Missunderstanding the role of prophecy in the story we are being told

[hurga]

We, the fantasy readers, love the greater scheme. We love discussing it, we interpret the meaning of vague statements and put them into context. We love to predict things that are going to happen in the future. We like to be clever. All hose things are reasonable and good. They are fun.

However, you have to put prophecy/foreshadowing into the context of the story that is told, not only the world that it is happening in. The following text will deal with how we, the reader, are heavily missunderstanding the role of divine providence in the story we are told.

A SONG OF PROPHECY AND MAGIC

You cannot argue that prophecy and foreshadowing are heavily featured in the story. Sure, Martin has created a wonderful world, that is very empty of magic. However, his story isn't.

Our POV characters come into contacts with prophets, they learn how to look into the past, they are hinted to be prophetised sons and daughters that will make up the magical number of "three heads of the dragon", they dream of things that come true. They are being told by a witch about people that they will never know being thrown down from bridges by assassins that only we the reader understand by cross-reading different chapters in the book. They come into contact with people who have kings blood and deal with people who believe and show powers by using kings blood.

There is no argue, prophecy and magic are real powers in this world. We will not find out whether R'hollor is a real deity, but we can tell that some of it's followers use magical powers or have prophetic gifts.

A HEALTHY SCEPTICISM AGAINST PROPHETS

With the latest installment of the series, we have had the chance to look into the head of one of the living main sources for prophecies. Even before her POV chapter, the readers have viewed Melissandre of Asshai with much scepticism. I am not talking about the person who she is (sacrificing living people for a greater good) but for how she views herself as a prophet and how we the readers perceive her powers. A general consense I would sign is YES she has powers and can glimpse parts of the "greater scheme" but NO she cannot put those into context and is heavily missinterpreting the things that she sees the way she want's to see them.

Of course, I am telling you nothing new.

However, what we should keep in mind, the storry of Melissandre is the story of the reader.

We are convinced that she is wrong with Stannis being Azor Ahai as we might have come to the conclussion that it is (in some form or another) Jon Snow. And so we do what Mellisandre does the best: Catching something of "the greater scheme", looking at how to apply the information we got and never questioning the concept of prophecy itself.

AN UNHEALTHY WILLINGNESS FOR PROPHECIES

And here is the problem: We believe in the greater good of the prophetic powers that this world has. Yes, the prophet might be wrong but no, the prophecy is right as long as we the reader will preceive at one part of the story that it comes true. However, I am strongly convinced that this is not the way that Martin wants us to view prophecies at all.

To put this into conext, we need to look at how we think (and to some extent want) the story to unfold further. Many believe that the main prophecies (Azhor Ahai, the three dragon heads, the last hero) will in some way or another overlap with each other and that this will be a key element to save the life itself from the threat that is lurking beyond the wall. Even if this looks too much black and white and quite too easy, I assume it will in some way or another at least be a central part of the last act of the story.

However, there is NO solution to the story that i can imagine which will justify the prophecy itself. Of course, in some way or another life will be saved and one or more prophecies will be fullfilled. But what possible solution can give us the pay off that would be required?

You know what would have made the situation at the wall much better than it currently is?

A stable kingdom.

Maybe a kingdom that would have existed if poor Rhaegar was not convinced to fulfill something he read in a book by starting a civil war.

Maybe a kingdom that would have existed if Melissandre was not concerned in the first place with the claim for the iron throne of her chosen saviour. You get the image that she only learns by accident of the true danger and the wall when Davos reads the letter.

What good is a prophecy that saves the world, if it only leads to a civil war which in turn leads to a Baratheon reign which in turns leads to another civil war and Ned Stark, Robb Stark and most of the military forces leaving the north all in turn.

What good is a prophecy if it only works to bring Stannis to the Wall AFTER he has lost the main part of his massive host on the black water.

What good is a divine providence that is meant to come true, if it only comes true by accident and would have worked out better if it was not there in the first place?

We have easily learned to mistrust the prophet in this story, we also have to learn mistrusting prophecy itself.

Just like we cannot trust Melissandre's judgment only because she can predict who is trying to kill her in advance, we should not accept the reason for a prophecy just because some way or another parts of it will come true.

We should not question why Daenerys is in Mereen and not fullfilling a prophecy to save the world.

We should question why in the first place parts of the prophecy lead to the start of a civil war that destroyed her house and lead her into exile in first place.

Cersei will not be brought down by one of her brothers because of the prophecy in the first place. The prophecy will bring her down because of the person she has become by being paranoid all her life, partly due to the self-fulfilling character of it.

This is a story about persons. Sure you might argue that characters (even some POV ones) only exist as a tool to show us some event, a place or to tell a part of the story. But at no point we are suggested that it is a good thing that a living being in this world exists to fulfil a prohecy.

We have learned to accept that the feudal system in this story is flawed and has lead to countless tragedies. We have learned to view religions in this world with much scepticism and that they seldom lead to the people being "better". However, we always seem to justify the role of prophecy in this story and cannot accept that it is wrong in the first, even if it comes true.

This is a story with humanistic views. Even if the people in the story are mainly cruel and unethical, the story itself is a strong statement for humanism and in no way is glamorizing a cyinical worldview. This would strongly collide with any form of predestination.

I want to argue that our main reason for the one Melissandre chapter we got is not to show that she and her interpretation of the prophecy is wrong, but that believing in a prophecy itself is no good.

This is not a story that is against prophets. It is a story against prophecies.

[The Red Melli]

GRRM has already said that Varys and Mel are the most misunderstood characters in ASOIAF.

What's interesting is Melisandre does everything for the greater good but none or little has turned out to be good that's what makes her more Villian - greyish.

I expect more Mel chapters in WoW. And I think we will see a different Melisandre.

http://youtu.be/E5_QQreskNI?t=3m50s

[Crowford]

Feel liked.

This blind acceptance of the concept of prophecy in the fandom also bugs me a lot.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

:agree: so very, very much.

[roxWolfox]

I read this a few times, chuckling quite often (in a good way), because everything you wrote I agreed with, yet disagreed with at the same time...and then it hit me why I am so fascinated with prophecies, even though it goes against my 'scientific' approach to life.

I'm Native Canadian (Arctic Indian), and therein lies my intellectual/spiritual dichotomy (for lack of a better word at this time).

The northern natives have a prophecy, a doom, that Tundra will return and destroy the land and people of the snow and ice. My brain tells me 'climate change', but my spirit can't say no to an angry great spirit, suddenly released from an ice-cell he was confined to a few thousand years ago, coming back and hellbent on revenge.

Especially appealing to my 'prophecy fix' is the legendary Tecumseh (using British North American spelling of his name for convenience sake); born during a meteor shower, his name means 'Panther in/across the sky' or 'Shooting Star'. There is a lot of prophecy in the story telling of his life. From the Presidents Curse, to his promised return (he died in 1813), prediction of an earthquake...a lot has been written about him over the years. This is an interesting take on him if you care to read about it: http://www.ratical.c...e/Tecumseh.html

So, though I agree with you about prophetic truths/happenings being more or less coincidental, my faith in my ancestral roots keeps me hoping that they have meaning, and a reason for their existence (other than just to make a story more interesting).

Great post, btw.

[yolkboy]

I find your understanding of prophesies, as well as your basic arguement, to be flawed.

AN UNHEALTHY WILLINGNESS FOR PROPHECIES

And here is the problem: We believe in the greater good of the prophetic powers that this world has.

It's not the job of prophesies to be good or bad. They are readings of the future. Some of the prophesies are pretty dark and not at all concerned with good.

Yes, the prophet might be wrong but no, the prophecy is right as long as we the reader will preceive at one part of the story that it comes true. However, I am strongly convinced that this is not the way that Martin wants us to view prophecies at all.

It's lucky Moqorro's prophesies came true, to an unbelieveable degree of accuracy, otherwise he'd still be floating in the sea.

Many believe that the main prophecies (Azhor Ahai, the three dragon heads, the last hero)

The last hero was never presented as a prophesy at all - it's folklore.

will in some way or another overlap with each other and that this will be a key element to save the life itself from the threat that is lurking beyond the wall.

Actually lots of people don't believe that.

However, there is NO solution to the story that i can imagine which will justify the prophecy itself.

A prophesy doesn't need to be justified, it's a reading of the future. It's either fulfilled or it isn't.

Of course, in some way or another life will be saved and one or more prophecies will be fullfilled. But what possible solution can give us the pay off that would be required?

GRRM can give us his solution, and we can individually judge the pay off.

You know what would have made the situation at the wall much better than it currently is?

A stable kingdom.

It's not the job of prophesies to create good or peace. They are merely readings of the future.

Maybe a kingdom that would have existed if poor Rhaegar was not convinced to fulfill something he read in a book by starting a civil war.

You're saying that a character has absolutely no free will because of a book he read.

Maybe a kingdom that would have existed if Melissandre was not concerned in the first place with the claim for the iron throne of her chosen saviour. You get the image that she only learns by accident of the true danger and the wall when Davos reads the letter.

Mel is known for misinterpreting prophesies. It's not the fault of the prophesies/flames themselves.

What good is a prophecy that saves the world,

I imagine a prophesy that saves the World is pretty handy.

if it only leads to a civil war which in turn leads to a Baratheon reign which in turns leads to another civil war and Ned Stark, Robb Stark and most of the military forces leaving the north all in turn.

What good is a prophecy if it only works to bring Stannis to the Wall AFTER he has lost the main part of his massive host on the black water.

A prophesy is not a sentient being. It's a reading of the future. Characters can indulge or ignore as much as they want.

What good is a divine providence that is meant to come true, if it only comes true by accident and would have worked out better if it was not there in the first place?

The idea of prophesies coming true is that there ARE no accidents, and fate has simply run it's course. They are readings of the future. It throws up some interesting/boring questions regarding free will, and I'm of the opinion free will and fate can co-exist (at least in GRRM's World) but fuck let's no go there or I will become a philosphy student again and start reading Descartes whilst getting stoned.

We have easily learned to mistrust the prophet in this story, we also have to learn mistrusting prophecy itself.

Just like we cannot trust Melissandre's judgment only because she can predict who is trying to kill her in advance, we should not accept the reason for a prophecy just because some way or another parts of it will come true.

I guess in the bigger picture, we will have to wait until the story is finished.

We should not question why Daenerys is in Mereen and not fullfilling a prophecy to save the world.

We should question why in the first place parts of the prophecy lead to the start of a civil war that destroyed her house and lead her into exile in first place.

Again, you are placing so much blame on prophesy and Rhaegar's book, and none on the many people involved. You sound like you would be a great advocate for censorship.

Cersei will not be brought down by one of her brothers because of the prophecy in the first place. The prophecy will bring her down because of the person she has become by being paranoid all her life, partly due to the self-fulfilling character of it.

It's certainly an interesting one. I don't think what you've written makes sense, so I can't comment. BTW, the prophesy states THE little brother will kill her, not neccessarily her little brother.

This is a story about persons. Sure you might argue that characters (even some POV ones) only exist as a tool to show us some event, a place or to tell a part of the story. But at no point we are suggested that it is a good thing that a living being in this world exists to fulfil a prohecy.

Why does that make any difference to our outlook on prophesies? It's a non-arguement

[hurga]

I find your understanding of prophesies, as well as your basic arguement, to be flawed.

Hello and thanks for the feedback.

And here is the problem: We believe in the greater good of the prophetic powers that this world has.

It's not the job of prophesies to be good or bad. They are readings of the future. Some of the prophesies are pretty dark and not at all concerned with good.

And yet, readers (I really do not want to do a strawman on you, but I honestly think a big group of the people who discuss the series) deal with the prophecies as if the fulfillment of them is one of the main concerns of the series. I do not want to prohibit anybody to guess who the first, third or one hundred head of the dragon is, but I find it highly irritating how people are so inclined to believe that the characters we are reading hundreds of pages about are there mainly to fulfill a place in some prophecy.

Just look at how many of the discussions on this board are about who plays which role in what prophecy (again, nothing wrong with that as it is a funny, vague guessing game).

Settling in on a prophecy CAN be good or bad, and we have accepted that for the characters in the series (like saying "Melissandre is causing harm by believing XYZ"). Why should we not take a look at ourselves and question why we are so willing to believe in the prophecies within a story that we are so invested in.

Yes, the prophet might be wrong but no, the prophecy is right as long as we the reader will preceive at one part of the story that it comes true. However, I am strongly convinced that this is not the way that Martin wants us to view prophecies at all.

It's lucky Moqorro's prophesies came true, to an unbelieveable degree of accuracy, otherwise he'd still be floating in the sea.

I have to be honest, you lost me there :) . I do not understand what you are trying to say? That Moqorro survived because he was very lucky, or that there is a no-chance-for-survival situation without prophetic powers? I am not saying that there are no prophetic powers in this world.

Many believe that the main prophecies (Azhor Ahai, the three dragon heads, the last hero)

The last hero was never presented as a prophesy at all - it's folklore.

The last hero appears from time to time in some discussion here when talking about future roles of our main characters. I started this discussion with the perception of prophecies within the fandom in mind and if there are people who believe that the last hero story will repeat again, they are believing in a prophetic story (even if it may not be a prophecy within book canon).

But you are right, it is only folklore, so let's just stick with the other two for discussions sake.

will in some way or another overlap with each other and that this will be a key element to save the life itself from the threat that is lurking beyond the wall.

Actually lots of people don't believe that.

I really would be suprised if the Azhor Ahai story and the three headed dragon will not play a part in the conclusion of the story and will connect in one way or another (be it only because we do not have an infinite amount of major POVs). I am quite sure that you are right that lots of people do not believe that, but there are enough people on this board alone who try to connect both prophecies. At least enough that I mention it in this topic, as it is a discussion about our perception of prophecy.

However, there is NO solution to the story that i can imagine which will justify the prophecy itself.

A prophesy doesn't need to be justified, it's a reading of the future. It's either fulfilled or it isn't.

If you view a prophecy as a force of nature or a power within the world, then you are right, there is nothing you have to justify. As little as you need to justify a tidal wave or gravity.

However, you can definitely discuss the readers investment into a prophecy and his willingness to believe that one of the main concerns of the story is to put peron X into situation Y zu fulfill Z.

You know what would have made the situation at the wall much better than it currently is?

A stable kingdom.

It's not the job of prophesies to create good or peace. They are merely readings of the future.

Maybe a kingdom that would have existed if poor Rhaegar was not convinced to fulfill something he read in a book by starting a civil war.

You're saying that a character has absolutely no free will because of a book he read.

Again, I am neither blaming the prophecy itself nor Rhaegar. This is about how we in the outside world deal with prophecies and the importance they play for us in the story. At least I see a very strong acceptance of prophecies as a main device of story telling within the fandom. You could argue that I am wrong and I could not proove it because I have not worked up statistics about how many people are how concerned with prophecies.

What good is a divine providence that is meant to come true, if it only comes true by accident and would have worked out better if it was not there in the first place?

The idea of prophesies coming true is that there ARE no accidents, and fate has simply run it's course. They are readings of the future. It throws up some interesting/boring questions regarding free will, and I'm of the opinion free will and fate can co-exist (at least in GRRM's World) but fuck let's no go there or I will become a philosphy student again and start reading Descartes whilst getting stoned.

Ok, lets not go there. :) Maybe I should re-formulate my main concern once again, as you think that I have a problem with the concept of prophecy within the story, while my problem with all of this is only how we the people thinking about the story are dealing with prophecies.

We spend many hours (days, if you have re-read the series) within the heads of our characters. We watch them love, hate, we watch them being happy and being sad. We watch them while they have sex, while they kill somebody or think about their role in life. We watch them eat, drink.

It would really make me sad to think that at the end of the story, this was a story about making Jon or Daenerys to Azor Ahai. While prophecy can play a part in mythical story with dragons and zombies, I find it should clearly play a very little role for us in our perception of a person which was mainly written to be a living being and not a pawn on a chess board. I do not want to (neither can I) dictate anybody why he has to be invested into Martins story. However I think that I have at least the right to argue that people would be missing a lot if they reduce the roles of characters to be just set-ups for the fulfilment of something.

Or to put it in other words: I do not want to argue that there is place for fate in the fantasy world. The question is: How willingly should we as the reader accept it when discussing characters and their life.

Again, you are placing so much blame on prophesy and Rhaegar's book, and none on the many people involved. You sound like you would be a great advocate for censorship.

Don't let yourself get carried away, I think it is not necessary to accuse me of promoting censorship.

I am not blaming Rhaegar or his book within the story. Why? Because I can accept that prophecy is a real power within the story. It would be like blaming somebody within the story for believing in dragons while knowing that they exist in this world.

However, I should be allowed to compare how prophecies work within Martin's story and how we the readers perceive them. While vague at best within the 5 books we have read so far, people on the boards are concerned time and time again with working on the master plan to decipher them. My examples are there to show how we should not perceive the series as some great riddle which is there to be solved. Using the fulfilment of prophecy as a "theory of everything" is something that has not been promoted in the story that we have heard so far.

Cersei will not be brought down by one of her brothers because of the prophecy in the first place. The prophecy will bring her down because of the person she has become by being paranoid all her life, partly due to the self-fulfilling character of it.

It's certainly an interesting one. I don't think what you've written makes sense, so I can't comment. BTW, the prophesy states THE little brother will kill her, not neccessarily her little brother.

If you allow me, I would want to avoid to go into the semantics of the prophecy, god knows there are enough Valonqar topics. You can argue that it will be somebody else than one of her brothers, but I am strongly convinced that being paranoid all her life about the fulfilment of a prophecy has played a big part in how she has dealed with those around her and how she has been setting up her own downfall.

This is a story about persons. Sure you might argue that characters (even some POV ones) only exist as a tool to show us some event, a place or to tell a part of the story. But at no point we are suggested that it is a good thing that a living being in this world exists to fulfil a prohecy.

Why does that make any difference to our outlook on prophesies? It's a non-arguement

Thought you did not want to deal with the free will and fate stuff ;) ?

Okay, lets not indulge too much into that matter, but I would want to argue that as soon as you reduce somebody to a pre-destined fate, you are very much questioning the existence of his free will.

But thanks for the feedback.

[Rhymes with Weak]

I've noticed three things on this forum:

-People want their favorite characters to be secret targs

-People want characters who have been portrayed as targs not to actually be targs

-People love their weird little prophesies

[Roadside Rose]

I read the part regarding prophecies, and I'd agree with some of it. And I like how you noted that Melisandre was like the reader, some of what she saw in the flames came true, but the way she interpreted it was wrong.

To be really honest, I don't think Martin makes his prophecies easy to interpret. And the fact we reach a conclusion and then start building our theories based on an existing conclusion (because everybody else says it's true) is where we fail.

The second reason because readers get invested into one character so much that they deliberately make him/her fulfill all the prophecies.

[Morienthar]

You can generally classify prophecies in fantasy into two types..

The Self fulfilling ones

The Ones that need to be worked at.

But there is the odd third group which comes true several times,So it is almost impossible to know if it has actually been fulfilled,I think most of GRRM's prophecies will fall into this category by the end.