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Fire Eater

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  1. Fire Eater

    Brienne and the Wizard of Oz

    I was looking at Brienne’s journey in A Feast for Crows for an essay on Meribald, and I realized that her journey actually references one of the most famous musical films in American history: The Wizard of Oz. Brienne being dressed in blue (armor), and leaving home for a quest is Dorothy. Brienne is accused of killing Renly when she was actually at the wrong place at the wrong time just as Dorothy with her house dropping on the Wicked Witch of the East. She is sent on her mission by Catelyn, the Lady of the North in a parallel to Glinda the Good Witch of the North. She is later accompanied by three male companions and a dog going along the road. Brienne bumps into Cat again later on like Dorothy and Glinda at the end of the film. Brienne also meets Thoros, whom she called by his nickname “the red wizard,” to which he replies: "The pink pretender, rather. I am Thoros, late of Myr, aye . . . a bad priest and a worse wizard." Meribald is the Scarecrow. Dorothy meets him in the country where he wants a brain, yet throughout the film demonstrated himself to be good on his feet. He managed to get apples for Dorothy by taunting the trees into throwing their apples at him. When and the rest of the group are cornered by the Wicked Witch of the West, he notices the candelabra and with quick thinking, cuts it down to give an opening for them to escape. Meribald is from the country, and he himself says he is simple, but actually proves himself to be intelligent with his broken men speech. Podrick Payne is the Cowardly Lion. The character, ironically a creature that symbolizes valor, is an admitted coward who wants courage, and we see in spite of his fears, he infiltrates the Wicked Witch’s castle to save Dorothy. Pod served lions, and he is described by every POV character that meets him as timid, with Sansa noticing he blushes and stares at her feet every time she talks with him. Yet, he rams himself into Mandon Moore just as he is about to kill Tyrion, and then pulls Tyrion to safety from the raging inferno on the Blackwater, saving his life. He later helps Brienne against the undoubtedly dangerous Bloody Mummer deserters. The boy can be shy, but deep inside is brave. Hyle Hunt is undoubtedly the Tin Man. The Tin Man has a metal body, and wants a heart, yet we see him show to be very caring towards his friends to the point of crying for them. Hyle Hunt’s body is covered in the metal of his armor like the Tin Man, and not having a heart appears to describe him pretty well. We’ve never seen him express sympathy or compassion towards anyone. He calls Brienne ugly to her face when he we see him first talk to her. He wants to find Sansa so he can sell her to the Lannisters. When Brother Gillum shows that a horse bit off his ear, Hyle responds by joking about it. When Brienne expresses sympathy for the children at the inn having lost their parents, Hyle’s response is to roll his eyes and mock her for her sympathy. He is a very self-interested man who doesn’t seem very caring towards anyone. However, we are first introduced to him when he defends a smallfolk couple and Brienne from Tarly’s guards, and actually defends Brienne against his boss and liege, Randyll Tarly, which cost him his job. As for Cersei, I’ll let you figure this one out. Cersei likes to wear green, is very vindictive and cruel, often associated with fire and is from the westerlands. Her subordinates are referred to as monkeys with Tyrion, her Hand, being called “a twisted little monkey demon,” Lancel, who gave Robert the wineskin and served as her sword, compared to “a mummer’s monkey” and she thinks of Falyse Stokeworth, whom she tried to have kill Bronn, as a “grasping monkey.” She also had an innocent dog, Lady, killed for something another girl and her dog did. (I’ll get you my pretty, and your little dog ,too.) Cersei is also looking for the owner of that dog, a young girl whom she blames for the death of a relative, and had imprisoned in her castle. Cersei is the Wicked Witch of the West.
  2. Fire Eater

    Brienne and the Wizard of Oz

    Good catch, Oathkeeper incorporates rubies, and belonged to Cersei's sibling, so it would be the ruby slippers. He would be the Wicked Witch of the East. The war would be the closest thing to a tornado IMO.
  3. Fire Eater

    Brienne and the Wizard of Oz

    Well, technically, Brienne hasn't come across them. I think the smallfolk would be munchkins in this case.
  4. Fire Eater

    The Dornish Letter

    Aegon the Conqueror was described as "determined to refuse" the offer of peace by the Dornish. By that point, many of his lords had died in the First Dornish War or had been tortured and/or maimed as was the case of his Hand and closest friend, Orys Baratheon. And not to mention his greatest loss: Rhaenys, the sister-wife and mother to his heir, the only woman he had ever truly loved. His heart would have been hardened just by that personal loss, and he would have had a desire for vengeance as demonstrated by him and Visenya burning every castle in Dorne (except Sunspear) after Rhaenys's death. However, his opinion changed after being given a letter. Whatever was written in it, clearly had an emotional impact on him given his hand was bleeding from being clenched so hard. He then burned the letter, not wanting anyone to see what was written. He then left for Dragonstone immediately, and returned to agree to the peace. In "Sons of the Dragon," it is mentioned that Aegon "flew to Sunspear on Balerion on the tenth anniversary of the peace accords to celebrate a 'feast of friendship' with Deria Martell, the reigning Princess of Dorne. Prince Aenys accompanied him on Quicksilver." Aegon and Deria appeared to be on good enough to terms to celebrate the peace between them. The question on every reader's mind is "What was in that letter?" One theory is that it was ensorceled, which I think we can easily dismiss. I don't know where Nymor would get the spells. The next theory is that Nymor threatened to use all of Dorne's wealth to hire a FM to kill Aenys, Aegon's son and heir. The problem with that theory is that Aegon had six (seven if you separate the riverlands and the Iron Isles) more kingdoms than his to outbid him, and the point behind hiring the FM is so the customer doesn't get caught. It doesn't take a genius to say that if Aegon was willing to burn every Dornish castle to avenge Rhaenys, then having his son by that same woman murdered would likely trigger similar reprisals. An offer of peace that comes with a threat would have enraged Aegon, and it also destroys the point of goodwill that was demonstrated by bringing Meraxes' skull. The third explanation, and I think the one most accepted, is that they had Rhaenys, who had been tortured and mutilated after her capture at Hellholt, and Nymor promised to put her out of her misery as an incentive to the peace. The first issue with that theory is that if the Dornish had Rhaenys this whole time all those years, why didn't they use her before when they first had her? As Aegon's favorite sister-wife, she would have been a valuable hostage to use to bring Aegon to the negotiating table. Secondly, like with the second theory, Aegon would undoubtedly have been enraged at the thought of his sister-wife having been alive all this time being tortured and mutilated, and being told that killing her was part of the peace. He would have demanded her back in whatever condition, and counter-threatened something along the lines of turning Sunspear into ash. Edit: Also, why would Nymor send his daughter and heir to deliver such a threat? As well as risking making her a target for Aegon's wrath, he would have essentially handed him a valuable hostage on a silver platter that Aegon could use to counter him on Rhaenys. I think there is a fourth explanation that hasn't been mentioned: that letter wasn't written by Nymor, but by Rhaenys. After Meraxes fell to the ground, and she was badly injured, contrary to what one would usually think, the Dornish gave her a bed and had a maester (provided he wasn't killed in the assault) take care of her. They knew her value as a hostage, and when she got better they would tell Aegon they had her. However, as time passed, her condition grew worse and her health continued to deteriorate. Close to death she had one request, to be given some parchment and quill to write a final letter to Aegon. It is mentioned her bones were never returned, but neither were Rhaegar's, because the Targaryens cremate their dead. She was likely cremated upon her death per her request, and her ashes returned to her childhood home of Dragonstone. I think Aegon left for Dragonstone to meet up with the ship carrying her urn. Aegon would of course been emotional recognizing his wife's words in her last letter to him. He would have burned it simply because the letter was a private, personal matter. The fifth explanation is that it was simply Nymor stating that her ashes were being returned to Dragonstone. In either scenario, Aegon would have been moved enough by by the Dornish's actions to accept the peace. The awful things the Dornish did during the war only served to escalate the situation, and make things worse, but the one noble, honorable act ends up being what ends the war.
  5. Fire Eater

    Euron Greyjoy and his Obsession with Mutes????

    Euron wants a crew of mutes since mutes can't give away your secrets.
  6. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Except Robb wasn't purposefully setting Roose up for a disastrous defeat. Roose knew he was going to face Tywin, and how big an army Tywin had. Glover didn't know Tarly was headed for him, and that Gregor had taken Harrenhal. Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Glover had to do with what he had, and he managing to inflict heavy casualties and retreat despite being pinned against the sea means he did an excellent job given the situation. No, it doesn't. I said Robb picked the most dangerous job in picking to fight Jaime Lannister not that he always picks the most dangerous job. You are going against the text. Going by sheer numbers, Robb was given the more dangerous job since he was outnumbered 2 to 1. Robert, by virtue of being king, was the one giving orders at the Trident not Ned. Ned had no command over Robert. No, you are putting words in my mouth and overreaching. I said he picked the more dangerous job, and gave Roose the less dangerous one. If they have sentries and scouts they could potentially sight the Northern army on its way. They could mobilize their forces for an attack. That's also taking into account that Robb would also have to split his forces into three with each force being smaller in numbers than the enemy they face. A mounted rider can easily take on a foot soldier in one-on-one. However, en masse foot soldiers forming a shieldwall can withstand a cavalry charge as was the case in the Battle of Hastings with Harold's infantry holding off the Norman cavalry. History disproves your point. He knew Ironborn would want to go back to the Iron Islands after Balon died to deal with succession. A token force would be left behind to hold Moat Cailin with no more than few hundred men. The towers at the moat could also hold only a limited number. That is the fallacy of presentism. Robb made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish suggested setting a trap for Jaime by baiting him for a chase. They still outnumbered Robb's known forces by a factor of two. The infantry in the middle was able to hold off a cavalry charge led by Robb until a sortie took them from behind. Robb had no idea how many men were left in Riverrun after Jaime's assault. Again, he made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish arrived. It was still the more dangerous option. No, it is clearly stated at the point Robb made the decision, he clearly had the more dangerous job. His capital wasn't undefended, or where did Ser Rodrik Cassel get the men to crush the Ironborn at Torrhen's Square? Robb didn't expect Roose to betray him. Even the best of statesmen can't guess what everyone's thinking. You fail to take into account that battle isn't one-on-one, but multiple fighters fighting in units. Historians agree that disciplined infantry en masse can withstand most cavalry charges. The strength of cavalry relies on momentum once they hit a shield wall, and if they don't break the shieldwall, they can be surrounded by infantry and run through with a pike, pulled off their horse or have their horse killed from under them. https://books.google.fi/books?id=nQDBUgwGae4C&pg=PA39&dq=cavalry+effective+misconceptions&hl=en&sa=X&ei=nePJUZfSLeTQiwK8wYDABg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=cavalry effective misconceptions&f=true Again, no, Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Tarly wasn't at Duskendale until long after Glover had already arrived. Roose was sent to face Tywin. It seems as if it doesn't matter that he was set up. He wasn't forewarned about Tarly, and he didn't hear about the Battle of the Blackwater. Roose clearly knew about the latter, and could have sent a message to Glover. He also likely knew the Lannisters would send an army against Glover. The last he likely heard Stannis was marching towards King's Landing, and the city and Lannisters appeared doomed. Due to being set up, and purposeful lack of intel from Roose. Roose, like any commander, would have been expected to send a message to their subordinate telling them that Harrenhal is occupied by the enemy, and what I just mentioned before. That doesn't demonstrate superiority on your part, just a lack of maturity. How many people have ever been convinced in an argument by being condescended to or insulted? It also makes it harder for people you're debating to take you seriously. He works as an Assistant Professor at City University of New York with a PhD in Public Policy History. You discount an actual historian? That is what in debate is known as a non sequitur. Doing what other people with popular blogs do counts against him how? His posts are free. Do you have any evidence to back up your claims? Did you extensively go through his tumblrs and wordpress posts? Lord Hornwood was killed, whose lands border Roose's. He was simply hedging his bets, and probably waited until the Battle of the Blackwater to completely throw in with Tywin.
  7. Fire Eater

    What if: Emperor Aegon the Conqueror?

    Seconded. Aegon had his chance when he could have allied with Volatnis in conquering the Free Cities, but instead chose to fight against them. While Westeros has a millenia-long historical tradition of monarchies, Essos is completely different. The Free Cities have no history of monarchies. The Freehold of Valyria was a republic, and the Free Cities didn't have monarchies but magisters, archons and the only monarch, the Prince of Pentos, is just a ceremonial figurehead used as a scapegoat should a crop fail or war be lost.
  8. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    He has people at the ToJ, with the Daynes having been friends of Rhaegar. It is going to be confirmed eventually, or why put it in the story in the first place? They were legitimized after Addam mounted Seasmoke. That is taken to mean that mounting a dragon proves that one has blood of the dragon. Don't tell me mounting a dragon had nothing to do with the decision to legitimize the boys. A dragon proves he has blood of the dragon, and lends evidence to his claim. It wouldn't be taken to prove Jon's heritage alone, but also Howland, Wylla's and possibly, the Daynes' testimony. Where would Jon get a Dragonhorn? A Dragonhorn also kills whoever blows it, and I doubt Jon would ever sacrifice someone with that thing. It also wouldn't help him given everyone would hear it, and know he used it. So using the horn wouldn't prove his Targaryen heritage. As for skinchanging, GRRM said there is no record of a dragon having been warged, so I don't know where Dany would get the idea with no one she knows or any Southron allies, will know he is a skinchanger. Hell, most people in the North don't know, except a few at the Wall. Dany and Jon would have just met in that scenario, and she likely wouldn't have heard about his skinchanging. To tell you the truth, I think Jon would skinchange a dragon before he tries to mount it to potentially avoid a horrible death. His dragonblood would at least get his foot through the door. Well, in ADwD, they go off to hunt, so they control their eating schedules and food portions. That they have to eat daily suggests they have to, and they can't go for long stretches of time without food. Hell, I think judging by Drogon's actions when he arrives back in Meereen which is eat Barsena and the boar, he left his cave because he was running out of food. The hatchling would need to find a supply of charred meat for six more months after the corpses decompose. So are direwolves (they have some form of telepathic bond from what we've seen of the Starks when warging into them), yet there are rules. I know you know that GRRM would never do things like have them speak or grow wheels, he keeps magic at a certain limit. He is using some level of magic realism. There are rules such as some magic requiring blood sacrifice, and the higher the level of magic the greater the number of sacrifices. I'm going for a strict interpretation while you seem to be going for a looser one. I'm using the scientific method. Dany's dragons are the only ones we see grow up in the series, and they're the only evidence we have. Smoke didn't mean he was able to breathe fire yet. All we know is Drogon first breathed fire seven months after hatching. Let's say a dragon can possibly learn earlier at five months, that still leaves four months without food. A hatchling couldn't have survived unassisted for months without food with a metabolism that requires it to eat many times a week. Well, Dany's dragons are the template. They're the closest thing to evidence. Any other is speculation at his point. I don't think there is anything that says more food = faster maturation, but it can result in a bigger, fatter baby dragon. I think in nature, it generally doesn't work that way with the exception of malnourishment, which can stunt growth. As to the bolded, that isn't how burden of proof works. The burden is generally supposed to fall on the person who makes the claim "X causes Y" (Dragons can mature much faster than Dany's) that challenges the status quo not the person who claims "X doesn't cause Y" or the status quo. Otherwise, if it were the other way around, the burden would be on you to disprove my theory that in space there is an entire planet made of spaghetti with a giant meatball for a moon. My claims regarding dragon maturation have evidence in the form of Dany's dragons, which even if you think it isn't much, is still more than the evidence you have for your claims which is to say, none. The heating pools are clearly caused by hot springs, otherwise how would a dragon survive deep underground without food or air? That still means they weren't able to breathe fire. It is an ability that takes a while to develop like young cobras learning to control the injection of venom from their fangs.
  9. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    That's a completely different battle that absolutely doesn't fit as analogy. Neither Tywin nor Jaime were in a fortress, but in the field. Robb's forces also clearly outnumbered the Ironborn while the Lannister forces outnumbered his. Robb picked the Greatjon for this given his job is to distract an enemy, and to put up a fierce fight, which actually suits the Greatjon. I mistook your number thinking the 3k referred to Robb's cavalry instead of Jaime's. Either way Robb was outnumbered more than 2 to 1, and 15,000 men is still 15,000. He would potentially be facing a shieldwall with twice as many infantry as Robb's forces that could withstand a cavalry charge with 3000 enemy cavalry to flank them. However, Robb played it smart. Common sense? Robb lead a cavalry charge against the infantry before the gates of Riverrun, and the Lannister infantry managed to hold off the cavalry until they're taken in the rear by Blackwood. A shieldwall can stop a cavalry charge, especially given the Lannisters as GRRM noted, have the best infantry. That still would result in high casualties if the goal was to absolutely slaughter the Northern army. No, math and military realities as well as the books show otherwise. You're going against Cat's own words. Robb still was not immune to harm in battle even with guards as he was expected to fight. So you're saying Roose was just going to sit around doing nothing? Commanders are expected to do some on the ground thinking. Robb was focused on bringing Tywin west. His failures were political not military. You're argument makes no sense. Glover was sent there following Roose's orders, and Roose purposely sent the Northern army to get destroyed knowing as he had thrown in with Tywin by then. It was a disaster, because Roose intended it. Glover wasn't expecting Tarly to attack him. The odds weren't in his favor in that battle, but against him since he was set up. He was pinned against the sea which is a bad position. Instead of getting pushed into the sea with his army destroyed a la the Fishfeed in the Dance of Dragons, he manages to get his forces out of there and inflict heavy casualties. This was also against Tarly "the finest soldier in the realm" who inflicted the only defeat on Robert in the Battle of Ashford using only his vangauard. That in and of itself is a feat. No numbers are given as to how many men were lost on Tarly's side. It also isn't given how many men Tarly had with him, but I am guessing as large as Glover's or larger. Condescension is uncalled for. Atwell is an actual historian with knowledge of medieval warfare, politics, history and customs. He does re-reads of the chapters doing military and political analyses. That quote was from his analysis of the chapter showing the Battle of the Green Fork. Roose is weakening his rivals, and at the very least thinking of joining the Lannisters. They have more to offer than Robb could. I'm not a Robb fan.
  10. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Not according to Catelyn: In determining, who had the more dangerous job you're ignoring the math. He was leading a force against an army that outnumbered his five to one compared to Roose's force having a similar size to Tywin's. Tywin's army couldn't have "absolutely slaughtered" a force that size without incredibly heavy casualties on his side. Robb's choice clearly was more dangerous. Roose wasn't given nothing to do. He was fighting Lannisters, and generals don't need to constantly need to get orders from the highest command given they are expected to do some thinking and strategizing for themselves. Roose Bolton was the one who sent Glover to Duskendale, don't you remember? Glover didn't decide to do it, Bolton ordered it. You are also completely mischaracterizing Glover. He managed to inflict heavy casualties against an enemy army and retreat despite being pinned against the sea, and this is against whom Kevan described as "the finest soldier in the realm." Please, Roose was planning betrayal from the start. According to Atwell:
  11. Fire Eater

    Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

    Robb took the more dangerous job like his father would have. He managed to create a huge setback for Tywin by destroying Jaime's army, and lifting the siege at Riverrun, effectively blocking him off from his home base. Robb's only mistake was picking Roose Bolton in charge of the army meeting Tywin instead of someone like Robett Glover.
  12. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Maybe, but fortunately in Jon's case there is no brother, just him. But they weren't legitimized until after Addam mounted a dragon, not before. The fact that maesters dispute his origins means it isn't public knowledge that he was Corlys's son, and that Corlys never publicly acknowledged him as his son. All that is publicly known is that Addam mounted Seasmoke, claiming to be Laenor's son, and was accepted as a Velaryon right after that. That could taken as precedent for proving one's dragon lineage. The problem with your analogy regarding Nettle, Ulf and Hugh was that they didn't claim to be the children of Targaryens or Velaryons. The Targaryen bloodline didn't marry into Northern houses, and their marriages have been documented. The only sources are Houses Velaryon, Plumm (a few Westerlands houses that married into them), a few Dornish houses and Baratheon and a few stormlands houses. It's a very long shot, and I think the consensus is the Starks have no blood of the dragon. The proof that Jon is Rhaegar's would be stronger than being through the female line given no one knows who his mother was. That is why the dragon is important to prove his heritage. Wylla would provide testimony, and Ashara Dayne if she is alive. There's one problem with the first paragraph: Jon doesn't have a dragonhorn. If he used it, she would clearly know given the noise those things make. It also wouldn't prove his claim. I think no hints suggests to them starting out as friends or enemies. However, remember she is going to be fighting Stannis whom Jon has thrown in with along with the North. She also has no love for House Stark who she remembers as the Usurper's dogs. So, the chances are good their relationship may be more likely to start out antagonistic. No, the baby dragon doesn't know it's going to be its last meal for six months. Besides, dragons need to eat regularly, pretty much daily from what we've read in ADwD, and six months without food would kill many endothermic animals with that kind of a metabolism. Yeah, we haven't seen them try. I don't think they can procreate yet, and it will likely be a couple of years at least. Those remarks were speaking about, not the subject at hand, but the speaker. How is that not personal? ' As to the second point, compared to what you've been saying that have no evidence? That dragons can survive six months without food? That meat doesn't rot away after a month? That some dragons have accelerated aging? I'm using observations from the books along with knowledge of biology. Then why did she still need to char meat for him if he could just cook it himself up to that point? Then why was that the first time we saw any of the dragons breathe fire? I think it would have been mentioned if they could start breathing flame. It clearly takes many months before they learn how to fly or breathe fire. I see nothing in the text that provides a counter-example. You claimed they could breathe fire as soon as they hatched. If that was true they would have roasted the pieces of uncharred meat she first offered them. Wild or not, if Drogon is anything to go by, it would take months before this hypothetical hatchling would be able to breathe fire. I'm pointing out that it wasn't stated how old they were when they left for the wild.
  13. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    But that knowledge wasn't public, and even in WOIAF it is stated that Addam's true origins are a matter of dispute. Given that, it was seen in public that Addam proved his heritage by mounting Seasmoke. Alyn came with the package given he was Addam's full brother. They have nothing to go on regarding who Jon's mother would be, especially given the math. Wyllas came from Starfall as a wet nurse for Jon, meaning Jon clearly came from Dorne. Jon was born more than a year after Ned met Ashara, so that rules her out. Ned only stayed in Dorne for a few months, not long enough for it to be by Wylla. Name to me one of Ned's ancestors from the south through the female line. The Starks tend to marry north of the Neck. There is no known dragonblood in any of the Northern houses they married into. Except I think she would believe Jon has no dragonblood, and there is a good chance he would fail. Look at all the potential dragonriders during the Dance of Dragons. Daenerys would be inclined to disbelieve since his story takes the one she lived her life by, and turns it on its head. Yeah, it does. It starts to liquefy after a month. Drogon pretty much matures at the same rate as his siblings. I don't see any records of dragons that are bigger mature faster than smaller dragons. Not all dragons are born or grow into the same size like with all creatures. Size =/= more mature. From what we know with how big dragons get, as well as how old, he clearly hasn't reached maturity. At a few years-old he is still a juvenile. From what we've seen with Dany's dragons, they have high metabolism as is the case with animals that are capable of flight. She mentions in ADwD they need to eat daily. That is also to mention that a dragon can only eat so much at one time, especially a hatchling that doesn't know its food is going to disappear soon. I doubt a hatchling with a high metabolism could survive six months without food. Also, dude, chill out. Keep it professional not personal, otherwise you should excuse yourself from this conversation if you find yourself unable. Few arguments have ever been won through personal attacks/remarks. But as Viserys noted and we already discussed, dragons only eat cooked meat. It would be 5-6 months before the hatchling would be able to breathe fire, and eat cooked meat. How would it get cooked meat? I did point out that Drogon didn't fly or breathe fire until seven months after hatching at the HotU. If they could breathe fire since they hatched, then why didn't the dragons need Dany to char their meat for them when they could have just seared the meat themselves with their dragonflame? We have no record of how old they were when they set out on their own, but I think it would have been when they were old enough to fend for themselves.
  14. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    I think they were dead. It took a fire and blood to hatch them. There is precedent for it with Addam of Hull being accepted into House Velaryon after mounting Seasmoke. The Starks never intermarried with the Targaryens or any family south of the Neck minus the Blackwoods, and thus wouldn't have married into families that intermarried with House Targaryen. Howland Reed and the Daynes would also provide their word that Rhaegar is Jon's father. How many people actually know Jon is a skinchanger? The answer is no one south of the Gift. I think he would mount a dragon posed as a challenge by Dany. If he refuses, he pretty much sends the statement that he isn't a Targaryen, and if he tries he could lose his life, removing him as a pretender. That would appear to be the most convenient way to be rid of him for Dany. That meat would have rotted away quickly before it even had a chance to fly. Larger hatchlings don't get to learn to fly earlier. Drogon grows bigger than his siblings, but he matures at pretty much the same rate. We have no examples of accelerated maturation for dragons.The hatchling would need enough charred meat to supply it for seven months, which is not likely the case. The dragons didn't eat nothing during that time in the Red Waste, Dany breastfed them. You mean if the dragon was there. Seven months after the burning of Winterfell would have been more than enough time for squatters to arrive. I already pointed out that it would take at least seven months to learn flight or breathe fire. It's food supply would have disappeared quickly after a month, and I don't think it could go six months without food.
  15. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Except that egg would be theoretically over a hundred years old. The hatching of dead dragon eggs was the miracle not the mundane. Couldn't he simply just mount one of her dragons? That would serve a narrative purpose as it provides evidence for his Targaryen heritage. The bodies would have rotted away after a while. It takes around a month for a human corpse to liquefy, and that's not including maggots feeding on a corpse. It also took Dany's dragons seven months after hatching until they learned to fly. Those corpses wouldn't have been enough to sustain a baby dragon for seven months. We also learn from Theons chapters in ADwD that there were squatters at WF. They would have spotted the dragon, and word would have spread.
  16. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    He specifically said "The birth of Dany's dragons was unique, magical, wonderous, a miracle." I doubt a second miracle like that could happen in the same timeline. Another dragon would also take away from the impact of Dany's dragons. Melisandre would also try to get it for Stannis. I sincerely doubt that the dragon could grow with no parent to care for it, and I doubt it grow magically accelerated as we have not seen a single speck of evidence of it in the books regarding any dragons. The whole theory falls apart easily.
  17. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    Unlikely given GRRM said Dany's case was a miracle, a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
  18. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    There is just one problem with that: newborn dragons can't fly or breathe fire. That wasn't an actual dragon Summer saw. I think it is more likely a hint that Daenerys will eventually come to Winterfell. GRRM would have placed plenty of hints for an actual dragon hatching at Winterfell.
  19. Fire Eater

    Will Dany's Dragons lay eggs?

    I don't think that is going to happen. It is unlike GRRM for a dragon to appear out of nowhere. Also, I don't think a dragon would have gone unnoticed; GRRM would at least have peppered hints in the Northern chapters such as claimed sightings. That dragon would also be untrained. As to the main topic, I think one of the dragons will undergo gender transition as animals that can change sex, do so when placed in single sex environments. You just need to dragons to create a clutch of eggs.
  20. Fire Eater

    Jaime and Aegon

    I think feel conflicted if he fights Aegon, but that is if he accepts the story. He may have some doubts about the narrative. He likely won't switch sides either way given Aegon isn't like to forgive him for killing Aerys. However, I do think there is a hint that the reveal of R+L=J will leave him conflicted after Jon's parentage is confirmed. The old guilt he felt toward's Rhaegar's children will appear again. He will ultimately break from Cersei though I don't think we will find him serving Jon anytime soon.
  21. Fire Eater

    Are the Rhoynar supposed to be Carthage?

    Yes, the destruction of Old Ghis fit the description of Carthage's destruction with the city burned and the fields sowed with salt. The wars between Valyria and the overseas empire of Ghis also fit the Punic Wars.
  22. Fire Eater

    Do you think Balon's plan had merit?

    Except everyone among the Ironborn and outside was saying he was pushing for independence. His advice to Asha was basically based off his own experience, that it is okay to kneel after being beaten in submission only to wait for another opportunity to rise again. Whether Lady Glover would honor the deal is highly debatable. She likely knows the deal couldn't be pushed through without the consent of the liege lord of the North. No deal was made, or why would Asha continue talk about the North ceding Sea Dragon Point and the Stony Shore if the deal has already been made? Source for Balon thinking Robb wouldn't survive the war? Except the North hasn't been beaten into submission. White Harbor is unconquered, and has ships and forces enough to resist the Ironborn. It is a partial conquest at most. They chose the Baratheons as their rulers while no one chose the Greyjoys. The Targaryens had dragons that allowed them to win without a fight, and no history of raiding the North or having attacked the North or the Starks up until Aerys. Yet, none of those people ever sided with the Ironborn throughout Northern history as far as we know. They were likely the result of salt wives, and children of rape aren't likely to be raised by their mothers to love their fathers. The phrase is "the North remembers" or in other words the North has a long memory. They ikely wouldn't forget the Ironborn's history of raiding and attacking the North. He wouldn't need to go North just tell the Northerners to prepare their defenses on the western coast for an Ironborn assault. Tywin was shrewd enough to know that. By doing what he did, he pretty much undid his endgame. You forgot Robb defeating Tywin in that scenario, as for much of the beginning of the war until the BoBW Robb had the upper hand. Wars often don't end very quickly, especially with two qualified commanders in the form of Tywin and Robb. The scenario with the ravens is implausible as there is no recorded instance of that happening. That's why its important to send a raven. Any skilled commander could see that Tywin using chevauchee to draw Robb Stark to Harrenhal. And how many of Robb's men were outside Harrenhal to shoot down ravens? That is another bad analogy. Negotiation is all about offer and counter offers. You don't start negotiations after having used up your only bargaining chip. It's not debatable, Balon clearly did. The lords would know by raven. If Tywin has stayed there for a while then sending a raven shouldn't have been a problem. Balon's maester would feed him this, or word of mouth which travels faster by water than by land. Some ships that previously stopped at the riverlands could have been easy sources of information. Here : Tywin clearly wasn't going to give Balon any concessions for invading the North. That doesn't fit into any of Balon's goals. Nothing in what Tywin said regarding that would be met with approval by Balon. But as you already pointed out, Tywin was planning on placing his potential grandson as Lord of Winterfell. He asked for his supposed dominion over the North to be recognized by the IT. Finally, something we agree on. No, the first acts of war count as part of war as any historian can tell you. The Westerlands were plunged into war when they were clearly attacked. No, what Tywin describes is at most a partial conquest in that Balon only conquered a part of the North. People also say Aegon the Conqueror conquered the Seven Kingdoms even though he didn't conquer Dorne. It's likely that, like with Aegon, people were just speaking loosely. GRRM clearly says "subject to Winterfell" so they are recognized as under Winterfell's dominion. Did you even read the quoted text? Over a "score" of riverlords doesn't count as many allies? The riverlords weren't fighting for the Ironborn, but rather against the Stormlanders. You're saying Harwyn could have beaten the Stormlands and riverlands forces combined on land on his own? That is highly implausible. Harwyn ruled the riverlands by playing divide and conquer in a region with a long history of internal strife. The one thing that united riverlords was their hatred of the Ironborn.
  23. Fire Eater

    Do you think Balon's plan had merit?

    Only if he's been beaten into submission. The deal likely wouldn't have been honored. Robb clearly wasn't going to give any Northern territory to the Ironborn. The Northmen aren't like to cede land to invaders. The Northerners would have tried to expel them first before considering ceding any land. Northmen along the coast still frighten their children with tales of the Ironborn from bear Island to the mountain clans. It has nearly always been Ironborn as the aggressors, attacking the Northern coasts, and as is always mentioned "the North remembers." The only reason he is heading North is because of the Ironborn. This is about hypotheticals when Balon is considering attacking. Yes, after the Battle of the Green Fork. Balon had likely already started prepping for his invasion before Tywin was even there Do they? And do they know how long he is staying there for? Where do the residents of Westeros get this information? No, sorry, that is not obvious at all. He can't simply pick up a phone and start a phone call. The Riverlands is at war, even if Balon was aware of where Tywin was, knew that Tywin was not going to move position in the distant future and was willing for raven to come and go as they come to an agreement there is always the risk that the raven would be shot down (like Robb was able to do at the Twins) or these negotiations found out by other parties. Time is important. Again, this is about before Balon even attacks. No, Tywin was at Harrenhal for half a year according to the most accurate timeline, Balon didn't need a phone, they had ravens remember? Balon could have sent a raven. He had six months in between the Battle of Riverrun and Tywin leaving. He had plenty of time to send ravens. Everyone knows Tywin is at Harrenhal given he stays there for months, and residents get info by word of mouth and raven. Well, I wouldn't call it a third, given the Gifts aren't that big chunks, and it still is a lot of land. I already provided the quote in another post if you looked. That is no indication that Tywin was going to give Balon the North or independence for any service. Tywin clearly isn't backing Balon's attempt to take the North, or deciding to let him keep it. Balon didn't ask for the North only for a short period of time. There is a difference between granting someone something, and making the Machiavellian move to let your enemies fight each other and weaken themselves, and then send your grandson at the right moment to secure the North. He's got the land and Tywin can't do anything about it till Spring. They've taken it. Robb, Cat and many others concede this in the quotes I have you. By that same logic, Germany invading Poland doesn't count as part of WWII just because it was an opening act? That argument makes no logical sense. Burning someone's fleet is clearly an act of war. Tywin can do something about it. He has the royal and Redwyne fleet that he can send to crush the Ironborn, including transporting men to North. Except how do Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square count as the entire North? No one in the North is paying taxes or fealty to Balon. Taken doesn't mean "conquered." Fair enough. But Skagos still owes fealty to Winterfell, and I think Robb just let them go their own way. Give me one piece of solid evidence that says the Skagosi aren't sworn to Winterfell despite the Appendices saying otherwise. So they found other ways. That is exactly what I said. Thank you. You're missing the point. The Ironborn were able to take them, because they had access to many rivers and allies amongst the riverlords. Harwyn had a lot of help from the riverlords. He likely wouldn't have won without their help. What other ways could the Ironborn have used to conquer the North? How could have Balon held the North without support from any Northerners? How could have taken all the North, such a large territory with a small number of men who have no experience, Balon included, in land battles far away from water? Manderly had dozens of warships along the White Knife that could challenge the Ironborn's smaller longships. The odds are clearly stacked against the Ironborn, and their hold wouldn't last winter.
  24. Fire Eater

    Do you think Balon's plan had merit?

    He didn't surrender to Tywin so that comparison doesn't work. He wouldn't get a better opportunity than this one. Asha wasn't going to be given anything by the North. Their history with the Ironborn is anything, but positive. As long as Robb's enemies are in the south, that is clearly where he is going to stay. He also needs to stay in the riverlands for a while given it is part of his dominion. You missed that as I have already pointed it is clearly stated in the text that Tywin is at Harrenhal, and everyone in Westeros knows that. Balon obviously wouldn't have trouble locating Tywin. If Balon wants concessions from Tywin than he has to negotiate before he attacks not after. He tried to negotiate after, and that went nowhere. Tywin would be an idiot to send the negotiations to Robb. Why would Robb go home to deal with a potential threat that hasn't appeared by abandoning an active threat that is already in the riverlands? Robb wouldn't need to go home, just send a raven to Winterfell to instruct them to strengthen defenses along the western coastline in case of an Ironborn attack. If victory depends on an alliance, then some negotiations need to start before launching an attack. No, re-read ACoK it came before the BoBW Firstly, it is half the kingdom in terms of landmass. Secondly, unless you provide the quote, I doubt it exists. Tywin made it explicitly clear he wasn't going to give Balon the North or independence. Thirdly, Just because no one calls it that doesn't mean it isn't. Having your entire fleet burned in your own port is embarrassing. The Greyjoys burned the Lannister fleet during the Greyjoy Rebellion. How is that considered peacetime? Balon should have started negotiations beforehand as Tywin wasn't going to give him anything now that Balon is already doing what Tywin would have asked for. Robb can't get back into the North without taking Moat Cailin which blocks his way. That doesn't mean the Ironborn conquered the North as the Ironborn as you clearly stated before as they only captured two keeps, and the North wasn't beaten into submission as later developments show Northerners fighting such as the Ryswells and Dustins burning the fleet in the Fever River. The people of the North also still see Robb as their overlord. That argument is completely baseless. If a rebellion for independence was crushed then that clearly means the Starks are their liege lords. Only a fraction of the North's strength came to Robb's call. The mountain clans didn't come, does that mean they don't acknowledge Robb's rule? The West Coast was along the water, and marine assaults are among the Ironborn's forte. It's not rocket science. Your arguments completely miss a lot in terms of comparisons. They are answered easily just by reading WOIAF. They conquered and held the riverlands, because they had support among the lords like Bracken, and lords and smallfolk of the riverlands were rebelling against the Storm King. Much of the fighting force was made up of riverlanders. The riverlands also has a high density of rivers which longships could sail. The Iron kings also played divide and conquer with the fractitious riverlords to consolidate their rule. Whereas Balon had no allies among the Northern lords, and there were only a few rivers in the North. To get to rivers like the White Knife, they would have to carry their longships far into the interior. Argilac felt threatened by the Ironborn since they had the riverlands to augment their forces, and his Storm Kingdom was in decline. It's a terrible comparison that leaves much to be desired.
  25. Fire Eater

    Do you think Balon's plan had merit?

    Except while Renly was willing to let Robb call himself "King in the North" like the Martells use "Prince of Dorne" he wasn't willing to let Robb secede, and form an independent kingdom separate from his. Renly wouldn't let the Iron Isles secede, the Tyrells would especially never approve. Your claim that Balon would give up his crown has absolutely no evidence. Balon never offered to put aside his crown. Robb wasn't going to go North given Tywin wasn't threatening the North, and he was in the riverlands. Tywin is known to be a skilled general as Balon himself acknowledged, and Tywin wouldn't be finished quickly, especially since he was holed up at Harrenhal, a strong fortress. There was also the issue of Renly, and Robb hadn't dealt with him yet. Robb wasn't expecting an attack on the North. Balon had plenty of time to send ravens. Except Balon sent his offer before the BoBW, when Frey and Bolton likely sent their ravens. Frey didn't consider defecting until after the BoBW. Bolton wasn't offering to secede either. Do you really think Tywin was really going to let Balon secede with half the kingdom? Or that an extremely proud man who never forgets slights like Tywin would give that to a guy who humiliated him by burning his fleet at anchor in Lannisport? No, Balon clearly didn't conquer the North as none of the Northerners acknowledged his rule, the Northerner lords were still fighting him, and most parts of the North were still unconquered. Capturing two keeps, Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte, don't count as conquering the North (Winterfell doesn't count since it was cleared of Ironborn and recaptured). That's like saying when Aegon and Rhaenys had gone into Dorne and declared victory that they had conquered Dorne, but that clearly wasn't the case. The second comment is a complete exaggeration. Skagos still owes fealty to Winterfell, and acknowledges their rule as exemplified by their last attempt at independence was crushed. That still completely ignores what Asha pointed out that the Ironborn don't have the discipline to withstand a cavalry charge.
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