[ADwD Spoilers!] Melissandre's Prophecy of the Girl on the Dying Horse

[Valinhall]

"I have seen your sister in my fires, fleeing from this marriage they have made for her. Coming here, to you. A girl in grey on a dying horse, I have seen it plain as day. It has not happened yet, but it will."

Supposedly, this prophecy is fulfilled by Alys Karstark, wearing worn clothing and riding a starving horse, coming to the Wall to escape her arranged marriage to her cousin, Cregan. Not Jon's sister, so Mel was a little off, but the Karstarks are distant relatives of the Starks, so it's understandable.

My question is: are we sure that Alys is the resolution to this prophecy, or simply a coincidence?

I seriously doubt Arya could fulfill the prophecy; she's in Braavos and really not the type to go running for someone else to save her either way. That would mean Sansa, who seems set up to marry Harrold Hardyng. It is possible that Littlefinger is deceiving Sansa, that he's instead going to marry her to little Robert (after revealing her identity) so that he can seize control over both Winterfell and the Erie with one move. Obviously Sansa wouldn't like that match, and, if she summoned the willpower to flee (perhaps with help from Varys or from Mel), could only go to one place: the Wall, where her half-brother (or cousin, depending...) Jon is. The gray clothes and dying horse parts don't seem very important.

Sister could also be generic, referencing how the Night's Watch call each other brothers. If Alys fulfills the prophecy, she may become the first female of the Night's Watch, or if she doesn't, then some other girl - someone we know, or someone we don't - would.

I know there's little reason to believe that Alys doesn't fulfill this prophecy, but it's fun to speculate.

[Toccs]

It wasn't a prophecy it was a vision. In a prophecy the wording is important so 'sister' would matter. In a vision however there are no words just images. Mel added the sister part herself because she assumed that's what she was seeing. It's her confirmation bias rather than some prophecy for Arya or Sansa.

[Valinhall]

It wasn't a prophecy it was a vision. In a prophecy the wording is important so 'sister' would matter. In a vision however there are no words just images. Mel added the sister part herself because she assumed that's what she was seeing. It's her confirmation bias rather than some prophecy for Arya or Sansa.

This makes sense, but do we have an example of Mel doing this in the past? That is, adding her own specific words to generic images, such as applying 'Jon's sister' to some random Northern girl.

[Toccs]

Her POV chapter.

[JonSnow4President]

This makes sense, but do we have an example of Mel doing this in the past? That is, adding her own specific words to generic images, such as applying 'Jon's sister' to some random Northern girl.

We have half a hundred times where she has said that the flames do not lie, but it is possible to misread them.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This makes sense, but do we have an example of Mel doing this in the past? That is, adding her own specific words to generic images, such as applying 'Jon's sister' to some random Northern girl.

Yeah. She said she saw Renly taking King's Landing, based on visual images. She actually saw the Tyrell in Renly's armor.

[Scriblerus]

The prophecy could refer to the bloody flux, or "pale mare" that ends up in Meereen along with the actual rider on horse. "Her sister" might read as Jon's "Dragon sister," Daenarys, fleeing from the marriage to Hizdahr. Moreover, in light (R'hllorian perhaps?) of Daenarys's rather fiery exit from the fighting pit, the fire-filled augury could be a more relevant and important sign of her eventual journey to Jon.

[SunflashJT]

The prophecy could refer to the bloody flux, or "pale mare" that ends up in Meereen along with the actual rider on horse. "Her sister" might read as Jon's "Dragon sister," Daenarys, fleeing from the marriage to Hizdahr. Moreover, in light (R'hllorian perhaps?) of Daenarys's rather fiery exit from the fighting pit, the fire-filled augury could be a more relevant and important sign of her eventual journey to Jon.

The vision is described in detail in her POV chapter, the girl is by a lake in the snow. It is not a prophecy either as it is simply a vision.

[Eli Stark]

The vision is described in detail in her POV chapter, the girl is by a lake in the snow. It is not a prophecy either as it is simply a vision.

But what if she just mistakes Drogon for a large horse? Or a sea of grass for a lake? That's an honest mistake. ;-)

[SunflashJT]

But what if she just mistakes Drogon for a large horse? Or a sea of grass for a lake? That's an honest mistake. ;-)

Absolutely, Honest mistakes do happen.

[Scriblerus]

In retrospect, my own "prediction" looks like a stretch. I also should have carefully read the thread for the distinction between prophecy and vision; thanks for the clarification, SunflashJT. But I wonder if that difference couldn't be rendered into a "prophetic vision?" A prophecy could function through visions -- metaphorical or actual -- just as easily as a vision could function as a suggestion or augury. I still don't buy that Alys is the girl in Melisandre's vision; it just seems too conveniently incidental (like Martin is trying to throw us off the scent).