[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff 2

[fuelpagan]

Barring further evidence this seems to be exactly what happened. Why? Maybe he wanted to believe that the kid with the right hair colour was Rhaegar's, so he could make amends for past mistakes and eventually go home? People have amazing capacity for self-deception, and Varys is certainly aware of that. I have no problem believing that Connington bellieved Varys with very little evidence.

Connington is very cautious and suspicious of Tyrion joining the group. It's only after contracting Greyscale does he start saying he is sick of caution because he no longer has time for caution. No one who has spent several years in Lys where rumors are several boys and men resemble Rhaegar according to Cersei, is going to believe Varys on his word and looks of the boy alone.

[fuelpagan]

Yeah, that much plain. I just developed the impression that some people believe that he might have fooled himself into believing that Aegon is the real deal, although there are (speculative) signs to the contrary. I just wanted to state that this would make no sense. Considering the character of the man. He does this not for personal gain/glory/vanity. Its about friendship and family. So if this boy is not 'family' in the sense he believes he is, he would be really, really pissed.

It is one thing to believe a boy you left in a spot is the same one five years later while spending time with the Golden Company and fool yourself because he looks different then you expected. It is a completely different to be fooled by Varys claiming Aegon survived when all the stories are he died.

Unless someone can quote something saying Connington was not there during the rescue or was someplace else during the rescue. The theory Connington helped with the rescue remains a valid one. And makes more sense then Jon C trusting Varys at his word.

[Burning Tiger]

First, let me say I loved the introduction of Aegon into this series. A lot of us already think we know how everything will eventually play out, and having Aegon in the mix certainly shakes things up.

I think that Aegon is definitely the Mummer's Dragon AND the real Aegon Targaryen. Perhaps he's called the mummer's dragon because of his involvement with Varys, or maybe it's just because he's not a "special" Targaryen. I think Targaryens have different levels of "dragon" in them, and I suspect he's a lot more like Viserys than Daenerys in that respect.

I don't think he will be a dragon rider. I think that status is reserved for special Targaryens, like Dany. I think the other two will be Jon and Tyrion, the potential hidden Targaryens in the books. Most people already suspect Jon as the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar, and I think this latest books supports the theory of Tyrion as the son of Aerys and Joanna Lannister. All three of the mothers died in childbirth, which may the symbol of them being "true dragons." There is magic in death. The mothers of Aegon and Viserys (Elia and Rhaella) both survived their births.

That is not to say that Aegon won't be a key player. I take Dany's vision of Rhaegar in the House of Undying at face value. Aegon's song is the song of ice and fire. When all is said and done, I think he will be the one who unites the kingdom and rules Westeros. Dany and Jon both haven't proved to be that great as leaders. I think it would be an interesting turn of events if Aegon proves to be a great leader, although what the endgame with respect to his relationship with the dragon riders is up in the air.

[Kadence]

I'm pretty sure that in this very same chapter, or in another chapter of the book, Cersei dismisses the importance of this when she recalls that "half the whores in Lys had Rhaegar's look, if the tales are true." I'm not entirely sure of the wording, but it was something like that. I'll see if I can find a direct quote.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Serra was found in a Lysene pillow house by Illryio. I'm pretty sure it's an intentional callback/easter egg to this Cersei thought. Cersei's thought was foreshadowing YG's probable momma Blackfyre.

JC clearly isn't looking to have YG declared a fraud for a lot of reasons, one of which being that if he is fake, everything of Rhaegar has been lost to JC.

I wonder what his reaction would be to learning that Rhaeghar's son really was around this whole time - but he'd been protecting the wrong boy. Hopefully Connington lives long enough to find out about Jon (who I think might even have been named for him; Rhaeghar was dead by the time he was born but he might have had a conversation with Lyanna "If it's a boy we'll call him Jon, for my friend"). Up to this point I think we assumed he was named for Jon Arryn but maybe Ned wasn't the one to name him.

...also I am suddenly envisioning "JC" as a rapper :unsure:

[Stubby]

Merging threads.

[Dragonfish]

I've read both Jon Connington chapters and found no evidence he was or wasn't involved in the rescue.

Then you should have read the Tyrion chapter where the switch is discussed.

On pp. 279-80, Tyrion says this:

..."And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a poleboat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father."

So Connington was not involved in the switch, and likely didn't receive Aegon until five years into his exile, given that Franklyn Flowers, one of the members of the Golden Company, knows Connington well but does not know Aegon at all (this is from p. 310).

Also of note is the fact that only Varys and Illyrio are mentioned as being involved in the switch. There doesn't seem to be anyone else, certainly no one that Jon Connington knew or trusted, who helped Varys. And why would there be? Varys is all about secrecy, and the more people involved in a scheme, the harder it is to keep the scheme a secret. Most likely if he needed accomplices to help in the escape, he would have used his little birds and/or Illyrio's servants. They didn't need to use anyone Connington knew, especially since they didn't seem to think of using Connington until years later. So the moral of the story is, your theory has practically zero support from the text.

[Dragonfish]

I don't think it's a coincidence that Serra was found in a Lysene pillow house by Illryio.

:stunned: Holy crap, I never noticed that. I was a bit on the fence about I+S=YG before, but now I think I might be convinced. Thanks for posting this. :thumbsup:

[Kadence]

Why would Connington agree to this with Viserys and Dany still alive? Why place king on the throne you have questions about when you know the brother and sister are still alive?

A brother and sister are not a son. He loved Rhaeghar - Aerys attainted him. He probably doesn't care about Viserys and Dany at all.

Aegon's presence during the battle will be for the better in my opinion, as his cause won't profit that much if they hide him away at Griffin's Roost. He has to be the visible face of the operation, just as Robert was back during the Rebellion. They are even of a similar age.

I agree. A rear command/visible general role (not actually giving commands obviously, just for show) would be better than being hidden. This way once they take Storm's End it will be "Aegon took Storm's End" not "Aegon's men took Storm's End". Big difference for PR purposes.

Also Connington plans to take it by "guile" so YG should be safe for this battle. Can't see Martin introducing YG to kill him off right away. Especially since "slayer of lies" is associated with Dany, and she'll not arrive for some time yet. I'm definitely hoping that "slayer" is not literal as both Stannis and Aegon are quite likable, and seeing them die because of Dany would suck.

It is one thing to believe a boy you left in a spot is the same one five years later while spending time with the Golden Company and fool yourself because he looks different then you expected. It is a completely different to be fooled by Varys claiming Aegon survived when all the stories are he died.

Unless someone can quote something saying Connington was not there during the rescue or was someplace else during the rescue. The theory Connington helped with the rescue remains a valid one. And makes more sense then Jon C trusting Varys at his word.

There is no reason at all to think Connington was involved in the rescue. If he was we would almost surely have learned of it.

And yes Varys isn't trustworthy, which is why they brought Jon Connington into it in the first place. People in Westeros will believe that a silver haired purple eyed boy presented to them by Rhaeghar's best friend, is Rhaeghar's son. They wouldn't trust Varys like they will Connington. Connington gives them credibility - that's his role.

[Kadence]

:stunned: Holy crap, I never noticed that. I was a bit on the fence about I+S=YG before, but now I think I might be convinced. Thanks for posting this. :thumbsup:

Yes and I also believe Serra was a Blackfyre (Maelys' daughter or granddaughter most probably), and Varys quite possibly her brother. I made a thread about Varys possibly being Team Blackfyre and in that thread someone speculated on Serra being a Blackfyre - and right away that clicked, everything made sense, and immediately made me think that Varys could be her brother or some other relative.

Illyrio sending the son of his beloved Serra away from himself, to risk his life in the Game of Thrones for a foreign crown, when the son doesn't even know his own father does not make sense. It is not believable that Illyrio would come up with this crazy scheme to put his son on the throne when that involves his son being raised by strangers, and putting that son's life in grave danger. But if it's to reclaim his beloved wife's 'birthright' then suddenly his motives are understood perfectly. He truly loved Serra and wants their son to have the throne her family has tried for generations to win in vain.

• Illyrio says "some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood" on page 78. This indicates to me that Blackheart knew who Aegon was and this is why he supported him - the ancient loyalty to the Blackfyres. Blackheart didn't switch his allegiance to the Targs because the Blackfyre male line ended - he went with the female line. Illyrio-Varys-Toyne probably came up with this conspiracy together in secrecy.
  
• Varys shaves his head, just like Egg. I think Egg was partially intended by Martin to be a clue about shaved heads and Varys.
  
• Varys and Illyrio seem oddly loyal to one another. Them being family explains this.

Now there is the fact that Varys was from Myr and Serra from Lys, so that puts some doubt on the brother-sister theory. But I don't think Varys' shaved head is meaningless. And Varys being Serra's brother makes Varys' motives clear. He's in this for family, I believe, not "the realm".

[Dragonfish]

Now there is the fact that Varys was from Myr and Serra from Lys, so that puts some doubt on the brother-sister theory.

According to the wiki, Pycelle claims that Varys was born a slave in Lys. I suppose it's not out of the question that he's telling the truth, and that Varys later moved to Myr and became the "king of thieves."

[Kadence]

According to the wiki, Pycelle claims that Varys was born a slave in Lys. I suppose it's not out of the question that he's telling the truth, and that Varys later moved to Myr and became the "king of thieves."

That would make Varys-Serra as brother-sister more likely then, good catch.

I am very confident that Serra was of Blackfyre blood, and I now think it's a greater than 50% chance that Varys was her brother (or very close Blackfyre relative of some sort).

So if this is true, then all the mystery about Varys and Illyrio and YG is basically solved, except for just what their plans were with Viserys and the Dothraki.

[Finn]

I just posted this over in the "Mummer's Dragon" thread, but now I think it belongs over here. Maybe the threads should be merged? In any case-

The thing is - the eventual appearance of "Aegon" was inevitable.

Basically, you have the perfect set-up for a pretender to the throne: the heir to the throne is murdered as an infant and murdered in such a way that he is unrecognizable. This is too good an opportunity to pass up. Someone is going to seize on it and claim that the babies were switched and that the heir to the throne is alive and well.

The pretender to the throne who claims to be descended from the true king is both a standard device in fiction and something that happened in European history over and over again. Some posters have claimed that "Aegon" is an unbelievable plot device. On the contrary, this is one of the more realistic events in the series. This kind of thing happened all the time.

If Aegon didn't exist (as a real baby switcheroo), he would have to be invented. And so he was. Cooked up by Varys and Illyrio. As Rhaegar's BFF, Jon Connington (who is "conned" into believing this story) is the perfect straight man to make people believe in the mummer's dragon.

And "mummer's dragon" absolutely means fake, no matter how you slice it. The "mummer's dragon means Varys's dragon" reading is clever, but it doesn't get around the fact that mummer's dragon also clearly implies fake dragon. And it doesn't get around the fact that you wouldn't refer to the true heir to the throne with a phrase as dismissive as "mummer's dragon."

I also think it significant that both times we get the big reveal about Young Griff's true identity (first to Tyrion and then to the Golden Company), it's completely anti-climactic.

The question is what are Varys and Illyrio up to. And why is the Golden Company supporting the wrong side of the Targaryen coin (from their perspective)?

And now I realize that Kadence has answered my question. Nice detective work! I have to think further about the details, but I'm convinced by the general thrust of the Blackfyre theory.

[HalfMaester]

Just one question (and forgive my poor English)

Why, with Viserys and Dany alive and safe in Pentos

would Varys and Illyrio have organized the "Fake Aegon Operation"?

Is it not more reasonable that was before the arrive of the Lannister at King's Landing, with Dany not yet born and Viserys not saf but still in Dragonstone, Varys and Illyrio, to secure the Targaryen blood, decided to switch Aegon with the pisswater prince? And we know (from Jaime) that Varys never trust the Lannister...

In my opinion Aegon is the only dragon that we need, and he is the Mummer's Dragon just because Varys managed to save him

And, at last, why should Varys have lied to a dying Kevan?

[The Marquis de Leech]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but in 'Aegon', we have yet another candidate for the infamous valonquar prophecy. Aegon was, of course, a little brother.

[Arthanis]

Viserys was kingdom heir AND targarien but he wasn't dragon.

Aegon may be real heir to kingdom, true blood Targarien and and son of Rhaegar and Elia and he can be still only fake dragon.

[Ku.]

Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and into his mouth. A tall lord with copper-gold skin and silvery hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name...mother of dragons...daughter of death...

"A tall lord with copper-gold skin and silvery hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him."

Could this represent Young Griff, or is that definitely meant to represent what Dany's son would have been since it's "daughter of death?"

[Lord Varys]

Varys was born a slave in Lys, according to Grand Maester Pycelle. No idea how he could know that truth, and not know that he was a Blackfyre - if he is Blackfyre. If that fact was known, he would never have become Master of Whisperers in the first place. So the fact that Varys was (supposedly) born a slave in Lys makes the Blackfyre-theory not really credible. Either it is the truth, and it is more or less widely known that Varys was born a slave in Lys to insignificant parents, or it is a fabricated story to hide Varys's true heritage. But this is problematic - at least, if you go along with the Blackfyre heritage theory.

The years don't add up. Varys seems to have been sincere about his childhood stories (being a mummer and and being castrated by that sorcerer in Myr). The War of the Ninepenny Kings was during the last years of Egg's rule or even during the three years of Jaehaerys's II reign. So the boy Varys would have no time for his own biography as a mummer, as prince of thieves in Myr, and in Pentos if he was a child old enough to remember that he was a Blackfyre by birth during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

At least as it is my guess that Varys served as Master of Whisperers for 8-10 years on Aerys's Small Council, not just for a few years.

And we have no reason to believe that Varys lied about being a mummer or about the way he was castrated.

[Manderly`s Personal Chef]

@Sivin; when I read Tyrion´s sample chapter and when Illyrio mentioned Griff and Young Griff, I was sure that JC and Aegon are alive. So the revealing of Aegon VI wasn´t such a surprise for me (and probably many others).

I´m sure that Aegon is for real. I doubt that Daenerys and Visery were "plan B" for some random boy.

[voodooqueen126]

Varys was born a slave in Lys, according to Grand Maester Pycelle. No idea how he could know that truth, and not know that he was a Blackfyre - if he is Blackfyre. If that fact was known, he would never have become Master of Whisperers in the first place. So the fact that Varys was (supposedly) born a slave in Lys makes the Blackfyre-theory not really credible. Either it is the truth, and it is more or less widely known that Varys was born a slave in Lys to insignificant parents, or it is a fabricated story to hide Varys's true heritage. But this is problematic - at least, if you go along with the Blackfyre heritage theory.

The years don't add up. Varys seems to have been sincere about his childhood stories (being a mummer and and being castrated by that sorcerer in Myr). The War of the Ninepenny Kings was during the last years of Egg's rule or even during the three years of Jaehaerys's II reign. So the boy Varys would have no time for his own biography as a mummer, as prince of thieves in Myr, and in Pentos if he was a child old enough to remember that he was a Blackfyre by birth during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

At least as it is my guess that Varys served as Master of Whisperers for 8-10 years on Aerys's Small Council, not just for a few years.

And we have no reason to believe that Varys lied about being a mummer or about the way he was castrated.

These are good arguments against team Varys being on team Blackfyre.

[fuelpagan]

Then you should have read the Tyrion chapter where the switch is discussed.

On pp. 279-80, Tyrion says this:

So Connington was not involved in the switch, and likely didn't receive Aegon until five years into his exile, given that Franklyn Flowers, one of the members of the Golden Company, knows Connington well but does not know Aegon at all (this is from p. 310).

We know GRRM uses unreliable narrator. That is what Tyrion deduces happened, not what actually happened. Therefore proves nothing. It's like using a Cersei chapter to deduce Davos is dead.

A brother and sister are not a son. He loved Rhaeghar - Aerys attainted him. He probably doesn't care about Viserys and Dany at all.

Of course a brother and sister are not the son. But they are still known to be Rhaegar's family. All the indications I see are that Connington was honorable, and cautious after failing at the Battle of the Bells. It's only now that he is infected with greyscale that says he is done with caution, because time is running out.

I don't see a cautious man taking Varys at his word. It doesn't add up.

Otherwise he wouldn't have given Tyrion such a hard time when Illyrio and Varys clearly sent Tyrion to be a part of the group.