Mafia Game 93.5 - The Tourney at Lannisport - Game Over!

[House Ashford]

If it helps then I'd be willing to vote for night.

[House Upcliff]

A VPI isn't a CI though. There are no CIs in this game, as there are no roles.

And do we have someone that's that strong a VPI that right now no-one will even consider suspecting them, even through a fog of WIFOM?

[House Upcliff]

If it helps then I'd be willing to vote for night.

I'd probably prefer us to just let the timer run down really. Give us extra re-read time now we have strong information.

Then again, once we're all set on our votes for today, we might as well go night I guess.

[House Ashford]

I'd probably prefer us to just let the timer run down really. Give us extra re-read time now we have strong information.

Then again, once we're all set on our votes for today, we might as well go night I guess.

Ah ok, that makes more sense.

[House Upcliff]

Swyft, if you agree with me and Brax to go to night though, it means a lynch today is impossible and we get our way. :-p

[House Connington]

A VPI isn't a CI though. There are no CIs in this game, as there are no roles.

And do we have someone that's that strong a VPI that right now no-one will even consider suspecting them, even through a fog of WIFOM?

Well...maybe not if it comes down to the real doubting stages. Still, I think it's very unlikely that Marbrand is scum at this stage...he was a very very strong advocate of a Farman lynch for 2 days straight. I'd always have a very small doubt that he might be the type of player who'd take the risk of getting rid of his partner for a team victory, but I find it very unlikely. Thinking straight, he's VPI

[House Upcliff]

Anyway, after the Crake kill, who knows? The killer might take out our #1 target. :P

[House Clegane]

I'm one of those people that is never a fan of going to night. If the NK just takes out a person that everyone thinks is town, our position is actually weakened. IMO, obviously.

Agree here. More townies = more town advantage > having one less person.

Anyways, Kennings. Re-read my case. Re-read Farman. Vote.

[House Dondarrion]

Vote Count #50

It is Day Four.

6 Players remain: House Brax, House Falwell, House Jast, House Kenning, House Marbrand, House Swyft.

With 8 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 3 to go to night.

1 Vote for House Falwell (Swyft)

1 Vote for House Kenning (Marbrand)

Players not voting: House Brax, House Falwell, House Jast, House Kenning,

MODERATOR NOTICE: Timer set to 8/8/12 - End of Day - 8:40 AM - London Time

[House Dondarrion]

/MOD OUT. Pless-Mod will probably be around in four or five hours.

[House Dondarrion]

No posts in 11 Hours? That's a record.

[House Dondarrion]

About 12 Hours remaining for mass-modkill

[House Connington]

Fear not, Falwell is here!! And he's got stuff to discuss!

Right...I started re-reading Farman before realising that that's not good enough. I need to see every single bit of interaction between Farman and our surviving players. So I decided to reread the whole game. It took a while, there was a good section where Farman was referenced in every single post. But anyway, I noted down each post where he was mentioned (by the remaining players), even in passing.

I haven't assessed it all yet, there is quite a lot of information there, but I'll post my thoughts on each possible partnership as soon as I possibly can.

EDIT: One thing I will say after reading back is I don't know how we didn't lynch Farman on day 2. His reactions to Marbrand's pressing about the timing of his vote was really really horrible. I suppose it's easy to see that in hindsight though.

[House Dayne]

I'm going to be around in about 2 hours. Have not been able to get away from RL stuff today until now.

[House Connington]

Farman-Marbrand Partnership

I'll start with the one I thought was least likely pre-reread. They did have a lot of interaction though, mostly Marbrand calling for Farman's lynch. But I will try and keep this one as brief as possible.

Marbrand1 had no interaction at all with Farman.

Marbrand2 comes in putting Farman in his 2nd tier, as his 3rd highest suspect.

At the start of day 2, Marbrand posts a case on Farman (post 406), showing his vote switch to Estren, which was the hammer. He votes Brax though

It takes a while for Farman to respond but once he does, Marbrand puts him in his top tier and votes him

Marbrand then switches his vote to me, saying Farman can die another time

But not long after that, Marbrand really begins to attack Farman. He asks him about his vote switch, whether he saw Serrett's vote before hammering.

Farman seems quite pressurised and this post seems particularly bad to me:

I'm pretty sure I saw Serrett's vote. And I asked that hammer question because I didn't khow many votes Estren had.

Marbrand really rips into Farman after that, putting him under enormous pressure, showing a contradiction in his posts too.

At this stage Farman has Marbrand in his 2nd tier, because he can't understand his day 2 play.

Marbrand then switches his vote back to Farman, saying his lynch is more likely

In post 640, he shows how panicky Farman's responses to Kenning seemed

Basically spent the rest of the day calling for a Farman lynch, seemed exasperated when Bettley was lynched

On Day 3, he starts with vote on me but in post 827, he switches to Farman saying he feels more confident about that lynch

Examines some possible partnerships with Farman, as it looks likely he will be lynched

Farman examines his lynch mob, says Marbrand's vote isn't weird

Marbrand calls for the hammer numerous times

Says Kenning is Farman's partner, posts a long case

There was a lot more stuff there, but I think I've shown the main points. Marbrand acted very aggressively towards Farman for most of Day 2 and 3. He was the main person championing a Farman lynch for most of the game. While it's not beyond the boundaries of possibility that he'd lynch his partner to look good himself, I find it unlikely. He basically tore Farman to pieces, drew some horrible reactions from him, and convinced others to vote him too.

Verdict: Possibilities of a partnership are very very unlikely.

[House Ashford]

Im back now, away to be doing some re-reading. Have the mods been changing the title every day?

*ETA* Also I agree with you on the fact that Marbrand is almost certainly not Farmans partner.

[House Dayne]

I'm not sure about the Marbrand-Farman partnership. It looks good for Marbrand, but I can honestly see Marbrand pull this kind of thing. He's almost cleared now by most, so it was a perfect strategy if this was the plan. I really have to read and think more on this one before I clear Marbrand as partner.

[House Ashford]

I got to page 15 where Swyft says that when he said "Falman" he was talking about Falwell and not Farman. Curse you Swyft, now I need to re-read more :-(

[House Connington]

Farman-Kenning Partnership

This is the one that Marbrand seems to think is most likely, let's see if I agree from my examination of their interaction.

Early day 1, Kenning asks why Farman isn't voting Estren. Farman says Estren is overreacting but his vote is reasonable.

Kenning thinks Farman and Estren might be distancing.

However in post 137, Kenning says Farman is off the hook.

But in post 138, he changes his mind, saying that Farman is main suspect if Estren flips scum

Slightly later on, he says Farman is his no. 2 suspect

In post 251, Farman turns and goes against public opinion, voting Kenning

There seems to be a massive gap in interaction between the 2 then. After Reyne dies, Jast examines his suspects, Kenning said Reyne's reasons for Farman felt weaker than his main suspects

Again Farman votes Kenning says, he's voting only 1 suspect. 30 posts later, he repeats that, Kenning is in his top tier

Kenning calls his attack lazy, picks on Farman's hammering post, says he's happy with a Farman lynch

Here he votes him:

How the hell do you skip past the most obvious solution of "He's an innocent who believed Estren was a fellow innocent" there?

I don't like Marbrand. I think there's a great chance he's scum. But even I won't say he's either scum or some weird hipster playing by his own rules when it comes to his Estren defence.

Sorry Farman. You've just taken his place as my #1 scum.

This is followed by a little scuffle, so to speak, with both of them attacking each other

Kenning disappointed with Farman's "lynch me" post

Soon after, Kenning attacks a wishy-washy Farman post where he discusses Jast's Crakehall-Falwell theory (post 619)

At this stage, Farman switches his vote from Kenning to Crakehall

Around the same, Kenning switches his vote from Farman to Bettley, saying it's about as likely In hindsight, this looks a bit odd

Kenning starts the next day with a vote on me, but says Farman is a good lynch

Makes tiers, with Farman in top tier, along with Brax and me...Brax is removed a few posts later

In post 848, he's disgusted by Farman's defence and votes him

Nothing else too important, I don't think, Kenning is half-paranoid about us lynching someone like Jast over Farman, seems to definitely want a Farman lynch now

When Farman examines his lynch mob, he says Kenning's vote is totally shit, just trying to create bandwagon

Kenning mentions the fact that he thinks Farman is very green and probably a junior scum partner

Before I looked this, I thought a Kenning-Farman partnership was unlikely, but after looking at it, I can't rule it out completely. For someone who said that Farman was his no. 2 suspect, he ignored him for an awful long time. I suppose the main point against this partnership is Farman's vote on Kenning which he kept on for basically the whole game. There's distancing but when both partners are in a reasonably strong position, do you vote for them?? It seems a bit unlikely...

But Kenning only started pushing Farman properly after the Marbrand case. I think Farman's responses at that time were particularly poor, so Kenning couldn't help but notice them. But he did switch his vote on Day 2 to Crakehall before leaving...if he had left his vote on Farman, the Farman lynch probably would have happened on Day 2. It's interesting.

Again, he does start the next day with a vote on me rather than Farman but soon switches as he realises that due to momentum and Farman's responses, he is by far the more likely candidate. Or else he just think he's scummier, can't rule that out. So, looking at their interaction, I definitely couldn't rule it out.

Verdict: Farman's case and vote on Kenning which was there for a lot of day 1, most of day 2 until a late switch to Bettley (which saved Farman's skin) is the one thing that makes me think this is unlikely. I know Marbrand doesn't agree with this. On the other hand, there is enough weird things there, and possibly distancing and bussing at crucial times to make it likely. Add in the fact that Kenning's switch to Crakehall probably saved Farman day 2. It's left me doubting... of course this does not take into account overall play which has made me think Kenning is town for most of the game. But solely on a partnership, it is possible.

[House Connington]

That one took a while to write-up, I'll do Swyft next. But I'm going to have to leave for a while, I'm sorry.