Mafia Game 78 - Tales of the Malazan Book of the Fallen

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

12 players remain: Fanderay, Fiddler, Gruntle, Icarium, Onos Toolan, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Silchas Ruin, Tehol Beddict, Togg, Trull Sengar, Yedan Derryg.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

4 votes for Fiddler (Onos Toolan, Fanderay, Yedan Derryg, Tehol Beddict)

1 vote for Tehol Beddict (Fiddler)

1 vote for Yedan Derryg (Silchas Ruin)

6 players have not voted: Gruntle, Icarium, Quick Ben, Sandalath Drukorlat, Togg, Trull Sengar.

[House Dalt]

Remove vote

Not ready to vote yet now.

[House Tyrell]

Basically, Yedan has been very unhelpful, hasn't put out too many opinions, has changed his mind on top suspects without telling us why and definitely has a connection with Icarium, another top suspect. Definitely think he could be FM and partners with Icarium.

I changed my mind on top suspects because they are... top suspects.%)

I suspect all of my top suspects and I have problems with which one I want to vote for right now.

About my connection with Icarium - it's just your paranoia. I would like to vote him or Fiddler instead of Rake previous day (right now Fiddler and Icarium are my top suspects, and further I will say why) but I had no ability to do it. I was afraid that Fiddler in the end of previous day was trying to spoil the lynch (I was nervous and there was a lot of my paranoia). And I was mixed up full previous day. I can't do strong logical conclusion made just by posts in day (firsly I have no experience in it). So, I did what I did. Sometimes with very bad explonations. Somtimes without them.%)

Resume: my main problem with him is that started day two by attacking Trull strongly, but then changed his mind very suddenly and without any explanation. I can't understand how an innocent player would turn around this way without any reason stated.

I explained that one. I found one post which mostly convinced me that Trull is inno. You can find it.

And he never interacted with Dassem and made only one post towards Tohel: "Don't feel so safe. Any minute the people can switch on you. If you crossed yourself from potentialy lynchable today, we didn't do that. 3 need just 5 to be 8. "

I have no ability to say something about Dassem. Firstly he was absent and then he was dead.%)

So Tehol says you are my partner and you say Tehol is my partner.

It's cool guys.%)

About Icarium and Fiddler. I said something about Fiddler, now about Icarium. He is not against Fiddler, as I can see. And he is just adding some his mind at allready top suspects. As Rake previous day and me today.

I do know that both of us are inno, so it looks...bad. I can't explain but I hope you got it and understood that it's bad.%)

[House Westerling]

Actually with the attempted kill on the 'healer'...*didn't* they fall for it?

I like where you seem to be going with this. Either they did fall for it (doubt it if even I picked up that Onos wasn't being truthful) or something is weird and the FM want us to think that they did fall for it. Maybe the night kill was forfeited for d'ivers?

Feels like we are missing something critical.

edit- typo

[House Wythers]

Tehol: starts with trusting Kalam and mistrusting Fiddler and Trull.

Discusses meta.

Votes Silchas after rereading him and left for critical time of lynching Dassem.

Calls Onos idiot for claiming healer - I think it looked inno at the point.

At the morning, admits he looks awful and wants to go for "Anomander Rake., Yedan Derryg, Toc, Apsalar" and possibly Trull (er, consisting with Yedan attacking Trull in about same time).

Wonders why Kalam was possible suspect for that day.

Discusses Kalam's kill a bit more, renews suspicions on Silchas because "he has to vote for Dassem" and "Kalam was after him right?"

Notes "lynching me would be pointless".

Discusses Fiddler and Anomander, votes Anomander.

Keep discussing Anomander for a while.

On Yedan: "There is nothing in his posts that points to his alignment in any way, shape or form. We need more from him today." Middle of the road exactly.

Slightly attacks Trull... It seems all my suspects want to attack Trull on some or other point.

Rereads Toc, with this resume: "Obviously Toc isn't going to be a viable lynch target today given he's the D'ivers, but I don't like him or his posts"

Discusses role distribution.

Again slighly attacks Trull, but insists that best lynch is Rake or Yedan.

To Yedan: "I'd like to hear your bad thinks. "

Again Attacks Trull, calls him defensive.

Answering to Gruntle: "Why am I above Yedan? I can understand the others, they were at least around and voted for Dassem. However, I can't understand why Yedan is less suspicious than me."

"I find Rake, Yedan and Toc bad at this time"

Says to Togg he is voting Rake... sorry, but I don't see such a vote in my notes.

Wants to reread Fiddler, argues against me suspect him by attrition.

Does rereading Fiddler, thinks Fidller is guily but doesn't vote him., preferring staying at Rake.

Pushes Fiddler more, arguing his guilt with Anomander.

Agrees with Anomander's opinion on me.

Attacks Silchas.

"By the way, is there any reason we've completely ignored Yedan today? I can't remember anything he has done that has been helpful and he was certainly a suspect yesterday. "

Tiers: "Tier 1: Rake, Fiddler, Yedan, Icarium, Silchas

Tier 2: Sandalath, Toc

Tier 3: Onos, QB, Trull, Gruntle, Karsa"

Another tiers: "Rake

Fiddler

Yedan

Icarium

Not me."

Disagrees with Onus about me being unlynchable yesterday.

Discusses Fiddler again.

Claims roleless.

Is willing to vote both Rake and me. but prefers Rake.

Still obscessed with Fiddler.

Again obscessed with Fiddler.

States it was evident that Onus wasn't a healer.

Discusses balance.

Makes a case on Fiddler and votes him.

Discusses balance again.

Slightly attacks QB. Then more strongly attacks QB. Then, drops it, with rereading Yedan and concluding: "Basically, Yedan has been very unhelpful, hasn't put out too many opinions, has changed his mind on top suspects without telling us why and definitely has a connection with Icarium, another top suspect. Definitely think he could be FM and partners with Icarium."

Removes vote.

[House Tyrell]

@Icarium: And... what?:)

It's good but also it will be good to get some conclusions from it.

[House Wythers]

Ok; as I expected, both Yedan and Tehol look rather bad in reread and probably partnered. I'd be happy to lynch either of them. But, since I have one vote only, it will be on Yedan. I still can be wrong about the partnership and I suspect Yedan more.

[House Wythers]

I explained that one. I found one post which mostly convinced me that Trull is inno. You can find it.

No I can't. Give me a reference.

[House Tyrell]

No I can't. Give me a reference.

Counting the fact that this post was quoted by my partner Tehol:)

Here is it.

And, while you are online, what do you think about Fiddler?

[House Dalt]

Ok; as I expected, both Yedan and Tehol look rather bad in reread and probably partnered. I'd be happy to lynch either of them. But, since I have one vote only, it will be on Yedan. I still can be wrong about the partnership and I suspect Yedan more.

How about you tell me why I'm looking bad? What about my posts or my actions makes you think I'm evil? Just recapping my posts and saying I look bad means nothing.

Also, would appreciate you quoting my posts if you're going to reread. Otherwise, it's very easy for you to misinterpret them and then you make me have to go back and check to see if you're actually interpreting it correctly.

[House Tyrell]

How about you tell me why I'm looking bad? What about my posts or my actions makes you think I'm evil? Just recapping my posts and saying I look bad means nothing.

I agree, my partner. I also want to get from Icarium some conclusions from rereading you, as I said earlier.

Edit: Changed some words with not changing the sense.

[House Wythers]

Counting the fact that this post was quoted by my partner Tehol:)

Here is it.

So you and your partner Tehol agreed on Trull being inno because of that post... posted ages before you and you partner Tehol tried to accuse Trull? Ok.

And, while you are online, what do you think about Fiddler?

Fiddler is close to PI, from my PoV. I stated it already during this day and explained why. I don't see a killer symping so strongly to an innocent (Silchas), it would be beyond ny understanding.

Why do you ask?

[House Tyrell]

So you and your partner Tehol agreed on Trull being inno because of that post... posted ages before you and you partner Tehol tried to accuse Trull? Ok.

It was just me. About my partner I need to reread to understand why he changed his mind. Why do you give my words to Tehol? it seems as if you are making new arguments against us (me and my partner).

Fiddler is close to PI, from my PoV. I stated it already during this day and explained why. I don't see a killer symping so strongly to an innocent (Silchas), it would be beyond ny understanding.

Why do you ask?

I suspect both of you and is interesting whether you can be partners.:)

[House Wythers]

How about you tell me why I'm looking bad? What about my posts or my actions makes you think I'm evil? Just recapping my posts and saying I look bad means nothing.

Let's leave this to unpredjusted readers. If any of them will disagree you look bad obectively because of what you've post not because I said so - I'll argue.

Also, would appreciate you quoting my posts if you're going to reread.

Well, if you think I distorted your words - tell me where.

[House Wythers]

It was just me. About my partner I need to reread to understand why he changed his mind. Why do you give my words to Tehol?

Er? Initially you said that Tehol changed his mind on Trull because of that post of yours... and now you say you don't know why Tehol changed his mind? Er?

I suspect both of you and is interesting whether you can be partners.:)

I suspect both of you and I am absolutely sure you can be partners.

[House Yronwood]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced Yeden is innocent; I'm almost willing to stake the game on it:

He came in day 2 attacking me for my hesitance to vote Dassem. I called him on it and it became evidently clear that he hadn't read the rest of day 1 since he'd left the thread. When he did reread my posts, he reversed his opinion.

To me it sounds like a genuine mistake on his part; One that also probably wouldn't have happened if he had partners discussing the lynch situation in their forum. Not to mention it's a catch he probably wouldn't have been looking for if he was guilty.

That and I just have trouble seeing a FM take the position he did on day one with regards to participation. It's an explanation that while not particularly helpful, I completely buy from an innocent; A FM would have felt the need to come up with something else.

To me, it looks like people are picking a soft target to throw into the lynch pool to perhaps stave off their own lynch. I'm going to take a closer look at whose doing this, and chances are they'll be rising greatly on my suspect list.

[Gertrude]

shit

[House Upcliff]

I'm feeling worse about Icarium today. It feels like he is not trying and is grabbing at easy points. (I think, he doesn't really conclude anything about Tehol)

To clear up some things about my role. I already said it was always destined to be at the beginning of day 2. It will last 2 days (so tomorrow I will be Toc). Two is the most it will split into. There is nothing else that can trigger this state, so once I am back as Toc, I will never be the wolves again.

I will also be absent for the end of the day ... again. There is a small, very small chance I can manage to get here right around deadline, but it's not likely. I will try though.

[House Pommingham]

Re: Sandy reveal. Let's just go through the whole analysis.

First, I do not think Sandy and Silchas are partners. Sandy was the key momentum vote to lynch Dressam. If her goal was to save her partner Silchas, who had a big lynch train going, it does not make sense to swing the competing lynch train on to your OTHER partner. So, I am ignoring this possibility.

Second, the semi-finder role can be aligned with either good or evil. So it's possible that Sandy is evil and NOT partnered with Silchas, but actually did use her one-shot power on Silchas last night. It makes sense that the FM would be healer hunting in the night. Ok, if this situation is true, why announce results? Sandy was PI in most people's books. Silchas was not. So Sandy gets little benefit from the announcement (PI to VPI) and the cost is pretty staggering (removing Silchas from the limited suspect pool in which her partner is hiding). So this scenario also makes no sense.

I am left to conclude that Sandy is innocent and Silchas was "inactive" last night. So my pools are:

Innocent - Onus

VPI - QB, Sandy, Silchas

PI - Gruntle, Trull

Suspect - Fiddler, Yedan, Icarium, Tehol, Wolf Boy

Sandy's reveal also has Game Mechanics implications: A good healer, vigilante and a one-shot semi-finder sounds fine to balance against the FM. Adding a good D'ivers is a stretch for me. Now it's possible that all of our FM are souped up (guard and poisoner etc). Also there is a big unknown about the undisclosed role/power/event. So, I am not dead set on thinking Wolf Boy is evil. But I think we HAVE to conclude that Sandy's reveal makes Wolf Boy more likely to be evil.

ETA: Cross posted with Toc who has alleviated some of my fears.

[House Tyrell]

Bhah. Icarium,

It would be interesting for everybody to get something from you. Not just rereading but also making conclusions from that.

But your rejection also means that you are not going to help innos.

I'm already ready to vote against both of Fiddler and Icarium. I want to be D'ivers.%)