Hooded Man in winterfell part 3

[Prince of the North]

I never said hundreds. I don't understand how long ago could be only 2-3 years.

Benjen is not Coldhands.

Whoa, that's a pretty strong statement. Prove it! :D Just good-naturedly kidding. I know you can't prove it just as I can't prove that Coldhands is Benjen although it's what I believe. However, I don't make the mistake of stating what I believe as fact. ;)

[King Tyrion VIII]

Benjen probably isn't Coldhands :D

I think it's a stretch to fit Benjen in as Coldhands or the Hooded Man. But that's just my opinion :)

[nedhed]

So... whether the Prince of the North swears fealty to King Tyrion, or the other way around, turns on whether Benjen is Coldhands?

[King Tyrion VIII]

I don't know why you would think that the conversation wouldn't make sense for Benjen. Makes perfect sense for me.

It's not really even the conversation that bothers me, though I do wonder how Benjen got that information. I just don't see Benjen's reappearance being that anti climatic. There's better evidence that it's Torren Little or Robett Glover.

So... whether the Prince of the North swears fealty to King Tyrion, or the other way around, turns on whether Benjen is Coldhands?

To be honest, I think GRRM planned it this way from the start :D

[Meddler]

I do really like Bran Vos's theory. I'd also had the idea that perhaps Theon had actually killed one of his bastard children when he killed the miller's boys, as he'd slept with the miller's wife a number of times, and reflects on this fact a number of times, but Vos really lays out a lot of the other details surrounding these events well. The only problem with equating this to the HM is how would the HM know Theon fathered one of the miller's boys? Using Vos's outline of events, I have a working theory that might fit all the known evidence. First, the sequence of events, which is crucial:

1. No one uses the word Kinslayer to describe Theon prior to the HM. Everyone, including the Washerwomen, call him nothing worse than turncloak.

2. The HM scene happens. He calls Theon Kinslayer.

3. Mors Umber starts blowing warhorns outside the walls shortly after Theon encounters the HM, on the same night.

4. The next time Theon encounters the washerwomen, in the Godswood, they refer to him as Kinslayer, and admit that they're not referring to Bran and Rickon.

5. Theon escapes with JArya.

6. Crowfood finds Theon, appears to be expecting him, and calls him Kinslayer.

There definitely could be an implied connection here between the arrival of the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors Umber. Between the use of the word Kinslayer, the parallel timing of Crowfood's arrival and the HM, the washerwomen's use of the word following these events, and Crowfood's apparent awareness that Theon will be escaping when he does, there are more than a few hints that there is some kind of connection here.

I think I've seen in mentioned, but there's another decent candidate for the HM (as good as any other, at least): Ser Kyle Condon.

Ser Kyle was the right hand of Lord Medger Cerwyn, essentially his version of Rodrick Cassel (it is interesting to note that a Northern house keeps a knight in it's service here, but that's a different discussion, its possible he simply received a knighthood for valor in battle, similar to Ser Jorah). He fought with Lord Cerwyn under the command of Roose Bolton at the Battle of the Green Fork, where Lord Cerwyn was mortally wounded and captured (he later died at Harrenhal). He remained with Roose's force until the Battle of the Ruby Ford, where he was given the command of the Northern forces that Roose left behind to prevent the Mountain from crossing (and also to spare them from the RW). It's not specified what happens to Ser Kyle after this, but it's possible he rejoins Roose's forces following the Red Wedding to march on Moat Cailin and returns to the North.

Meanwhile, Lord Cerwyn's son and heir, Cley Cerwyn, had brought 300 men to Winterfell to try and remove Theon during his occupation. Cley is killed and his body presented to Theon by Ramsay just before he sacks the castle and takes Theon prisoner.

This leaves Jonella Cerwyn, daughter of Medger and sister to Cley, to inherit Castle Cerwyn, as there are no living male heirs. She is present at Barrow Hall and signs Roose's letter calling all the Northern Lords to witness the wedding of Ramsay and Arya. However, it does not appear she is present at Winterfell for the wedding, which is curious. She is never mentioned as being in attendance, and Theon does not seem to think any highborn Cerwyns are present, just some "cousins".

Castle Cerwyn is a close neighbor of Winterfell, roughly half a day's ride due south, and Lord Cerwyn and his Son were noted to have visited often. Thus of all the Northern nobility who might have attended the wedding, Jonella Cerwyn would have been among the most likely to recognize Arya as an imposter. It does appear Cerwyn men are present, and their maester (Rhodry) is noted to be serving Roose (among other maesters).

Additionally, as far as anyone in the story knows, no one in the North is aware that it was Ramsay who sacked Winterfell (and killed Cley Cerwyn). However, as we learn in ADwD, someone does know--Wyman Manderly. Wyman is also present at Barrowtown, and with the knowledge that Ramsay was responsible for the death (and betrayal) of Jonella's brother Cley. Given this, Lord Wyman had ample opportunity to enlist Lady Jonella to his subversion.

Whether it was Jonella's choice not to attend the Winterfell Wedding or Roose's, she is, like Ser Kyle, probably regarded as of little consequence to the Bolton cause. House Cerwyn took substantial losses in virtually every costly conflict the North took part in--The Green Fork, Duskendale, The Sack of Winterfell, and the Red Wedding (the only conflict they were spared of was the Ruby Ford, but many of their men accompanied Roose to the Red Wedding anyway, save Ser Kyle and a few others). They have little left to contribute in the way of manpower. However, Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell still makes it an ideal staging ground for clandestine operations.

It's also possible that Lord Wyman is aware of the divide between the Umber brothers, and possibly even still in contact with Mors. Recall that at the Harvest Feast, the Umbers had been ordered to provide lumber to Wyman to build ships with, which we know he has been hard at work at. If Manderly was aware that Crowfood was marching to Winterfell ahead of Stannis, one of the tasks he may have set Lady Jonella towards could have been intercepting Crowfood before he arrived and planning a liberation mission for Arya and Theon (the only man alive who can be used as a credible witness to Bran and Rickon's survival). Crowfood still would have had to take Theon and Arya to Stannis, as he's directly allied with Stannis. This also likely wouldn't be a cause for gripe for Wyman or Lady Cerwyn, as Castle Cerwyn is likely lightly guarded, and if brought there Theon and Arya could likely be traced, recaptured, and reveal the Cerwyn involvement. The plan would then be to wait for Lord Wyman to make contact and proceed to have Theon reveal the truth, from the Wyman/Cerwyn perpsective.

Could Crowfood also have made contact with Mance prior to the wedding as well? This would have been before he made contact with the Maderly/Cerwyn alliance, and thus prior to planning a liberation of Theon as well as Arya (Mance likely had no direct prior interest in Theon, aside from perhaps for any information he might have). It's never explained how Mance learns that the wedding location changes to Winterfell. He departs Castle Black with a stated destination of Long Lake before Roose even decides to go to Winterfell. Long Lake is part of Umber territory. Did Mance get tipped off by Crowfood? Was Crowfood aware that Mance was already at Winterfell when he was intercepted by Ser Kyle? He then could have advised Ser Kyle to coordinate with Mance and free Theon as well.

Of course, this still leaves out Robett Glover, who in this scenario could very well be working with Lady Jonella out of Castle Cerwyn, as he is obviously not present at Winterfell but was seen with Wyman Manderly before he departed White Harbor. However, the chief objection to the HM being Robett Glover is that he would be easily recognized, both by Theon and the Northern Nobility, and his sudden presence would likely raise suspicion if he were noticed at Winterfell. This wouldn't be so problematic if he'd shown up at Barrowtown or for the wedding, but showing up so suddenly so long after would be strange. Ser Kyle would not have been recognized by Theon, but he would recognize Theon, and have reason to be very angry with him personally, as he had greater stake in the events that transpired leading up to the Sack. His presence also likely wouldn't raise suspicion at Winterfell, as there are Cerwyn men present, even if Lady Jonella is not.

Additionally, under the theory that one or both of the miller's children are actually Theon's, and that this is what the use of "Kinslayer" is referring to, I can't think of any other candidates who would be more likely aware of this than someone like Ser Kyle. He's spent most of his life in service to Castle Cerwyn, so he's a local, but he isn't nearly as highborn as the Lords (think about Rodrick Cassel, who held a more powerful position as the right hand of the Warden of the North rather than just a Lord in the north). It's likely he's more familiar with the common local gossip, which could easily include the possibility that Theon is the father of one or both of the children he would later kill, and he would know it was these children that were killed, rather than Bran and Rickon, as he's been let on the information shared by Lord Wyman.

The biggest problem with this theory is the Mance/Crowfood connection, as Crowfood demanded Mance's skull as a term of his alliance with Stannis. Of coruse, it's very unlikely Crowfood knows what Mance looks like. If Mance made contact with Crowfood, he could have easily been posing as someone else, probably Abel, though admitting he was an agent sent by Stannis. He could have even brought Crowfood Rattleshirt's skull in place of his own!

So to summarize the theory:

1. Ser Kyle Condon rejoins Roose Bolton following the Red Wedding and marches with him to Barrowtown, where he joins his mistress, Lady Jonella Cerwyn.

2. Mance Rayder, posing as Abel the Bard, delivers a false skull to Crowfood on his way to Long Lake, learns the wedding location has been changed to Winterfell, and goes ahead to infiltrate with the intent of rescuing Arya.

3. At Barrowtown, Wyman Manderly informs Lady Jonella of the true events of the Sack of Winterfell, Ramsay's part in her brother's death, and the survival of the Stark boys. Ser Kyle, who knew the Miller, realizes that Theon murdered his own son or sons.

4. Lady Jonella and Ser Kyle return to Castle Cerwyn while Wyman Manderly proceeds to Winterfell with Roose and his allies.

5. The Washerwomen periodically attempt to subtley interrogate Theon, to find out if he can be of any use.

6. Ser Kyle intercepts Crowfood before he reaches Winterfell and informs him of the need to rescue Theon. He also informs Crowfood of the survival of the Stark boys, and that Theon murdered his own kin instead of the Starks. Crowfood informs Ser Kyle that upon entering Winterfell he can enlist the assistance of Abel the Bard, who is already inside attempting to rescue Arya.

7. Ser Kyle enters Winterfell just prior to Crowfood's arrival, perhaps freely, as an envoy of Lady Cerwyn, who Roose either believes to be either an ally or inconsequential. Ser Hyle encounters Theon and calls him a Kinslayer, knowing he was the father of at least one of the Miller's boys.

8. Crowfood Umber arrives and sounds warhorns outside Winterfell's walls.

9. Ser Kyle makes contact with Abel and the Washerwomen to coordinate their escape attempts. He gives them the same information he gave Crowfood about the boys Theon killed.

9. The Washerwomen accost Theon in the Godswood, call him a Kinslayer, and bring him to Abel to let him in on the plan.

10. Theon and Arya escape as the Manderly and Frey forces are preparing to engage Crowfood (who they believe to be Stannis) outside the Walls of Winterfell.

11. Crowfood finds Theon, as planned, outside the walls of Winterfell. He calls Theon a Kinslayer, and arranges to have he and Arya brought to Stannis for protection.

Thus, I nominate Ser Kyle Condon as a candidate for the HM. It takes a lot of effort to get there, but it wraps up nicely, seeming to fit every piece of evidence we've been given, and doesn't leave any loose ends I'm aware of, which is more than I can say for most of the other possibilities.

[Prince of the North]

So... whether the Prince of the North swears fealty to King Tyrion, or the other way around, turns on whether Benjen is Coldhands?

Nah, I don't think we have to get that serious about it. If we find out who Coldhands and the Hooded Man are (and I believe we will), and it's not Benjen Stark and an aspect of Theon's compartmentalized psyche, then I'll be one of the first talking about how wrong I was and discussing further developments now that we know. I have no problem admitting I'm wrong. Until then, I'll continue having fun speculating about this great story ;)

To be honest, I think GRRM planned it this way from the start :D

Heh, I think you're right!

[King Tyrion VIII]

I'm currently working on an OP for a Part 4 thread. I only have internet access from my phone so it could take a few hours as I search through these 3 threads to find the best theories for each candidate.

If you happen to know page numbers for theories please post. Also post any other candidates besides:

Benjen

Torren Liddle

Robett Glover

Davos

Theon Durden

Thank you.

[Prince of the North]

I'm currently working on an OP for a Part 4 thread. I only have internet access from my phone so it could take a few hours as I search through these 3 threads to find the best theories for each candidate.

If you happen to know page numbers for theories please post. Also post any other candidates besides:

Benjen

Torren Liddle

Robett Glover

Davos

Theon Durden

Thank you.

If the search function were working I could at least give you some of what I've previously written concerning "Theon Durden" (although others' thoughts are probably better than mine). I'll try to remember to check periodically.

[King Tyrion VIII]

Can a mod please lock this thread?

Please move discussion to Part 4:

[Whoresbane Umber]

I do really like Bran Vos's theory. I'd also had the idea that perhaps Theon had actually killed one of his bastard children when he killed the miller's boys, as he'd slept with the miller's wife a number of times, and reflects on this fact a number of times, but Vos really lays out a lot of the other details surrounding these events well. The only problem with equating this to the HM is how would the HM know Theon fathered one of the miller's boys? Using Vos's outline of events, I have a working theory that might fit all the known evidence. First, the sequence of events, which is crucial:

1. No one uses the word Kinslayer to describe Theon prior to the HM. Everyone, including the Washerwomen, call him nothing worse than turncloak.

2. The HM scene happens. He calls Theon Kinslayer.

3. Mors Umber starts blowing warhorns outside the walls shortly after Theon encounters the HM, on the same night.

4. The next time Theon encounters the washerwomen, in the Godswood, they refer to him as Kinslayer, and admit that they're not referring to Bran and Rickon.

5. Theon escapes with JArya.

6. Crowfood finds Theon, appears to be expecting him, and calls him Kinslayer.

There definitely could be an implied connection here between the arrival of the HM, the washerwomen, and Mors Umber. Between the use of the word Kinslayer, the parallel timing of Crowfood's arrival and the HM, the washerwomen's use of the word following these events, and Crowfood's apparent awareness that Theon will be escaping when he does, there are more than a few hints that there is some kind of connection here.

I think I've seen in mentioned, but there's another decent candidate for the HM (as good as any other, at least): Ser Kyle Condon.

Ser Kyle was the right hand of Lord Medger Cerwyn, essentially his version of Rodrick Cassel (it is interesting to note that a Northern house keeps a knight in it's service here, but that's a different discussion, its possible he simply received a knighthood for valor in battle, similar to Ser Jorah). He fought with Lord Cerwyn under the command of Roose Bolton at the Battle of the Green Fork, where Lord Cerwyn was mortally wounded and captured (he later died at Harrenhal). He remained with Roose's force until the Battle of the Ruby Ford, where he was given the command of the Northern forces that Roose left behind to prevent the Mountain from crossing (and also to spare them from the RW). It's not specified what happens to Ser Kyle after this, but it's possible he rejoins Roose's forces following the Red Wedding to march on Moat Cailin and returns to the North.

Meanwhile, Lord Cerwyn's son and heir, Cley Cerwyn, had brought 300 men to Winterfell to try and remove Theon during his occupation. Cley is killed and his body presented to Theon by Ramsay just before he sacks the castle and takes Theon prisoner.

This leaves Jonella Cerwyn, daughter of Medger and sister to Cley, to inherit Castle Cerwyn, as there are no living male heirs. She is present at Barrow Hall and signs Roose's letter calling all the Northern Lords to witness the wedding of Ramsay and Arya. However, it does not appear she is present at Winterfell for the wedding, which is curious. She is never mentioned as being in attendance, and Theon does not seem to think any highborn Cerwyns are present, just some "cousins".

Castle Cerwyn is a close neighbor of Winterfell, roughly half a day's ride due south, and Lord Cerwyn and his Son were noted to have visited often. Thus of all the Northern nobility who might have attended the wedding, Jonella Cerwyn would have been among the most likely to recognize Arya as an imposter. It does appear Cerwyn men are present, and their maester (Rhodry) is noted to be serving Roose (among other maesters).

Additionally, as far as anyone in the story knows, no one in the North is aware that it was Ramsay who sacked Winterfell (and killed Cley Cerwyn). However, as we learn in ADwD, someone does know--Wyman Manderly. Wyman is also present at Barrowtown, and with the knowledge that Ramsay was responsible for the death (and betrayal) of Jonella's brother Cley. Given this, Lord Wyman had ample opportunity to enlist Lady Jonella to his subversion.

Whether it was Jonella's choice not to attend the Winterfell Wedding or Roose's, she is, like Ser Kyle, probably regarded as of little consequence to the Bolton cause. House Cerwyn took substantial losses in virtually every costly conflict the North took part in--The Green Fork, Duskendale, The Sack of Winterfell, and the Red Wedding (the only conflict they were spared of was the Ruby Ford, but many of their men accompanied Roose to the Red Wedding anyway, save Ser Kyle and a few others). They have little left to contribute in the way of manpower. However, Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell still makes it an ideal staging ground for clandestine operations.

It's also possible that Lord Wyman is aware of the divide between the Umber brothers, and possibly even still in contact with Mors. Recall that at the Harvest Feast, the Umbers had been ordered to provide lumber to Wyman to build ships with, which we know he has been hard at work at. If Manderly was aware that Crowfood was marching to Winterfell ahead of Stannis, one of the tasks he may have set Lady Jonella towards could have been intercepting Crowfood before he arrived and planning a liberation mission for Arya and Theon (the only man alive who can be used as a credible witness to Bran and Rickon's survival). Crowfood still would have had to take Theon and Arya to Stannis, as he's directly allied with Stannis. This also likely wouldn't be a cause for gripe for Wyman or Lady Cerwyn, as Castle Cerwyn is likely lightly guarded, and if brought there Theon and Arya could likely be traced, recaptured, and reveal the Cerwyn involvement. The plan would then be to wait for Lord Wyman to make contact and proceed to have Theon reveal the truth, from the Wyman/Cerwyn perpsective.

Could Crowfood also have made contact with Mance prior to the wedding as well? This would have been before he made contact with the Maderly/Cerwyn alliance, and thus prior to planning a liberation of Theon as well as Arya (Mance likely had no direct prior interest in Theon, aside from perhaps for any information he might have). It's never explained how Mance learns that the wedding location changes to Winterfell. He departs Castle Black with a stated destination of Long Lake before Roose even decides to go to Winterfell. Long Lake is part of Umber territory. Did Mance get tipped off by Crowfood? Was Crowfood aware that Mance was already at Winterfell when he was intercepted by Ser Kyle? He then could have advised Ser Kyle to coordinate with Mance and free Theon as well.

Of course, this still leaves out Robett Glover, who in this scenario could very well be working with Lady Jonella out of Castle Cerwyn, as he is obviously not present at Winterfell but was seen with Wyman Manderly before he departed White Harbor. However, the chief objection to the HM being Robett Glover is that he would be easily recognized, both by Theon and the Northern Nobility, and his sudden presence would likely raise suspicion if he were noticed at Winterfell. This wouldn't be so problematic if he'd shown up at Barrowtown or for the wedding, but showing up so suddenly so long after would be strange. Ser Kyle would not have been recognized by Theon, but he would recognize Theon, and have reason to be very angry with him personally, as he had greater stake in the events that transpired leading up to the Sack. His presence also likely wouldn't raise suspicion at Winterfell, as there are Cerwyn men present, even if Lady Jonella is not.

Additionally, under the theory that one or both of the miller's children are actually Theon's, and that this is what the use of "Kinslayer" is referring to, I can't think of any other candidates who would be more likely aware of this than someone like Ser Kyle. He's spent most of his life in service to Castle Cerwyn, so he's a local, but he isn't nearly as highborn as the Lords (think about Rodrick Cassel, who held a more powerful position as the right hand of the Warden of the North rather than just a Lord in the north). It's likely he's more familiar with the common local gossip, which could easily include the possibility that Theon is the father of one or both of the children he would later kill, and he would know it was these children that were killed, rather than Bran and Rickon, as he's been let on the information shared by Lord Wyman.

The biggest problem with this theory is the Mance/Crowfood connection, as Crowfood demanded Mance's skull as a term of his alliance with Stannis. Of coruse, it's very unlikely Crowfood knows what Mance looks like. If Mance made contact with Crowfood, he could have easily been posing as someone else, probably Abel, though admitting he was an agent sent by Stannis. He could have even brought Crowfood Rattleshirt's skull in place of his own!

So to summarize the theory:

1. Ser Kyle Condon rejoins Roose Bolton following the Red Wedding and marches with him to Barrowtown, where he joins his mistress, Lady Jonella Cerwyn.

2. Mance Rayder, posing as Abel the Bard, delivers a false skull to Crowfood on his way to Long Lake, learns the wedding location has been changed to Winterfell, and goes ahead to infiltrate with the intent of rescuing Arya.

3. At Barrowtown, Wyman Manderly informs Lady Jonella of the true events of the Sack of Winterfell, Ramsay's part in her brother's death, and the survival of the Stark boys. Ser Kyle, who knew the Miller, realizes that Theon murdered his own son or sons.

4. Lady Jonella and Ser Kyle return to Castle Cerwyn while Wyman Manderly proceeds to Winterfell with Roose and his allies.

5. The Washerwomen periodically attempt to subtley interrogate Theon, to find out if he can be of any use.

6. Ser Kyle intercepts Crowfood before he reaches Winterfell and informs him of the need to rescue Theon. He also informs Crowfood of the survival of the Stark boys, and that Theon murdered his own kin instead of the Starks. Crowfood informs Ser Kyle that upon entering Winterfell he can enlist the assistance of Abel the Bard, who is already inside attempting to rescue Arya.

7. Ser Kyle enters Winterfell just prior to Crowfood's arrival, perhaps freely, as an envoy of Lady Cerwyn, who Roose either believes to be either an ally or inconsequential. Ser Hyle encounters Theon and calls him a Kinslayer, knowing he was the father of at least one of the Miller's boys.

8. Crowfood Umber arrives and sounds warhorns outside Winterfell's walls.

9. Ser Kyle makes contact with Abel and the Washerwomen to coordinate their escape attempts. He gives them the same information he gave Crowfood about the boys Theon killed.

9. The Washerwomen accost Theon in the Godswood, call him a Kinslayer, and bring him to Abel to let him in on the plan.

10. Theon and Arya escape as the Manderly and Frey forces are preparing to engage Crowfood (who they believe to be Stannis) outside the Walls of Winterfell.

11. Crowfood finds Theon, as planned, outside the walls of Winterfell. He calls Theon a Kinslayer, and arranges to have he and Arya brought to Stannis for protection.

Thus, I nominate Ser Kyle Condon as a candidate for the HM. It takes a lot of effort to get there, but it wraps up nicely, seeming to fit every piece of evidence we've been given, and doesn't leave any loose ends I'm aware of, which is more than I can say for most of the other possibilities.

Great Post

[Steve Moss II]

Great ideas and discussion. Certainly thought provoking.