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Could an Essosi invasion of Westeros be successful?


Garth Greenhands

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I was inspired by this post about the hate levied against the Dorthraki and Unsullied http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/125223-illogical-amount-of-disdain-for-dothraki-ironborn-and-unsullied/page-3?hl=%20five%20%20forts



If we were to restore Westeros to it's full strength, say before the war of the five kings under Robert's leadership. Now, this is a complete hypothetical and Westeros is far from united at full strength at this point in the series, but this is purely a fantasy question to see if there is any force on planetos (that we know of) that can threaten the Seven Kingdoms at full strength.



Could the forces Dany has thus far assembled and is likely to gather soon actually successfully conquer the seven Kingdoms?



Well let's look at the forces:


Our invading Essosi consist of roughly 8,000 Unsullied


Possibly up to 50,000 Dothraki


Sellsword companies probably barely numbering in the thousands


and three small dragons



Now, assuming she can somehow transport tens of thousands of Dothraki, and their horses, across the narrow sea, what will she be facing?



I have based my numbers for the armies on Westeros on this post : http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/125179-relative-army-sizes-of-westeros-pre-wot5k/?hl=%2Bfive+%2Bforts which I believe is reasonable



Granted, the size of the Northern, Vale and Stormland Armies have probably been slightly over-estimated but even to take the most conservative numbers for each region:



The North : 40,000


The Vale : 40,000


The Reach : 70,000


The Westerlands : 45,000


The Stormlands : 30,000


Dorne : 25,000


The Riverlands : 35,000


The Crownlands : 15,000



....not to mention several huge naval fleets



Now, you can see where this is going, so even if we allow for the Iron Islanders to have joined Dany, we still have a lightly armoured, less technologicaly advanced host numbering less than 100,000 attempting to invade a nation with more highly trained, armoured and armed armies numbering well over 200,000. Probably not gonna end well.



Now, I could be way off in my assessment of this how situation, so please chime in and share what you think, and if you agree, what do you think it would take to successfully conquer Westeros, not including Dragons as we've already seen that happen.


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The Targaryens pre-dance could have easily done it, and in fact it's kind of a huge hole in the plot that they never did. You need conquests in order to fuel a regime like that, otherwise you collapse like a flan in a cupboard because of infighting.


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Is it only Dany's forces or we can include other Essosi as well?Because if Dany allied with the Sealord of Braavos,with the most powerful fleet in the world,Faceless Men and the Iron Bank,they might have a pretty good chance

Bravos aren't going to invade the only other place slavery is properly illegal!

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The Targaryens pre-dance could have easily done it, and in fact it's kind of a huge hole in the plot that they never did. You need conquests in order to fuel a regime like that, otherwise you collapse like a flan in a cupboard because of infighting.

It's clearly not a hole in the plot, there is a reason for it, we just don't know what that is!

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My random thoughts: Nobody succeeds in invading Westeros as winter descends . . . except the Mongols. Thank you Crash Course World History.



The Andals and Rhoynish were both migrations from Essos, as were the First Men. The only way I see an "Essos invasion" that's land based working given the precedents is if there was an entire people who needed to uproot for some reason, and eventually they'd be absorbed. There's no such culture mentioned.



The Golden Company are essentially self-repatriating by force: culturally they're Westerosi.



An invasion that could count on dragons for close air support roles could probably do very well indeed against a Westerosi force ten times the size in traditional battlefield engagements. If there was anything left of the GC when and if Dany lands with Unsullied, a kalasar, and at least one rideable dragon, I'd give an invasion a reasonable chance, but no guarantee.


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It's clearly not a hole in the plot, there is a reason for it, we just don't know what that is!

The only real reason I think it may be is that they foresaw it would probably create a rival kingdom in Essos and be ruled much like Rome later on, with two leaders for each side. I wouldn't do it that way, but after the first ruler it probably would schism.

However, it would be much more likely that the Targaryen dynasty and dragons still survived.

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Don't feel like looking for the quote in the first book but Jorah said he thought the Dothraki would beat a Westerosi army in an open field. All those numbers you posted for the Kingdoms are made up primarily of peasants with spears, not trained men at arms.



The Essos army the OP described would have the advantage from a military standpoint but Westeros has a shared culture and history. The seven kingdoms also have some of the most formidable defenses in the world. Winterfell, Kings Landing, Casterly Rock, The Twins, Riverrun, and Storms End, The Eyrie, are all really difficult to take even with superior numbers. The war would come down to siege tactics, and whether or not the large Essos fighting force with little cultural harmony could stand together for what would be a very long war as they try to starve out their oppostion.



The dragons are a wildcard. You need to be able to tame them before they actually matter.

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Bravos aren't going to invade the only other place slavery is properly illegal!

They would if since they are backing "the Breaker of Chains",Dany broke the slavery market,the Braavosi would enjoy that,but i just said Braavos since its a "fantasy"question.Of course Braavos wouldnt stand aside another Valyrian with dragons,they represent the empire they suffered...im only throwing a powerful ally on the Targaryen side

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Don't feel like looking for the quote in the first book but Jorah said he thought the Dothraki would beat a Westerosi army in an open field. All those numbers you posted for the Kingdoms are made up primarily of peasants with spears, not trained men at arms.

The Essos army the OP described would have the advantage from a military standpoint but Westeros has a shared culture and history. The seven kingdoms also have some of the most formidable defenses in the world. Winterfell, Kings Landing, Casterly Rock, The Twins, Riverrun, and Storms End, The Eyrie, are all really difficult to take even with superior numbers. The war would come down to siege tactics, and whether or not the large Essos fighting force with little cultural harmony could stand together for what would be a very long war as they try to starve out their oppostion.

The dragons are a wildcard. You need to be able to tame them before they actually matter.

And where are you getting the idea that they are peasants? Each kingdom can field, at full strength, tens of thousands of TRAINED soldiers, with thousands of men left behind to man the keeps. This idea that the richer and more prosperous nation somehow has no trained warriors is ludicrous. If anything, the Dothraki, who are "battle hardened" are the ones who lack true battlefield experience and certainly training. If the Seven Kingdoms were to use peasants and untrained spearmen as you suggest, each regions numbers would probably double. The only force that poses a true threat, in my opinion, are the Unsullied and they are a more defensive force with a fighting style that is drastically outdated when fighting against a varied fighting force of cavalry, infantry and archers. Their superhuman discipline is their main asset.

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They would if since they are backing "the Breaker of Chains",Dany broke the slavery market,the Braavosi would enjoy that,but i just said Braavos since its a "fantasy"question.Of course Braavos wouldnt stand aside another Valyrian with dragons,they represent the empire they suffered...im only throwing a powerful ally on the Targaryen side

Has she broken slavery though? She certainly has tried but the slaver cities she left behind are slaver cities still. I don't deny that Daenerys has the best of intentions, and does receive an undue amount of flack, but actions, not intentions are what matters and nothing she has done has caused a change for good. She simply threw the area into disarray.

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That shouldn't even be enough to conquer any single kingdom, if it has time to prepare, call the men and stock castles with food and troops. Supplies would be the main issue for Essosi. Sieges would be long, and 100k men would need a lot of food, where will they get it? You can only get so much from local peasants in a relatively sparsely populated continent, especially if local lords are warned of the attack and gather most of the resources themselves.



Also, a large portion of those troops will die on the way. Storms, diseases, bad food, lack of food and water. It's a very long journey. You probably also can't transport them all at once, it would take thousands of ships, considering all the horses and supplies.


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Doubt it. Nor could Westeros take Essos.

Having the Braavosi is not having the Faceless Men.

Essos has more ships but Westeros better soldiers.

Essos is more cities, while Westeros revolves around castles.

It would be pretty much impossible both ways.

:agree: . I've seen this argument in every possible variation, and the only conclusive answer is that neither side could win on the other's turf. Mounting a seaborn invasion using medieval technology is damned hard, especially when your opponent fights in a overall completely different manner. Aegon the First only pulled off his conquest because he was very specific about how he deployed his dragons and played a strong political game in the background, and even then he wasn't entirely successful.

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And where are you getting the idea that they are peasants? Each kingdom can field, at full strength, tens of thousands of TRAINED soldiers, with thousands of men left behind to man the keeps. This idea that the richer and more prosperous nation somehow has no trained warriors is ludicrous. If anything, the Dothraki, who are "battle hardened" are the ones who lack true battlefield experience and certainly training. If the Seven Kingdoms were to use peasants and untrained spearmen as you suggest, each regions numbers would probably double. The only force that poses a true threat, in my opinion, are the Unsullied and they are a more defensive force with a fighting style that is drastically outdated when fighting against a varied fighting force of cavalry, infantry and archers. Their superhuman discipline is their main asset.

No, he's right, the seven kingdoms have no standing army but the wall and what garrisons they keep on hand. Holding together an army is extremely expensive. They will be well armed if from the West for example, but there's a reason why you bloody them early to gain experience and confidence.

Cavalry will do nothing to unsullied, because cavalry are there to make infantry break and run, which is a huge in medieval warfare. Once they break, the battle is over. Charging into unsullied is a terrible waste, save those for sellswords. Unsullied will be annihilated by archers and especially crossbowmen, but used correctly they can form the core of a powerful army.

You can only levy around 1-2% of your population in GRRMworld because of the constant need for farm labour, as harvesting never really stops until late autumn and winter. After that you can gather up a deal more depending on the people we're talking about. 6-8% is around the max for medieval times as we know them, and evne then you will probably run into huge issues like famine.

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Lol fuck no. Even if we do use MAGIC to make sure they can all get to Westeros without deserting, rebelling, sinking, or dying of disease... these troops are simply awful. The Unsullied make zero sense as a military force; they're 2,000 years out of date, they wear next to no armor, and they're physically weak. The Dothraki are brain-dead, shirtless savages armed with curved swords and bows, with no siege engines, infantry, heavy cavalry, or ANYTHING other than shirtless hunters on horses. They were so shitty that unarmored eunuchs at a Bronze Age level of technology crushed a Dothraki army at a 7-1 number disadvantage. The dragons are babies, uncontrollable, and quite vulnerable. The sellswords might be decent, but there are only a few of them.



On the other hand, Westeros is basically a giant 15th century Britain. Its armies are extremely well trained and equipped on average, as fitting the point of feudalism. Their lands are inhospitable to any invader, thanks to the natural defenses of every single region except the Riverlands and Reach. Most of their generals are experienced in fighting actual wars, rather than butchering civilians. And by OP fiat, all of this considerable power is united.



To fully put in perspective just how ridiculous the Dothraki invasion plan was, and how completely and utterly delusional Daenerys is: in the late 13th century, there were two invasions of Japan. Invasions conducted by the actual Mongols- one of the most efficient, well-organized, and effective armies in history, and definitely the strongest army of the medieval period (though, contrary to popular belief, that didn't make them invulnerable). Now, not only were the Mongols infinitely more competent and more advanced than these armies, they were far more numerous, and invading a nation that was not only much, much, much, MUCH weaker than Westeros, but also much, much closer, and less than 5% of Westeros's size. They had every advantage going for them over the Essos invaders here.



The first invasion force, made up of Mongolian cavalry and Korean/Chinese infantry levies, consisted of 25,000 soldiers, plus sailors to man the 500-900 ships. They landed in southern Japan, at Hakata Bay. There, they found that the Japanese forces mustered to meet them were ill-equipped, disorganized, and horribly inexperienced at the Mongol style of warfare. They pretty much curb-stomped the Japanese... but they took enough casualties to realize that their invasion plan wasn't feasible. Then the Mongols suffered a crushing defeat, losing thousands of men as the Japanese home field advantage and numerical superiority began to tell. They got back on their ships to retreat, only for the ships to get sunk by hostile weather on the way out.



The second invasion force consisted of 140,000 soldiers on ~4,500 ships. The soldiers were mostly from China, commanded by Mongol officers, but were nonetheless way better than the fucking jokes you'd find in Essos. Unfortunately for them, the Japanese had learned from the last invasion. They weren't up to 13th century European standards, to say nothing of 15th century European ones, but they had fortified the country, and revamped their military. They ended up defeating the Mongol/Chinese/Korean invasion force despite being horribly outnumbered (2-3 Chinese/Mongol troops for every 1 Japanese). Mostly because the invaders were left leaderless and scattered due to various causes, and were unable to establish an effective beachhead due to said fortifications. Contrary to popular belief, the storm here didn't foil the invasion. It helped, certainly, but a relatively small percentage of the invasion force drowned. Tens of thousands of men were killed by Japanese soldiers on the beaches.



tl;dr: people much more competent and numerous than the Essosi have launched invasions on far more forgiving terms against much less competent and less numerous foes than what you'd find in Westeros, and completely failed. The Essosi have zero chance of doing half as well, much less BETTER.






Don't feel like looking for the quote in the first book but Jorah said he thought the Dothraki would beat a Westerosi army in an open field. All those numbers you posted for the Kingdoms are made up primarily of peasants with spears, not trained men at arms.




This myth needs to die:


http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/91171-come-into-my-castle-the-ways-of-warfare-in-westeros-updated-and-psa-regarding-troop-quality/


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Has she broken slavery though? She certainly has tried but the slaver cities she left behind are slaver cities still. I don't deny that Daenerys has the best of intentions, and does receive an undue amount of flack, but actions, not intentions are what matters and nothing she has done has caused a change for good. She simply threw the area into disarrLooki

Looking at how the slave in Volantis talked about Dany to Tyrion it seems pretty much that she has become a beacon of hope for all slave in a slaver's city,no reason for a city formed by former slaves not to support this

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