Stannis' Flight to Dragonstone

[Lost Melnibonean]

No hint for that at all. Seems to have been his own idea.

But so many believe LF put everything in motion. Since Jon learn of the twincest from Stannis, Stannis must have learned it, directly or indirectly, from Petyr, if Petyr did set set everything in motion, no?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But so many believe LF put everything in motion. Since Jon learn of the twincest from Stannis, Stannis must have learned it, directly or indirectly, from Petyr, if Petyr did set set everything in motion, no?

That's straight out of the blue. There is not a single hint for it. Of course it's currently impossible to disprove it, but without a single hint for it, I consider that theory wishful thinking. LF is neither omniscient nor almighty. And he is definitely not involved in every plot or twist.

Furthermore, LF had enough of a hand in everything else to count as putting everything in motion.

[Lost Melnibonean]

That's straight out of the blue. There is not a single hint for it. Of course it's currently impossible to disprove it, but without a single hint for it, I consider that theory wishful thinking. LF is neither omniscient nor almighty. And he is definitely not involved in every plot or twist.

Furthermore, LF had enough of a hand in everything else to count as putting everything in motion.

I'm not arguing, just puzzling it out. We know Petyr had Lysa kill Jon Arryn. Why? There is no suggestion that Petyr had any reason to fear Jon. Apparently Jon was blissfully unaware of Petyr's boast that he had bedded both Tully girls at Riverrun. Since Stannis and Robert knew that Petyr was corrupt, Jon Arryn must have known too, but since Robert tolerated it, Jon probably did too. So Petyr was not reacting to a threat. He had some proactive motive. We know he didn't desire Lysa. He was using her to gain favor from Jon. So why remove Jon? Jon held three titles, Hand of the King, Warden of the East & Lord of the Eriye to which all the lords of Mountain and Vale were sworn. So, Petyr must have been trying to create a void which he could have filled. We know that Petyr could not hope to succeed to Lord Consort of the Eyrie, at least at that time...

"To be sure. It would not have been fitting for a daughter of Riverrun to marry one so far below her." Littlefinger spread his hands. "Now, though a match between the Lady of the Eyrie and the Lord of Harrenhal is not so unthinkable, is it?"

...

Tyrion studied the slender man with the pointed beard and irreverent grey-green eyes. Lord of Harrenhal an empty honor? Bugger that, Father. Even if he never sets foot in the castle, the title makes this match possible, as he's known all along.

No, it seems more likely that Littlefinger had Lysa kill Jon Arryn to draw the Ned to King's Landing where he could have him killed and cause a war between the Lannisters and the Starks/Tullys & possibly the Baratheons, which would give him the chaos he sought. That Robert would appoint the Ned was a reasonable assumption.

Did Petyr know about the twincest before Stannis told Jon? It's more likely Petyr's character guessed at it than Stannis's character, isn't it? And by going to Stannis indirectly, he is able to keep himself out of it.

[Stormland's Fury]

Did Petyr know about the twincest before Stannis told Jon? It's more likely Petyr's character guessed at it than Stannis's character, isn't it? And by going to Stannis indirectly, he is able to keep himself out of it.

Somehow Stannis strikes me as a person who doesn't really care for people like Littlefinger.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Somehow Stannis strikes me as a person who doesn't really care for people like Littlefinger.

I agree. But Petyr's a sly cat who could have whispered something to make Stannis think. Or he could have had somebody else whisper something to Stannis.

[Stormland's Fury]

I agree. But Petyr's a sly cat who could have whispered something to make Stannis think. Or he could have had somebody else whisper something to Stannis.

yes, that's a possibilty. But Stannis seems to surprisingly well aware who might whisper what. Like he would notice if it was LF's handiwork, he seemed to me like he was skeptical of basically anything that was going on in KL, including his brothers.

[Lost Melnibonean]

yes, that's a possibilty. But Stannis seems to surprisingly well aware who might whisper what. Like he would notice if it was LF's handiwork, he seemed to me like he was skeptical of basically anything that was going on in KL, including his brothers.

Exactly. All Littlefinger had to do was whisper the right thing or have somebody else whisper the right thing in the right ear and viola! Skeptical Stannis would do the rest.

[Stormland's Fury]

Exactly. All Littlefinger had to do was whisper the right thing or have somebody else whisper the right thing in the right ear and viola! Skeptical Stannis would do the rest.

Stannis hasn't any friends and he was the one who initiated it. I don't really know who Stannis would trust in any capacity in King's Landing. Except Jon Arryn but he told him. I think Stannis looked at his daughter, then at Robert's kids, and noticed that Joffrey looks like Jaimie. He was certainly in the position to come to that conclusion by himself.

It's still possible that LF could have initiatewd it but there's simply no evidence either.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Stannis hasn't any friends and he was the one who initiated it. I don't really know who Stannis would trust in any capacity in King's Landing. Except Jon Arryn but he told him. I think Stannis looked at his daughter, then at Robert's kids, and noticed that Joffrey looks like Jaimie. He was certainly in the position to come to that conclusion by himself.

It's still possible that LF could have initiatewd it but there's simply no evidence either.

Then why didn't the rest of King's Landing? The Tyrells were just itching to get rid of Cersei. They would have jumped on this. Robert was supposed to have inspired great loyalty. Wouldn't one of his friends have tried to get at the truth for Robert's benefit? And if it really was that obvious wouldn't gossip have reached Robert's ears?

[Stormland's Fury]

Then why didn't the rest of King's Landing? The Tyrells were just itching to get rid of Cersei. They would have jumped on this. Robert was supposed to have inspired great loyalty. Wouldn't one of his friends have tried to get at the truth for Robert's benefit? And if it really was that obvious wouldn't gossip have reached Robert's ears?

Because the rest of KL isn't in the closer circle of the royal family and they certainly don't hang out with Joff and especially Shireen all the time. She was a recluse at best.

[A Man Has Said]

The OP makes some good points that seem designed to go over well with the Stanstans, but ignores a few 'details' that totally change the picture though. They're not tiny details either. They're huge.

1) - There was really no need at all for Stannis to take flight to Dragonstone to begin with.

You often see it claimed on this forum that he was in fear of his life after the death of Jon Arryn.

But the thing is, everyone assumes that the threat he felt came from the Lannisters (even though it was a Littlefinger/Lysa Arryn plot that killed the Hand.)

So what Lannisters were in King's Landing at this time? Cersei, Jamie and all their children were trekking north to Winterfell, which round trip took almost half a year. The are explicitly described as being accompanied by a large contingent of guards in RED cloaks.

So, no threat to Stannis existed in King's Landing when he left, and he had a presumed duty to be there to rule the kingdom in Robert's absence and to chair meetings of the Small Council. What happened to Mr. "I'm all about duty" on this occasion?

2) - I find the assumption that Robert would have rejected Stannis' theory about the twincest to be iffy at best, in light of:

"Let me tell you a secret, Ned. More than once, I have dreamed of giving up the crown. Take ship for the Free Cities with my horse and my hammer, spend my time warring and whoring, that's what I was made for. The sellsword king! how the singers would love me! You know what stops me? The thought of Joffrey on the throne, with Cersei standing behind him whispering in his ear. My son. How could I have made a son like that, Ned?.... I'm still young, and now that you're here with me, things will be different. We'll make this a reign to sing of, and damn the Lannisters to seven hells."

~ Robert Baratheon

Sure, he's saying this to Ned Stark, not to Stannis. And he does say that it's a secret. But it was certainly public knowledge that Robert felt uncomfortable around all Lannisters, particularly Cersei, and that he was appalled with everything about 'his' son Joffrey. He would have leaped at any excuse to disinherit the lot of them.

If Stannis was at all aware of Renly's plan to get Robert lusting after Margaery, odds of that scenario succeeding go up substantially.

He would have been giving Robert exactly what he wanted most.

Robert may even have been so grateful that he resigned the kingship and appointed the only logical successor in his place - Stannis.

"Hey bro, I'll give your regards to the Golden Company when I join up."

3) - How could you mention Ned lifting the siege of Storm's End while ignoring Stannis' totally dickish, ungrateful response?

"Ned Stark was no friend of mine," he says on a number of occasions, including TO NED'S RECENT WIDOW Catelyn, and to Jon Snow, whose last memory of Ned is, "When we talk again, I'll tell you about your mother. I promise." The pathological lack of sensitivity of that borders on deliberate cruelty. No wonder the man is incapable of making friends.

[Stormland's Fury]

The OP makes some good points that seem designed to go over well with the Stanstans, but ignores a few 'details' that totally change the picture though. They're not tiny details either. They're huge.

1) - There was really no need at all for Stannis to take flight to Dragonstone to begin with.

i am a Stannis supporter but this always annoyed me as well. Or not even the fact that he retreated but that he completely kept his brothers out of the loop. They were still his blood, he could have at least tried to inform Renly what he was planning to do if he thought it too dangerous to tell Robert what he knew.

[Stormland's Fury]

3) - How could you mention Ned lifting the siege of Storm's End while ignoring Stannis' totally dickish, ungrateful response?

"Ned Stark was no friend of mine," he says on a number of occasions, including TO NED'S RECENT WIDOW Catelyn, and to Jon Snow, whose last memory of Ned is, "When we talk again, I'll tell you about your mother. I promise." The pathological lack of sensitivity of that borders on deliberate cruelty. No wonder the man is incapable of making friends.

To be fair he also says that he will avenge his murder nonetheless.

[A Man Has Said]

Did Stannis find out about the twincest from Littlefinger?

No hint for that at all. Seems to have been his own idea.

I think it was his Stannis' own idea, probably coming from him having quite a bit of day-to-day contact with both Renly and Edric Storm.

Renly, Edric and Gendry are all described as looking very much like a young Robert Baratheon.

Sooner or later that's going to sink in and start you asking questions.

In fact, I think it's a bit surprising that more people weren't asking the same questions years earlier.

Renly himself chief among them. Just before Robert's death in fact, Renly arranged to have that deep green suit of armour made by Tobho Mott. Think about that in the context of Brienne's reaction the first time she laid eyes on Gendry. She thought Renly had somehow come back to life.

The icing on the cake is that Ned finally clued in to what Stannis and Jon Arryn was investigating when SANSA blurted out, "But Joffrey's not at all like Robert!" If she could see it, anyone should have been capable of seeing it.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The OP makes some good points that seem designed to go over well with the Stanstans, but ignores a few 'details' that totally change the picture though. They're not tiny details either. They're huge.

1) - There was really no need at all for Stannis to take flight to Dragonstone to begin with.

You often see it claimed on this forum that he was in fear of his life after the death of Jon Arryn.

But the thing is, everyone assumes that the threat he felt came from the Lannisters (even though it was a Littlefinger/Lysa Arryn plot that killed the Hand.)

So what Lannisters were in King's Landing at this time? Cersei, Jamie and all their children were trekking north to Winterfell, which round trip took almost half a year. The are explicitly described as being accompanied by a large contingent of guards in RED cloaks.

So, no threat to Stannis existed in King's Landing when he left, and he had a presumed duty to be there to rule the kingdom in Robert's absence and to chair meetings of the Small Council. What happened to Mr. "I'm all about duty" on this occasion?

2) - I find the assumption that Robert would have rejected Stannis' theory about the twincest to be iffy at best, in light of:

Sure, he's saying this to Ned Stark, not to Stannis. And he does say that it's a secret. But it was certainly public knowledge that Robert felt uncomfortable around all Lannisters, particularly Cersei, and that he was appalled with everything about 'his' son Joffrey. He would have leaped at any excuse to disinherit the lot of them.

If Stannis was at all aware of Renly's plan to get Robert lusting after Margaery, odds of that scenario succeeding go up substantially.

He would have been giving Robert exactly what he wanted most.

Robert may even have been so grateful that he resigned the kingship and appointed the only logical successor in his place - Stannis.

"Hey bro, I'll give your regards to the Golden Company when I join up."

3) - How could you mention Ned lifting the siege of Storm's End while ignoring Stannis' totally dickish, ungrateful response?

"Ned Stark was no friend of mine," he says on a number of occasions, including TO NED'S RECENT WIDOW Catelyn, and to Jon Snow, whose last memory of Ned is, "When we talk again, I'll tell you about your mother. I promise." The pathological lack of sensitivity of that borders on deliberate cruelty. No wonder the man is incapable of making friends.

Show only, no?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Oops.

[Stormland's Fury]

I think it was his Stannis' own idea, probably coming from him having quite a bit of day-to-day contact with both Renly and Edric Storm.

Renly, Edric and Gendry are all described as looking very much like a young Robert Baratheon.

Sooner or later that's going to sink in and start you asking questions.

I think so too, also Stannis had the advantage that he saw his own daughter quite a lot.

[Drake Heath]

I think most lord have some doubts about Cersei's kids being Robert's, but they just don't voice them or have convinced themselves otherwise.

Because it should be pretty obvious to most people that they look nothing like their father.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'm not arguing, just puzzling it out. We know Petyr had Lysa kill Jon Arryn. Why? There is no suggestion that Petyr had any reason to fear Jon. Apparently Jon was blissfully unaware of Petyr's boast that he had bedded both Tully girls at Riverrun. Since Stannis and Robert knew that Petyr was corrupt, Jon Arryn must have known too, but since Robert tolerated it, Jon probably did too. So Petyr was not reacting to a threat. He had some proactive motive. We know he didn't desire Lysa. He was using her to gain favor from Jon. So why remove Jon? Jon held three titles, Hand of the King, Warden of the East & Lord of the Eriye to which all the lords of Mountain and Vale were sworn. So, Petyr must have been trying to create a void which he could have filled. We know that Petyr could not hope to succeed to Lord Consort of the Eyrie, at least at that time...

"To be sure. It would not have been fitting for a daughter of Riverrun to marry one so far below her." Littlefinger spread his hands. "Now, though a match between the Lady of the Eyrie and the Lord of Harrenhal is not so unthinkable, is it?"

...

Tyrion studied the slender man with the pointed beard and irreverent grey-green eyes. Lord of Harrenhal an empty honor? Bugger that, Father. Even if he never sets foot in the castle, the title makes this match possible, as he's known all along.

No, it seems more likely that Littlefinger had Lysa kill Jon Arryn to draw the Ned to King's Landing where he could have him killed and cause a war between the Lannisters and the Starks/Tullys & possibly the Baratheons, which would give him the chaos he sought. That Robert would appoint the Ned was a reasonable assumption.

Did Petyr know about the twincest before Stannis told Jon? It's more likely Petyr's character guessed at it than Stannis's character, isn't it? And by going to Stannis indirectly, he is able to keep himself out of it.

That's spot on, but it does not hint at LF telling Stannis in the first place. Only that he was aware of what was happening.

[Lost Melnibonean]

That's spot on, but it does not hint at LF telling Stannis in the first place. Only that he was aware of what was happening.

So Petyr was biding his time until he observed Stannis and Jon investigating and he formulated his plan?