whatever it is it shouldn't have anything to do with her husbands.

I think

a) it is not at all clear if it is meant to represent her 3 husbands or something else yet not clear. Or have double meanings.

B) I think GRRM knows very well from the start who Dany is supposed to marry, love, or who is supposed to betray her from the start. Things newer readers seem to accuse him of pulling out of air, are things some of us have been predicting for 10 years or more.

[Kadence]

I reckon, right, that the kid turns out to be the real deal, the real Aemon, but the twist is that he turns out to be a right little shit and not kingly material at all. This sets the stage nicely for golden girl Dany to fly in and kick some ass.

I think Young Griff is actually the most sympathetic contender for the crown (other than Tommen who is a child), he seems pretty cool. My own guess is that Martin will make YG pretty likable, thus making his end more tragic.

Actually- I got the impression from Barristan's memory that Ashara was, in fact, involved with Brandon- not Ned.

Oh I agree, which I don't like at all but yes, I got the feeling from Barristan and the whole Lady Dustin speech that Brandon was the father of Ashara's stillborn child. I was just saying that I would prefer Ned+Ashara=YG to Illyrio+Serra=YG (and I definitely prefer Ned and Ashara being in love but him being forced to kill her brother, which is very tragic and epic, to Brandon screwing around with Ashara and ditching her - what an ugly story that is).

I also tend to think that YG is the real deal. My guess is that GRRM wants us to speculate that perhaps he's the Mummer's Dragon, but in the end, he is who they say he is. This is primarily because of how devoted Connington is to him. Why would he be if YG were not the true child of Conningham's beloved prince?

Even if YG is fake Connington has no way to know. He didn't meet him until he was around 5. Connington probably takes YG=Rhaeghar's son as an article of faith.

[Kadence]

Perhaps I have not explained my this well. Yes, 9 visions in groups of 3 for 3 prophecies. But visions can have double meanings.

I don't disagree they have double meanings, but the visions were grouped. The three daughter of death visions were not directly related to the bride of fire visions.

The slayer of lies prophecy will not be independent from the fire-mount-treason prophecies.

What do the slayer of lies visions have to do with the bride of fire ones? You've got blue-eyed king, the mummer's dragon and the shadow beast. I suppose it's possible she could marry the mummer's dragon and/or shadow beast, but Stannis (or some other blue eyed king) is in the slayer of lies vision, and Drogo isn't and it's a pretty damn safe bet Hizdahr isn't the mummer's dragon or shadow beast. So the slayer of lies visions aren't husband related.

a) it is not at all clear if it is meant to represent her 3 husbands or something else yet not clear. Or have double meanings.

I think it originally was, but now the corpse might be Connington so it no longer does. But the blue flower probably still represents her last husbnd.

B) I think GRRM knows very well from the start who Dany is supposed to marry, love, or who is supposed to betray her from the start. Things newer readers seem to accuse him of pulling out of air, are things some of us have been predicting for 10 years or more.

There is no way you are going to convince me Martin intended Dany to marry Hizdahr from the start. There's just almost no chance he did :)

We know for a fact writers change their minds about stuff (hell, Martin admits to totally rewriting Dance) in mid-story. I'd bet my house Hizdahr came from nowhere and was never prophecized by anything. I'm not even sure how anyone could think otherwise.

But Hizdahr isn't super important I'm assuming anyway, and he won't last. I don't think Martin would change his mind about anything "core" but Hizdahr is just a minor detail in the grand scheme of things. Now if Hizdahr actually ends up being important, then I'll be truly disappointed that Martin changed something core to the story.

edit: oh, and I've been predicting since 1997 when I read GoT, so that's 14 years :)

[Zeromus]

I think Young Griff is actually the most sympathetic contender for the crown (other than Tommen who is a child), he seems pretty cool. My own guess is that Martin will make YG pretty likable, thus making his end more tragic.

You may well be right.

BUT...

You're forgetting the humungous bitchfit he threw when Tyrion kicked his ass at cyvasse. Could that not be a sign of the Targaryen madness we've heard so much about? Why would the Bigman write a scene showing Aemon losing it over a board game if he wanted us to to like him?

[cteresa]

I don't disagree they have double meanings, but the visions were grouped. The three daughter of death visions were not directly related to the bride of fire visions.

What do the slayer of lies visions have to do with the bride of fire ones? You've got blue-eyed king, the mummer's dragon and the shadow beast. I suppose it's possible she could marry the mummer's dragon and/or shadow beast, but Stannis (or some other blue eyed king) is in the slayer of lies vision, and Drogo isn't and it's a pretty damn safe bet Hizdahr isn't the mummer's dragon or shadow beast. So the slayer of lies visions aren't husband related.

My point is that the Bride of Fire visions might be related not to necessarily to 3 husbands (or 3 loves) but to the fire to love, mount to love and treason for love. Ok? Or they might be related as well to the 3 mounts. I do not mean the bride of fire visions are related to daughter of death, I mean they are part of bride of fire and related as well to the OTHER structure of the prophecies which is the mounts-fires-treason.

There is no way you are going to convince me Martin intended Dany to marry Hizdahr from the start. There's just almost no chance he did :)

We know for a fact writers change their minds about stuff (hell, Martin admits to totally rewriting Dance) in mid-story. I'd bet my house Hizdahr came from nowhere and was never prophecized by anything. I'm not even sure how anyone could think otherwise.

But Hizdahr isn't super important I'm assuming anyway, and he won't last. I don't think Martin would change his mind about anything "core" but Hizdahr is just a minor detail in the grand scheme of things. Now if Hizdahr actually ends up being important, then I'll be truly disappointed that Martin changed something core to the story.

edit: oh, and I've been predicting since 1997 when I read GoT, so that's 14 years :)

There is no way then IMO that GRRM could plan marrying a Greyjoy to be interchangeably with marrying some Meereen dude. Hizdahr not being important enough to be prophecied or hinted or particularly defined, I agree. He does not matter (another reason why I think the visions are not 3 husbands. husband is a technicality). But GRRM having a plan for Dany to marry a Greyjoy (and that would matter plotwise in ways Hizdahr, or any such, does not matter) and then changing it, I think not. Particularly since I think the vision is Griff anyway ;) or in the very least far from clear so far who it is *really* meant to be.

We shall see anyway on the next books - so far I think this book seems planned and in control (there is a beautiful scene in the House of the Undying, the last vision from which Drogon wakes Dany which totally parallels already the Meereen situation). GRRM changing the major plot midway would be very worrying to me - but so far no evidence yet.

[Alexius]

You may well be right.

BUT...

You're forgetting the humungous bitchfit he threw when Tyrion kicked his ass at cyvasse. Could that not be a sign of the Targaryen madness we've heard so much about? Why would the Bigman write a scene showing Aemon losing it over a board game if he wanted us to to like him?

Tyrion didn't just kick his ass, he fooled him by giving him a bad advice. It establishes that Aegon doesn't like to be manipulated and that he can be hot-tempered and arrogant. It isn't so unexpected considering his age and upbringing.

Basically, he shown as a young and promising leader with critical flaws that he has to overcome in order to survive and succeed. Just like Jon and Dany.

[eivers]

Kinda makes you wonder what he will do when all his foes start proclaiming his an obvious fake being manipulated by a bunch of exiles.

[sbmcmanus]

Actually- I got the impression from Barristan's memory that Ashara was, in fact, involved with Brandon- not Ned.

I think this is right, but in the discussion above people seem convinced that Brandon was dead too early to have been the parent of, say, Jon Snow. Perhaps Darkstar is Brandon's on by Ashara, I think he was older.

[cteresa]

Basically, he shown as a young and promising leader with critical flaws that he has to overcome in order to survive and succeed. Just like Jon and Dany.

Less than Jon and Dany - which have not shown signs of petulance (and keep in mind that YG is supposedly older than them by 1 and 2 years respectively, so more mature).

The reason maybe maybe people think YG has shown "less" weaknesses is because duh, he has hardly been on screen and has been tested for anything. He has maybe a hundred lines in total in the book - there is lots more to object to in Jon and Dany´s actions because there are so many more actions of them.

I have seen no evidence at all he would be a better leader, or person than Jon or Dany.

[Bastard of Godsgrace]

Less than Jon and Dany - which have not shown signs of petulance (and keep in mind that YG is supposedly older than them by 1 and 2 years respectively, so more mature).

Jon actually did show such signs, but Donal Noye straightened him up. Young Griff hadn't anyone to do it, he also didn't overcome any real difficulties. Thing is, both Jon and Dany, for all their faults, are far more experienced and mature than he. We really don't know how he will act under pressure, but after what we saw of him, I rather doubt his abilities.

[Kadence]

My point is that the Bride of Fire visions might be related not to necessarily to 3 husbands (or 3 loves) but to the fire to love, mount to love and treason for love.

I think it's quite clear they were originally intended to be about husbands. Each of those three visions were grouped. They may also overlap, but they were clearly grouped. Bride of fire was originally meant to be about those three men: the silver, the corpse on the ship, and the blue flower.

There is no way then IMO that GRRM could plan marrying a Greyjoy to be interchangeably with marrying some Meereen dude.

Of course he didn't plan it.

(another reason why I think the visions are not 3 husbands. husband is a technicality)

They aren't anymore, since I believe the corpse is Connington. But they almost certainly were.

But GRRM having a plan for Dany to marry a Greyjoy (and that would matter plotwise in ways Hizdahr, or any such, does not matter) and then changing it, I think not.

I was just searching around for stuff and this and I found a 2005 chapter reading:

Quaithe tells Dany "The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare. After her will come the others [no caps]. Crow and kraken, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Remember the undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

Clearly the Crow would be Euron. I'm glad I just found this 2005 reading because now I think it's pretty cut and dry.

We know for a fact Martin rewrote Dance, he told us this himself. So clearly he changed stuff around. No doubt.

And here we have proof that in 2005 he meant for Euron to accompany Victarion, and it was part of a prophecy...which he altered. I think there's very little room for debate here: Euron was going to try and woo Dany in person, but Martin decided not to go this route. Almost all of us also presume Hizdahr came from nothing, he didn't exist in Martin's head before Dance. I think it's *highly* probable that Martin meant for Euron to marry Dany. But changed his mind, and so had Connington fill that prophecy instead.

I have seen no evidence at all he would be a better leader, or person than Jon or Dany.

I think most readers' opinions right now on Dany as a leader are extremely low, so that's a low standard to cross. Not to say she's a poor leader - just that most on this board now seem to have that opinion of her.

But yeah, we know very little about YG. Varys seems to think he's awesome but Varys is biased and might never have even met the kid. I think Varys is somewhat lying to himself about the "for the realm" business - I think that's just his justification for the chaos, but really, he's in it for something selfish. I myself theorize he's in it for his family (the Blackfyre legacy). I think Varys himself really believes YG is the best solution but that he has convinced himself of this because of emotional reasons.

[cteresa]

I think it's quite clear they were originally intended to be about husbands. Each of those three visions were grouped. They may also overlap, but they were clearly grouped. Bride of fire was originally meant to be about those three men: the silver, the corpse on the ship, and the blue flower.

Since this is a series not yet completed, and something of the things he foreshadows are only clear when we get there, it seems ridiculous to be sure you know the interpretation of some visions already and assume he changed his mind on the meanwhile. Let´s wait it out, till it becames clear, OK? Particularly since I think the bride of fire is going to be *final* part, heaven knows how many books till we get there, if we ever do.

I was just searching around for stuff and this and I found a 2005 chapter reading:

Clearly the Crow would be Euron. I'm glad I just found this 2005 reading because now I think it's pretty cut and dry.

We know for a fact Martin rewrote Dance, he told us this himself. So clearly he changed stuff around. No doubt..

GRRM has changed stuff around yes, a chapter I heard in 2005 was substancially reworked. But changing details is not the same as changing main plot. And "cut and dry" LOL; mileage varies, but your theory seems still a total stretch and it is not at all clear to me how the ref "proves" anything. Nevermind the unlikelihood of Dany marrying or wanting to marry Euron and that there is no real foreshadowing of it at all.

And here we have proof that in 2005 he meant for Euron to accompany Victarion, and it was part of a prophecy...which he altered..

I do not see Euron and Victarion together in a trip halfway (quarter of a way, if you insist) round the world and both arriving alive at the end of it.

I think most readers' opinions right now on Dany as a leader are extremely low, so that's a low standard to cross. Not to say she's a poor leader - just that most on this board now seem to have that opinion of her.

That might say more about "most" in the board and the depth of their analysis than of authorial intent.

[nategator]

Why would Varys lie?

For fun.

[eivers]

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but is the book clear on exactly when the switch supposedly went down. Also if your plan requires raising the heir to the throne in secret why fakes his death. Having the child missing then reappearing in the Free cities would at least lend some credibility to his identity.

[cteresa]

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but is the book clear on exactly when the switch supposedly went down. Also if your plan requires raising the heir to the throne in secret why fakes his death. Having the child missing then reappearing in the Free cities would at least lend some credibility to his identity.

Let´s put it this way, 17 years before ADWD is set Aegon was aged 1 year old. Shortly after his birth Robert rebelled, and there was a war, and so on, till the rebels invaded King´s Landing, Jaime killed Aerys, and Gregor Mountain killed Elia, Rhaenys and presumably Aegon in a way that the head was unrecognizable.

Gregor Clegane found a baby and bashed his head. If Aegon is alive, that swap must have been done before (obviously), though I think it doubtful to have been done long before. I think of Varys was secretly hoping to save Aegon, he could have moved things and sent him to Dragonstone with queen Rhaella and Viserys (a day, days before the sack?). Aerys would have been furious yes, but if Varys was so sure the child would die that a swap before the Sack was done, well end him anyway the ships would not be brought back. Keep in mind that even if the baby was saved, it might not have been done by Varys and the baby might not be YG.

If Aegon is dead, or Varys thinking he is, then there is a possibility to put up a pretender scam (this is really frequent in history). In that case the replacemente took place between the sack of KL and Aegon (real Aegon) being officially around 6 years of age. We know YG is officially 18 at ADWD (thx!), and his official age is presumably the same as Aegon´s. Griff was told about YG 12 years ago, so the child was 6 when he was told about him.