Trial of Joy v .2

[pobeb]

Original Thread: The Trial of Joy

Continuing from the last thread.

Arguments Against:

1) It is confirmed that Howland is in his 30's (no less than 35), yet the High Septon is described as an old man, with a lined face, and thin grey hair.

2) Axes aren't specific to the North, many other people from different regions use axes - specifically the Hill Tribes in the Vale.

3) The septas aren't similar to the She-Bears, as the traits described in each group could be a coincidence.

4) Howland, Maege, and Galbart should be defending the North, not playing the game of thrones in the South.

5) Howland is a devout follower of the Old Gods, and therefore would not have such a vast knowledge of the Faith of Seven.

6) Howland, Maege, and Galbart would not betray the Old Gods by pretending to be members of the Faith.

7) The High Septon had Margery forcefully examined, and is therefore a misogynist - this goes against what we know of Howland's character

8) Cersei must have 7 Kingsguard to defend her, or she is guilty by default.

9) Sandor will not join the Trial of Seven because he has given up his life of violence.

10) The Sand Snakes are not knights, and therefore cannot participate in the Trial of Seven.

11) The OP is listing a number of coincidences: the similarities in Hermit's Hole and the room the High Septon prays in, the similarities between the she-bears and septas, the turtle and Howland, the notable "shivir" both Cersei and Varamyr feel when being stared at by carved faces with powerful eyes, the high septon's weirwood staff as a metaphor, and the position of Theodan Wells as captain of the Faith Militant.

Please let me know if I'm missing anything.

[pobeb]

Interesting parallel from the last thread - unable to add to OP as thread was locked - From Lady Arya's Song:

As to the Mormonts..being the Septas. Here is why GRRM is such a brilliant author and why many of us stay up late nights thinking about theories.

Notice in Areo Hotah's pov. He is recalling his past. " Keep your longaxe sharp, the bearded priests had told him, the day they branded him. He always did.

He then remembers a special day when bells were ringing. He saw his mother in her dress with the squirrel collar, the one she wore but once each year when they went to see the bears (plural) dance down the Sinner's Steps.

Cersei....the tower bells were singing summoning the city to bear witness to her shame.

She pauses at the top of marble steps. The three septas form up on either side one to her right and one to her left and one behind her.

" A sinner comes before you"

Naked shorn barefoot, Cersei made her slow descent down the broad marble steps. The three septas keep pace with her and the last one scurrying behind ringing a bell. " Shame upon the sinner, shame, shame, shame.

This is why its hard to dismiss Pobeb's theory completely. George is so subtle.

[TheonGreyjoy]

Did you just speak about yourself in third person?

I told in the other thread, that it is a good theory, and its well supported from the quotes you present.

But as i read all the 20 pages through, i see the counter answers of specially Antlers Fury. And what he tells make sense. On the paper its a good theory, but it just dont work in practice.

There is some basic elements, why it cant be him. Religion, motives and his age.

The axes thing, is really stretching. That he is Glover bec of the axe is reaching. Ofc the common folk would have more axes than swords, bec they are cheaper.

I love the idea that HS is Reed, love how you presented your originally thread, but i dont buy it, its falling apart because its very unlikely.

You dont have to quote me, or answer me, i wont counter you objections.

[butterbumps!]

So, I read the last OP and a lot of the ensuing fight, and I was (I guess, still am) kind of struggling with how you're putting this "theory" together.

It seems like you've settled on the idea of HR=HS, took that as a premise, then built this pseudo-GNC theory based on that speculative premise. Which, ok, I can roll with; the formulation of theories in the conditional "if this, then that" is a good way of iterating through possibilities in this story that has so many openings.

But then it looks like the theory is a victim of confirmation bias-- dismissing all these issues that go against the full permutation of the theory, while going out of your way to find support for it. It's not very methodical or reasonably objective in terms of bolstering this theory.

To be sure, Martin, like any designer, employs motifs and certain descriptive language that connects the story in his style. Any designed artifact has these stylistic continuities. I think this theory might suffer a bit from a need to view these stylistic and perhaps even symbolic similarities as something more and literal. I think a lot of theories tend toward making that jump to something literal when in reality, something is probably intended to be foiled in a more literary sense (Lannisters as Targs and Mance = Rhaegar are the two most prominent off the top of my head).

I am with you in that the Faith is infiltrated in some capacity by a political agent. But I'd probably go with Varys on that guess before nearly anyone else-- the one guy who's at least pretended to be a Sparrow as part of his spying job (well, we do know Doran is sending Tyene, so there's infiltration there too). The Faith can be politically compromised without someone else being literally the HS.

I'm also not quite seeing exactly what you think the outcome of all of this would be. Is Howland Reed going to organize the Faith for King Jon Targ? Does that outcome truly make sense in terms of the broader story?

[HoboJed]

One thing you missed was my point that Cersei has already set a precedent of dismissing kingsguard members. So, not only could she get Tommen to replace any kingsguard not present, the High Septon would know she had done it before, so would be foolish to base a scheme on her not doing it.

[pobeb]

I'll try to address each argument:

1) It is confirmed that Howland is in his 30's (no less than 35), yet the High Septon is described as an old man, with a lined face, and thin grey hair.

The age argument is logical, if the High Septon has thing grey hair, it stands to reason that he isn't in his 30s - which Howland Reed has been confirmed as.

My counter to this is:

Theon's appearance changes from young, to old, in an extremely short period of time. So, objectively, we have precedent here that establishes the possibility for people to look significantly older than they are.

The obvious counter is: Well, Theon was tortured, and the stress caused the change. This counter assumes that Howland couldn't have been stressed in a similar way - which, because of what little we know about Howland, is a false premise to stand on.

2) Axes aren't specific to the North, many other people from different regions use axes - specifically the Hill Tribes in the Vale.

In this instance, I don't have a counter. Axes definitely are used throughout various regions in the story. The deduction that the Glovers favor axes is my assumption given by where they live and what they live in.

3) The septas aren't similar to the She-Bears, as the traits described in each group could be a coincidence.

I find it hard to equate the similarities as coincidental. I haven't found any other group of women described so similarly, but if you guys can find similar descriptions in the text with other women - please do so and present them here. It would work well for this argument

4) Howland, Maege, and Galbart should be defending the North, not playing the game of thrones in the South.

I don't believe they're needed in the North. Judging from Theon's WoW chapter, it is my belief that the Northmen have been plotting against the Boltons since before the wedding - and will subsequently turn on them in the aftermath of the "Battle of Ice".

5) Howland is a devout follower of the Old Gods, and therefore would not have such a vast knowledge of the Faith of Seven.

The Faith of the Seven is a widely established and recognized religion in Westeros. I don't think it's far-fetched to think Howland could have knowledge of it - but the lack of information on Howland leaves this up in the air.

6) Howland, Maege, and Galbart would not betray the Old Gods by pretending to be members of the Faith.

The idea is that they are in disguise. They aren't necessarily adopting the Faith of the Seven, but playing their role in the farce.

7) The High Septon had Margery forcefully examined, and is therefore a misogynist - this goes against what we know of Howland's character

I'm not sure forcing this makes him a misogynist, but it is definitely a radically aggressive practice. Does it go against Howland's honor to approve these actions? I would think no, but there's definitely room to argue that it would.

8) Cersei must have 7 Kingsguard to defend her, or she is guilty by default.

Hard to counter this. Of what we do know, in a Trial of Seven, if the accused cannot gather 7 champions to their cause, they lose by default. Would this be the case with Cersei? Hard to say, really. As we've seen, the rules which dictate any form of trial by combat are subject to change. And the High Septon has been doing things radically since he arrived, so maybe it's not outside the realm of possibiltiy that he would stack unfair odds against Cersei - regardless of precedent.

I do, however, acknowledge that Cersei could very well dismiss and re-assign however it serves her best interests.

9) Sandor will not join the Trial of Seven because he has given up his life of violence.

Has he? I'm not entirely convinced he has, but given that he's lame and taken up the faith - it would stand to reason he would stay out of violent affairs.

10) The Sand Snakes are not knights, and therefore cannot participate in the Trial of Seven.

There is precedent for non-knights to participate in a given trial by combat: Sandor, Bronn, Oberyn, Aerys' fire.

As such, the Sand Snakes have made it clear of their intentions if/when they ever see someone resembling Gregor Clegane.

11) The OP just is listing a number of coincidences: the similarities in Hermit's Hole and the room the High Septon prays in, the similarities between the she-bears and septas, the turtle and Howland, the notable "shivir" both Cersei and Varamyr feel when being stared at by carved faces with powerful eyes, the high septon's weirwood staff as a metaphor, and the position of Theodan Wells as captain of the Faith Militant.

This is possible. It could be I'm just finding unrelated coincidences in the text. As such, I can understand why people would see my connecting evidence as, instead, matching said unrelated coincidences.

[Wavey Sauce]

Keep up your good work.

Right or wrong it is written out properly and always a good read.

Dont bother with the people who try and shut everything down based on a small technical error or just cause they dont agree. If they agree or not they cant argue it is well done and has backup which 9/10 theory posts cant say they have.

[pobeb]

I'm also not quite seeing exactly what you think the outcome of all of this would be. Is Howland Reed going to organize the Faith for King Jon Targ? Does that outcome truly make sense in terms of the broader story?

My prediciton of the outcome:

The champions of the Faith (Howland, Maege, Galbart, Tyene, Nym, and Jaime) all die in the ensuing trial, along with (Robert Strong, Meryn, and Boros)

Sandor (the valonquar) survives by using fire (his biggest fear) against the undead Gregor (his biggest enemy), Cersei feeds The Strangler (made with ashe - joy will turn to ashes in your mouth) to herself and her son in her mad desperation (established in her suicidal notions during Stannis siege - willing to kill pure innocence, Sansa), and Maggy's prophecy comes full circle.

So, both Crown and Faith are effectively crushed - with further help from Varys from the shadows.

And in the wake of the trial, Varys helps Aegon and Griff into the city - and sets up for the Dance 2.0

I think Howland being the High Septon is a fun concept because of how doomed it would be if he was. Let's say the GNC is in full effect, both North and South. They're working full force to establish Jon's rule, but the irony of all this plotting and hard work, is that Jon's body is dead or otherwise incapacitated, and he's living inside Ghost.

[pobeb]

Keep up your good work.

Right or wrong it is written out properly and always a good read.

Dont bother with the people who try and shut everything down based on a small technical error or just cause they dont agree. If they agree or not they cant argue it is well done and has backup which 9/10 theory posts cant say they have.

Thank you, I'll try :)

[butterbumps!]

My prediciton of the outcome:

The champions of the Faith (Howland, Maege, Galbart, Tyene, Nym, and Jaime) all die in the ensuing trial, along with (Robert Strong, Meryn, and Boros)

Sandor (the valonquar) survives by using fire (his biggest fear) against the undead Gregor (his biggest enemy), Cersei feeds The Strangler to herself and her son in her mad desperation, and Maggy's prophecy comes full circle.

So, both Crown and Faith are effectively crushed - with further help from Varys from the shadows.

And in the wake of the trial, Varys helps Aegon and Griff into the city - and sets up for the Dance 2.0

I think Howland being the High Septon is a fun concept because of how doomed it would be if he was. Let's say the GNC is in full effect, both North and South. They're working full force to establish Jon's rule, but the irony of all this plotting and hard work, is that Jon's body is dead or otherwise incapacitated, and he's living inside Ghost.

Ok, so this is about the Faith and the Crown imploding, and not really about Northern politics?

So Howland Reed would have gone incognito and done all this out of desire for sheer vengeance on the Lannisters, and not in order to advance a Northern agenda? I guess, the outcome of this is basically that Howland does all this in order to troll these people, the aftermath of which Varys and Aegon are cleared to ascend?

Since you see the obvious benefit of this to Aegon and Varys, wouldn't it make more sense to reconstruct this from the framework of Varys being involved, rather than the Northman with such little interest in politics, he wasn't even intending to attend that Harrenhal tourney 17 years ago, but to visit with the Green Men on the Isle of Faces?

I guess, none of these outcomes you elaborated are in any way dependent on HR = HS to begin with.

But what do you mean about how this and the GNC would be irony in terms of having all these people working behind the scenes to plant Jon's rule? Are we talking about "King in the North Jon Stark" or "King Jon Targ of the IT?" Is the ultimate ramification of this theory that HR did this in order to shore up Jon's rule as a Targ in KL? Or vengeance on the Lannisters? Or KitN, and independence?

[pobeb]

Ok, so this is about the Faith and the Crown imploding, and not really about Northern politics?

So Howland Reed would have gone incognito and done all this out of desire for sheer vengeance on the Lannisters, and not in order to advance a Northern agenda? I guess, the outcome of this is basically that Howland does all this in order to troll these people, the aftermath of which Varys and Aegon are cleared to ascend?

I think you might have misunderstood me.

Howland's plan is to avenge the Starks and also pave the way for King Jon.

However, I think Howland's plan is doomed to fail. I do think Cersei loses the trial - via Sandor's last stand, but without Howland and his chief plotters, the GNC loses traction in the South - thus opening the door for Aegon.

So, yes, his plan is still to accomplish the grand northern agenda - but, similar to Jon's intentions in his last chapter, things aren't going to work out as he thought.

[butterbumps!]

I think you might have misunderstood me.

Yes, I think Howland's plan is doomed to fail. But, I don't think he believes it will. His intention is to avenge the Starks and crown Jon, but my theory is that he will fail in this attempt.

So, yes, his plan is still to accomplish the grand northern agenda - but, similar to Jon's intentions in his last chapter, things aren't going to work out as he thought.

To crown Jon as "King Jon Targ" of the IT, right? What's his motive for that? R+L, and he thinks Jon is rightful, and having a rightful heir is something he feels strongly about? Wouldn't this idea be in direct contradiction to Ned and Lyanna's wishes, and do you think he'd go against that? Do we have any indication he has strong opinions about the Southron game of thrones, in particular, who sits that throne?

Also, why would he target Cersei at this stage in the game? Why not send an army of lizard lions to the Twins and poison them? Surely the Freys are higher on the shitlist, so if this was about vengeance, I think that's probably a good place to start.

[pobeb]

To crown Jon as "King Jon Targ" of the IT, right? What's his motive for that? R+L, and he thinks Jon is rightful, and having a rightful heir is something he feels strongly about? Wouldn't this idea be in direct contradiction to Ned and Lyanna's wishes, and do you think he'd go against that? Do we have any indication he has strong opinions about the Southron game of thrones?

Also, why would he target Cersei at this stage in the game? Why not send an army of lizard lions to the Twins and poison them? Surely the Freys are higher on the shitlist, so if this was about vengeance, I think that's probably a good place to start.

I see your points. Consider this.

The Boltons - being handled by the Northmen

The Freys - being handled by Cat and the BwB

The Lannisters - being handled by Howland and the missing bannermen

The 3 conspiritors in the Red Wedding are being assualted on all fronts by the members of the GNC. Isn't that very plot-serving? That the North gets their revenge on all the assholes who put the Red Wedding together?

You could make the argument that Cat involved with the GNC, but it is my belief that Cat is also intending to crown Jon - by giving him the kiss.

Let me know if you need references to me rationalizing Cat kissing Jon.

As far as Howland respecting Lyanna and Ned's wishes - I think that's a valid point. Why would be out Jon? Well, I don't think his plan right now necessarily puts Jon in direct danger. Yes, he's there to usurp the Lannisters and establish a platform for Jon, but once Jon is annointed King, all the worry and promises to keep Jon safe are effectively put to rest.

I mean, as we've seen, there really isn't anywhere that's completely safe in Westeros. Maybe Howland knows this, and wants to put an entire realm behind Jon to protect him. Crowning him simply as King in the North doesn't allow this level of power or protection, but King of Westeros? Well, still not safe, but better than Jon's current position - I'd think.

[Frey family reunion]

To crown Jon as "King Jon Targ" of the IT, right? What's his motive for that? R+L, and he thinks Jon is rightful, and having a rightful heir is something he feels strongly about? Wouldn't this idea be in direct contradiction to Ned and Lyanna's wishes, and do you think he'd go against that? Do we have any indication he has strong opinions about the Southron game of thrones, in particular, who sits that throne?

Also, why would he target Cersei at this stage in the game? Why not send an army of lizard lions to the Twins and poison them? Surely the Freys are higher on the shitlist, so if this was about vengeance, I think that's probably a good place to start.

I would agree that the OP's weakest point IMO is crowning Jon the king of Westeros. I think a much more interesting scenario is that Howland and company may simply be looking to destroy the idea of a centralized Westeros kingdom. The 300 years that the Targaryen kingdom existed is such a drop in the bucket for the Andal kingdoms in the south and even less for the First Men kingdoms that had existed for thousands of years. The Targaryens conquered and basically dethroned all of the kings including the King of the North, where House Reed held fealty. I wonder if perhaps Howland might be satisfied in bringing down the Lannister Tyranny of Westeros, and returning things to the way they were before the Targaryen invasion.

I'm not so sure with your point of the Freys being higher on Howland's shitlist, however. The Lannisters were directly responsible for the execution of his friend, Ned, and it may not be a very well kept secret that they were also the masterminds behind the Red Wedding. Why take out the hand, when you can kill the head?

[butterbumps!]

I see your points. Consider this.

The Boltons - being handled by the Northmen

The Freys - being handled by Cat and the BwB

The Lannisters - being handled by Howland and the missing bannermen

The 3 conspiritors in the Red Wedding are being assualted on all fronts from various Northmen or Northern supporters.

You could make the argument that Cat isn't a northmen, but it is my belief that Cat is also intending to crown Jon - by giving him the kiss.

Let me know if you need references to me rationalizing Cat kissing Jon.

As far as Howland respecting Lyanna and Ned's wishes - I think that's a valid point. Why would be out Jon? Well, I don't think his plan right now necessarily puts Jon in direct danger. Yes, he's there to usurp the Lannisters and establish a platform for Jon, but once Jon is annointed King, all the worry and promises to keep Jon safe are effectively put to rest.

I mean, as we've seen, there really isn't anywhere that's completely safe in Westeros. Maybe Howland knows this, and wants to put an entire realm behind Jon to protect him.

Is this all completely genuine? In particular, how is anointing Jon as king going to somehow serve to protect his life? Because Ned couldn't possibly have gotten the HS to anoint Jon 17 years ago in order to save his life if this actually made the danger go away? Declaring someone king is pretty much the best way to put a target for assassination on their back. He'd be yet another pretender. Declaring Jon king is about the worst way to ensure his safety.

The Lannisters are already well crippled before that HS is declared. They fall apart after Tywin was shot in the groin. Cersei is pretty much doing the job you liken to the way the Northmen and the BwB are operating on those other targets. No one needs an elaborate plan to destroy them once Tywin was killed, and they need no plan at all once Kevan refuses the Hand position. A well placed poison dart on Kevan's way to Darry would have done the job admirably.

I'm not so sure with your point of the Freys being higher on Howland's shitlist, however. The Lannisters were directly responsible for the execution of his friend, Ned, and it may not be a very well kept secret that they were also the masterminds behind the Red Wedding. Why take out the hand, when you can kill the head?

Because they already started self-destructing once Tywin was killed. You don't formulate an elaborate incognito scheme with like half the North pretending to be Sparrows when your target is already imploding. To clarify, I'm referring to the vengeance side here. Having men in place to support your candidate is a different story, but again, why does HR care about anyone sitting the throne, especially in light of his closeness to Ned and Lyanna who seem to oppose this concept wrt Jon?

[The_Crannogman]

8) Cersei must have 7 Kingsguard to defend her, or she is guilty by default.

Hard to counter this. Of what we do know, in a Trial of Seven, if the accused cannot gather 7 champions to their cause, they lose by default. Would this be the case with Cersei? Hard to say, really. As we've seen, the rules which dictate any form of trial by combat are subject to change. And the High Septon has been doing things radically since he arrived, so maybe it's not outside the realm of possibiltiy that he would stack unfair odds against Cersei - regardless of precedent.

I do, however, acknowledge that Cersei could very well dismiss and re-assign however it serves her best interests.

This is the part of the theory that most interest me and IMHO has the most going for it. As it does seem that this will end in a trial of Seven as the High Sparrow does everything in Sevens.

Cersei seems to have backed herself into a corner here, I don't have the quote on me but I seem to recall from the first thread it was something like 'Crown and faith agree that the crown must be defended by the KG'. This would present Cersei with a dilemma as she doesn't have 7 KG with her. (I forget how many she does actually have.) And if she can't get 7 men to defend her she is obviously guilty. Now she possibly could strip some of the KG and replace them as their is a precedent for this.

The thing here that I'm interested in here is regardless of doing things radically different does the HS have the power or law on his side to do this?

[pobeb]

Is this all completely genuine? In particular, how is anointing Jon as king going to somehow serve to protect his life? Because Ned couldn't possibly have gotten the HS to anoint Jon 17 years ago in order to save his life if this actually made the danger go away? Declaring someone king is pretty much the best way to put a target for assassination on their back. He'd be yet another pretender. Declaring Jon king is about the worst way to ensure his safety.

The Lannisters are already well crippled before that HS is declared. They fall apart after Tywin was shot in the groin. Cersei is pretty much doing the job you liken to the way the Northmen and the BwB are operating on those other targets. No one needs an elaborate plan to destroy them once Tywin was killed, and they need no plan at all once Kevan refuses the Hand position. A well placed poison dart on Kevan's way to Darry would have done the job admirably.

Well, no, they couldn't have annointed Jon because of the fear of "Robert's Wrath" (dead Targ babes). It's the whole premise of Ned's promise to Lyanna, and why the Kingsguard didn't negotiate with Ned and his 6 (as they were flying Robert's banner).

I don't think being the King puts you in any more or less danger than any particular person in Westeros - but the Iron Throne, by rights, belongs to Jon.

Maege and Galbart are the only two loyal Stark Bannermen to witness Robb's will. As Stark loyalists, it stands to reason that Maege and Galbart would honor Robb's wishes.

So they reach the Neck, give Howland the run-down, and Howland decides to finally reveal the truth to the realm. If we can agree that the North has the intention to crown Jon as King in the North, what would be the harm in crowning him as King of both North, South, East, and West? Wouldn't it put him in a better position, and finally put a person on the throne that will at least give the North a voice?

I see the convo going like this:

Galbart: Robb's dead, and he named Jon as King of the North

Howland: I see, well... Jon is actually King of Westeros (explains R+L=J)

Maege: Oh snaps

Howland: Snaps indeed... now put on this septa robe and dance for me, baby.

Galbart: Hey! Didn't you send your kids on a suicide mission to the North?

Howland: Yes... and your point is?

Galbart: Well... do you think it wise to just sit around watching this crone dance, when your own blood is risking their lives to save the world?

Howland: Hmm... you got a point. Ok, let's go south and fuck shit up. But first *takes out a silver* dance, baby.

[butterbumps!]

Well, no, they couldn't have annointed Jon because of the fear of Robert's wrath. It's the whole premise of Ned's promise to Lyanna, and why the Kingsguard didn't negotiate with Ned and his 6 (as they were flying Robert's banner).

I don't think being the King puts you in any more or less danger than any particular person in Westeros - but the Iron Throne, by rights, belongs to Jon.

Maege and Galbart are the only two loyal Stark Bannermen to witness Robb's will. As Stark loyalists, it stands to reason that Maege and Galbart would honor Robb's wishes.

So they reach the Neck, give Howland the run-down, and Howland decides to finally reveal the truth to the realm. If we can agree that the North has the intention to crown Jon as King in the North, what would be the harm in crowning him as King of both North, South, East, and West? Wouldn't it put him in a better position, and finally put a person on the throne that will at least give the North a voice?

No, the "throne by rights" does not belong to Jon. There is no such thing as a "true heir" to the throne.

How is Jon's safety going to be improved now that there are 5 current claimants to the IT (Aegon, Stannis, Dany, Euron, Tommen), versus one of Robert's wrath?

It doesn't work like LotR. We're dealing with a different set of rules in this story. There is no such thing as "revealing the true heir" and having everyone bow down to that truth. That "truth" is a fiction to begin with. "Rightfulness" is in men's beliefs, and no production of Jon's alleged birth certificates hiding out in those crypts are going to make people believe or care that Jon's Rhaegar's legit son.

It's winter. Winter has even come to KL. Westeros is faced with a huge crisis. If this theory is about giving Jon a bigger voice, then he's already in the right position to gain that following. Being an LC of the one organization that has been tasked with leading the realm against the Others is precisely the position in which to gain a following at this point in time. Trying to lead by claiming the throne makes you look like another petty asshole concerned with self-advancement. So no, I'd strongly disagree that making a move for the IT is in Jon's interest in terms of gaining a following and/ or dealing with this major problem that is common to everyone.

I think FFR's suggestion is the one plausible motive to work with in this theory-- the idea that HR would have infiltrated the Sparrows like this in order to destroy the damn throne-- break up the central authority and revert back. That's something to work with. The idea that HR would go against Ned and Lyanna and declare for Jon requires so many leaps (would he actually go against them? What the hell does he care who's on that throne?), and the vengeance thing really does not add up, as it's beating a dead horse.

[pobeb]

I think FFR's suggestion is the one plausible motive to work with in this theory-- the idea that HR would have infiltrated the Sparrows like this in order to destroy the damn throne-- break up the central authority and revert back. That's something to work with. The idea that HR would go against Ned and Lyanna and declare for Jon requires so many leaps (would he actually go against them? What the hell does he care who's on that throne?), and the vengeance thing really does not add up, as it's beating a dead horse.

Ok, so under the premise that Howland's intentions are simply to destroy Cersei and the IT, does the "attack on all fronts" theory make sense?

Conspiritors in the Red Wedding being taken down by different Northern avengers:

Boltons vs North

Freys vs Catelyn/BwB

Lannisters vs Howland and Co.

If Howland is the High Septon, then it would certainly make sense to look at it from this angle - as "The North Remembers" and doom is certainly impending.

[butterbumps!]

Ok, so under the premise that Howland's intentions are simply to destroy Cersei and the IT, does the "attack on all fronts" theory make sense?

Conspiritors in the Red Wedding being taken down by different Northern avengers:

Boltons vs North

Freys vs Catelyn/BwB

Lannisters vs Howland and Co.

So you're saying that they are actually all coordinating this too?

Howland would not be doing this out of a motive to destroy Cersei. If he has any sense at the game at all (which your theory requires him to have), then he would not waste effort at destroying Cersei specifically. The Lannisters have been a sinking ship since the crossbow incident.

Look, having someone infiltrate the Faith in order to exploit their strength in numbers and the HS's position of authority to accomplish some political goal is a good idea. I think we might see something like that before the end (beyond Doran). It's a strategically smart move.

But I'm not sure that having HR of all people be this person-- and apparently coordinating with the Northmen and the BwB too-- makes that much sense. Of all the motives, I was commenting that what FFR tossed out had logic to it (I don't believe that crowning King Jon Targ or Lannister vengeance makes any sense). I don't buy the theory, but I think if you continue to propose it, that's the endgame you might want to argue for.

ETA: out of interest, does HR have any idea of what's coming from beyond the Wall in this theory? It would seem like he knows something's coming, being as how he sent Meera and Jojen to Bran. So why is he screwing around with either putting someone on the throne, or trying to create anarchy with this massive crisis about to strike?