Forever May Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This occurred to me whilst rereading the books for about the fifth time (I can’t remember how many times now) and I don’t know if it has been brought up before. It probably has (can someone tell me if this is common knowledge). If not, here it is… Note #1: To me, it seemed odd that Varys told Robert and small council that Dany was pregnant. At first, I thought Varys delivered the information because Robert would eventually find out anyway and thus it was better Varys delivered the information lest his loyalty or competence be called into question. After all, Varys can always warn Jorah (as he did) and Dany will be safe, right? Not really, it is still a drastic risk. A competent assassin might take the job and rip Dany’s throat right open. It is a terrible risk. And because of this risk, Varys would clearly have delivered the information in a way that didn’t involve assassins being sent after Dany. Varys is smart enough to manipulate the way the information is delivered so as to make it seem less threatening and then manipulate the small council into not sending assassins. I.e. he could admit the information might be faulty, or he could rightly point out that Dany is finding khalasar life hard and is likely to either miscarry or perhaps even be spurned by Khal Drogo for her weakness. Things like that. What I mean is, it would have been possible for Varys to deliver the information in a way that he proves his loyalty and usefulness to Robert and does not endanger the life of the Targaryens he supposedly serves. But instead, Varys delivers the information and agrees and even encourages sending an assassin after Dany. Why? Well, this appears in the books right after Arya hears the conversation between Varys and Illyrio, where Illyrio tells Varys to delay as a war is no good to them now. I suddenly realized he is risking Dany’s life to delay the war and nothing else. Varys knows Eddard is onto the truth of what Cersei is doing and he knows Eddard is too honorable to plot the murder of children. So what Varys does is, he reports the information and arranges the assassination (at great risk to Dany and her unborn child and even Viserys) only to disgust Eddard into resigning the Handship and returning to Winterfell. By doing this, Varys ensures Eddard will not discover Cersei’s secret and hopes to prevent the early war that Illyrio told him to delay. There’s no other rational explanation. There is no way you can deny Varys put Dany and Viserys in a huge amount of mortal danger. Simply warning Jorah there would be attempts and trusting that Drogo’s bloodriders (his equivalent to a Kingsguard) have their heads screwed on, that just doesn’t cut it. Varys risked their lives to achieve his goal, full stop. This brings me to my second note… Note #2: Ask yourself, if your goal is the return of the Targaryen Dynasty, why risk the lives of said Targaryens just to prevent a war that only needs to be prevented if said Targaryens are alive to part take in that war to begin with? The simple answer is, you don’t. The risk Varys put Dany and Viserys in, I believe, proves that Varys views those two as expendable. Viserys is at worst third in line for the Iron Throne (after Aegon and then Jon, assuming Aegon is Aegon and Jon was born in wedlock). But Aegon and Jon are unknown, many consider Viserys to be the Targaryen heir and this makes him very important as a legitimizing factor even if he is never meant to sit the throne. I Targaryen loyalist simply does not gamble with Viserys’s life! I think this is the earliest example of what Varys is really up to. Two things seem apparent. 1, the war Varys needs to delay is for the sake of Aegon, not Viserys. This is because 2, Targaryens are expendable in Varys’s eyes, but Blackfyres aren’t. This whole scenario makes a lot more sense if you consider Aegon might be an imposter, but still a Blackfyre. It explains who Varys is serving, where his loyalties lay (certainly not with Targaryens, that is clear), and what he is doing. I recall in his chapters, Ser Barristan reflects that the rot in Aerys’s reign began with Varys. If that is true and Varys was trying to destabilize the Targaryen Dynasty from day one, it makes a lot of sense that all this time Varys has been serving the Blackfyres and trying to get one on the Iron Throne. This is the only way any of this makes sense to me now, as I cannot fathom how Varys would endanger the lives of the already endangered House Targaryen family just to delay a war! Nor is he so stupid as to have made such blunders that destabilized Aerys’s reign if he was so loyal to Aerys to begin with! He wouldn’t do either of those.So Varys serves the Blackfyres. Yours truly,Thow fayrest may that euer went… (By the way, please tell me if this is common knowledge or what parts. Is any of it original? I will reread the books looking for actual plausible theories (unlike some I’ve seen) and new ideas, so let me know if I am failing to do this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Mans Plan Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 At first, I thought Varys delivered the information because Robert would eventually find out anyway and thus it was better Varys delivered the information lest his loyalty or competence be called into question. After all, Varys can always warn Jorah (as he did) and Dany will be safe, right? Not really, it is still a drastic risk. A competent assassin might take the job and rip Dany’s throat right open. It is a terrible risk. It is perhaps a risk, but as you say Robert would of found out eventually anyway. I don't think it is reasonable to assume Varys could deliver the message in such a way that Robert would not want to assassinate her, after all, his hatred of the Targaryens is well known and he would be sending an assassin even if he thought the threat was minimal. Varys is smart, but he has limits. Varys delivers the information and agrees and even encourages sending an assassin after Dany. Why? The decision was already made. I have little doubt Robert would of tried to kill Dany even if every council member disagreed, so may as well not arouse suspicion (after all Varys did serve under Aerys for many years) Not that I necesarily disagree with dany=distraction for Aegon, just think Varys had very limited options. please tell me if this is common knowledge You mean Varys supporting the Blackfyres? I believe it's a pretty popular theory. A competent assassin might take the job and rip Dany’s throat right open. It is a terrible risk. And how would this person then get back to Westeros alive to attain his lordship? It is not enough to kill Dany, you need to kill her and escape. This is a far more difficult task for a non faceless-man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knight Of Winter Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 But instead, Varys delivers the information and agrees and even encourages sending an assassin after Dany. Why? Well, this appears in the books right after Arya hears the conversation between Varys and Illyrio, where Illyrio tells Varys to delay as a war is no good to them now. I suddenly realized he is risking Dany’s life to delay the war and nothing else. Varys knows Eddard is onto the truth of what Cersei is doing and he knows Eddard is too honorable to plot the murder of children. So what Varys does is, he reports the information and arranges the assassination (at great risk to Dany and her unborn child and even Viserys) only to disgust Eddard into resigning the Handship and returning to Winterfell. By doing this, Varys ensures Eddard will not discover Cersei’s secret and hopes to prevent the early war that Illyrio told him to delay. There’s no other rational explanation. There is no way you can deny Varys put Dany and Viserys in a huge amount of mortal danger. Simply warning Jorah there would be attempts and trusting that Drogo’s bloodriders (his equivalent to a Kingsguard) have their heads screwed on, that just doesn’t cut it. Varys risked their lives to achieve his goal, full stop. This brings me to my second note… That's the first time I've read this explanation. It makes a lot of sense, consider me converted. As for other stuff, it's pretty much already established that Varys considers Dany and Vis expendable. He sends them off with Dothraki where Viserys got killed and Dany could have easily gotten offed/enslaved as well. His and Illyrio's aim was to bring Dothraki into Westeros, and for that they're fine with Dany either alive (so she persuades Drogo) or dead (so her death enrages Drogo). I don't agree with your conclusion, however. All that is clear at this point is that Varys is pro-Aegon (whoever Aegon is), not that he's pro-Blackfyre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forever May Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I don't agree with your conclusion, however. All that is clear at this point is that Varys is pro-Aegon (whoever Aegon is), not that he's pro-Blackfyre. That is true. But it implies Aegon is not a Targaryen. If Aegon was a Targaryen and Varys was pro-Aegon, Varys still would not do anything that could weaken Aegon's house. Dany and Viserys are Aegon's supposed aunt and uncle. So whilst it doesn't prove Aegon is a Blackfyre, it does suggest he isn't a Targaryen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forever May Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 It is perhaps a risk, but as you say Robert would of found out eventually anyway. I don't think it is reasonable to assume Varys could deliver the message in such a way that Robert would not want to assassinate her, after all, his hatred of the Targaryens is well known and he would be sending an assassin even if he thought the threat was minimal. Varys is smart, but he has limits. I think Varys has delivered other information about Dany in a sensitive way. I am quite sure in the drama, but also the books I believe, that Varys reports on a, "Three headed dragon in Qarth," instead of saying, "Dany has three dragons, by the way." In this instance, Varys did his job so as not to arise suspicion, but also downplayed the threat by leaving it open to dismissal. Just an example. It's just the way the OP theory was written in Game of Throne, it seems to be screaming in your face that preventing the war is more important to Varys than the lives of Dany and Viserys. Only after Dany hatches dragons, Varys and Illyrio seem to really start caring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Eater Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I agree, I have thought this way for a while. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Varys is moving to put him on the IT, then Varys is clearly Team Blackfyre. Overthrowing the Targaryens was always the goal of the Blackfyres, and Varys is likely smart enough to know that the realm wouldn't rise for a Blackfyre, but a Targaryen is a different story entirely. It is perhaps a risk, but as you say Robert would of found out eventually anyway. I don't think it is reasonable to assume Varys could deliver the message in such a way that Robert would not want to assassinate her, after all, his hatred of the Targaryens is well known and he would be sending an assassin even if he thought the threat was minimal. Varys is smart, but he has limits.Except Varys was Robert's only source of information regarding Dany. Robert never took the time to make his own information network. There also aren't any ships in VD. Information carried by land without ravens is tediously slow. The decision was already made. I have little doubt Robert would of tried to kill Dany even if every council member disagreed, so may as well not arouse suspicion (after all Varys did serve under Aerys for many years)Yet Varys has known Robert for fourteen years, and likely knew how to manipulate him. If he didn't want Robert to deliver the order, he could have simply kept the info hidden. Varys could have advised against on account of Dany being a young girl, and that her khal had no interest in Westeros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eiko Dragonhorn Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 IMO Varys and LF are foils for each other. Varys works with the truth, everything he says is technically correct, just masterfully phrased to be misleading. LF works with lies. Similarly, GRRM always tells the truth, but uses ambiguous or misleading language when he wants to. Just as I'm pretty sure Ran straight up lies about his opinions since receiving insider info (I believe he's even stated that he does do this, in the guise of maintaining old held theories that he has actually gained knowledge that proves them wrong, for the sake of not spoiling things). Personally I think he goes a step further than that regarding theories that have come about after his insider info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Too Fat Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Howdy.Assuming that the Varys/Illyio conspiracy is in fact a bugeoning blackfire rebellion, i think its safe to say their bargain with drogo was a method of ridding themselves of pesky trueborn heirs. Despite their cunning, and rapidity of communication, these dudes aint omnipotent and they have a dang old ambitious plan. I doubt if they would'nt have some long term goals..dig it? I mean just judging by their discussion in the red keep, they have big ol deadlines what with the war and destablizing westeros etc. Do ya'll think they really have a plot with so many variables i.e daeny or viserys? I mean Daeny's marriage to Drogo is almost certain to end with his untimely death; which would land poor daeny in the dosh khaleen, a deeper, more distant excile. This leaves her out of the picture but still alive so he can use her as a means to enflame tension in the small counsil. And theres that Viserys dude. Remember in GoT when jorah told daeny that Illiyro councelled Viserys to hang out in pentos while the whole Vaes Dothrak buisiness happened? Its always been my impression that this interaction between Illyrio and Viserys was similar to when Cercei forbade Robbert to fight in the melee in order to goad him into facing his death. He was too proud to take intruction from the magester, so he went with the Dothraki. Perhaps Illyrio knew his temperment would get him killed amongst the horde. also first post. gotta start somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Mans Plan Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Except Varys was Robert's only source of information regarding Dany. Robert never took the time to make his own information network. There also aren't any ships in VD. Information carried by land without ravens is tediously slow. Robert already knew that Jorah was Vary's spy, and that he was very close to Dany. So when the news eventually (even if a year later) reached Robert he would of inquired how Varys did not know. Varys could of simply blamed Jorah for not supplying the information, but regardless you still end up with Robert knowing the truth. So I fail to see much point in delaying (even if by a year), it would only make Varys seem less competent and as the OP said delivering it now at least served as a distraction to maybe prevent Ned uncovering the truth. Yet Varys has known Robert for fourteen years, and likely knew how to manipulate him. If he didn't want Robert to deliver the order, he could have simply kept the info hidden. Varys could have advised against on account of Dany being a young girl, and that her khal had no interest in Westeros. I agree Varys is a good judge of character and is able to manipulate people to some extent, even if people don't trust him. But this was an issue Robert felt very strongly about.. so strongly that even Ned could not talk him out of it, let alone someone who Robert isn't a fan of. I think Varys has delivered other information about Dany in a sensitive way. I am quite sure in the drama, but also the books I believe, that Varys reports on a, "Three headed dragon in Qarth," instead of saying, "Dany has three dragons, by the way." In this instance, Varys did his job so as not to arise suspicion, but also downplayed the threat by leaving it open to dismissal. Just an example. Yes, I believe he also slipped some info about Dany's dragons in with information about krakens and the Others in order to make it seem like nonsense. I just think Varys could not manipulate Robert in this example. Once again though, I do think your explanation very likely. Varys works with the truth, everything he says is technically correct, just masterfully phrased to be misleading. I've seen a few people posit this, I think I actually kept it in mind on my second read to check if it was the truth and seem to recall Varys telling blatant lies. Maybe I'll try find some later. I think it is more the fact that it is dangerous to constantly lie, if someone finds out, whether because they have their own info or Varys has trouble keeping track of his lies then Varys head will be removed. If it is true, then Varys truly does serve the realm... whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryagonnakill#2 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 To me, if we look at Varys actions before Roberts Rebellion we can see that he was clearly anti Targ. Varys actively propped Aerys up at a time when supporting Rhaegar could have saved the Targ dynasty. Even if we look at Varys recommendation to not open the gates of KL, what would that have accomplished? It certainly wouldn't have saved the city, but it would have given Aerys more time to burn the city down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In A Coat of Gold Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 To me, if we look at Varys actions before Roberts Rebellion we can see that he was clearly anti Targ. Varys actively propped Aerys up at a time when supporting Rhaegar could have saved the Targ dynasty. Even if we look at Varys recommendation to not open the gates of KL, what would that have accomplished? It certainly wouldn't have saved the city, but it would have given Aerys more time to burn the city down. He only wanted to burn it down once Tywin began to sack it. Keeping Tywin out would have delayed him long enough for cooler heads(Ned) to prevail and Elia and Rhaenys would have been spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In A Coat of Gold Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Varys was only pro-Targ to a point. He supported Aerys listened. Aegon is a Targ who he could have fully molded from an infant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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