Mafia Game 78 - Tales of the Malazan Book of the Fallen

[House Yronwood]

Why are you kicking yourself? Spoilers? Wanted to start reading with a clean opinion slate? (Haven't read the review yet and don't know if I want to.)

Spoilers. Some could turn out to be relatively inane but there's one that particularly irked me even though they didn't name names.

Review itself was fairly neutral -- didn't praise it, didn't pan it.

[House Westerling]

Spoilers. Some could turn out to be relatively inane but there's one that particularly irked me even though they didn't name names.

Review itself was fairly neutral -- didn't praise it, didn't pan it.

:worried: Didn't praise it? Thanks for the spoiler warning. I'll stay clear of the review.

And COME ON night action people who haven't submitted yet. You're sucking the life out of me.

[House Velaryon]

well there better be fucking praise. no fuck it, my expectations are still high ._.

[House Frey]

Just popping in from my phone at a dinner party, but to answer Trull's question: if it's not among those four, then Toc and Silchas. Toc is mostly just gut--I feel like he's been a bit low-key this game (unfortunately, some of this is squirrel-based, and I feel like his keeping out of the fray might actually be a null tell for meta reasons). Silchas is because he hasn't done much this game since escaping the lynch. I was initially pleased to see that he was actually contributing opinions (which kind of nullified some of my objections with his D1 play), but his points have been safe and not particularly insightful today. And admittedly, he was relatively late on Dassem's wagon, so it's not impossible they were distancing.

I'm not 100% sure Gruntle isn't a "wolf in sheep's clothing," but...meh. My gut is that based on his reactions, he feels innocent. The way he cleared me based on my reaction to Dassem's lynch felt like an innocent thought process (although maybe I'm biased). I'm not sure if that's the "innocent towntell" he swears is there.

Trull, to be honest, had you not done a hundred other things that looked innocent, I would be super-paranoid of you for switching to Rake on the logic of trusting Gruntle's instincts (I'm not confusing you with Oron, am I? It's too much effort to check from my phone without closing the post window), only to turn around and say, "Gruntle was wrong about Rake? Maybe he's scum." Pretty much everyone suspected Rake to some extent.

Icarium, you didn't answer my questions. (Okay, fine, those questions were directed to Tehol, anyway. But my point: I don't believe your "I don't have balls, although sone other FM might" excuse, because I think that's a blatantly untrue characterization of your play.)

Tehol, actually, I can say with total certainty thateven if Fiddler is scum, I don't in the slightest that was a deliberate set-up to make you look guilty. That sounds more than a little tinfoil hat. IQhen you have time to answer my questions, please do. I'd also be interested in hearing what you have say about me, considering you made cases on players who were outside that list of four players--although obviously, I understand if you want to wait until night is over for the last part, in case you waste your breath on a corpse.

[House Targaryen]

Daybreak.

Your sleep was restless, and you're still tired when you wake. The stress is beginning to wear you down. And it's only day three.

How much more of this can you stand?

You glance around the camp. Count the others. Fiddler, Gruntle, Silchas, Onos, Karsa, Trull, Quick . . .

Wait.

Karsa?

Something doesn't seem right. The Toblakai is seated by the ashes of the fire, but he isn't awake. He's slumped over, head bowed. And what's that sticking out of his back? An axe?

You approach slowly, not wanting to startle the man. But your caution proves unnecessary. The giant is dead.

The loss of his substantial presence is felt immediately. A wound that cuts deep. You had felt such strong satisfaction after bringing Dassem Ultor to justice. But now Kalam, Apsalar, Rake, and Karsa have all died in rapid succession, each one more innocent than the last. A feeling of impending doom washes over you. Perhaps things aren't going so well after all.

Witness.

-------------

Karsa Orlong (Weekapaug) was innocent.

It is day 3.

12 players remain: Fanderay, Fiddler, Gruntle, Icarium, Onos Toolan, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

12 players have not voted: Fanderay, Fiddler, Gruntle, Icarium, Onos Toolan, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

[House Velaryon]

I'm not 100% sure Gruntle isn't a "wolf in sheep's clothing," but...meh. My gut is that based on his reactions, he feels innocent. The way he cleared me based on my reaction to Dassem's lynch felt like an innocent thought process (although maybe I'm biased). I'm not sure if that's the "innocent towntell" he swears is there.

Lack of claim from Daseem, actually. I'd totally clear you as town like that as a FM. I also think I've been pretty damn pro-town but eh.

I'll re-read I guess, though maybe not that soon ._.

[House Yronwood]

Trull, to be honest, had you not done a hundred other things that looked innocent, I would be super-paranoid of you for switching to Rake on the logic of trusting Gruntle's instincts (I'm not confusing you with Oron, am I? It's too much effort to check from my phone without closing the post window), only to turn around and say, "Gruntle was wrong about Rake? Maybe he's scum." Pretty much everyone suspected Rake to some extent.

It was one of my reasons for voting Rake, sure, but the primary reason for voting him over Tehol was because he made no attempt to defend himself. I said Gruntle has raised in suspicion, but I'm still relatively convinced that we should continue our lynching of Tehol, Fiddler and Icar... Silchas may also join them, I'm not sure yet.

Not really surprised by the night kill.

[House Velaryon]

Not really surprised by the night kill.

Not *overly* disappointed at the same time, just to remove any linger doubts of why the FM would shoot the doctor claimed to protect. At least now we probably know it's true.

I've no concept of game balance in this site, but vig, doc and d'ivers doesn't *seem* unbalanced to me. I guess a small window scum d'ivers isn't too bad, but at the same time I'm not so sure.

[House Westerling]

Onos

*stares*

That one was for you Karsa.

[House Pommingham]

Karsa dead? Sorry, man, I liked you and very much trusted you (but I had inside knowledge). I am glad though, because this very much simplifies the analysis (and my current decision).

People may be wondering why the FM are not targeting me. I'll tell you why. I know exactly two facts: There is a healer. I am NOT him.

Yes, I fake healer claimed (come on, who would really claim to be a healer and actually be a healer :rolleyes: ) in order to draw heat away from the VPIs at the end of the first day (especially BQ). So sorry BQ, I cannot make you CI. However, I still think you are VPI. Even if the FM did not truly believe I was the healer, I thought they would probably talk themselves into killing me. I thought I would either die for the good cause or I thought that the REAL Healer (if he/she was smart) would understand what I was doing and heal me, leading to a no kill. WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED (except Karsa used a vigilante kill, which complicated the analysis). I assume that the healer is smart and this is what happened. :thumbsup: (I acknowledge the possibility that both the healer and the FM targeted the same person that is not me, but I personally find that very very unlikely given my "reveal.")

So I believe that someone out there knows I am CI. Though for the rest of you, I assume this is going to take some time to digest and may cause a bit of a circus diversion during the early part of the day (unfortunate but understandable).

Why didn't I reveal yesterday? No need. Clearing QB was super low risk (he's VPI). The real healer obviously understood what I was doing. Most importantly, the only people that knew I was lying were (i) me; (ii) the real healer; and (iii) the FM. So I could sit back and see if any of the FM tipped their hand. I believe there are some interesting posts on this last bit, but I won't call them all out now.

I'll just leave you with this:

We have a large pool of VPIs (me, QB, Sandy and maybe Gruntle and Trull). Let's not waste time. Sure, go do your re-reads, etc., but let's not be sheep and forget the events of day 1. We lynched an FM on day 1! That is the most critical fact in the game to date and the events of that lynch train and the morning of day 2 spinning it are the BEST sources of information to hunt FM.

Remaining in the pool are:

Fiddler

Tehol

Silchas

Yedarm

Incarium

Wolf Boy (though I'm guessing he gets another day pass)

(who am I missing?)

Let's put pressure on these people. Let's not leave pressure to the last hour! Fids is BY FAR the guiltiest looking. Let's get the train going. Hell, get two trains going if you want, but get off your butts and put the screws to the bad guys.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

12 players remain: Fanderay, Fiddler, Gruntle, Icarium, Onos Toolan, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

1 vote for Fiddler (Onos Toolan)

1 vote for Onos Toolan (Fiddler)

10 players have not voted: Fanderay, Gruntle, Icarium, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

[House Velaryon]

Why didn't I reveal yesterday? No need. Clearing QB was super low risk (he's VPI). The real healer obviously understood what I was doing. Most importantly, the only people that knew I was lying were (i) me; (ii) the real healer; and (iii) the FM. So I could sit back and see if any of the FM tipped their hand. I believe there are some interesting posts on this last bit, but I won't call them all out now.

Oh god I fucking love you.

[House Yronwood]

People may be wondering why the FM are not targeting me. I'll tell you why. I know exactly two facts: There is a healer. I am NOT him.

Yes, I fake healer claimed (come on, who would really claim to be a healer and actually be a healer :rolleyes: ) in order to draw heat away from the VPIs at the end of the first day (especially BQ). So sorry BQ, I cannot make you CI. However, I still think you are VPI. Even if the FM did not truly believe I was the healer, I thought they would probably talk themselves into killing me. I thought I would either die for the good cause or I thought that the REAL Healer (if he/she was smart) would understand what I was doing and heal me, leading to a no kill. WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED (except Karsa used a vigilante kill, which complicated the analysis). I assume that the healer is smart and this is what happened. :thumbsup: (I acknowledge the possibility that both the healer and the FM targeted the same person that is not me, but I personally find that very very unlikely given my "reveal.")

So I believe that someone out there knows I am CI. Though for the rest of you, I assume this is going to take some time to digest and may cause a bit of a circus diversion during the early part of the day (unfortunate but understandable).

Why didn't I reveal yesterday? No need. Clearing QB was super low risk (he's VPI). The real healer obviously understood what I was doing. Most importantly, the only people that knew I was lying were (i) me; (ii) the real healer; and (iii) the FM. So I could sit back and see if any of the FM tipped their hand. I believe there are some interesting posts on this last bit, but I won't call them all out now.

Or you know, the FM could have been hip to the fact that it makes no sense to claim healer night one and targeted someone else. I believe there is a CI out there, but I have my doubts it's you.

I don't know if your attempted ruse makes me feel better about you or not. It was very improbable that a FM would kill you night one, and also very probable that you'd eventually have to come clean; That might be a good claim for a FM to make.

But again, all this is just conspiracy theory on my part. I'm not quite at the point where I'm willing to vote based on my paranoia.

[House Pommingham]

Or you know, the FM could have been hip to the fact that it makes no sense to claim healer night one and targeted someone else. I believe there is a CI out there, but I have my doubts it's you.

I don't know if your attempted ruse makes me feel better about you or not. It was very improbable that a FM would kill you night one, and also very probable that you'd eventually have to come clean; That might be a good claim for a FM to make.

But again, all this is just conspiracy theory on my part. I'm not quite at the point where I'm willing to vote based on my paranoia.

Sure doubting is healthy in this game. But think it through logically also. You are an FM. Someone just revealed healer on night one offering to sacrifice himself for our two VPIs. Do you really risk going after one of those VPIs? Or do you go after the revealed healer even if you aren't sure if you believe him? Can you risk not targeting him? If you do not target the revealed healer, do you REALLY risk the no kill by going after the VPIs? I think not. You either target the healer or someone OTHER than the VPIs (someone on tier two of innocence) to make sure your kill is not wasted.

Now flip it and pretend you are the real healer? Who do you heal? You ONLY heal either (i) one of the two VPIs or (ii) me. There is no one else you heal. So for a CI to be out there (and we know there is because of the no kill + Karsa flipping innocent) and NOT be me, it means that the healer and the FM both disregarded my claim and both happened to pick the same VPI. I'm not saying that scenario is impossible. It's not. But it is very improbable. The FM should never be targeting those two VPI night 1.

[House Westerling]

:huh: Words fail. I wish there was a genital kick emoticon.

[House Westerling]

Thoughts? Anyone?

[House Pommingham]

It's Friday night, I'm guessing there won't be many people around.

What are your thoughts, Fids? Why don't we start with your explanation for your actions during the Dassem lynch. I made a case on you yesterday, which you ignored all day. Care to respond now?

[House Westerling]

It's Friday night, I'm guessing there won't be many people around.

What are your thoughts, Fids? Why don't we start with your explanation for your actions during the Dassem lynch. I made a case on you yesterday, which you ignored all day. Care to respond now?

There were 7 people reading not too long ago. I've got offspring. Friday night doesn't mean what it used to :(

I'd be happy to respond. Lemme dig up your case/questions. I wasn't ignoring anything on purpose. While I'm doing that would you address my suspicions about last night's lynch and you not switching back to Tehol even though you said you prefered her lynch to Rakes.

[House Pommingham]

Sure, but on mobile so will have to do from memory as opposed to re-reading your post and that part of the thread.

1) Unless I am misunderstanding your case, it only makes sense if I am Tehol's partner. Correct? Otherwise, why should I care whether Tehol or Rake is lynched.

2) If Tehol was my partner, why did I try to make her the competing lynch train to Rake for the hour or so before time expired? Just distancing? If that's the case, I probably would have jumped back on with 15 minutes to go when you arrived. Tehol still would not have been lynched (see 3 below) and I would have put even more distance in.

3) I honestly did not think there was time to make the switch back to Tehol. If there was more time left I would have. I was consistent all day in that my lynch order was Fids>Tehol>Silchas (though she was not a viable candidate later in the day)>Rake. If you re-read the posts you'll see I was on you until it was clear there was no momentum so I joined the short train on Tehol to try and make her the competing lynch to Rake. I spent a lot of effort trying to get others on the Tehol train (from the Incar train). This failed and Incar became the competing train. Between Incar and Rake, I thought Rake the better lynch so I switched. At that point it wasn't clear to me that there were enough willing people to get Rake lynched. It was very hectic down to the wire with QB trying to shift people onto Incar with a long post. And then you came out of left field to try and re-invigorate Tehol. IIRC, others were already dug in and saying they weren't switching anymore (Trull/Yedarm -- though I'm not positive if that was before or after your Tehol push). We just wouldn't have had the votes in time on Tehol, IMO, because I wasn't able to grow the Tehol train before then and your one last minute vote wasn't going to make it viable (the Tehol train was never just one vote away). So you saw my quite honestly frustrated post to you of "where were you 30 minutes ago"). I wasn't accusing you of lurking and being fake (in that post), I was only expressing my frustration that you came to the party a day late and a dollar short.

4) Even forget 2 and 3 above. Since your theory (I think depends on Tehol being guilty as well, switch your vote to Tehol and let's test that theory. She's still a high supsect on my list and I would love to see how competing lynch trains on her and you play out today.

(Tehol, apologies if you are a man, but I think of you as female.)

[House Westerling]

Sorry for delay. Things better here for now. I have done a re-read of the Dressam lynch mob through today and have lots of thoughts. I would normally do this in a better format but time does not permit.

Let me start by saying that I believe that Karsa is the vig. (However, the vig can be either a good or bad role this game, so he doesn't get a full pass from me forever. My gut says that the vig is good and the FM have the poisoner role though.) Therefore the Probably CI is Ben Quick. Congratulations! Or sorry, since you claim to have wanted to be nightkilled.

Ok, my thoughts from the re-read.

Tier 4 (least suspicious)

Ben Quick (Duh)

Karsa (Vigilante claim gets you the pass for now; plus you killed the Yedarm lynch train in post 369, which is ++ town points since it was the best competition for the Dressam lynch train)

Onus (Dude, I'm like totally the healer!)

Sandalath (put the critical train vote on Dressam (post 305), which is what snowballed everything. Really doubt an FM would have done that)

Tier 3

Trull (push to get Dressam killed gets you a pass today; for reasons I'll call gut for now, though, you are not in Tier 4 category)

Gruntle (work on the Dressam train gets you a pass today; the push to make Sandalath the competing lynch train over Dressam means this is a one day pass)

Tier 2

Toc (D'ivers claim gives you a pass for now, but you haven't done anything else in thread to make me want to give you a pass. Especially because you were absent during the lynch train and my gut says at least one of Dressam's partners was absent)

Yedarm (Gut says you are innocent, but see Toc entry about not being present during lynch train; the fact that you were the competing train gives you +town points)

Tier 1 (Most suspicious)

Anomander (Even Anamander agrees he should be here. Suspicious behavior during lynch train, but honestly I could see an innocent acting the same way, which is why you are at the top and not bottom of Tier 4)

Silchas (Do not at all like how you pressed the case for Yedarn as the alternate instead of Dressam, and only voted for Dressam when it became an inevitible you vs. him)

Tehol (post 352 SCREAMS FM. Everyone should go read it right now. You vote Silchas and say that you would also go either for Yedarm or Dressam BUT that's just wrong since you are going to bed and you are not coming back in time. Saying you would go either Yedarm or Dressam is pure FMish window dressing. You also get minus points for not being present during the lynch (see entry for Toc); finally, your gear shifting today in analyzing the lynch trains is pretty much what I'd expect from an FM that is behind the eight ball. Especially since you have directed attention towards people I don't think are suspicious and have TOTALLY IGNORED the most suspicious person).

Fiddler (makes perfect sense for Dressam's partner. He is the big pusher for Yedarm to be the competing lynch train and not Dressam (posts 354 and 362); he only gets off Yedarm when Karsa kills that train (post 372), but even then he tries to bring it back to life (post 378); Also today he is acting very FMish by trying to cast doubt on lots of people for weird reasons; to me it reads like an FM throwing a bunch of crap at the wall to see what will stick. He makes sense as either Tehol's partner or Silchas' partner.)

Anyway, I'm off to re-read the Fiddler lynch train unless the RL emergency re-emerges. Will let you know if anything interesting pops up. Bottom line though is I would be happy lynching anyone in Tier 4 today, but I have ranked everyone in order also.

Is this the case you are talking about? I thought why kept trying for Yedan was pretty clear. I straight up thought he was more likely to be guilty than Dessam. If I think or feel that person A is more suspicious than person B, I'm going to push like hell to person A lynched over person B if I believe there is even a remote chance of success. Count on it.

It was the same with last night's lynch. My lynch choices (of the 3 viable options) were Icar>Tehol>Rake. I tried for Ichar, but when that looked like a bust and things were looking grim for Rake I tried to do a compromise lynch on my next choice, Tehol. You had already said you'd prefer to lynch her. You should have jumped on that wagon. I sure as shit would have jumped if someone pushed for Icar at that point.