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Fire Eater

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About Fire Eater

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    Ghost Haunting Valyria
  • Birthday 09/30/1989

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  1. Fire Eater

    Euron Greyjoy and his Obsession with Mutes????

    Euron wants a crew of mutes since mutes can't give away your secrets.
  2. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Except Robb wasn't purposefully setting Roose up for a disastrous defeat. Roose knew he was going to face Tywin, and how big an army Tywin had. Glover didn't know Tarly was headed for him, and that Gregor had taken Harrenhal. Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Glover had to do with what he had, and he managing to inflict heavy casualties and retreat despite being pinned against the sea means he did an excellent job given the situation. No, it doesn't. I said Robb picked the most dangerous job in picking to fight Jaime Lannister not that he always picks the most dangerous job. You are going against the text. Going by sheer numbers, Robb was given the more dangerous job since he was outnumbered 2 to 1. Robert, by virtue of being king, was the one giving orders at the Trident not Ned. Ned had no command over Robert. No, you are putting words in my mouth and overreaching. I said he picked the more dangerous job, and gave Roose the less dangerous one. If they have sentries and scouts they could potentially sight the Northern army on its way. They could mobilize their forces for an attack. That's also taking into account that Robb would also have to split his forces into three with each force being smaller in numbers than the enemy they face. A mounted rider can easily take on a foot soldier in one-on-one. However, en masse foot soldiers forming a shieldwall can withstand a cavalry charge as was the case in the Battle of Hastings with Harold's infantry holding off the Norman cavalry. History disproves your point. He knew Ironborn would want to go back to the Iron Islands after Balon died to deal with succession. A token force would be left behind to hold Moat Cailin with no more than few hundred men. The towers at the moat could also hold only a limited number. That is the fallacy of presentism. Robb made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish suggested setting a trap for Jaime by baiting him for a chase. They still outnumbered Robb's known forces by a factor of two. The infantry in the middle was able to hold off a cavalry charge led by Robb until a sortie took them from behind. Robb had no idea how many men were left in Riverrun after Jaime's assault. Again, he made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish arrived. It was still the more dangerous option. No, it is clearly stated at the point Robb made the decision, he clearly had the more dangerous job. His capital wasn't undefended, or where did Ser Rodrik Cassel get the men to crush the Ironborn at Torrhen's Square? Robb didn't expect Roose to betray him. Even the best of statesmen can't guess what everyone's thinking. You fail to take into account that battle isn't one-on-one, but multiple fighters fighting in units. Historians agree that disciplined infantry en masse can withstand most cavalry charges. The strength of cavalry relies on momentum once they hit a shield wall, and if they don't break the shieldwall, they can be surrounded by infantry and run through with a pike, pulled off their horse or have their horse killed from under them. https://books.google.fi/books?id=nQDBUgwGae4C&pg=PA39&dq=cavalry+effective+misconceptions&hl=en&sa=X&ei=nePJUZfSLeTQiwK8wYDABg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=cavalry effective misconceptions&f=true Again, no, Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Tarly wasn't at Duskendale until long after Glover had already arrived. Roose was sent to face Tywin. It seems as if it doesn't matter that he was set up. He wasn't forewarned about Tarly, and he didn't hear about the Battle of the Blackwater. Roose clearly knew about the latter, and could have sent a message to Glover. He also likely knew the Lannisters would send an army against Glover. The last he likely heard Stannis was marching towards King's Landing, and the city and Lannisters appeared doomed. Due to being set up, and purposeful lack of intel from Roose. Roose, like any commander, would have been expected to send a message to their subordinate telling them that Harrenhal is occupied by the enemy, and what I just mentioned before. That doesn't demonstrate superiority on your part, just a lack of maturity. How many people have ever been convinced in an argument by being condescended to or insulted? It also makes it harder for people you're debating to take you seriously. He works as an Assistant Professor at City University of New York with a PhD in Public Policy History. You discount an actual historian? That is what in debate is known as a non sequitur. Doing what other people with popular blogs do counts against him how? His posts are free. Do you have any evidence to back up your claims? Did you extensively go through his tumblrs and wordpress posts? Lord Hornwood was killed, whose lands border Roose's. He was simply hedging his bets, and probably waited until the Battle of the Blackwater to completely throw in with Tywin.
  3. Fire Eater

    What if: Emperor Aegon the Conqueror?

    Seconded. Aegon had his chance when he could have allied with Volatnis in conquering the Free Cities, but instead chose to fight against them. While Westeros has a millenia-long historical tradition of monarchies, Essos is completely different. The Free Cities have no history of monarchies. The Freehold of Valyria was a republic, and the Free Cities didn't have monarchies but magisters, archons and the only monarch, the Prince of Pentos, is just a ceremonial figurehead used as a scapegoat should a crop fail or war be lost.
  4. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    He has people at the ToJ, with the Daynes having been friends of Rhaegar. It is going to be confirmed eventually, or why put it in the story in the first place? They were legitimized after Addam mounted Seasmoke. That is taken to mean that mounting a dragon proves that one has blood of the dragon. Don't tell me mounting a dragon had nothing to do with the decision to legitimize the boys. A dragon proves he has blood of the dragon, and lends evidence to his claim. It wouldn't be taken to prove Jon's heritage alone, but also Howland, Wylla's and possibly, the Daynes' testimony. Where would Jon get a Dragonhorn? A Dragonhorn also kills whoever blows it, and I doubt Jon would ever sacrifice someone with that thing. It also wouldn't help him given everyone would hear it, and know he used it. So using the horn wouldn't prove his Targaryen heritage. As for skinchanging, GRRM said there is no record of a dragon having been warged, so I don't know where Dany would get the idea with no one she knows or any Southron allies, will know he is a skinchanger. Hell, most people in the North don't know, except a few at the Wall. Dany and Jon would have just met in that scenario, and she likely wouldn't have heard about his skinchanging. To tell you the truth, I think Jon would skinchange a dragon before he tries to mount it to potentially avoid a horrible death. His dragonblood would at least get his foot through the door. Well, in ADwD, they go off to hunt, so they control their eating schedules and food portions. That they have to eat daily suggests they have to, and they can't go for long stretches of time without food. Hell, I think judging by Drogon's actions when he arrives back in Meereen which is eat Barsena and the boar, he left his cave because he was running out of food. The hatchling would need to find a supply of charred meat for six more months after the corpses decompose. So are direwolves (they have some form of telepathic bond from what we've seen of the Starks when warging into them), yet there are rules. I know you know that GRRM would never do things like have them speak or grow wheels, he keeps magic at a certain limit. He is using some level of magic realism. There are rules such as some magic requiring blood sacrifice, and the higher the level of magic the greater the number of sacrifices. I'm going for a strict interpretation while you seem to be going for a looser one. I'm using the scientific method. Dany's dragons are the only ones we see grow up in the series, and they're the only evidence we have. Smoke didn't mean he was able to breathe fire yet. All we know is Drogon first breathed fire seven months after hatching. Let's say a dragon can possibly learn earlier at five months, that still leaves four months without food. A hatchling couldn't have survived unassisted for months without food with a metabolism that requires it to eat many times a week. Well, Dany's dragons are the template. They're the closest thing to evidence. Any other is speculation at his point. I don't think there is anything that says more food = faster maturation, but it can result in a bigger, fatter baby dragon. I think in nature, it generally doesn't work that way with the exception of malnourishment, which can stunt growth. As to the bolded, that isn't how burden of proof works. The burden is generally supposed to fall on the person who makes the claim "X causes Y" (Dragons can mature much faster than Dany's) that challenges the status quo not the person who claims "X doesn't cause Y" or the status quo. Otherwise, if it were the other way around, the burden would be on you to disprove my theory that in space there is an entire planet made of spaghetti with a giant meatball for a moon. My claims regarding dragon maturation have evidence in the form of Dany's dragons, which even if you think it isn't much, is still more than the evidence you have for your claims which is to say, none. The heating pools are clearly caused by hot springs, otherwise how would a dragon survive deep underground without food or air? That still means they weren't able to breathe fire. It is an ability that takes a while to develop like young cobras learning to control the injection of venom from their fangs.
  5. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    That's a completely different battle that absolutely doesn't fit as analogy. Neither Tywin nor Jaime were in a fortress, but in the field. Robb's forces also clearly outnumbered the Ironborn while the Lannister forces outnumbered his. Robb picked the Greatjon for this given his job is to distract an enemy, and to put up a fierce fight, which actually suits the Greatjon. I mistook your number thinking the 3k referred to Robb's cavalry instead of Jaime's. Either way Robb was outnumbered more than 2 to 1, and 15,000 men is still 15,000. He would potentially be facing a shieldwall with twice as many infantry as Robb's forces that could withstand a cavalry charge with 3000 enemy cavalry to flank them. However, Robb played it smart. Common sense? Robb lead a cavalry charge against the infantry before the gates of Riverrun, and the Lannister infantry managed to hold off the cavalry until they're taken in the rear by Blackwood. A shieldwall can stop a cavalry charge, especially given the Lannisters as GRRM noted, have the best infantry. That still would result in high casualties if the goal was to absolutely slaughter the Northern army. No, math and military realities as well as the books show otherwise. You're going against Cat's own words. Robb still was not immune to harm in battle even with guards as he was expected to fight. So you're saying Roose was just going to sit around doing nothing? Commanders are expected to do some on the ground thinking. Robb was focused on bringing Tywin west. His failures were political not military. You're argument makes no sense. Glover was sent there following Roose's orders, and Roose purposely sent the Northern army to get destroyed knowing as he had thrown in with Tywin by then. It was a disaster, because Roose intended it. Glover wasn't expecting Tarly to attack him. The odds weren't in his favor in that battle, but against him since he was set up. He was pinned against the sea which is a bad position. Instead of getting pushed into the sea with his army destroyed a la the Fishfeed in the Dance of Dragons, he manages to get his forces out of there and inflict heavy casualties. This was also against Tarly "the finest soldier in the realm" who inflicted the only defeat on Robert in the Battle of Ashford using only his vangauard. That in and of itself is a feat. No numbers are given as to how many men were lost on Tarly's side. It also isn't given how many men Tarly had with him, but I am guessing as large as Glover's or larger. Condescension is uncalled for. Atwell is an actual historian with knowledge of medieval warfare, politics, history and customs. He does re-reads of the chapters doing military and political analyses. That quote was from his analysis of the chapter showing the Battle of the Green Fork. Roose is weakening his rivals, and at the very least thinking of joining the Lannisters. They have more to offer than Robb could. I'm not a Robb fan.
  6. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Not according to Catelyn: In determining, who had the more dangerous job you're ignoring the math. He was leading a force against an army that outnumbered his five to one compared to Roose's force having a similar size to Tywin's. Tywin's army couldn't have "absolutely slaughtered" a force that size without incredibly heavy casualties on his side. Robb's choice clearly was more dangerous. Roose wasn't given nothing to do. He was fighting Lannisters, and generals don't need to constantly need to get orders from the highest command given they are expected to do some thinking and strategizing for themselves. Roose Bolton was the one who sent Glover to Duskendale, don't you remember? Glover didn't decide to do it, Bolton ordered it. You are also completely mischaracterizing Glover. He managed to inflict heavy casualties against an enemy army and retreat despite being pinned against the sea, and this is against whom Kevan described as "the finest soldier in the realm." Please, Roose was planning betrayal from the start. According to Atwell:
  7. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Robb took the more dangerous job like his father would have. He managed to create a huge setback for Tywin by destroying Jaime's army, and lifting the siege at Riverrun, effectively blocking him off from his home base. Robb's only mistake was picking Roose Bolton in charge of the army meeting Tywin instead of someone like Robett Glover.
  8. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Maybe, but fortunately in Jon's case there is no brother, just him. But they weren't legitimized until after Addam mounted a dragon, not before. The fact that maesters dispute his origins means it isn't public knowledge that he was Corlys's son, and that Corlys never publicly acknowledged him as his son. All that is publicly known is that Addam mounted Seasmoke, claiming to be Laenor's son, and was accepted as a Velaryon right after that. That could taken as precedent for proving one's dragon lineage. The problem with your analogy regarding Nettle, Ulf and Hugh was that they didn't claim to be the children of Targaryens or Velaryons. The Targaryen bloodline didn't marry into Northern houses, and their marriages have been documented. The only sources are Houses Velaryon, Plumm (a few Westerlands houses that married into them), a few Dornish houses and Baratheon and a few stormlands houses. It's a very long shot, and I think the consensus is the Starks have no blood of the dragon. The proof that Jon is Rhaegar's would be stronger than being through the female line given no one knows who his mother was. That is why the dragon is important to prove his heritage. Wylla would provide testimony, and Ashara Dayne if she is alive. There's one problem with the first paragraph: Jon doesn't have a dragonhorn. If he used it, she would clearly know given the noise those things make. It also wouldn't prove his claim. I think no hints suggests to them starting out as friends or enemies. However, remember she is going to be fighting Stannis whom Jon has thrown in with along with the North. She also has no love for House Stark who she remembers as the Usurper's dogs. So, the chances are good their relationship may be more likely to start out antagonistic. No, the baby dragon doesn't know it's going to be its last meal for six months. Besides, dragons need to eat regularly, pretty much daily from what we've read in ADwD, and six months without food would kill many endothermic animals with that kind of a metabolism. Yeah, we haven't seen them try. I don't think they can procreate yet, and it will likely be a couple of years at least. Those remarks were speaking about, not the subject at hand, but the speaker. How is that not personal? ' As to the second point, compared to what you've been saying that have no evidence? That dragons can survive six months without food? That meat doesn't rot away after a month? That some dragons have accelerated aging? I'm using observations from the books along with knowledge of biology. Then why did she still need to char meat for him if he could just cook it himself up to that point? Then why was that the first time we saw any of the dragons breathe fire? I think it would have been mentioned if they could start breathing flame. It clearly takes many months before they learn how to fly or breathe fire. I see nothing in the text that provides a counter-example. You claimed they could breathe fire as soon as they hatched. If that was true they would have roasted the pieces of uncharred meat she first offered them. Wild or not, if Drogon is anything to go by, it would take months before this hypothetical hatchling would be able to breathe fire. I'm pointing out that it wasn't stated how old they were when they left for the wild.
  9. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    But that knowledge wasn't public, and even in WOIAF it is stated that Addam's true origins are a matter of dispute. Given that, it was seen in public that Addam proved his heritage by mounting Seasmoke. Alyn came with the package given he was Addam's full brother. They have nothing to go on regarding who Jon's mother would be, especially given the math. Wyllas came from Starfall as a wet nurse for Jon, meaning Jon clearly came from Dorne. Jon was born more than a year after Ned met Ashara, so that rules her out. Ned only stayed in Dorne for a few months, not long enough for it to be by Wylla. Name to me one of Ned's ancestors from the south through the female line. The Starks tend to marry north of the Neck. There is no known dragonblood in any of the Northern houses they married into. Except I think she would believe Jon has no dragonblood, and there is a good chance he would fail. Look at all the potential dragonriders during the Dance of Dragons. Daenerys would be inclined to disbelieve since his story takes the one she lived her life by, and turns it on its head. Yeah, it does. It starts to liquefy after a month. Drogon pretty much matures at the same rate as his siblings. I don't see any records of dragons that are bigger mature faster than smaller dragons. Not all dragons are born or grow into the same size like with all creatures. Size =/= more mature. From what we know with how big dragons get, as well as how old, he clearly hasn't reached maturity. At a few years-old he is still a juvenile. From what we've seen with Dany's dragons, they have high metabolism as is the case with animals that are capable of flight. She mentions in ADwD they need to eat daily. That is also to mention that a dragon can only eat so much at one time, especially a hatchling that doesn't know its food is going to disappear soon. I doubt a hatchling with a high metabolism could survive six months without food. Also, dude, chill out. Keep it professional not personal, otherwise you should excuse yourself from this conversation if you find yourself unable. Few arguments have ever been won through personal attacks/remarks. But as Viserys noted and we already discussed, dragons only eat cooked meat. It would be 5-6 months before the hatchling would be able to breathe fire, and eat cooked meat. How would it get cooked meat? I did point out that Drogon didn't fly or breathe fire until seven months after hatching at the HotU. If they could breathe fire since they hatched, then why didn't the dragons need Dany to char their meat for them when they could have just seared the meat themselves with their dragonflame? We have no record of how old they were when they set out on their own, but I think it would have been when they were old enough to fend for themselves.
  10. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    I think they were dead. It took a fire and blood to hatch them. There is precedent for it with Addam of Hull being accepted into House Velaryon after mounting Seasmoke. The Starks never intermarried with the Targaryens or any family south of the Neck minus the Blackwoods, and thus wouldn't have married into families that intermarried with House Targaryen. Howland Reed and the Daynes would also provide their word that Rhaegar is Jon's father. How many people actually know Jon is a skinchanger? The answer is no one south of the Gift. I think he would mount a dragon posed as a challenge by Dany. If he refuses, he pretty much sends the statement that he isn't a Targaryen, and if he tries he could lose his life, removing him as a pretender. That would appear to be the most convenient way to be rid of him for Dany. That meat would have rotted away quickly before it even had a chance to fly. Larger hatchlings don't get to learn to fly earlier. Drogon grows bigger than his siblings, but he matures at pretty much the same rate. We have no examples of accelerated maturation for dragons.The hatchling would need enough charred meat to supply it for seven months, which is not likely the case. The dragons didn't eat nothing during that time in the Red Waste, Dany breastfed them. You mean if the dragon was there. Seven months after the burning of Winterfell would have been more than enough time for squatters to arrive. I already pointed out that it would take at least seven months to learn flight or breathe fire. It's food supply would have disappeared quickly after a month, and I don't think it could go six months without food.
  11. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Except that egg would be theoretically over a hundred years old. The hatching of dead dragon eggs was the miracle not the mundane. Couldn't he simply just mount one of her dragons? That would serve a narrative purpose as it provides evidence for his Targaryen heritage. The bodies would have rotted away after a while. It takes around a month for a human corpse to liquefy, and that's not including maggots feeding on a corpse. It also took Dany's dragons seven months after hatching until they learned to fly. Those corpses wouldn't have been enough to sustain a baby dragon for seven months. We also learn from Theons chapters in ADwD that there were squatters at WF. They would have spotted the dragon, and word would have spread.
  12. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    He specifically said "The birth of Dany's dragons was unique, magical, wonderous, a miracle." I doubt a second miracle like that could happen in the same timeline. Another dragon would also take away from the impact of Dany's dragons. Melisandre would also try to get it for Stannis. I sincerely doubt that the dragon could grow with no parent to care for it, and I doubt it grow magically accelerated as we have not seen a single speck of evidence of it in the books regarding any dragons. The whole theory falls apart easily.
  13. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Unlikely given GRRM said Dany's case was a miracle, a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
  14. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    There is just one problem with that: newborn dragons can't fly or breathe fire. That wasn't an actual dragon Summer saw. I think it is more likely a hint that Daenerys will eventually come to Winterfell. GRRM would have placed plenty of hints for an actual dragon hatching at Winterfell.
  15. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    I don't think that is going to happen. It is unlike GRRM for a dragon to appear out of nowhere. Also, I don't think a dragon would have gone unnoticed; GRRM would at least have peppered hints in the Northern chapters such as claimed sightings. That dragon would also be untrained. As to the main topic, I think one of the dragons will undergo gender transition as animals that can change sex, do so when placed in single sex environments. You just need to dragons to create a clutch of eggs.
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